Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Tx15

Stephen Beban

@StephenBeban

2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter

Methodology:

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.

#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…

Read 111 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

The @NRCC finally starts to unload its war chest in earnest, dropping $14 million in 23 races.

It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1582768648187281412

Today's NRCC buys (1/2)

#ME02 $1,348,132
#OH13 $1,228,652
#MN02 $1,090,377
#CA22 $973,825
#WA08 $876,994
#PA17 $848,163
#NH01 $787,150
#CA27 $782,726
#CA45 $778,488
#PA07 $690,861
#NY19 $615,810
#PA08 $572,138
#IA03 $528,673
#NM02 $521,473
#AZ06 $459,696
#NE02 $440,622

Today's NRCC buys (2/2)

#NJ07 $361,411
#MI08 $305,405
#WI03 $302,698
#TX28 $149,853
#TX15 $142,658
#NY17 $112,060
#VA07 $93,710

Read 4 tweets

Patrick Svitek

@PatrickSvitek

On media call, Abbott campaign says it expects turnout to go over 10M, as high as 10.6 or as low as 9.8.

2020 turnout was 11.3, 2018 was 8.4 #TXGOV

"Every indication we have, we're gonna win Tarrant County," Abbott strategist Dave Carney says. He adds they "feel very good" about Tarrant, but "it's competitive, not trying to slough if off, it's going to be a battle." #TXGOV

Carney says they feel "spectacularly positive" about South Texas. On the three targeted congressional races, he says: "We can win all three of them today. They're all within victory." #TXGOV #TX15 #TX28 #TX34

Read 5 tweets

Joel Weingart

@JoelWeingart_

🚨 AXIOS: Democrats are planning to cancel their ad buy supporting ⁦Brad Pfaff in #WI03 and Michelle Vallejo in #TX15

Here is Vulnerable Rep. Tom O'Halleran screaming for help

Difference between a Republican & Democrat candidate

Read 7 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

A pair of major filings from the @dccc and @NRCC within seconds of one another...the DCCC dropping $16.8 million in 33 races and the NRCC still holding back and deploying $5.59M in 9 races.

The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.

Today's DCCC buys (1/3)

#MI07 $1,023,595
#WA08 $914,082
#CA13 $887,013
#TX28 $877,736
#PA07 $822,504
#VA07 $738,010
#CO08 $724,286
#NC01 $678,431
#NH01 $670,977
#OH13 $624,694
#MN02 $603,123
#NY19 $578,924
#GA02 $577,265
#AZ04 $574,484
#OR05 $568,706

Today's DCCC buys (2/3)

#IL17 $564,045
#OH01 $562,891
#OR06 $517,844
#PA17 $515,834
#VA02 $491,375
#MI03 $474,695
#NY22 $434,336
#MI08 $426,641
#KS03 $406,528
#NM02 $356,148
#PA08 $324,212
#IA03 $202,940
#NV03 $192,497
#OR04 $189,071
#NV01 $174,997
#CA49 $59,999

Read 6 tweets

RA News

@RANewsTX

Today, the Texas Senate is expected to consider the committee substitute for #SB6, the proposed map for Texas' 38 congressional districts, and several floor amendments.

We'll be live-tweeting on this 🧵 once it begins. Follow along: tlcsenate.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.ph…
#txlege #redistricting

Here's what #SB6, the proposed Congressional map (PLANC2116), currently looks like as voted out by the Senate #Redistricting Committee.

Viewer: dvr.capitol.texas.gov/Congress/0/PLA… #txlege

There were 12 pre-filed amendments for #SB6, the proposed TX Congressional map: dvr.capitol.texas.gov/Congress/44 #txlege #redistricting

https://twitter.com/RANewsTX/status/1445067023344615432

Read 53 tweets

RA News

@RANewsTX

The Senate #Redistricting Committee is meeting now to hear invited and public testimony on the new proposed Congressional maps, #SB6. We'll be live-tweeting on this 🧵. Follow along

Here's the map: dvr.capitol.texas.gov/Congress/14/PL…

Live-stream: tlcsenate.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.ph…
#txlege

.@joanhuffman says they'll start w/invited witnesses, who were recommended by Senate Redistricting Cmte members. She says next week, the cmte will vote on amendments and #SB6 overall. #txlege

1st invited witness is Gloria Leal, #Redistricting Chair for State @LULAC & on behalf of Pres. @Domingotexas.

Her #SB6 testimony will be somewhat general since they haven't had enough time to fully analyze the maps but plan on submitting more testimony/amendments later. #txlege

Read 38 tweets

Nathaniel Rakich

@baseballot

Texas Republicans' proposed congressional map is up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…

@FiveThirtyEight The map shores up #TX07, #TX28, #TX32, and #TX34 for Dems and adds a new solid-blue #TX37 in Austin. In exchange, #TX02, #TX03, #TX06, #TX10, #TX21, #TX22, #TX23, #TX24, and #TX31 are made safer for their Republican incumbents.

Dem Rep. Vicente Gonzalez's #TX15 also becomes a bit redder, but still a tossup, under this map. I wonder if he moves over to the safe blue #TX34, whence Rep. Filemon Vela is retiring. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…

Read 4 tweets

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

Wow. This isn't even as aggressive a map as I expected from Texas Rs. It could plausibly be 24R-14D, w/ the chance Rs add seats in the Rio Grande Valley & Dems gain in DFW burbs over the course of the 2020s.

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1442497118342508546

A few early highlights/impressions:
- a new Dem #TX37 in Austin
- a new GOP #TX38 in Houston (for Wesley Hunt?)
- no new Hispanic majority seat (lawsuit?)
- #TX15 Gonzalez (D) made redder
- #TX03 Taylor (R) & #TX24 Van Duyne (R) not shored up quite as much as I'd have expected

Another surprise: this GOP proposal doesn't shore up #TX21 Rep. Chip Roy (R) by nearly as much as it could have. He's still got a chunk of Travis Co.

The much bigger winners: #TX02 Crenshaw, #TX10 McCaul, #TX22 Nehls, #TX25 Williams, #TX31 Carter.

Read 6 tweets

Patrick Svitek

@PatrickSvitek

Proposed Texas congressional map is out: data.capitol.texas.gov/dataset/cf8703… #txlege

The two new seats go to the Austin and Houston areas

.@RepMcCaul loses Harris County in #TX10

Read 16 tweets

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

TEXAS: Republicans face a redistricting dilemma. They want to win both the state's new seats, but also need to shore up all *nine* of their incumbents who sit in districts where Biden took 47%+.

The likely solution? Rs draw a new *Democratic* district in Austin. Here's why...

Right now, the TX delegation is 23R-13D. But because Rs currently have the Austin metro area cracked seven ways (below), there are three R incumbents (Roy, Carter, McCaul) sitting in fast-growing Austin-area districts that are unsustainably trending left.

Drawing a new 75%+ Biden "vote sink" district in Austin (below) - as well as packing Dem voters into Rep. Lizzie Fletcher's (D) #TX07 in Houston and Rep. Colin Allred's (D) #TX32 in Dallas - could resolve the GOP's immediate problems all around the state.

Read 7 tweets

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

Texas is set to gain three seats, and Republicans will likely try to expand their current 23R-13D edge to a 26R-13D edge - all while adding at least one new Hispanic majority seat and a new Dem seat in Austin. Here's how...

First, Rs would "pack" the districts held by Houston Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D) #TX07 and Dallas Rep. Collin Allred (D) #TX32 w/ Dems, converting Fletcher's seat into a Hispanic majority seat. That would ease the creation of two new safe suburban R seats, #TX38 and #TX39.

Next, instead of dividing Austin six ways, Rs would create a new overwhelmingly blue Travis Co. seat (#TX37 here). The tradeoff? It would protect surrounding R districts against heavy D vote growth along the I-35 corridor for the next decade.

Read 5 tweets

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

Of the nation's current 435 House districts, 226 voted for Trump in '16 and 209 voted for Clinton.

Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.

Here are the 12 Trump '16 districts I can say with confidence Biden has flipped blue so far:

#AZ01
#GA06
#GA07
#MN02
#NE02
#NH01
#NJ05
#NJ11
#PA17
#TX24
#VA02
#VA07

And the two Clinton '16 districts Trump has flipped red so far:

#FL26
#TX23

Here are the 11 districts that I'm still not 100% certain about ('16 winner):

#CA48 (Clinton)
#IL14 (Trump)
#IL17 (Trump)
#MI11 (Trump)
#NV03 (Trump)
#NJ03 (Trump)
#NY18 (Trump)
#NY19 (Trump)
#OH01 (Trump)
#TX15 (Clinton)
#TX28 (Clinton)

I'd be open to anyone's math on these.

Read 4 tweets

͏Postcards4USA

@postcards4USA

Check it out!
ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
#Congress2020 Govs AGs SoS
Postcards (Print&Share)& Donations Links
#PostcardsforAmerica
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets&Posts for each Candidate
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
FB Albums facebook.com/pg/postcards4U…
Mega-THREAD

ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD

https://twitter.com/postcards4USA/status/1284568648204652544

#PostcardsforAmerica

ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:

https://twitter.com/postcards4USA/status/1300088955526934528

Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica

Read 51 tweets

͏Postcards4USA

@postcards4USA

Check it out!
ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
#Congress2020 Govs AGs SoS
Postcards (Print & Share!) & Links to Follow & Support!
#PostcardsforAmerica
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets&Posts for each Candidate
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
FB Albums facebook.com/pg/postcards4U…

https://twitter.com/postcards4USA/status/1284568648204652544

#PostcardsforAmerica

ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:

https://twitter.com/postcards4USA/status/1300088955526934528

Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica

Read 51 tweets

͏Postcards4USA

@postcards4USA

Check it out!
THREAD of all the Democratic Candidates!
50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs, SoS
With Postcards & Links to Follow & Support!
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets & Posts for each Candidate here
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
FB Albums: facebook.com/pg/postcards4U…

https://twitter.com/postcards4USA/status/1284568648204652544

#PostcardsforAmerica

ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:

https://twitter.com/postcards4USA/status/1300088955526934528

Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica

Read 51 tweets

͏Postcards4USA

@postcards4USA

All hands on deck!
On #PostcardsforAmerica website
All Democratic Candidates for ALL 50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs & SoS
Links (& Postcards) to Follow & Support:
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
& ➡️ postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…

Update Sep 12
mega-THREAD

https://twitter.com/postcards4USA/status/1284568648204652544

#PostcardsforAmerica

ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:

https://twitter.com/postcards4USA/status/1300088955526934528

Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica

Read 50 tweets

͏Postcards4USA

@postcards4USA

Want to check out all Democratic Candidates?
Pages on the #PostcardsforAmerica website with all Democratic Candidates for ALL 50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs & SoS
Postcards & Links to Follow & Support:
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
& ➡️ postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…

& follow @NDLB2020

https://twitter.com/postcards4USA/status/1284568648204652544

#PostcardsforAmerica

ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:

https://twitter.com/postcards4USA/status/1300088955526934528

Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica

Read 50 tweets

Craig Caplan

@CraigCaplan

House members will vote by proxy for the 1st time in chamber's 231-yr history beginning Wed. House clerk posted letters from mbrs who will not be physically present on House floor for votes due to COVID-19 pandemic & have given their proxies to other mbrs.
clerkpreview.house.gov/ProxyLetter#Ac…

1st term #CA39 Democratic @RepGilCisneros has designated his voting proxy to 1st term #PA06 Democratic @RepHoulahan.

3rd term #VA08 Democratic @RepDonBeyer, who represents one of the closest House districts to Capitol Hill, will vote by proxy for 7th term Democratic #TN09 @RepCohen, chair of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution, Civil Rights, and Civil Liberties.

Read 59 tweets

Puesto Loco™

@PuestoLoco

.#ComplicitCongress THREAD:
ALL Dem House Reps who enable Trump by NOT supporting #ImpeachmentInquiry.
Alphabetical by state. Plz RT & call them.

#ComplicitCongress
A minority of Dem House Reps DON’T support #Impeachment Inquiry:
#AL07 @RepTerriSewell
#AZ01 @TomOhalleran
#CO07 @RepPerlmutter
#CT01 @RepJohnLarson
#CT02 @RepJoeCourtney
#CT03 @RosaDeLauro
#CT05 @RepJahanaHayes
#FL05 @RepAlLawsonJr
#FL07 @RepStephMurphy

#ComplicitCongress
A minority of Dem House Reps DON’T support #Impeachment Inquiry:
#FL13 @RepCharlieCrist
#FL14 @USRepKCastor
#FL20 @RepHastingsFL
#FL21 @RepLoisFrankel
#FL23 @DWSTweets
#FL24 @RepWilson
#FL27 @RepShalala

Read 15 tweets

Puesto Loco™

@PuestoLoco

Call & tell these AL & AZ Reps to STOP enabling Trump & being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry;
#AL07 @RepTerriSewell 202-225-2665
Arizona
#AZ01 @TomOhalleran 202-225-3361

Call & tell these California Reps to STOP enabling Trump by being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry:

#CA05 @RepThompson 202-225-3311
#CA07 @RepBera 202-225-5716
#CA09 @RepMcNerney 202-225-1947
#CA10 @RepJoshHarder 202-225-4540
#CA12 @SpeakerPelosi 202-225-4965

Call & tell these California Reps to STOP enabling Trump & being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry:

#CA16 @RepJimCosta 202-225-3341
#CA18 @RepAnnaEshoo 202-225-8104
#CA20 @RepJimmyPanetta 202-225-2861
#CA21 @RepTJCox 202-225-4695

Read 29 tweets

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