Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #TX06

@baseballot

Texas Republicans' proposed congressional map is up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…

@FiveThirtyEight The map shores up #TX07, #TX28, #TX32, and #TX34 for Dems and adds a new solid-blue #TX37 in Austin. In exchange, #TX02, #TX03, #TX06, #TX10, #TX21, #TX22, #TX23, #TX24, and #TX31 are made safer for their Republican incumbents.

Dem Rep. Vicente Gonzalez's #TX15 also becomes a bit redder, but still a tossup, under this map. I wonder if he moves over to the safe blue #TX34, whence Rep. Filemon Vela is retiring. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…

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Nathaniel Rakich

@baseballot

Based on precinct results from Tarrant & Ellis counties (generously shared with me by @cinyc9), I see no evidence that #TX06 Democrats voted for Ellzey in significant numbers. (1/5)

First, there was no relationship between how Democratic a precinct was in the May 1 jungle primary and how much it voted for Ellzey today. #TX06 (2/5)

Second, the biggest turnout dropoffs from the first round came in bluer precincts, suggesting that most Democrats simply sat today's election out. #TX06 (3/5)

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Craig Caplan

@CraigCaplan

Texas state GOP Rep. Jake Ellzey defeats Republican Susan Wright, supported by former President Trump & is the widow of the late Congressman Ron Wright, in special #TX06 runoff election tonight. Rep. Wright died on Feb 7 after contracting COVID-19 & was also battling lung cancer.

NRCC Chair Tom Emmer “Congratulations to Jake Ellzey on a hard-fought win. #TX06 District has elected a staunch conservative who will fight Democrats’ socialist agenda of open borders, higher taxes and massive spending packages that are causing the cost of goods to skyrocket."

Once #TX06 GOP Rep.-Elect Jake Ellzey is sworn in, the Democrats' majority will be reduced to 8 seats in the House of 432 total voting members:
220 Democrats
212 Republicans
3 vacancies: Florida 20: Hastings-D, Ohio 11: Fudge-D, and Ohio 15: Stivers-R

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Dave Weigel

@daveweigel

Yeah, that's what I mean - Dem turnout could fall dramatically from 2017 but it'd be unclear if Rs are in any better shape, bc they junked the primary for a convention. In 2017, D turnout doubled R turnout and the omen was hard to miss.

https://twitter.com/aoxamaxoa/status/1402281249230626817

Sometimes primary turnout matters, sometimes it doesn't. In retrospect it was telling that 27 Democrats ran around Iowa ahead of the 2020 caucuses and turnout was actually down from 2016 in the R-trending parts of the state.

That said, one thing Democrats have found this year is that their voters are exhausted and just want to vote for whoever makes it out of the primary. This was a problem for them in #TX06 - lots of Dem voters assumed they could check out and pay attention during runoff.

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Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

One last note on #NM01 -- Democrats saw absolutely no "suburban reversion" against them, but they did see Hispanics come back to some degree; Stansbury improved on Biden's margins across the board.

But it's important to remember that they outspent the GOP by several degrees here

You can't win elections without spending money at some level. Without a high-dollar race at some level that defines the party and environment, you're going to see a lot more importance placed on spending as a result. It's a big reason Democrats got destroyed in #TX06 as well.

If it's any comfort, Democrats are not going to be lacking for money in this upcoming cycle in the slightest, and per @Redistrict's analysis, they do appear to represent way more wealthy suburban districts than the GOP do, which probably helps them out a lot here.

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Dave Weigel

@daveweigel

Slight improvement for Rs as early vote goes on; breakdown of turnout among registered voters is now 59% D, 29% R, 12% other.

So far, ABQ Dems not complying with the "de-mobilize when your party holds the White House" tradition.

https://twitter.com/DanBoydNM/status/1397588323154087948

This also emphasizes just how paltry turnout was in that Texas race. There are four days of early voting left (inc. today) and #NM01 is at 84% of the *total* turnout in this month's #TX06 all-party primary.

I've been covering the race closely (folks, subscribe to the newsletter) and one theme is that Stansbury, hit with "defund the police" attacks, did what the DCCC says more Dems should have done last year: Line up law enforcement endorsers and say how she supports them.

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Dave Weigel

@daveweigel

Some Dem disarray in #TX06: @RepRubenGallego, chair of CHC's BOLD PAC, says some groups (AFL-CIO, Collective PAC, 314 Action) "splintered our coalition" by backing Ds w no runoff path.

"Latino candidates are consistently second-guessed by progressive and Democratic groups."

Dem frustration has mostly focused on Lydia Bean, who went negative on Sanchez and had little support, but there were a ton of wasted votes for candidates who didn't seem to do anything but file for the ballot.

To be fair: Same on GOP side. I've already mentioned John Castro, who bought up a bunch of billboards and was never seen in person by any other candidate. He got 5.5% of the vote - give 400 more D votes to Sanchez, and that Castro locks Ellzey out of runoff.

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Tim Swain

@SwainForSenate

‼️Great Republican performance so far in the #TX06 Special Election‼️

Early vote across all three counties in #TX06:

Wright (R): 16.52% (+10 votes)
Ellzey (R): 16.49%
Sanchez (D): 14.71%
Harrison (R): 13.44%

🚨UPDATE: #TX06 Special Election

Wright (R) - 16.7%
Ellzey (R) - 15.1%
Sanchez (D) - 14.0%
Harrison (R) - 11.8%

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Jacob Rubashkin

@JacobRubashkin

And they're off in the #TX06 special election. First early returns (read: not predictive) coming in.

In 2020, Democrat Stephen Daniel won the early/absentee vote in Tarrant County 53-47%.

Early voting was more curtailed in this special than it was in the general election, though.

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1388646816879546369

Just got first numbers in from Ellis County, which casts abour 25% of the district's votes and is very Republican. It's where Ellzey, Harrison, and Sanchez are all from, and Ellzey's team has been very bullish on their strength there.

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Dave Weigel

@daveweigel

The Tarrant part of the district voted for Biden by 11 points; Dem candidates combined have about 40% of early vote there. Risk remains that they cannibalize vote and lock each other out.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1388645225283915779

Any Dem's path to a runoff is getting the most votes in Tarrant and getting enough in Ellis/Navarro to stay ahead of the GOP vote there - which is very possible if it's splintered like this.

And Ellis County comes in with Sanchez getting 1084 votes to 2050 for Wright, 2556 for Harrison, 3617 for Ellzey. Combined vote now puts Ellzey ahead, Wright out of runoff. Q is whether Trump helped Wright consolidate Tarrant County Rs and whether Sanchez did any better on e-day.

Read 6 tweets

Taniel

@Taniel

Polls are now closed, in much of Texas on CT. Follow along here as the results come in.

https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1388600177049620481

The San Antonio police union referendum? 50/50 in early results.

Austin’s *early voting* give a lead to Prop B, which would re-criminalize some activities tied to homelessness.

First results in #Tx06 have 4 candidates between 10% & 16%, so buckle up for a tight Top 2 race here.

Democrats are at risk of being shut out of the #TX06 runoff based on the results of early voting, which is far worse for them in it was in November.

https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/status/1388657154245242880

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Dave Weigel

@daveweigel

Looking more possible that Democrats will lock themselves out of #TX06 runoff, despite Biden getting 48% of the vote in the district. 2018 nominee Jana Lynne Sanchez has the most local support, but two other candidates stayed in and raised $, and Latino Dem turnout has been weak.

The other two Democrats with campaigns are unsuccessful 2020 state lege candidate Lydia Bean, who won the AFL-CIO endorsement, and nonprofit leader Shawn Lassiter, who has thin political support but backing from groups that want to elect Black women and STEM candidates.

Lassiter's endorsements list tells that story - a bunch of national orgs that found her story exciting got behind her. Some groups see this as a chance to promote her for a future race, low-balling the risk of locking Dems out of this one. shawnlassiterforcongress.com/endorsements

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Daily Kos Elections

@DKElections

Our comprehensive first quarter fundraising roundups are here! We've included every incumbent (except those retiring) and any notable announced or potential challengers. First up is the House dailykos.com/stories/2021/4…

And here's the Senate dailykos.com/stories/2021/4…

And if you want to play around with all of our fundraising data, you can download a copy of our spreadsheet right here (note that there are two separate tabs, one for each chamber) docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

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Shawn Lassiter

@ShawnLassiterTX

Urgent: We have a special election for Congress here in Texas. I am a Democrat and I need your help to flip this seat on May 1! And yes, we are going to flip this seat. Please retweet and ask everyone you know to follow this account and to join our campaign!

1/

My name is Shawn Lassiter and I need your help. I’m running in a special election for congress in 22 days. Here is a thread about being black; about science, and about education. It’s long but it means a lot to me and why I'm running.

2/

I am a STEM Educator & I didn't see a Black STEM professional until 9th grade. Some people NEVER meet a Black person in a STEM role. That is why it’s so awesome @CollectivePAC and @314action are backing my run for Congress.

3/

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Shawn Lassiter

@ShawnLassiterTX

THREAD ⬇️

My name is Shawn Lassiter and I need your help. I’m running in a special election for congress in 23 days. Here is a 🧵about being black; about science, and about education. It’s long but it means a lot to me and why I'm running.

I am a STEM Educator & I didn't see a Black STEM professional until 9th grade. Some people NEVER meet a Black person in a STEM role.

@CollectivePAC and @314action are throwing an event to SEND A BLACK STEM EDUCATOR TO CONGRESS will you join us?

secure.actblue.com/donate/stem210…

That Black STEM Educator is me BTW 👩🏾‍🔬

I was bussed to predominantly white schools schools starting in elementary. By High School, my white friends were slotted into pre-AP classes. They put me in a class a rung below, with no explanation.

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Patrick Svitek

@PatrickSvitek

Surprise! @DanRodimer just showed up at Texas SOS office in Austin to file for #TX06. Less than an hour until filing deadline.

Asked him if he was filing for #TX06.

"You know it, brother. Hey, everything's bigger in Texas, man — and you can see the size of me"

Rodimer: "I'm running because we need to fight to keep our constitutional-friendly states."

"We need fighters in Texas, and and that's what I'm coming here for. I'm moving back to Texas. I have six children and I want them to be raised in a constitutional-friendly state." #TX06

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J. Miles Coleman

@JMilesColeman

From me this morning: taking inventory of current/upcoming House vacancies. The Crystal Ball's ratings for special elections:

#LA02 Safe D
#LA05 Safe R
#TX06 Likely R

All three elections will use jungle primaries. OH-11 & NM-1 may also open up soon.
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…

And, of course, it wouldn't be an article from me without a Louisiana history lesson. Specifically, looking at how Julia Letlow’s #LA05 candidacy fits with a pattern (stories from @LamarWhiteJr & @RTMannJr are linked in). #lalege

If I'm discussing special elections that will take place in the next few months in my article, @skmoskowitz has a longer-term look at the 2022 House cycle. Seth's advice? Watch the generic ballot.

centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…

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Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

New at @CookPolitical: House rating changes in 20 districts, all towards Democrats. I can’t recall the last time we moved so many races at once, let alone in the same direction.

More @CookPolitical: for the first time this cycle, Democrats have at least as good a chance of picking up House seats as Republicans on a net basis. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…

(Here’s a graphic corrected for #WA03)

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Stephen Wolf

@PoliticsWolf

Whoa: TLC calculates Beto O'Rourke won a 76-74 majority of Texas state House districts, giving Dems a clear path to flipping the 9 seats they need for a majority. This is the most crucial chamber up in 2020 for congressional redistricting (h/t @trowaman) texastribune.org/2019/02/25/whe…

It almost blew up in their faces with several races only narrowly going GOP, but Texas' congressional gerrymander was a major boost to GOP in 2018. Under a nonpartisan map like this, they'd have likely lost 4 more districts (#TX06, #TX10, #TX23, & #TX25) dailykos.com/stories/2017/7…

Democrats flipping the Texas state House in 2020 & denying the GOP the power to gerrymander again after the census could be worth several congressional seats next decade, more than practically any other state

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1100077711022682113

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postcardsforAmerica

@postcards4USA

Hey #TEXAS #VotingMatters
Here’s a THREAD of All your Democratic Candidates
& Voting Info (Registration, Vote by Mail, Early Voting, being a Poll Worker with Links
Register by October 9 via here: votetexas.gov/register-to-vo…
Info at mytexasvotes.com & @VoteTexas
#Midterms2018

REGISTRATON in #TEXAS
Register to Vote by OCTOBER 9 #Midterms2018
Check you’re Registered teamrv-mvp.sos.texas.gov/MVP/mvp.do
Register here: webservices.sos.state.tx.us/vrapp/index.asp
Voting Officials here: sos.texas.gov/elections/vote…
Request for Postage Paid Voter Registration Form: webservices.sos.state.tx.us/vrrequest/inde…
thread

#earlyvote in #TEXAS
Find early voting locations here: sos.state.tx.us/elections/vote…
Or: teamrv-mvp.sos.texas.gov/MVP/mvp.do
Or contact County Election Boards here: sos.state.tx.us/elections/vote…
Early Voting for #Midterms2018: Oct 22, 2018 - Nov 2, 2018 (in person)
Early Voting by Mail return by Nov 6

Read 47 tweets

postcardsforAmerica

@postcards4USA

Hey #Texas! You're up first for #Midterms2018
MARCH 6, 2018
THREAD of All Democratic Candidates in All Districts, Photos & Links
#BlueWave2018
Register 30+ Days before votetexas.gov/register-to-vo…
Find early voting locations at County Election Boards here sos.state.tx.us/elections/vote…