Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #OH13

Most recents (24)

NEW RRH Polls of 3 districts:

#VA07
πŸ”΄ @yestoyesli (R) 47%
πŸ”΅ @RepSpanberger (D) 47%

#OR04
πŸ”΄ @alekskarlatos (R) 45%
πŸ”΅ @ValHoyle (D) 45%

#OH13
πŸ”΄ @madisongesiotto (R) 44%
πŸ”΅ @EmiliaSykesOH (D) 46%

rrhelections.com/?p=104100
In #VA07 we found Youngkin very popular (+17) and Biden not (-11). Spanberger leads with those who have already voted; Vega will be relying on strong Election Day turnout. Spanberger leads in Stafford County, Vega in Spotsylvania.
In #OR04, Biden is underwater (-9) despite carrying our sample 50-41 in 2020. Undecideds lean young, blue collar, and rural in this tied race. Hoyle does not have as large a lead in Lane County (Eugene) as one may expect.
Read 6 tweets
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.

Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace. ImageImageImage
Tonight's CLF buys (1/3)

#NY17 $2,593,204
#IL06 $1,913,350
#NV03 $1,509,471
#CA47 $1,484,309
#NV01 $1,447,925
#PA07 $1,419,827
#CA49 $1,343,586
#NY04 $1,324,750
#CA13 $1,162,594
#TX34 $1,050,079
#VA07 $1,031,830
#IL17 $996,760
#IN01 $899,304
#NY18 $786,512
#MN02 $653,079
Tonight's CLF buys (2/3)

#CA22 $646,452
#WA08 $644,145
#OR05 $636,737
#CT05 $604,832
#NY19 $599,291
#NC13 $594,582
#PA17 $567,250
#ME02 $527,500
#RI02 $506,313
#NY22 $497,750
#MI07 $453,800
#OR06 $447,500
#OH13 $402,750
#TX28 $356,186
#OH01 $340,851
#AZ06 $320,051
#AZ01 $310,380
Read 5 tweets
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...

$45.9 million in 57 House races...

adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
Tonight's HMP buys (1/4)

#NY03 $2,091,249
#NY18 $1,987,496
#NJ11 $1,961,501
#NJ05 $1,961,476
#PA07 $1,687,355
#IL17 $1,674,366
#TX28 $1,579,645
#VA07 $1,480,888
#MI07 $1,480,436
#PA17 $1,366,568
#MN02 $1,349,450
#NY19 $1,317,868
#NH01 $1,262,355
#CA13 $1,170,657
#NH02 $1,083,220
Tonight's HMP buys (2/4)

#NY04 $1,073,658
#AZ01 $1,054,068
#WA08 $1,050,275
#TX34 $1,034,351
#OR06 $1,008,020
#OH13 $961,300
#IN01 $947,522
#NV01 $902,915
#PA08 $882,593
#IL13 $866,533
#NM02 $840,709
#NY22 $804,598
#OH01 $759,588
#CO08 $746,912
#ME02 $726,274
#NC13 $710,544
Read 6 tweets
The @NRCC is out with what's likely it's final major buy ahead of the election, dropping $19.5 million in 29 House races and finally pulling ahead of their 2020 pace, logging $84.4 million in general election IEs.
Today's NRCC buys (1/2)

#MI07 $1,374,911
#ME02 $1,352,673
#MN02 $1,258,023
#OH13 $1,154,607
#NY22 $997,406
#VA07 $982,903
#CA22 $950,397
#PA08 $877,281
#TX28 $854,057
#PA17 $836,060
#NH01 $787,150
#WA08 $741,749
#IL17 $627,333
#NY19 $563,935
#NM02 $527,100
#PA07 $508,737
Today's NRCC buys (2/2)

#NY17 $492,456
#CO08 $484,379
#AZ06 $460,274
#RI02 $458,462
#NE02 $437,216
#CA27 $395,668
#CT05 $359,491
#TX34 $356,517
#IA03 $351,819
#MI08 $349,054
#NJ07 $334,947
#VA02 $323,999
#CA45 $290,779
Read 4 tweets
The DCCC is out with what is likely its final major buy before the election, dropping $8 million in 23 House races and adding the Biden +15% #NY04 to the board as targeted seat number 67. ImageImageImage
(This is also the first direct independent expenditure spending by the DCCC to defend DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in #NY17).
Today's DCCC buys (1/2)

#CA22 $1,142,098
#NV03 $1,094,710
#ME02 $932,408
#CA49 $880,015
#PA08 $739,586
#IL17 $553,515
#OH13 $505,750
#CT05 $486,503
#PA17 $368,367
#NV04 $333,393
#NE02 $201,976
#NY17 $112,517
#VA07 $108,368
#TX28 $93,997
#NH01 $90,100
#OH01 $79,700
#NY04 $71,000
Read 4 tweets
Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.
*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65. ImageImage
Tonight's HMP buys (1/3)

#NJ05 $1,959,458
#PA07 $1,720,125
#MI07 $1,507,533
#VA07 $1,284,208
#TX28 $1,259,722
#CA13 $1,206,064
#NH01 $1,196,950
#MN02 $1,176,281
#IL17 $958,645
#IN01 $953,087
#PA17 $915,645
#NV01 $887,864
#NY19 $846,081
#WA08 $813,814
#OH13 $795,000
Read 6 tweets
There's the spending boom I was waiting for...the NRCC drops $19.27 million on 31 House races, pulling ahead of its 2020 pace and adding the Biden +20% #PA12 to the board as targeted seat #64, backing Mike Doyle for retiring 14-term Dem Mike Doyle's seat.
ImageImageImage
Today's NRCC buys (1/2)

#MI07$1,499,784
#ME02$1,350,223
#MN02$1,250,208
#OH13$1,009,066
#CA22$941,557
#PA08$894,614
#PA17$846,908
#TX28$825,989
#NH01$815,750
#CA27$780,526
#WA08$724,356
#NY22$721,327
#CA45$645,465
#VA07$590,931
#NY19$563,935
Today's NRCC buys (2/2)

#NY17$527,193
#NM02$518,428
#PA07$505,183
#RI02$491,255
#IL17$490,579
#NE02$459,022
#AZ06$458,425
#IA03$421,218
#TX34$408,778
#CT05$401,871
#VA02$370,614
#NJ07$333,561
#MI08$320,974
#WI03$62,744
#CO08$28,296
#PA12$9,200
Read 4 tweets
The Democratic House Majority PAC goes up with $17.47 million in ads across 40 districts, including the first spending by any of the big four committees in Josh Harder's #CA09, bringing the number of targeted House seats to an even 60.
Today's HMP buys (1/3)

#NV01 $1,409,339
#NV04 $1,085,708
#NV03 $1,063,115
#CA22 $1,058,595
#NH01 $1,037,920
#NY19 $961,780
#TX28 $929,827
#OH13 $870,198
#MN02 $739,191
#WA08 $738,334
#IN01 $686,882
#KS03 $646,562
#CO08 $590,088
#OR06 $587,541
#NY22 $491,388
#TX34 $460,863
Today's HMP buys (2/3)

#OH01 $459,646
#CA49 $436,650
#RI02 $409,455
#PA17 $379,011
#NC01 $345,232
#NE02 $312,778
#GA02 $210,676
#OH09 $205,321
#NJ07 $171,807
#IA03 $164,363
#IL13 $158,950
#CA13 $123,963
#MI08 $116,751
#VA07 $105,000
#NY03 $91,071
#AZ04 $86,070
#MI07 $58,083
Read 4 tweets
The @NRCC finally starts to unload its war chest in earnest, dropping $14 million in 23 races.

It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
ImageImageImage
Today's NRCC buys (1/2)

#ME02 $1,348,132
#OH13 $1,228,652
#MN02 $1,090,377
#CA22 $973,825
#WA08 $876,994
#PA17 $848,163
#NH01 $787,150
#CA27 $782,726
#CA45 $778,488
#PA07 $690,861
#NY19 $615,810
#PA08 $572,138
#IA03 $528,673
#NM02 $521,473
#AZ06 $459,696
#NE02 $440,622
Today's NRCC buys (2/2)

#NJ07 $361,411
#MI08 $305,405
#WI03 $302,698
#TX28 $149,853
#TX15 $142,658
#NY17 $112,060
#VA07 $93,710
Read 4 tweets
The @dccc's Tuesday night dump at 3 weeks out adds another $12.57M in spending across 25 races, bringing their general election expenditures to $64 million as the NRCC continues to hold back, logging less than $30 million in IEs. ImageImage
Tonight's DCCC buys (1/2)

#PA07 $1,428,543
#ME02 $1,069,016
#CA13 $996,949
#PA17 $873,065
#VA07 $792,735
#CA49 $691,181
#NC13 $690,254
#MN02 $669,933
#TX34 $654,685
#IL17 $629,957
#AZ02 $598,373
#MI07 $587,659
#OR06 $564,579
#NM02 $451,682
#CT05 $418,141
#PA08 $408,710
Tonight's DCCC buys (2/2)

#OH13 $300,000
#NV03 $254,683
#NY18 $128,125
#NV04 $81,141
#NV01 $79,448
#TX28 $73,500
#OH01 $56,260
#OH09 $34,872
#AZ04 $32,375
Read 4 tweets
Friday night's filing dump from the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes after a $23.15 million torrent of spending spread across 43 targeted House races.

CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
Congressional Leadership Fund continues to run well ahead of their pace from past cycles and is running laps around the Democratic House Majority PAC, outspending their counterpart $120.9M to $40.7M.
Tonight's CLF buys (1/3)

#NV03 $1,429,474
#NV01 $1,422,146
#PA07 $1,047,124
#NJ07 $901,401
#CO08 $881,835
#CA47 $841,483
#OR05 $821,203
#IL17 $726,494
#FL27 $651,174
#MN02 $650,074
#NY19 $646,069
#VA07 $631,866
#CA13 $629,151
#MI07 $618,935
#TX28 $616,752
#CA22 $604,211
Read 5 tweets
The Democratic House Majority PAC's weekly independent expenditure dump adds another $9.08 million in 34 House races.

HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
Today's HMP buys (1/2)

#NV01 $1,121,509
#CA22 $995,205
#CA49 $896,348
#NV03 $859,247
#NV04 $809,496
#IN01 $683,122
#NH01 $538,117
#CT05 $529,755
#PA17 $462,496
#NC01 $348,908
#MI03 $317,726
#NE02 $219,314
#IL13 $176,899
#NJ07 $171,807
#OH09 $126,225
#CA13 $123,443
#MI08 $86,833
Today's HMP buys (2/2)

#AZ04 $49,500
#IL17 $49,100
#PA08 $45,854
#NY03 $45,221
#VA07 $45,000
#CO07 $44,534
#RI02 $43,500
#MN02 $40,000
#WA08 $39,318
#OH13 $39,000
#NY22 $38,750
#MI07 $31,000
#VA02 $27,846
#NY19 $23,333
#PA07 $18,333
#ME02 $16,732
#OR06 $15,000
Read 4 tweets
The House GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC wraps up its Friday spending dump, finishing up at $22 million deployed across 42 House races.

docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
32 days out, @CLFSuperPAC's general election spending is running ~$60 million ahead of their breakneck 2020 pace.
Today's @CLFSuperPAC buys (1/3)

#NV03 $1,494,562
#NV01 $1,181,949
#PA07 $1,022,681
#NH01 $981,150
#CO08 $934,807
#OR05 $773,033
#IN01 $740,075
#IL17 $711,513
#MN02 $684,808
#CA13 $678,224
#VA07 $663,140
#MI07 $644,028
#TX34 $615,633
#CA49 $584,838
#OH13 $565,159
#NY19 $553,155
Read 6 tweets
A pair of major filings from the @dccc and @NRCC within seconds of one another...the DCCC dropping $16.8 million in 33 races and the NRCC still holding back and deploying $5.59M in 9 races.

The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC. ImageImage
Today's DCCC buys (1/3)

#MI07 $1,023,595
#WA08 $914,082
#CA13 $887,013
#TX28 $877,736
#PA07 $822,504
#VA07 $738,010
#CO08 $724,286
#NC01 $678,431
#NH01 $670,977
#OH13 $624,694
#MN02 $603,123
#NY19 $578,924
#GA02 $577,265
#AZ04 $574,484
#OR05 $568,706
Today's DCCC buys (2/3)

#IL17 $564,045
#OH01 $562,891
#OR06 $517,844
#PA17 $515,834
#VA02 $491,375
#MI03 $474,695
#NY22 $434,336
#MI08 $426,641
#KS03 $406,528
#NM02 $356,148
#PA08 $324,212
#IA03 $202,940
#NV03 $192,497
#OR04 $189,071
#NV01 $174,997
#CA49 $59,999
Read 6 tweets
πŸ§΅π‘»π‘―π‘Ήπ‘¬π‘¨π‘«: The Supreme Court lit 49 years of precedent on fire, creating the nightmare reality the Republican Party has worked so damn hard for.

Let's take a look at where we are and where the GOP will drag our country, kicking & screaming, if given more of an opportunity.
At least 28 @NRCC-endorsed GOP challengers supported overturning #RoeVWade.
At least three vulnerable House Republicans & three @NRCC-endorsed challengers support π‘—π‘Žπ‘–π‘™π‘–π‘›π‘” π‘‘π‘œπ‘π‘‘π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘  π‘€β„Žπ‘œ π‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘“π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘š π‘Žπ‘π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘›π‘  (including @BlackmanForAZ in #AZ02 who also π‘ π‘’π‘π‘π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘‘π‘  π‘—π‘Žπ‘–π‘™π‘–π‘›π‘” π‘€π‘œπ‘šπ‘’π‘› π‘€β„Žπ‘œ 𝑔𝑒𝑑 π‘Žπ‘π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘›π‘ ).
Read 16 tweets
Big shakeup in DCCC's House battlefield this AM. The committee named 12 challengers to its "Red to Blue" program, added 3 members to its "Frontline" program, added 8 new GOP/Dem districts to its "In Play" list, and removed 6 GOP-held districts from its target list.
Read 5 tweets
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
Read 38 tweets
On Saturday, Gov. Mike DeWine signed this Ohio congressional map into law. It is only good through the 2024 election, though. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Despite Ohio's 2018 redistricting reform, this map is heavily biased toward Republicans. It has a R+16 efficiency gap and creates 11 πŸ”΄, 2 πŸ”΅, and 2 🟣 seats. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
The map eliminates Dem-held #OH13 and puts Dem Rep. Marcy Kaptur in an R+8 seat. However, it also creates new competitive districts around Cincinnati (#OH01) and Cleveland (#OH13). projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 4 tweets
In other news, Ohio Republicans appear to be pursuing a brutal 13R-2D gerrymander (up from 12R-4D today).
If enacted, this map would end #OH09 Rep. Marcy Kaptur's (D) career by flipping her seat red. It would also flip Rep. Tim Ryan's (D) open #OH13 red and eliminate retiring Rep. Anthony Gonzalez's (R) #OH16.

Pretty much the last remaining obstacle is the OH Supreme Court.
The only competitive district on this map would be GOP Rep. Steve Chabot (R)'s #OH01, where Cincinnati is required to be kept whole per Ohio's new rules. But if the 2022 environment is anything like we saw last night, Rs would stand a decent chance of keeping it.
Read 3 tweets
OHIO: has arguably been the most effective GOP gerrymander of the 2010s. For an entire decade, it's been a 12R-4D rout (below). Zero seats have changed hands.

But now, thanks to a reform passed by voters in 2018, the future of Ohio's map is highly uncertain. A thread...
The reform requires maps keep more cities/counties whole and high bipartisan support to pass a new map. However, if the legislature (and a backup panel) fail to agree, Republicans can pass a map along party lines that's valid for four years only.
If there's a deadlock or Rs simply don't cooperate, Rs could try to pass an *even more* aggressive gerrymander that complies w/ the new county split criteria and packs Dem voters into Cleveland & Columbus for a 13R-2D (!) split (below).
Read 7 tweets
For 2012, Ohio's 13th District was drawn to include every Democratic-leaning area from Youngstown to Akron. It was 63% Obama that year, but its lean has eroded. Biden still carried #OH13, but with 51% to Trump's 47.6% -- putting it slightly *right* of the national popular vote.
There were few differences between the presidential and congressional map in 2020. Basically Ryan made the Trump towns less red.
@kilometerbryman and I had a pretty substantive discussion about this map earlier.
Read 3 tweets
If you thought Ohio Republicans' 12R-4D map this past decade was an aggressive gerrymander, just wait until you see this 13R-2D (!) map, which could wipe out half of Dems' House majority in just one state. Image
Yes, there's a new commission in OH, but Republicans could easily go around it if it deadlocks...and this map would put both #OH09 Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) and #OH13 Rep. Tim Ryan (D) in brutal districts that voted for Trump by 10%+.
And even worse for Dems, the 13R-2D map above *complies* w/ OH's new anti-gerrymandering criteria, including keeping the cities of Cleveland & Cincinnati whole and minimizing split counties.
Read 3 tweets
Check it out!
ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
#Congress2020 Govs AGs SoS
Postcards (Print&Share)& Donations Links
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ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
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Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
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Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
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Read 51 tweets
Check it out!
ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
#Congress2020 Govs AGs SoS
Postcards (Print & Share!) & Links to Follow & Support!
#PostcardsforAmerica
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets&Posts for each Candidate
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
FB Albums facebook.com/pg/postcards4U…
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:
Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica
Read 51 tweets

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