Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #VA02
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There are 18 Republican House Members representing Districts which Biden won in 2020:
#AZ01 - Schweikert
#AZ06 - Ciscomani*
#CA13 - Duarte*
#CA22 - Valadao
#CA27 - Garcia
#CA40 - Kim
#CA45 - Steele
#NE02 - Bacon
#NJ07 - Kean
#NY01 - LaLota*
#NY03 - Santos*
#NY04 - D’Esposito*
#AZ01 - Schweikert
#AZ06 - Ciscomani*
#CA13 - Duarte*
#CA22 - Valadao
#CA27 - Garcia
#CA40 - Kim
#CA45 - Steele
#NE02 - Bacon
#NJ07 - Kean
#NY01 - LaLota*
#NY03 - Santos*
#NY04 - D’Esposito*
So, here's how redistricting and, in some cases, gerrymandering, helped the Republicans take the House:
Again, Republicans had full control over redistricting in 17 states (AL, AR, FL, GA, IN, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NH, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX and WV).
Again, Republicans had full control over redistricting in 17 states (AL, AR, FL, GA, IN, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NH, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX and WV).
Democrats had full control over redistricting in 7 states (IL, MD, MA, NV, NM, OR and RI).
There were 3 states in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Republicans could override them (IA, OH and UT).
There were 3 states in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Republicans could override them (IA, OH and UT).
And there was 1 state in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Democrats could override them (NY).
Because of the 2020 Census, CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA and WV all lost House seats.
Because of the 2020 Census, CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA and WV all lost House seats.
2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
This is a spreadsheet of Cook Report races which I made based on currently reported results (9am Wed).
+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning
Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.
#Election2022
+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning
Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.
#Election2022
We watched 135+ debates so you didn’t have to — and Democrats said some crazy things.
Here are some of the most insane debate moments from Democrats this cycle.
🧵 THREAD.
Here are some of the most insane debate moments from Democrats this cycle.
🧵 THREAD.
Minnesota Democrat Rep. Angie Craig: “I will never stop standing up for Big Pharma and standing against my constituents!” #MN02
Oregon Democrat Tina Kotek called for "meth stabilization center[s]" in Portland — "in addition to making [full drug decriminalization] work." #ORGov
🤨
🤨
Final Georgia EV update:
Exclamation point on Friday: +244K
EV total = nominally over 2.5mm
Context: Warnock campaign aspired to a 2.1mm EV cycle target. Anything >2.3mm = terrific, anything >2.4mm = almost unthinkable.
And then 2.5mm happened.
Gender spread? Women +10 !!!!
Exclamation point on Friday: +244K
EV total = nominally over 2.5mm
Context: Warnock campaign aspired to a 2.1mm EV cycle target. Anything >2.3mm = terrific, anything >2.4mm = almost unthinkable.
And then 2.5mm happened.
Gender spread? Women +10 !!!!
Context most favorable to Walker: Old Dixiecrats (white men & women >50yrs) showed up huge. Older white voters, both wealthy suburban & rural, are the largest % participation rate strata by a large measure.
Walker campaign did everything it needed to do to feed the MAGA beast…
Walker campaign did everything it needed to do to feed the MAGA beast…
That as given, GOP has a numbers problem along the Old Dixie I-95 corridor in VA, NC & in GA.
The pluses: older white voters are a group that has ardently showed up at rates >80% of RVs & is now breaking ~85% GOP straight ticket. It’s also a cluster growing on a nominal basis.
The pluses: older white voters are a group that has ardently showed up at rates >80% of RVs & is now breaking ~85% GOP straight ticket. It’s also a cluster growing on a nominal basis.
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
The @NRCC is out with what's likely it's final major buy ahead of the election, dropping $19.5 million in 29 House races and finally pulling ahead of their 2020 pace, logging $84.4 million in general election IEs.
Every state has critical races on the ballot — & some are facing a perfect storm where so much is on the line at once.
So I'm starting this ongoing thread of all states, to encapsulate as many stakes as I can for a state within 280 characters. As I did in 2020. Let’s go! 🧵
So I'm starting this ongoing thread of all states, to encapsulate as many stakes as I can for a state within 280 characters. As I did in 2020. Let’s go! 🧵
1️⃣ I have to start with Michigan
—Ballot measure to overturn abortion ban
—Another to protect elections system
—Supreme court may flip
—Election denier up for SoS
—Governorship, AG, trifecta all at stake
—Can Dems flip state Sen. for 1st time in decades?
—Central for U.S. House
—Ballot measure to overturn abortion ban
—Another to protect elections system
—Supreme court may flip
—Election denier up for SoS
—Governorship, AG, trifecta all at stake
—Can Dems flip state Sen. for 1st time in decades?
—Central for U.S. House
2️⃣ Arizona:
—May decide U.S. Senate
—Key House races
—Election deniers up for Gov, AG, SoS
—Measures to weaken ballot initiatives, tighten voter ID
—Measure on tuition for immigrants
—Prosecutor of nation's 4th biggest county
—PSC flips?
—Horne's comeback?
—🎇for school boards
—May decide U.S. Senate
—Key House races
—Election deniers up for Gov, AG, SoS
—Measures to weaken ballot initiatives, tighten voter ID
—Measure on tuition for immigrants
—Prosecutor of nation's 4th biggest county
—PSC flips?
—Horne's comeback?
—🎇for school boards
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes tonight's filing dump, dropping $24.9 million in 39 races, bringing its general election IE spending to $175,411,754, more than the $173,430,579 spent by the Democratic House Majority PAC and the DCCC combined.
Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.
*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65.
There's the spending boom I was waiting for...the NRCC drops $19.27 million on 31 House races, pulling ahead of its 2020 pace and adding the Biden +20% #PA12 to the board as targeted seat #64, backing Mike Doyle for retiring 14-term Dem Mike Doyle's seat.
Friday night's filing dump from the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes after a $23.15 million torrent of spending spread across 43 targeted House races.
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
Congressional Leadership Fund continues to run well ahead of their pace from past cycles and is running laps around the Democratic House Majority PAC, outspending their counterpart $120.9M to $40.7M.
The Democratic House Majority PAC's weekly independent expenditure dump adds another $9.08 million in 34 House races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
The House GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC wraps up its Friday spending dump, finishing up at $22 million deployed across 42 House races.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
32 days out, @CLFSuperPAC's general election spending is running ~$60 million ahead of their breakneck 2020 pace.
A pair of major filings from the @dccc and @NRCC within seconds of one another...the DCCC dropping $16.8 million in 33 races and the NRCC still holding back and deploying $5.59M in 9 races.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
Thread: which party is "ahead" in redistricting? In my view, it's close to a wash. But the truth is, it depends which metric you use.
As @Nate_Cohn has alluded, tracking by district partisanship (slight Dem gain) differs from tracking by seat control (neutral/slight GOP gain).
As @Nate_Cohn has alluded, tracking by district partisanship (slight Dem gain) differs from tracking by seat control (neutral/slight GOP gain).
New Jersey's new map is a perfect illustration. By @CookPolitical PVI (a measure of districts' 16/20 prez performance vs. national result), three seats have gone from R-leaning to D-leaning: #NJ03, #NJ05 and #NJ11.
Meanwhile, one seat moves from D-leaning to R-leaning: #NJ07.
Meanwhile, one seat moves from D-leaning to R-leaning: #NJ07.
By district partisanship metrics, that sounds like a great deal for Dems. And it mostly is!
However, Dems currently hold *all four* of these seats. That means the new map's most likely practical outcome in 2022 is still a Dem loss of one seat (9D-3R, down from 10D-2R in 2020).
However, Dems currently hold *all four* of these seats. That means the new map's most likely practical outcome in 2022 is still a Dem loss of one seat (9D-3R, down from 10D-2R in 2020).
New: Virginia special masters' map eliminates Abigail Spanberger's (D) current suburban Richmond #VA07 & turns it into a safe Dem seat in Northern Virginia. Rep. Elaine Luria's #VA02 would remain highly competitive, for a 6D-4R-1C split overall.
By the numbers, this might be a slightly better map for Dems than the current one (5D-4R-2C), but much better for Republicans than had Democrats retained redistricting power and drawn an 8D-3R gerrymander.
VIRGINIA: Dems hold a 7D-4R lead on the current map (below). But in 2020, Dems/voters approved a bipartisan commission that's proven dysfunctional thus far, likely punting redistricting to the right-leaning VA Supreme Court. Here's why that's a big deal...
Of the nation's current 435 House districts, 226 voted for Trump in '16 and 209 voted for Clinton.
Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.
Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.
🗳🇺🇸1. Tremendo que Virginia-05 vaya a estar en juego este noviembre (#VA05). Este es el distrito de aquel congresista republicano que tenía un fetiche random con Bigfoot. Es un distrito muy republicano y los demócratas lo tienen a tiro de piedra. #CongresoD3N
🗳🇺🇸2. Pensad que es un distrito rural y de valores tradicionales. Así se entiende mejor el anuncio del candidato demócrata, el doctor Cameron Webb:
5 days ago, I tweeted that I was angry.
I channeled my anger into action & created plans to flip the House from 🔵🔜🔴.
President Trump even retweeted me 4 times.
The fact of the matter is that no one is coming to save us & we need to to it ourselves.
#StopTalkingStartDoing
I channeled my anger into action & created plans to flip the House from 🔵🔜🔴.
President Trump even retweeted me 4 times.
The fact of the matter is that no one is coming to save us & we need to to it ourselves.
#StopTalkingStartDoing
In 2018, the democrats flipped California’s 25th Congressional District from red to blue.
Disgraced democrat Katie Hill resigned, leaving the seat vacant.
There’s a special election to fill the seat on May 12th.
You can sign up to make phone calls here:
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI…
Disgraced democrat Katie Hill resigned, leaving the seat vacant.
There’s a special election to fill the seat on May 12th.
You can sign up to make phone calls here:
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI…
California’s 39th Congressional District is flippable from 🔵🔜🔴.
Our Republican candidate is @YoungKimCA.
docs.google.com/document/d/1BZ…
#CA39
Our Republican candidate is @YoungKimCA.
docs.google.com/document/d/1BZ…
#CA39
I'm angry,
but also at myself.
The truth is: We've given up our rights — 1 by 1 — & allowed the gov't to trample over us.
We let it happen.
I'm channeling my anger into action.
Working on a project to identify vulnerable House dems & connect Republicans in those districts.
but also at myself.
The truth is: We've given up our rights — 1 by 1 — & allowed the gov't to trample over us.
We let it happen.
I'm channeling my anger into action.
Working on a project to identify vulnerable House dems & connect Republicans in those districts.
Here’s an example of what I’m working on:
docs.google.com/document/d/14Q…
Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District is flippable.
#VA02
docs.google.com/document/d/14Q…
Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District is flippable.
#VA02
Georgia’s 6th District is flippable.
This one’s for you, Cobb, Fulton, & Dekalb Counties.
docs.google.com/document/d/1ma…
#GA06
This one’s for you, Cobb, Fulton, & Dekalb Counties.
docs.google.com/document/d/1ma…
#GA06
