Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #MI08
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This is a spreadsheet of Cook Report races which I made based on currently reported results (9am Wed).
+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning
Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.
#Election2022
+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning
Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.
#Election2022
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
The @NRCC is out with what's likely it's final major buy ahead of the election, dropping $19.5 million in 29 House races and finally pulling ahead of their 2020 pace, logging $84.4 million in general election IEs.
Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.
*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65.
There's the spending boom I was waiting for...the NRCC drops $19.27 million on 31 House races, pulling ahead of its 2020 pace and adding the Biden +20% #PA12 to the board as targeted seat #64, backing Mike Doyle for retiring 14-term Dem Mike Doyle's seat.
The Democratic House Majority PAC goes up with $17.47 million in ads across 40 districts, including the first spending by any of the big four committees in Josh Harder's #CA09, bringing the number of targeted House seats to an even 60.
The @NRCC finally starts to unload its war chest in earnest, dropping $14 million in 23 races.
It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
The Democratic House Majority PAC's weekly independent expenditure dump adds another $9.08 million in 34 House races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
A pair of major filings from the @dccc and @NRCC within seconds of one another...the DCCC dropping $16.8 million in 33 races and the NRCC still holding back and deploying $5.59M in 9 races.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
What if NY's Dem House map wasn't blocked in court & FL+OH GOP gerrymanders were?
See:
NY D map davesredistricting.org/join/22e2010f-…
Nonpartisan OH map
davesredistricting.org/join/c0c55ef9-…
FL legislature GOP map blocked by DeSantis davesredistricting.org/join/a7087256-…
Fully nonpartisan FL map
davesredistricting.org/join/483818cf-…
See:
NY D map davesredistricting.org/join/22e2010f-…
Nonpartisan OH map
davesredistricting.org/join/c0c55ef9-…
FL legislature GOP map blocked by DeSantis davesredistricting.org/join/a7087256-…
Fully nonpartisan FL map
davesredistricting.org/join/483818cf-…
In reality, Biden won 226 House seats & the median #MI08 by 2% (his national margin was 4.5%)
With the NY Dem map, OH nonpartisan map, & FL lege GOP map, Biden wins 231 seats & the median #CO08 by 4.6%
Add the nonpartisan FL map & Biden wins 234 seats & the median #PA17 by 5.8%
With the NY Dem map, OH nonpartisan map, & FL lege GOP map, Biden wins 231 seats & the median #CO08 by 4.6%
Add the nonpartisan FL map & Biden wins 234 seats & the median #PA17 by 5.8%
Had NY Dems' gerrymander not been struck down 4-3, had the Ohio GOP's gerrymander been struck down & redrawn before the election instead of delayed past 2022, & had FL GOP lawmakers not caved to DeSantis, the national congressional map's median seat could've had no partisan bias
Very exciting news: Daily Kos Elections has calculated the results of the 2020 presidential election for all of the new, post-redistricting congressional districts that will be used in the November midterms! dkel.ec/3RG5Qou
Data for all 435 districts is available in a single chart, right here. These #s reflect how the 2020 election *would* have gone under the new lines.
We also include data for predecessor districts so that you can see how each seat has changed dkel.ec/3F2Vtpq
We also include data for predecessor districts so that you can see how each seat has changed dkel.ec/3F2Vtpq
There's an *incredible* wealth of information to be gleaned. This chart, for instance, shows the small number of "crossover" districts: Just 14 Dems represent Trump seats while 15 GOPers sit in Biden seats. This is near historic lows
NO side leads in Kansas 66-34 with 45% of AP's estimated vote in. Much of populous Johnson County; no side up 72-28 with 70% reporting there; Laura Kelly got 55% there in 2018.
The AP has called #MIGOV GOP primary for Tudor Dixon. The conservative commentator was an also-ran until 5 opponents thrown off ballot, now GOP's nominee in huge race against Dem Gretchen Whitmer.
Latest votes were bad for Kobach. With 34% of estimated vote in, state Sen. Kellie Warren leads him 40-37 in GOP #KSAG primary.
Thread: which party is "ahead" in redistricting? In my view, it's close to a wash. But the truth is, it depends which metric you use.
As @Nate_Cohn has alluded, tracking by district partisanship (slight Dem gain) differs from tracking by seat control (neutral/slight GOP gain).
As @Nate_Cohn has alluded, tracking by district partisanship (slight Dem gain) differs from tracking by seat control (neutral/slight GOP gain).
New Jersey's new map is a perfect illustration. By @CookPolitical PVI (a measure of districts' 16/20 prez performance vs. national result), three seats have gone from R-leaning to D-leaning: #NJ03, #NJ05 and #NJ11.
Meanwhile, one seat moves from D-leaning to R-leaning: #NJ07.
Meanwhile, one seat moves from D-leaning to R-leaning: #NJ07.
By district partisanship metrics, that sounds like a great deal for Dems. And it mostly is!
However, Dems currently hold *all four* of these seats. That means the new map's most likely practical outcome in 2022 is still a Dem loss of one seat (9D-3R, down from 10D-2R in 2020).
However, Dems currently hold *all four* of these seats. That means the new map's most likely practical outcome in 2022 is still a Dem loss of one seat (9D-3R, down from 10D-2R in 2020).
New: Michigan's independent commission votes to adopt "Chestnut" plan, which would've split 7-6 Biden in 2020, a slight improvement for Dems over the 8-6 Trump split on the current GOP-drawn map.
However, Reps. Andy Levin (D) & Dan Kildee (D) get more vulnerable, while Elissa Slotkin (D) remains vulnerable in Lansing and Rep. Peter Meijer (R) could still win a Biden +9 Grand Rapids seat.
Bottom line: if 2022 is a great GOP year, this map could be 9R-4D (vs. 7D-7R now).
Bottom line: if 2022 is a great GOP year, this map could be 9R-4D (vs. 7D-7R now).
The new MI map features 5 Solid GOP and 4 Solid Dem seats. New @CookPolitical ratings for the four remaining seats:
#MI04 Meijer (R) - Toss Up
#MI07 Slotkin (D) - Toss Up
#MI08 Kildee (D) - Toss Up
#MI10 NEW SEAT - Likely R
#MI04 Meijer (R) - Toss Up
#MI07 Slotkin (D) - Toss Up
#MI08 Kildee (D) - Toss Up
#MI10 NEW SEAT - Likely R
MICHIGAN: is shrinking from 14 to 13 seats, and w/ a new citizens' commission, few incumbents are safe. Somewhat ironically, *Dems* might have more to lose switching from the current GOP gerrymander (left) to a more compact plan (example, right). Here's why...
Speaker's election underway. Conducted aloud on House floor, alphabetically by member-elect surname.
Winner needs majority of members-elect voting for a candidate by surname. Can win with fewer than 218.
Pelosi, McCarthy formally nominated, but members-elect can vote for anyone
Winner needs majority of members-elect voting for a candidate by surname. Can win with fewer than 218.
Pelosi, McCarthy formally nominated, but members-elect can vote for anyone
Blue Dog Rep. Jim Cooper (D-TN) voted for Pelosi for speaker for the 1st time since 2009.
Cooper voted "present" in 2019 and for Tim Ryan in 2017, Colin Powell in both 2015 elections and in 2013, and Heath Shuler in 2011. #tn05
Cooper voted "present" in 2019 and for Tim Ryan in 2017, Colin Powell in both 2015 elections and in 2013, and Heath Shuler in 2011. #tn05
Rep. Jason Crow (D-CO), who voted for Tammy Duckworth for speaker as a freshman in 2019, voted for Pelosi after an easy re-election win in #co06
Based on a variety of number-crunching sources, esp. @DKElections, it looks like there were at most 16 districts out of 435 that split their tickets between president/House in '20 - likely an all-time low.
For perspective, there were 83 such districts in '08 and 35 in '16.
For perspective, there were 83 such districts in '08 and 35 in '16.
Biden/R districts (9):
#CA21 Valadao
#CA25 Garcia
#CA39 Kim
#CA48 Steel
#FL27 Salazar
#NE02 Bacon
#NY24 Katko
#PA01 Fitzpatrick
#TX24 Van Duyne
Trump/D districts (7/8?):
#IL17 Bustos
#IA03 Axne
#ME02 Golden
#MI08 Slotkin
#NJ03 Kim
#NY22 Brindisi (?)
#PA08 Cartwright
#WI03 Kind
#CA21 Valadao
#CA25 Garcia
#CA39 Kim
#CA48 Steel
#FL27 Salazar
#NE02 Bacon
#NY24 Katko
#PA01 Fitzpatrick
#TX24 Van Duyne
Trump/D districts (7/8?):
#IL17 Bustos
#IA03 Axne
#ME02 Golden
#MI08 Slotkin
#NJ03 Kim
#NY22 Brindisi (?)
#PA08 Cartwright
#WI03 Kind
Correction to first tweet: at most 17, if Brindisi (D) prevails in #NY22. Would still be less than half of the 35 in 2016.
Ballots are now being distributed to fill the vacancy.
Sharon Baseman, from Oakland County, has been elected to fill the vacancy of Michigan's 16th elector. Receiving 15 votes from the other electors. #ElectoralCollege
In their oath Electors swear 3 things: 1️⃣ to uphold the constitution of the United States 2️⃣ to uphold the constitution of Michigan & 3️⃣ perform the duties of their office (elector of President & Vice President of the United States). #ElectoralCollege
JUST IN: @DetroitChamber PAC has endorsed @SenGaryPeters' re-election over businessman/chamber member @JohnJamesMI.
Chamber also endorsed Democrats @davidwcoulter for Oakland County exec, @HaleyLive and @RepSlotkin's re-election in #MI11 and #MI08 and GOP's @VoteMeijer in #MI03.
Chamber also endorsed Democrats @davidwcoulter for Oakland County exec, @HaleyLive and @RepSlotkin's re-election in #MI11 and #MI08 and GOP's @VoteMeijer in #MI03.
--> @DetroitChamber also endorsed Democratic-nominated Michigan Supreme Court Chief Justice @BridgetMaryMc's re-election as well as Republican-nominated Appeals Court Judge Brock Swartzle for the high court.
Here's a breakdown by House seats:
Here's a breakdown by House seats:
UPDATED STORY: @DetroitChamber backing @GaryPeters in #MISen
@GRChamber, @michamber & @USChamber backing @JohnJamesMI
crainsdetroit.com/politics/detro…
@GRChamber, @michamber & @USChamber backing @JohnJamesMI
crainsdetroit.com/politics/detro…
LAWN SIGN REPORT (anecdotal, signs don't vote, etc etc): Spent the past week delivering Biden signs around the Birmingham/Bloomfield area of Oakland County, MI...one of the white, affluent, college educated, historically GOP suburbs which shifted blue HARD in 2018. 1/
I wrote about this area in a 2016 postmortem here: dailykos.com/stories/2016/1… 2/
In 2008, the B'ham/Blfld. area went for McCain over Obama by 3.8 points (51.4% to 47.6%).
In 2012, it went for Romney by over 16 points over Obama...but again, this is Romney's hometown.
In 2016, they went for Hillary over Trump...but only by 2.5 points (48.8% to 46.3%). 3/
In 2012, it went for Romney by over 16 points over Obama...but again, this is Romney's hometown.
In 2016, they went for Hillary over Trump...but only by 2.5 points (48.8% to 46.3%). 3/
1st term #MI08 Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin will face Republican primary winner Paul Junge per AP in the fall election. Slotkin flipped the Lansing/northern Oakland County area House seat in 2018 by defeating 2nd term GOP Rep. Mike Bishop in a competitive race 50.6%-46.8%.
NRCC:" Slotkin has broken every campaign promise since getting elected to Congress,from her phony ‘no corporate PAC’ pledge,to supporting partisan impeachment sham,to voting in lockstep w/Pelosi 97% of time. Voters cannot trust Slotkin & will reject her partisan politics in Nov."
DCCC on Rep Slotkin:“It’s no wonder Republicans 'swung & missed' in recruiting a credible candidate to challenge her. In the end,they got Paul Junge,a recent MI resident w/a 2nd-rate resume who has actively spread misinformation on COVID-19..Michiganders will reelect her in Nov."
We have a number of world-class universities in #MI08, and they’re already strained under safety and financial concerns brought on by this pandemic.
Putting thousands of students at risk for deportation further harms our institutions and local businesses. bit.ly/2O3zYeG
Putting thousands of students at risk for deportation further harms our institutions and local businesses. bit.ly/2O3zYeG
But most importantly, these foreign students are bringing their talents to our communities to make new scientific discoveries, invent new tech, and come up with new start-up ideas.
Our competitive advantage as a country is based on the idea that the best & brightest in the world want to make it in the U.S. Not China. Not Russia. Here.
Cutting our paying, enrolled foreign students is short-sighted, & puts politics above protecting our competitive advantage.
Cutting our paying, enrolled foreign students is short-sighted, & puts politics above protecting our competitive advantage.
A common concern I hear from #MI08 businesses: they’re eager and grateful for PPP loans, but worried because the program forces them to spend the money very quickly — within 8 weeks — and that doesn’t work since most businesses haven't reopened.
Our businesses need more time.
Our businesses need more time.
In the HEROES Act, we extended the time businesses have to use PPP funds from 8 to 24 weeks, and added flexibility so they can use the funds in the ways they need.
That’s good for entrepreneurs, for workers, and for downtowns across Michigan.
That’s good for entrepreneurs, for workers, and for downtowns across Michigan.
I disagreed with some provisions in the HEROES Act. But it included items like PPP improvements that deserve bipartisan support.
I hope the Senate will quickly come to the table so we can find common ground, negotiate, and get small businesses the help they need.
I hope the Senate will quickly come to the table so we can find common ground, negotiate, and get small businesses the help they need.
Today is the first day of Sexual Assault Awareness Month, and an important reminder that for some, staying home poses its own dangers. #SAAM
If you or someone you know is in need of assistance in #MI08, please see the following shelters:
If you or someone you know is in need of assistance in #MI08, please see the following shelters:
Ingham:
@EVEincLansing 24/7 crisis hotline: 517-372-5572.
@MSUSafePlace: 517-335-1100 or noabuse@msu.edu
Livingston:
@LACASAMichigan: 24/7 help line: 866-522-2725
Oakland:
@HAVEN_Oakland: 24/7 crisis hotline: 248-334-1274 or toll-free at 877-922-1274
#SAAM
@EVEincLansing 24/7 crisis hotline: 517-372-5572.
@MSUSafePlace: 517-335-1100 or noabuse@msu.edu
Livingston:
@LACASAMichigan: 24/7 help line: 866-522-2725
Oakland:
@HAVEN_Oakland: 24/7 crisis hotline: 248-334-1274 or toll-free at 877-922-1274
#SAAM
