Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #TX34
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So, here's how redistricting and, in some cases, gerrymandering, helped the Republicans take the House:
Again, Republicans had full control over redistricting in 17 states (AL, AR, FL, GA, IN, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NH, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX and WV).
Again, Republicans had full control over redistricting in 17 states (AL, AR, FL, GA, IN, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NH, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX and WV).
Democrats had full control over redistricting in 7 states (IL, MD, MA, NV, NM, OR and RI).
There were 3 states in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Republicans could override them (IA, OH and UT).
There were 3 states in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Republicans could override them (IA, OH and UT).
And there was 1 state in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Democrats could override them (NY).
Because of the 2020 Census, CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA and WV all lost House seats.
Because of the 2020 Census, CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA and WV all lost House seats.
This is a spreadsheet of Cook Report races which I made based on currently reported results (9am Wed).
+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning
Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.
#Election2022
+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning
Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.
#Election2022
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
The @NRCC is out with what's likely it's final major buy ahead of the election, dropping $19.5 million in 29 House races and finally pulling ahead of their 2020 pace, logging $84.4 million in general election IEs.
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes tonight's filing dump, dropping $24.9 million in 39 races, bringing its general election IE spending to $175,411,754, more than the $173,430,579 spent by the Democratic House Majority PAC and the DCCC combined.
Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.
*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65.
There's the spending boom I was waiting for...the NRCC drops $19.27 million on 31 House races, pulling ahead of its 2020 pace and adding the Biden +20% #PA12 to the board as targeted seat #64, backing Mike Doyle for retiring 14-term Dem Mike Doyle's seat.
🧵1️⃣After she won the special election, @repmayraflores has dedicated hours and hours of air time in interviews for the traditional media, especially for the conservative TV channel @FoxNews,but she didn’t have time for a debate in order to explain her proposals to #tx34 voters.
2️⃣ Here are some questions that I wish you could answer widely that they were arose from the debate that you did not attend.
📌 Why did you vote against a bill on more security in schools after the Uvalde massacre?
📌 Why did you vote against a bill on more security in schools after the Uvalde massacre?
3️⃣ 📌 Why did you vote against senior residents getting medicine at low cost?
📌 Why did you vote against diabetes patients getting insulin for $35?
📌 Why did you vote against diabetes patients getting insulin for $35?
The Democratic House Majority PAC goes up with $17.47 million in ads across 40 districts, including the first spending by any of the big four committees in Josh Harder's #CA09, bringing the number of targeted House seats to an even 60.
The @dccc's Tuesday night dump at 3 weeks out adds another $12.57M in spending across 25 races, bringing their general election expenditures to $64 million as the NRCC continues to hold back, logging less than $30 million in IEs.
On media call, Abbott campaign says it expects turnout to go over 10M, as high as 10.6 or as low as 9.8.
2020 turnout was 11.3, 2018 was 8.4 #TXGOV
2020 turnout was 11.3, 2018 was 8.4 #TXGOV
"Every indication we have, we're gonna win Tarrant County," Abbott strategist Dave Carney says. He adds they "feel very good" about Tarrant, but "it's competitive, not trying to slough if off, it's going to be a battle." #TXGOV
Friday night's filing dump from the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes after a $23.15 million torrent of spending spread across 43 targeted House races.
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
Congressional Leadership Fund continues to run well ahead of their pace from past cycles and is running laps around the Democratic House Majority PAC, outspending their counterpart $120.9M to $40.7M.
The House GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC wraps up its Friday spending dump, finishing up at $22 million deployed across 42 House races.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
32 days out, @CLFSuperPAC's general election spending is running ~$60 million ahead of their breakneck 2020 pace.
Did you know that:
A) There is a House GOP bill called 'The Life at Conception Act' (H.R. 1011) - also known as a 'personhood' bill - that would declare life as starting at ‘the moment of fertilization'?
B) Of its 166 co-sponsors, many are running in very close races?
🧵👇
A) There is a House GOP bill called 'The Life at Conception Act' (H.R. 1011) - also known as a 'personhood' bill - that would declare life as starting at ‘the moment of fertilization'?
B) Of its 166 co-sponsors, many are running in very close races?
🧵👇
Co-sponsor: TED BUDD
Race: #NCSen
Democratic opponent: CHERI BEASLEY (@CheriBeasleyNC)
Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/beasley…
Race: #NCSen
Democratic opponent: CHERI BEASLEY (@CheriBeasleyNC)
Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/beasley…
Co-sponsor: MIKE GARCIA
Race: #CA27
Democratic opponent: CHRISTY SMITH (@ChristySmithCA)
Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/2021_we…
Race: #CA27
Democratic opponent: CHRISTY SMITH (@ChristySmithCA)
Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/2021_we…
🚨2022 FLIPPABLE HOUSE SEATS🚨
The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣
5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.
3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.
🧵👇
The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣
5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.
3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.
🧵👇
Race: #TX34
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)
Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores
2020 Margin: Biden +15.7
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente…
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)
Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores
2020 Margin: Biden +15.7
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente…
Race: #CA22
Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)
Republican: Rep. David Valadao
2020 Margin: Biden +13.1
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe…
Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)
Republican: Rep. David Valadao
2020 Margin: Biden +13.1
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe…
House special election results since start of June:
#CA22 (6/7, Trump +5): R+24
#TX34 (6/14, Biden +4): R+5
------(Dobbs)-------
#NE01 (6/28, Trump +11): R+5
#MN01 (8/9, Trump +10): R+4
#NY19 (8/23, Biden +2): D+2
#NY23 (8/23, Trump +11): R+7
#CA22 (6/7, Trump +5): R+24
#TX34 (6/14, Biden +4): R+5
------(Dobbs)-------
#NE01 (6/28, Trump +11): R+5
#MN01 (8/9, Trump +10): R+4
#NY19 (8/23, Biden +2): D+2
#NY23 (8/23, Trump +11): R+7
But the caution flag on Dem overperformance? These have all been low-turnout specials decided by a fraction of November's likely electorate.
Here's special election votes as a % of total 2020 votes cast:
#CA22: 37%
#TX34: 14%
#NE01: 38%
#MN01: 32%
#NY19: 36%
#NY23: 23%
Here's special election votes as a % of total 2020 votes cast:
#CA22: 37%
#TX34: 14%
#NE01: 38%
#MN01: 32%
#NY19: 36%
#NY23: 23%
For context: last November, when Rs massively outperformed in NJ/VA, here was the turnout as a % of total 2020 votes cast:
NJ: 58%
VA: 74%
This isn't to say the enviro hasn't improved for Dems. It has. But specials can't tell us extent of improvement w/ the fuller electorate.
NJ: 58%
VA: 74%
This isn't to say the enviro hasn't improved for Dems. It has. But specials can't tell us extent of improvement w/ the fuller electorate.
Are Latino voters trending GOP? Help us find out by helping us poll the June 14th #TX34 special election! All our polls are not-for profit volunteer efforts, crowdsource funded by political junkies like you! Donate to our poll fund & help be part of it👇
paypal.com/paypalme/RedRa…
paypal.com/paypalme/RedRa…
Anyone who makes a substantial donation to our #TX34 polling fund can get early access to our poll before public release. So please donate here and help us poll the #TX34 special election
paypal.com/paypalme/RedRa…
paypal.com/paypalme/RedRa…
And if you are wondering how good @RRHElections polls are our complete polling track record can be found here👇
rrhelections.com/index.php/rrh-…
rrhelections.com/index.php/rrh-…
Today, the Texas Senate is expected to consider the committee substitute for #SB6, the proposed map for Texas' 38 congressional districts, and several floor amendments.
We'll be live-tweeting on this 🧵 once it begins. Follow along: tlcsenate.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.ph…
#txlege #redistricting
We'll be live-tweeting on this 🧵 once it begins. Follow along: tlcsenate.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.ph…
#txlege #redistricting
Here's what #SB6, the proposed Congressional map (PLANC2116), currently looks like as voted out by the Senate #Redistricting Committee.
Viewer: dvr.capitol.texas.gov/Congress/0/PLA… #txlege
Viewer: dvr.capitol.texas.gov/Congress/0/PLA… #txlege
There were 12 pre-filed amendments for #SB6, the proposed TX Congressional map: dvr.capitol.texas.gov/Congress/44 #txlege #redistricting
The Senate #Redistricting Committee is meeting now to hear invited and public testimony on the new proposed Congressional maps, #SB6. We'll be live-tweeting on this 🧵. Follow along
Here's the map: dvr.capitol.texas.gov/Congress/14/PL…
Live-stream: tlcsenate.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.ph…
#txlege
Here's the map: dvr.capitol.texas.gov/Congress/14/PL…
Live-stream: tlcsenate.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.ph…
#txlege
.@joanhuffman says they'll start w/invited witnesses, who were recommended by Senate Redistricting Cmte members. She says next week, the cmte will vote on amendments and #SB6 overall. #txlege
1st invited witness is Gloria Leal, #Redistricting Chair for State @LULAC & on behalf of Pres. @Domingotexas.
Her #SB6 testimony will be somewhat general since they haven't had enough time to fully analyze the maps but plan on submitting more testimony/amendments later. #txlege
Her #SB6 testimony will be somewhat general since they haven't had enough time to fully analyze the maps but plan on submitting more testimony/amendments later. #txlege
Texas Republicans' proposed congressional map is up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight The map shores up #TX07, #TX28, #TX32, and #TX34 for Dems and adds a new solid-blue #TX37 in Austin. In exchange, #TX02, #TX03, #TX06, #TX10, #TX21, #TX22, #TX23, #TX24, and #TX31 are made safer for their Republican incumbents.
Dem Rep. Vicente Gonzalez's #TX15 also becomes a bit redder, but still a tossup, under this map. I wonder if he moves over to the safe blue #TX34, whence Rep. Filemon Vela is retiring. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Wow. This isn't even as aggressive a map as I expected from Texas Rs. It could plausibly be 24R-14D, w/ the chance Rs add seats in the Rio Grande Valley & Dems gain in DFW burbs over the course of the 2020s.
Proposed Texas congressional map is out: data.capitol.texas.gov/dataset/cf8703… #txlege
The two new seats go to the Austin and Houston areas
.@RepMcCaul loses Harris County in #TX10
TEXAS: Republicans face a redistricting dilemma. They want to win both the state's new seats, but also need to shore up all *nine* of their incumbents who sit in districts where Biden took 47%+.
The likely solution? Rs draw a new *Democratic* district in Austin. Here's why...
The likely solution? Rs draw a new *Democratic* district in Austin. Here's why...
Right now, the TX delegation is 23R-13D. But because Rs currently have the Austin metro area cracked seven ways (below), there are three R incumbents (Roy, Carter, McCaul) sitting in fast-growing Austin-area districts that are unsustainably trending left.
