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So, here's how redistricting and, in some cases, gerrymandering, helped the Republicans take the House:
Again, Republicans had full control over redistricting in 17 states (AL, AR, FL, GA, IN, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NH, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX and WV).
Again, Republicans had full control over redistricting in 17 states (AL, AR, FL, GA, IN, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NH, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX and WV).
Democrats had full control over redistricting in 7 states (IL, MD, MA, NV, NM, OR and RI).
There were 3 states in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Republicans could override them (IA, OH and UT).
There were 3 states in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Republicans could override them (IA, OH and UT).
And there was 1 state in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Democrats could override them (NY).
Because of the 2020 Census, CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA and WV all lost House seats.
Because of the 2020 Census, CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA and WV all lost House seats.
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.
*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65.
The Democratic House Majority PAC goes up with $17.47 million in ads across 40 districts, including the first spending by any of the big four committees in Josh Harder's #CA09, bringing the number of targeted House seats to an even 60.
The Democratic House Majority PAC's weekly independent expenditure dump adds another $9.08 million in 34 House races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
🚨2022 FLIPPABLE HOUSE SEATS🚨
The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣
5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.
3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.
🧵👇
The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣
5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.
3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.
🧵👇
Race: #TX34
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)
Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores
2020 Margin: Biden +15.7
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente…
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)
Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores
2020 Margin: Biden +15.7
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente…
Race: #CA22
Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)
Republican: Rep. David Valadao
2020 Margin: Biden +13.1
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe…
Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)
Republican: Rep. David Valadao
2020 Margin: Biden +13.1
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe…
To put more power in the hands of working people, where it belongs, we need to elect more Democrats up and down the ballot in 2022. Today, I’m endorsing six more candidates who know how to fight and know how to win:
.@StaceyAbrams lifts up the voices of Georgia families who have been counted out and left behind. She has a vision and a plan to help working Georgians succeed. I fought by her side in 2018, I’m proud to endorse her today, and I can’t wait to call her Governor Abrams in 2023.
.@TinaKotek has already gotten big things done for working families in Oregon, like raising the minimum wage, expanding health coverage, and passing paid sick leave and paid family leave. I’m glad to endorse her for governor so she can keep up the fight.
Big shakeup in DCCC's House battlefield this AM. The committee named 12 challengers to its "Red to Blue" program, added 3 members to its "Frontline" program, added 8 new GOP/Dem districts to its "In Play" list, and removed 6 GOP-held districts from its target list.
Red to Blue challengers:
#CA22: @RudySalasCA
#CA45: @jfchen
#CO07: @pettersen4co
#IA01: @BohannanIowa
#IA02: @LizMathis1
#IL13: @Nikki4Congress
#MI03: @HillaryScholten
#NM02: @Gabe_NM
#NY01: @VoteJackie4NY
#NY11: @MaxRose4NY
#OH01: @votelandsman
#OH13: @EmiliaSykesOH
#CA22: @RudySalasCA
#CA45: @jfchen
#CO07: @pettersen4co
#IA01: @BohannanIowa
#IA02: @LizMathis1
#IL13: @Nikki4Congress
#MI03: @HillaryScholten
#NM02: @Gabe_NM
#NY01: @VoteJackie4NY
#NY11: @MaxRose4NY
#OH01: @votelandsman
#OH13: @EmiliaSykesOH
Thread: which party is "ahead" in redistricting? In my view, it's close to a wash. But the truth is, it depends which metric you use.
As @Nate_Cohn has alluded, tracking by district partisanship (slight Dem gain) differs from tracking by seat control (neutral/slight GOP gain).
As @Nate_Cohn has alluded, tracking by district partisanship (slight Dem gain) differs from tracking by seat control (neutral/slight GOP gain).
New Jersey's new map is a perfect illustration. By @CookPolitical PVI (a measure of districts' 16/20 prez performance vs. national result), three seats have gone from R-leaning to D-leaning: #NJ03, #NJ05 and #NJ11.
Meanwhile, one seat moves from D-leaning to R-leaning: #NJ07.
Meanwhile, one seat moves from D-leaning to R-leaning: #NJ07.
By district partisanship metrics, that sounds like a great deal for Dems. And it mostly is!
However, Dems currently hold *all four* of these seats. That means the new map's most likely practical outcome in 2022 is still a Dem loss of one seat (9D-3R, down from 10D-2R in 2020).
However, Dems currently hold *all four* of these seats. That means the new map's most likely practical outcome in 2022 is still a Dem loss of one seat (9D-3R, down from 10D-2R in 2020).
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
Late last night, the Illinois legislature passed a 4th iteration of their new congressional map. Analyzed here: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
As with previous versions, it is heavily biased toward Democrats. There are 13 🔵 seats, 3 🔴 seats, and 1 🟣 seats. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
The map wreaks havoc with a lot of incumbents, especially Republicans. For instance, Mike Bost and Mary Miller are double-bunked in #IL12. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
The latest (final?) proposed congressional map in Illinois is up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight It's very similar to the previous proposal: 13 🔵 seats, 3 🔴 seats, and just 1 🟣 seat. It has an efficiency gap of D+13. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight The map makes #IL13, currently held by GOPer Rodney Davis, light blue. Davis could choose to run in neighboring #IL15 but that might set up an incumbent-vs-incumbent primary (either Davis-LaHood or LaHood-Kinzinger in #IL16). projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Illinois Democrats' new proposed congressional map is up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight I'd call it an even more aggressive gerrymander than their first proposed map. While it has a similar D+13 efficiency gap, it creates 13 🔵 seats, 3 🔴 seats, and only 1 🟣 seat (#IL17). projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight The map puts GOP Rep. Rodney Davis in a Dem-leaning seat & sets up a likely GOP incumbent-vs-GOP incumbent primary. It also creates a new majority-Hispanic #IL03 at the expense of Marie Newman, who's thrown in with Sean Casten. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Breaking: as predicted, IL Dems have revised their proposal to a safer, more aggressive 14D-3R gerrymander. It's still about as ugly as before, though. google.com/maps/d/viewer?…
Illinois update: this Dem 14D-3R gerrymander is both uglier *and* less effective than I'd have expected.
#IL03 Newman: Biden +6
#IL14 Underwood: Biden +8
#IL17 OPEN (Bustos): Biden +6
All of these seats are potentially flippable in a good midterm for Rs.
#IL03 Newman: Biden +6
#IL14 Underwood: Biden +8
#IL17 OPEN (Bustos): Biden +6
All of these seats are potentially flippable in a good midterm for Rs.
Additionally, #IL13 Rep. Rodney Davis (R) is far from doomed in this proposed Biden +11 seat. Dems had the opportunity to make his seat Biden +18 and every current Dem seat Biden +10 or more - and passed.
All things considered: this is just a really weird map. Besides the hideous lines, it carries a big risk of turning into a "dummymander" if Republicans have a good 2022.
It's not hard to see Dems' 14D-3R intent turning into a 10D-7R reality if things go really awry.
It's not hard to see Dems' 14D-3R intent turning into a 10D-7R reality if things go really awry.
ILLINOIS: per sources, Dems are considering redrawing #IL17 even more aggressively in light of Rep. Cheri Bustos (D)'s exit, in a bid to save their House majority.
In the 14D-3R example below, #IL17 would go from Trump +2 to Biden +3. All 13 other D seats are Biden +12 or more.
In the 14D-3R example below, #IL17 would go from Trump +2 to Biden +3. All 13 other D seats are Biden +12 or more.
A 14D-3R map would eliminate Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R)'s #IL16 (Dems figure he'd lose a primary to a pro-Trump R anyway) and severely threaten #IL13 Rep. Rodney Davis (R). Here's the hypothetical map shaded by partisan lean:
A big winner in this scenario would be Rep. Lauren Underwood (D), whose #IL14 would go from Biden +2 to Biden +15 after picking up Joliet and Bolingbrook.
ILLINOIS: has the potential to be Dems' biggest redistricting weapon of the cycle. Once again, it's losing a seat. But Dems could replace the current 13D-5R map (left) with a 14D-3R map (right) - and they might need to to have any chance of holding the House majority.
Illinois Dems are likely to have three main map objectives:
1) Eliminate one of the five downstate GOP seats to account for the state's loss
2) Protect all 13 Dem incumbents, including vulnerable Reps. Lauren Underwood (D) & Cheri Bustos (D)
3) Finally beat Rep. Rodney Davis (R)
1) Eliminate one of the five downstate GOP seats to account for the state's loss
2) Protect all 13 Dem incumbents, including vulnerable Reps. Lauren Underwood (D) & Cheri Bustos (D)
3) Finally beat Rep. Rodney Davis (R)
The Republican most likely to get eliminated? You guessed it: #IL16 Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R), one of just 10 House Rs to vote for impeachment.
Not only is his district geographically easy to chop up, but many Dems figure he'd lose a primary to a pro-Trump candidate anyway.
Not only is his district geographically easy to chop up, but many Dems figure he'd lose a primary to a pro-Trump candidate anyway.
Check it out!
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ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
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It's #ElectionSeason! #Election2020 has begun!
#EarlyVoting already in:
IL MI MN MO NJ PA SD VA VT WY
Just to get you in the mood, here's a THREAD of the specifics on HOW TO #VoteByMail in each State AND all your Dem Candidates for House, Senate, AG, Governor & SoS
#VoteReady
#EarlyVoting already in:
IL MI MN MO NJ PA SD VA VT WY
Just to get you in the mood, here's a THREAD of the specifics on HOW TO #VoteByMail in each State AND all your Dem Candidates for House, Senate, AG, Governor & SoS
#VoteReady
ILLINOIS #IL#VoteByMail
Application elections.il.gov/ElectionOperat…
ILLINOIS Democratic Candidates
#IL1 #IL2 #IL3 #IL4 #IL5 #IL6 #IL7 #IL8 #IL9 #IL10 #IL11 #IL12 #IL13 #IL14 #IL15 #IL16 #IL17 #IL18
#Congress2020 #NoSafeSeats
GoogleDoc: pc2a.info/DemCandidatesIL
Application elections.il.gov/ElectionOperat…
ILLINOIS Democratic Candidates
#IL1 #IL2 #IL3 #IL4 #IL5 #IL6 #IL7 #IL8 #IL9 #IL10 #IL11 #IL12 #IL13 #IL14 #IL15 #IL16 #IL17 #IL18
#Congress2020 #NoSafeSeats
GoogleDoc: pc2a.info/DemCandidatesIL
MICHIGAN #MI #VoteByMail #AbsenteeVoting
Apply online mvic.sos.state.mi.us/avapplication
County Clerks mvic.sos.state.mi.us/Clerk
MICHIGAN Democratic Candidates
#MI1 #MI2 #MI3 #MI4 #MI5 #MI6 #MI7 #MI8 #MI9 #MI10 #MI11 & SENATE
THREAD:
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Apply online mvic.sos.state.mi.us/avapplication
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MICHIGAN Democratic Candidates
#MI1 #MI2 #MI3 #MI4 #MI5 #MI6 #MI7 #MI8 #MI9 #MI10 #MI11 & SENATE
THREAD:
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50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs, SoS
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ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
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ILLINOIS Democratic Candidates
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Democratic Candidate for US Senate in ILLINOIS
Democratic Incumbent
Dick Durbin
durbinforsenate.com
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@DickDurbin
Here's a Thread of the Democratic Candidates for the #23GOP seats up in 2020
Democratic Incumbent
Dick Durbin
durbinforsenate.com
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Here's a Thread of the Democratic Candidates for the #23GOP seats up in 2020
IL1 Democratic Candidate for
ILLINOIS 1st Congressional District #IL1 #IL01
Democratic Incumbent
BOBBY RUSH
@RepBobbyRush
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