Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #NY18

Most recents (24)

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Matthew Foldi
@MatthewFoldi
The #TopMinion phone bank is the unsung hero of 2022

We made over 1,OOO,OOO calls for Republicans around the country, helping our friends win primaries and general elections

While some of them came up short, I'm confident we'll see them soon

Here's who we called for...

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The #TopMinion Phone Bank called all over New York, starting with @claudiatenney in her primary in the new #NY24 district, which she resoundingly won en route to a landslide victory in November

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If at first you don't succeed...

@EliseStefanik is a huge supporter of @marcmolinaro, and when her team asked if the #TopMinion Phone Bank could call for him, we did over 5O,OOO calls for him in the #NY19 special

While he came up just short then, he won in November!

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Read 15 tweets
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Yossi Gestetner
@YossiGestetner
#NY17 was a GOP flip; #NY18 a Dem hold both due to voters who Orthodox Jewish. #NY19 was a GOP flip due in part to Orthodox Jews.

Trump won 90% of this vote in 2020

Anyone who thinks running from Trump helps @HouseGOP's is clueless. It's passive at best; a negative at worst.
IN FACT: Trump's work on prison reform and his overall friendly approach to Orthodox Jews were used in favor of Republicans; certainly in #NY17. A leading Grand Rabbi in one of these districts criticized his flock post election as to how Trumpism overtook the Orthodox community!
In fact, Thursday AM, @lawler4ny (who won by a few thousand votes due to HUGE support among Orthodox Jews) said on CNN that the GOP should move on from Trump in '24.

At night he was at a Kosher Deli. He took incoming for saying it.

I was there. I heard it. From many people.
Read 5 tweets
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Benjamin Rosenblatt
@BenJ_Rosenblatt
Polls close in 5 minutes in NY. Some races I'm watching:
-#NYGov (obviously)
-Congress: #NY01, #NY02, #NY03, #NY04, #NY17, #NY18, #NY19, #NY22
-Senate Districts: 1, 7, 9, 23, 37-44, 48, & 50
-Statewide Ballot Prop 1
-3 NYC Ballot Props
Reminder: in New York, absentee ballots received prior to election day are pre-processed and included in unofficial election night tallies!

Those absentees and early voting are likely the first results we're seeing.
BTW I will not be live-tweeting results as they come in. If you want to follow along with results statewide, go to nyenr.elections.ny.gov.

You can also get results quicker and often more reliably from individual county Boards of Elections' websites (depending on the county)
Read 25 tweets
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Rob Pyers
@rpyers
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.

Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace. ImageImageImage
Tonight's CLF buys (1/3)

#NY17 $2,593,204
#IL06 $1,913,350
#NV03 $1,509,471
#CA47 $1,484,309
#NV01 $1,447,925
#PA07 $1,419,827
#CA49 $1,343,586
#NY04 $1,324,750
#CA13 $1,162,594
#TX34 $1,050,079
#VA07 $1,031,830
#IL17 $996,760
#IN01 $899,304
#NY18 $786,512
#MN02 $653,079
Tonight's CLF buys (2/3)

#CA22 $646,452
#WA08 $644,145
#OR05 $636,737
#CT05 $604,832
#NY19 $599,291
#NC13 $594,582
#PA17 $567,250
#ME02 $527,500
#RI02 $506,313
#NY22 $497,750
#MI07 $453,800
#OR06 $447,500
#OH13 $402,750
#TX28 $356,186
#OH01 $340,851
#AZ06 $320,051
#AZ01 $310,380
Read 5 tweets
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Rob Pyers
@rpyers
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...

$45.9 million in 57 House races...

adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
Tonight's HMP buys (1/4)

#NY03 $2,091,249
#NY18 $1,987,496
#NJ11 $1,961,501
#NJ05 $1,961,476
#PA07 $1,687,355
#IL17 $1,674,366
#TX28 $1,579,645
#VA07 $1,480,888
#MI07 $1,480,436
#PA17 $1,366,568
#MN02 $1,349,450
#NY19 $1,317,868
#NH01 $1,262,355
#CA13 $1,170,657
#NH02 $1,083,220
Tonight's HMP buys (2/4)

#NY04 $1,073,658
#AZ01 $1,054,068
#WA08 $1,050,275
#TX34 $1,034,351
#OR06 $1,008,020
#OH13 $961,300
#IN01 $947,522
#NV01 $902,915
#PA08 $882,593
#IL13 $866,533
#NM02 $840,709
#NY22 $804,598
#OH01 $759,588
#CO08 $746,912
#ME02 $726,274
#NC13 $710,544
Read 6 tweets
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Rob Pyers
@rpyers
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes tonight's filing dump, dropping $24.9 million in 39 races, bringing its general election IE spending to $175,411,754, more than the $173,430,579 spent by the Democratic House Majority PAC and the DCCC combined.
Today's CLF buys (1/3)

#CA47 $1,682,483
#PA07 $1,539,925
#NY17 $1,518,158
#NV03 $1,503,351
#NV01 $1,455,758
#IN01 $1,014,589
#VA07 $991,831
#CA13 $945,284
#NJ07 $833,186
#NY19 $770,181
#CA49 $769,283
#TX34 $738,255
#WA08 $715,288
#CA22 $711,987
#OR05 $680,714
#PA17 $665,653
Today's CLF buys (2/3)

#TX28 $636,376
#CO08 $624,456
#IL17 $611,310
#CT05 $608,112
#NC13 $582,079
#ME02 $548,414
#NY22 $498,339
#RI02 $486,313
#MN02 $472,556
#VA02 $405,567
#FL27 $393,568
#OH01 $343,088
#AZ06 $329,402
#CA45 $294,819
#NE02 $259,178
#MI07 $249,885
#NY18 $222,852
Read 5 tweets
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Rob Pyers
@rpyers
The @dccc's Tuesday night dump at 3 weeks out adds another $12.57M in spending across 25 races, bringing their general election expenditures to $64 million as the NRCC continues to hold back, logging less than $30 million in IEs. ImageImage
Tonight's DCCC buys (1/2)

#PA07 $1,428,543
#ME02 $1,069,016
#CA13 $996,949
#PA17 $873,065
#VA07 $792,735
#CA49 $691,181
#NC13 $690,254
#MN02 $669,933
#TX34 $654,685
#IL17 $629,957
#AZ02 $598,373
#MI07 $587,659
#OR06 $564,579
#NM02 $451,682
#CT05 $418,141
#PA08 $408,710
Tonight's DCCC buys (2/2)

#OH13 $300,000
#NV03 $254,683
#NY18 $128,125
#NV04 $81,141
#NV01 $79,448
#TX28 $73,500
#OH01 $56,260
#OH09 $34,872
#AZ04 $32,375
Read 4 tweets
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Rob Pyers
@rpyers
Friday night's filing dump from the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes after a $23.15 million torrent of spending spread across 43 targeted House races.

CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
Congressional Leadership Fund continues to run well ahead of their pace from past cycles and is running laps around the Democratic House Majority PAC, outspending their counterpart $120.9M to $40.7M.
Tonight's CLF buys (1/3)

#NV03 $1,429,474
#NV01 $1,422,146
#PA07 $1,047,124
#NJ07 $901,401
#CO08 $881,835
#CA47 $841,483
#OR05 $821,203
#IL17 $726,494
#FL27 $651,174
#MN02 $650,074
#NY19 $646,069
#VA07 $631,866
#CA13 $629,151
#MI07 $618,935
#TX28 $616,752
#CA22 $604,211
Read 5 tweets
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Rob Pyers
@rpyers
The House GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC wraps up its Friday spending dump, finishing up at $22 million deployed across 42 House races.

docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
32 days out, @CLFSuperPAC's general election spending is running ~$60 million ahead of their breakneck 2020 pace.
Today's @CLFSuperPAC buys (1/3)

#NV03 $1,494,562
#NV01 $1,181,949
#PA07 $1,022,681
#NH01 $981,150
#CO08 $934,807
#OR05 $773,033
#IN01 $740,075
#IL17 $711,513
#MN02 $684,808
#CA13 $678,224
#VA07 $663,140
#MI07 $644,028
#TX34 $615,633
#CA49 $584,838
#OH13 $565,159
#NY19 $553,155
Read 6 tweets
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Daily Kos Elections
@DKElections
Hero of the night is looking like @votevets. They spent $500,000 to help Pat Ryan in #NY19 and were the only Dem group to really get involved in terms of independent expenditures
No AP call in #NY23 GOP primary yet, but NBC has called it for state party chair Nick Langworthy. Black eye for Elise Stefanik, #3 in the House GOP, who endorsed racist Carl Paladino—a move that led other House GOP leaders to claim she'd "gone rogue"! nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
The DCCC did run a joint ad with Ryan (it seemed like a so-called "hybrid" ad, where costs are split), but it's not clear how much the cmte spent on it axios.com/2022/08/10/new…
Read 5 tweets
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Daily Kos Elections
@DKElections
The AP has called #FL11 GOP primary for Rep. Dan Webster. The longest-serving state legislator in FL history and its first GOP state House speaker since Reconstruction turns back far-right activist Laura Loomer in shockingly tight contest.
Over in GOP primary for open and dark red #OK02, former state Sen. Josh Brecheen leads state Rep. Avery Frix 54.5-45.5. Group affiliated with Club for Growth spent heavily for Brecheen, a former Club fellow.
AP calls #FL13 GOP primary for Trump's candidate, 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna. She'll face former DoD official Eric Lynn in seat GOP gerrymandered into 53-46 Trump.
Read 46 tweets
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RRH Elections
@RRHElections
Quick hits on the new NY Congressional map: this will realistically swing between 16D-10R and 20D-6R, with each party having a couple other longer-shot targets. The key changes from Monday are a safer Malliotakis seat and splitting Suffolk by North/South Shore instead of E/W.
After being tantalized with the possibility of a compact South Brooklyn seat, the court's final map is somehow even worse for the Orthodox Jewish community than the first draft. Boro Park is split precisely down the middle, eliminating its influence.
With the huge exception of South Brooklyn, everything else south of I-84 is about as clean and no-nonsense as you could ask for. But the Upstate lines are still a mess, as Cervas's attempt to draw a "competitive" #NY19 creates a seat that runs from Watertown to Niagara.
Read 4 tweets
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David Nir
@DavidNir
Mondaire Jones has a difficult choice right now, and I don't envy him. DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney selfishly put Jones in a bad spot by immediately saying he'd run for #NY17 instead of #NY18 as soon as NY's new draft map came out. Now Jones must decide between #NY17 & #NY16
Assuming the map is finalized as-is, Jones would represent 3x as much of #NY17 as Maloney. He's also vastly more progressive than SPM, one of the most centrist Dems in the House. Jones even had more cash on hand than Maloney as of 3/31! $2.9 mil vs. $2.1 dailykos.com/stories/2022/4…
Of course, Maloney has access to lots of $, so Jones would be taking on a huge fight. But Maloney didn't fare well the last time he ran in a primary against more progressive foes: He took just 25% and finished third in the primary for AG in 2018 ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.htm…
Read 15 tweets
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RRH Elections
@RRHElections
#NY19 Antonio Delgado (D) was facing a tough re-election challenge from Marc Molinaro (R). With the Democrats' Congressional gerrymander thrown the new map will probably make his seat more GOP & the special master can shore up DCCC Chair Sean Maloney in neighboring #NY18.
#NYGov Kathy Hochul (D) will also have to call a special election to fill the remainder of #NY19 Rep Antonio Delgado's term. Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro (R) should be a favorite to win the special which will be run under the old R+3 PVI lines.
We got full details and Great Mentioner on possible candidates for the #NY19 special election and general election here👇
rrhelections.com/index.php/2022…
Read 3 tweets
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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
NEW: Dem leaders in Albany are set to release maps in the next 72 hours, but there's still tension between Marc Elias/Sean Patrick Maloney - who are pushing for a hyper-aggressive 23D-3R gerrymander - and Upstate Dem incumbents who'd like more minor changes to their districts.
At issue: it's theoretically possible to draw a 23D-3R gerrymander w/ 23 double-digit Biden seats (example, left). But it would require Dem Reps. Paul Tonko #NY20, Joe Morelle #NY25 and Brian Higgins #NY26 to give up some existing blue turf (current map, right).
There's talk NY Dems might instead propose a milder 22D-4R gerrymander that leaves Tonko, Morelle and Higgins districts intact but still shores up #NY18 Maloney & #NY19 Delgado (rough sketch below).

In this scenario, #NY22 Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) could be spared.
Read 4 tweets
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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
NEW YORK: strategists I've spoken w/ tell me strong census numbers in NYC could help Dems purge as many as *five* of the eight GOP seats in the state.

In the hypothetical below, Dems would gerrymander the current 19D-8R map (left) into as brutal as a 23D-3R rout (right).
In the scenario above, only three Rs would be spared: Reps. Andrew Garbarino #NY02, Elise Stefanik #NY21 and Chris Jacobs #NY23.

Every Dem incumbent would get a double digit Biden seat (including Maloney #NY18 & Delgado #NY19).
A close-up view of NYC in the above scenario: Staten Island Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R)'s #NY11 would take on Red Hook, Sunset Park & parts of Park Slope and flip from Trump +11 to Biden +10.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)'s #NY14 would absorb some GOP parts of Westchester.
Read 4 tweets
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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Of the nation's current 435 House districts, 226 voted for Trump in '16 and 209 voted for Clinton.

Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.
Here are the 12 Trump '16 districts I can say with confidence Biden has flipped blue so far:

#AZ01
#GA06
#GA07
#MN02
#NE02
#NH01
#NJ05
#NJ11
#PA17
#TX24
#VA02
#VA07

And the two Clinton '16 districts Trump has flipped red so far:

#FL26
#TX23
Here are the 11 districts that I'm still not 100% certain about ('16 winner):

#CA48 (Clinton)
#IL14 (Trump)
#IL17 (Trump)
#MI11 (Trump)
#NV03 (Trump)
#NJ03 (Trump)
#NY18 (Trump)
#NY19 (Trump)
#OH01 (Trump)
#TX15 (Clinton)
#TX28 (Clinton)

I'd be open to anyone's math on these.
Read 4 tweets
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͏Postcards4USA
@postcards4USA
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@postcards4USA
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͏Postcards4USA
@postcards4USA
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͏Postcards4USA
@postcards4USA
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Update Sep 12
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͏Postcards4USA
@postcards4USA
Want to check out all Democratic Candidates?
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Comfortably Smug
@ComfortablySmug
Time for super pacs to start running ads in these districts letting voters know if these people vote for impeachment, they get voted out. Period.
We're gonna make these people famous today

From now until Wednesday, it's time to put pressure on these Dems:

You vote with AOC and impeachment, and you're toast. She's in New York City and doesn't give a shit you're in a red district.

Voting for censure is your only way out
HERE THEY ARE

PRESSURE THEM TO VOTE AGAINST IMPEACHMENT. ONLY CENSURE CAN SAVE THEM.

Tom O’Halleran #AZ01

@RepOHalleran

@TomOHalleran

(202) 225-3361

Lucy McBath #GA06

@RepLucyMcBath

@LucyMcBath

(202) 225-4501
Read 11 tweets
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Amy Kremer
@AmyKremer
#MarchforTrump 📢👟🇺🇸💯

Men & Women! 💃🕺

October 17th @ 10 AM

US Capitol AND Locations across the country!

TrumpMarch.com

#KAG #MAGA #WomenForTrump #stopimpeachmentnow #StandWithTrump #standwithPOTUS
🚨🚨🚨

📢We will be having protests outside of congressional district offices in the following districts.📢
If you can help organize a district or state protest, pls let us know. 📢@america1stwomen

#AZ01
#GA06
#IL14
#IL17
#IA01
#IA02
#IA03
#ME02
#MI08
#MI11
#MN02
#MN07
#NV03
#NH01
#NJ02
#NJ03
#NJ05
#NJ11
#NM02
#NY11
#NY18
#NY19
#NY22
#OK05
#PA08
#PA17
#SC01
#UT04
#VA02
#VA07
#WI03
Read 5 tweets

Related hashtags

#OK3 #IL13 #VA5 #RI2 #NC5 #MA6 #VA11 #TX17 #LA4 #NM1 #FL25 #SC1 #CO1 #MI08 #PA8 #OR04 #UT2 #VA8 #MO8 #NJ3 #NY11 #TX16 #TN1 #NY26

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