Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #IA03

RRH Elections

@RRHElections

GOP House math coming into focus:

206 seats are locked down.

R's lead and *should* win: #AZ06, #CA03, #CA40, #CA45, #IA03, #MI10, #MT01, #NY22.

That's 214. Need 4 of these 15: #AZ01 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA47 #CA49 #CO03 #CO08 #CT05 #NM02 #NV03 #OR05 #OR06 #WA03

The easiest path to 4:

#CA41 Calvert (R) holds a Trump seat as more votes come in.

#WA03 Kent (R) comes back as late votes typically break R in WA.

#AZ01 Schweikert (R) comes back as late votes are generally pro-R in Arizona.

#CA27 Garcia (R) holds his 15-point lead.

Republicans are also bullish on #CT05, which is very close. R's lead #OR05 by 4 and #CA22 by 8, but with more mail-ballot uncertainty (the NYT needle sees R's as modest favorites in both).

Regardless, it's a wait-and-see game with Western mail votes.

Read 3 tweets

Robert Rutledge

@rerutled

This is a spreadsheet of Cook Report races which I made based on currently reported results (9am Wed).

+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning

Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.

#Election2022

Note especially: 3 (of 10 total) GOP "Toss up" seats have already been called for Democratic Victory.
#NC13 #OH01 #TX34.

On the Dem "Toss up" side, there's #VA02 which flipped Red. But that's it.

In summary, of currently held Dem seats, only 1 flipped Dem-> GOP (#VA02), with 6 races leaning GOP.

On the other hand, of current GOP seats, 4 have flipped GOP->Dem (#MT01, #NC13, #OH01, #TX34) and 7 lean Democrats.

I think the Democrats will win the US House.

Read 22 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.

Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.

Tonight's CLF buys (1/3)

#NY17 $2,593,204
#IL06 $1,913,350
#NV03 $1,509,471
#CA47 $1,484,309
#NV01 $1,447,925
#PA07 $1,419,827
#CA49 $1,343,586
#NY04 $1,324,750
#CA13 $1,162,594
#TX34 $1,050,079
#VA07 $1,031,830
#IL17 $996,760
#IN01 $899,304
#NY18 $786,512
#MN02 $653,079

Tonight's CLF buys (2/3)

#CA22 $646,452
#WA08 $644,145
#OR05 $636,737
#CT05 $604,832
#NY19 $599,291
#NC13 $594,582
#PA17 $567,250
#ME02 $527,500
#RI02 $506,313
#NY22 $497,750
#MI07 $453,800
#OR06 $447,500
#OH13 $402,750
#TX28 $356,186
#OH01 $340,851
#AZ06 $320,051
#AZ01 $310,380

Read 5 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...

$45.9 million in 57 House races...

adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1587989886933471233

Tonight's HMP buys (1/4)

#NY03 $2,091,249
#NY18 $1,987,496
#NJ11 $1,961,501
#NJ05 $1,961,476
#PA07 $1,687,355
#IL17 $1,674,366
#TX28 $1,579,645
#VA07 $1,480,888
#MI07 $1,480,436
#PA17 $1,366,568
#MN02 $1,349,450
#NY19 $1,317,868
#NH01 $1,262,355
#CA13 $1,170,657
#NH02 $1,083,220

Tonight's HMP buys (2/4)

#NY04 $1,073,658
#AZ01 $1,054,068
#WA08 $1,050,275
#TX34 $1,034,351
#OR06 $1,008,020
#OH13 $961,300
#IN01 $947,522
#NV01 $902,915
#PA08 $882,593
#IL13 $866,533
#NM02 $840,709
#NY22 $804,598
#OH01 $759,588
#CO08 $746,912
#ME02 $726,274
#NC13 $710,544

Read 6 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

The @NRCC is out with what's likely it's final major buy ahead of the election, dropping $19.5 million in 29 House races and finally pulling ahead of their 2020 pace, logging $84.4 million in general election IEs.

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1587834501354299392

Today's NRCC buys (1/2)

#MI07 $1,374,911
#ME02 $1,352,673
#MN02 $1,258,023
#OH13 $1,154,607
#NY22 $997,406
#VA07 $982,903
#CA22 $950,397
#PA08 $877,281
#TX28 $854,057
#PA17 $836,060
#NH01 $787,150
#WA08 $741,749
#IL17 $627,333
#NY19 $563,935
#NM02 $527,100
#PA07 $508,737

Today's NRCC buys (2/2)

#NY17 $492,456
#CO08 $484,379
#AZ06 $460,274
#RI02 $458,462
#NE02 $437,216
#CA27 $395,668
#CT05 $359,491
#TX34 $356,517
#IA03 $351,819
#MI08 $349,054
#NJ07 $334,947
#VA02 $323,999
#CA45 $290,779

Read 4 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes tonight's filing dump, dropping $24.9 million in 39 races, bringing its general election IE spending to $175,411,754, more than the $173,430,579 spent by the Democratic House Majority PAC and the DCCC combined.

Today's CLF buys (1/3)

#CA47 $1,682,483
#PA07 $1,539,925
#NY17 $1,518,158
#NV03 $1,503,351
#NV01 $1,455,758
#IN01 $1,014,589
#VA07 $991,831
#CA13 $945,284
#NJ07 $833,186
#NY19 $770,181
#CA49 $769,283
#TX34 $738,255
#WA08 $715,288
#CA22 $711,987
#OR05 $680,714
#PA17 $665,653

Today's CLF buys (2/3)

#TX28 $636,376
#CO08 $624,456
#IL17 $611,310
#CT05 $608,112
#NC13 $582,079
#ME02 $548,414
#NY22 $498,339
#RI02 $486,313
#MN02 $472,556
#VA02 $405,567
#FL27 $393,568
#OH01 $343,088
#AZ06 $329,402
#CA45 $294,819
#NE02 $259,178
#MI07 $249,885
#NY18 $222,852

Read 5 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1585465157441814528

*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65.

Tonight's HMP buys (1/3)

#NJ05 $1,959,458
#PA07 $1,720,125
#MI07 $1,507,533
#VA07 $1,284,208
#TX28 $1,259,722
#CA13 $1,206,064
#NH01 $1,196,950
#MN02 $1,176,281
#IL17 $958,645
#IN01 $953,087
#PA17 $915,645
#NV01 $887,864
#NY19 $846,081
#WA08 $813,814
#OH13 $795,000

Read 6 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

There's the spending boom I was waiting for...the NRCC drops $19.27 million on 31 House races, pulling ahead of its 2020 pace and adding the Biden +20% #PA12 to the board as targeted seat #64, backing Mike Doyle for retiring 14-term Dem Mike Doyle's seat.

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1585404729420488705

Today's NRCC buys (1/2)

#MI07$1,499,784
#ME02$1,350,223
#MN02$1,250,208
#OH13$1,009,066
#CA22$941,557
#PA08$894,614
#PA17$846,908
#TX28$825,989
#NH01$815,750
#CA27$780,526
#WA08$724,356
#NY22$721,327
#CA45$645,465
#VA07$590,931
#NY19$563,935

Today's NRCC buys (2/2)

#NY17$527,193
#NM02$518,428
#PA07$505,183
#RI02$491,255
#IL17$490,579
#NE02$459,022
#AZ06$458,425
#IA03$421,218
#TX34$408,778
#CT05$401,871
#VA02$370,614
#NJ07$333,561
#MI08$320,974
#WI03$62,744
#CO08$28,296
#PA12$9,200

Read 4 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

The Democratic House Majority PAC goes up with $17.47 million in ads across 40 districts, including the first spending by any of the big four committees in Josh Harder's #CA09, bringing the number of targeted House seats to an even 60.

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1583287245347250176

Today's HMP buys (1/3)

#NV01 $1,409,339
#NV04 $1,085,708
#NV03 $1,063,115
#CA22 $1,058,595
#NH01 $1,037,920
#NY19 $961,780
#TX28 $929,827
#OH13 $870,198
#MN02 $739,191
#WA08 $738,334
#IN01 $686,882
#KS03 $646,562
#CO08 $590,088
#OR06 $587,541
#NY22 $491,388
#TX34 $460,863

Today's HMP buys (2/3)

#OH01 $459,646
#CA49 $436,650
#RI02 $409,455
#PA17 $379,011
#NC01 $345,232
#NE02 $312,778
#GA02 $210,676
#OH09 $205,321
#NJ07 $171,807
#IA03 $164,363
#IL13 $158,950
#CA13 $123,963
#MI08 $116,751
#VA07 $105,000
#NY03 $91,071
#AZ04 $86,070
#MI07 $58,083

Read 4 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

The @NRCC finally starts to unload its war chest in earnest, dropping $14 million in 23 races.

It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1582768648187281412

Today's NRCC buys (1/2)

#ME02 $1,348,132
#OH13 $1,228,652
#MN02 $1,090,377
#CA22 $973,825
#WA08 $876,994
#PA17 $848,163
#NH01 $787,150
#CA27 $782,726
#CA45 $778,488
#PA07 $690,861
#NY19 $615,810
#PA08 $572,138
#IA03 $528,673
#NM02 $521,473
#AZ06 $459,696
#NE02 $440,622

Today's NRCC buys (2/2)

#NJ07 $361,411
#MI08 $305,405
#WI03 $302,698
#TX28 $149,853
#TX15 $142,658
#NY17 $112,060
#VA07 $93,710

Read 4 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

Friday night's filing dump from the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes after a $23.15 million torrent of spending spread across 43 targeted House races.

CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…

Congressional Leadership Fund continues to run well ahead of their pace from past cycles and is running laps around the Democratic House Majority PAC, outspending their counterpart $120.9M to $40.7M.

Tonight's CLF buys (1/3)

#NV03 $1,429,474
#NV01 $1,422,146
#PA07 $1,047,124
#NJ07 $901,401
#CO08 $881,835
#CA47 $841,483
#OR05 $821,203
#IL17 $726,494
#FL27 $651,174
#MN02 $650,074
#NY19 $646,069
#VA07 $631,866
#CA13 $629,151
#MI07 $618,935
#TX28 $616,752
#CA22 $604,211

Read 5 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

The House GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC wraps up its Friday spending dump, finishing up at $22 million deployed across 42 House races.

docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…

32 days out, @CLFSuperPAC's general election spending is running ~$60 million ahead of their breakneck 2020 pace.

Today's @CLFSuperPAC buys (1/3)

#NV03 $1,494,562
#NV01 $1,181,949
#PA07 $1,022,681
#NH01 $981,150
#CO08 $934,807
#OR05 $773,033
#IN01 $740,075
#IL17 $711,513
#MN02 $684,808
#CA13 $678,224
#VA07 $663,140
#MI07 $644,028
#TX34 $615,633
#CA49 $584,838
#OH13 $565,159
#NY19 $553,155

Read 6 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

A pair of major filings from the @dccc and @NRCC within seconds of one another...the DCCC dropping $16.8 million in 33 races and the NRCC still holding back and deploying $5.59M in 9 races.

The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.

Today's DCCC buys (1/3)

#MI07 $1,023,595
#WA08 $914,082
#CA13 $887,013
#TX28 $877,736
#PA07 $822,504
#VA07 $738,010
#CO08 $724,286
#NC01 $678,431
#NH01 $670,977
#OH13 $624,694
#MN02 $603,123
#NY19 $578,924
#GA02 $577,265
#AZ04 $574,484
#OR05 $568,706

Today's DCCC buys (2/3)

#IL17 $564,045
#OH01 $562,891
#OR06 $517,844
#PA17 $515,834
#VA02 $491,375
#MI03 $474,695
#NY22 $434,336
#MI08 $426,641
#KS03 $406,528
#NM02 $356,148
#PA08 $324,212
#IA03 $202,940
#NV03 $192,497
#OR04 $189,071
#NV01 $174,997
#CA49 $59,999

Read 6 tweets

DCCC

@dccc

Democrats’ Infrastructure Deal will provide a massive fix for our nation’s roads, bridges, ports, and so much more.

These are real, substantial wins for our communities — so here’s a snapshot on how a few will benefit: 🧵

𝗖𝗢𝗡𝗡𝗘𝗖𝗧𝗜𝗖𝗨𝗧: Did you know 1 in 10 Connecticut households currently do not have internet?

Rep. @JahanaHayesCT helped deliver Dems’ Infrastructure deal to fix this. #CT05
courant.com/politics/hc-po…

𝗡𝗘𝗪 𝗛𝗔𝗠𝗣𝗦𝗛𝗜𝗥𝗘: Rep. @ChrisPappasNH helped secure $2,000,000,000 for NH to fix the 250 bridges and nearly 700 miles of highway in poor condition, providing safer commutes for NH communities. #NH01
thecentersquare.com/new_hampshire/…

Read 14 tweets

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

IOWA: is often held up as the "gold standard" for apolitical redistricting. Every 10 years, it tasks nonpartisan state bureaucrats w/ drafting maps, and counties are kept whole. But, maps are still subject to legislature/governor approval, and this round Rs control both.

Rep. Cindy Axne (D)'s #IA03 is the only D seat left in the state, and it's also IA's fastest-growing. It'll need to shed ~60k people.

In 2020, she won by 1.4% while losing every county except Polk (Des Moines). So, a more Des Moines-centric district would be good news for her.

One possibility: the state panel could propose one compact central Iowa district (Des Moines/Ames) that would have voted for Biden, surrounded by three Trump districts.

But until we have exact census numbers, IA's remap prospects are difficult to game out.

Read 4 tweets

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

Based on a variety of number-crunching sources, esp. @DKElections, it looks like there were at most 16 districts out of 435 that split their tickets between president/House in '20 - likely an all-time low.

For perspective, there were 83 such districts in '08 and 35 in '16.

Biden/R districts (9):

#CA21 Valadao
#CA25 Garcia
#CA39 Kim
#CA48 Steel
#FL27 Salazar
#NE02 Bacon
#NY24 Katko
#PA01 Fitzpatrick
#TX24 Van Duyne

Trump/D districts (7/8?):

#IL17 Bustos
#IA03 Axne
#ME02 Golden
#MI08 Slotkin
#NJ03 Kim
#NY22 Brindisi (?)
#PA08 Cartwright
#WI03 Kind

Correction to first tweet: at most 17, if Brindisi (D) prevails in #NY22. Would still be less than half of the 35 in 2016.

Read 3 tweets

Stephen Beban

@StephenBeban

Improved Dave's #Redistricting App brings me joy! (Gratefully anticipating post-2020). @davesredist @mikemathieu #ElectionTwitter 1/27

@PoliticsWolf @ecaliberseven @DKElections @JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @Center4Politics @Redistrict @fairvote @jbview
gardow.com/davebradlee/re…

Tested it out with this new KY map. Based on 2016-2019 results, intrigued how it would do in 2020. The #KY04 (R+7 PVI) seems more competitive than the real #KY06 (R+9), with the movement in the Cincinnati and Lexington suburbs. 2/27 davesredistricting.org/join/d389d8e2-…

However, I also did a bunch of Democratic gerrymanders after 2012 redistricting to compare with the real Republican ones. Thought I’d review how my designs performed in light of 2016. The contrast shows just how much of a difference partisan control makes (spoiler: a lot). 3/27

Read 27 tweets

Michelle B.

@iDreamer18

House Democratic challengers

Kevin McCarthy -
@KimMangone

Matt Gaetz-
@PhilEhr

Devin Nunes -
@PhilArballo2020

Jim Jordan -
@ShannonFreshour

(Mark Meadows seat)
@ColMorrisDavis

Elise Stefanik -
@TedraCobb

John Ratcliffe -
@RussellFosterTX

@KimMangone @PhilEhr @PhilArballo2020 @ShannonFreshour @ColMorrisDavis @TedraCobb @RussellFosterTX Jeff Van Drew
@BrigidforSJ

@KimMangone @PhilEhr @PhilArballo2020 @ShannonFreshour @ColMorrisDavis @TedraCobb @RussellFosterTX @BrigidforSJ Thank you to everyone who is adding on, I'm liking them then I can go back and add to this thread, keep them coming.👍

Read 21 tweets

Comfortably Smug

@ComfortablySmug

Time for super pacs to start running ads in these districts letting voters know if these people vote for impeachment, they get voted out. Period.

We're gonna make these people famous today

From now until Wednesday, it's time to put pressure on these Dems:

You vote with AOC and impeachment, and you're toast. She's in New York City and doesn't give a shit you're in a red district.

Voting for censure is your only way out

HERE THEY ARE

PRESSURE THEM TO VOTE AGAINST IMPEACHMENT. ONLY CENSURE CAN SAVE THEM.

Tom O’Halleran #AZ01

@RepOHalleran

@TomOHalleran

(202) 225-3361

Lucy McBath #GA06

@RepLucyMcBath

@LucyMcBath

(202) 225-4501

Read 11 tweets