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Good news: There is hope for meaningful bipartisan cooperation to improve elections!
A major bipartisan election security measure not mentioned in this article: Risk-limiting audits, or RLAs, of election outcomes. #ElectionSecurity #ElectionTwitter 1/7
votebeat.org/2023/3/20/2364…
A major bipartisan election security measure not mentioned in this article: Risk-limiting audits, or RLAs, of election outcomes. #ElectionSecurity #ElectionTwitter 1/7
votebeat.org/2023/3/20/2364…
RLAs are hand-count samples of the physical ballots designed to have a high mathematical probability of catching and correcting an error that swung an election. 2/7
Election officials and lawmakers from both major parties, in states as politically diverse as Texas, Rhode Island, Georgia, California, Virginia, and Colorado are enacting and conducting risk-limiting audit projects. 3/7
Ohio's 13th Congressional district was rated Leans Republican by most forecasters prior to E-Day, but @EmiliaSykesOH managed to win the seat. It contains parts of Stark and Portage counties, and all of Summit County. She outperformed Biden, winning by 5 points #ElectionTwitter 
Sykes's huge numbers in Akron and the Canton propers were key factors in her success, but also doing decently in the suburbs around them (ex. Stow, Twinsburg). There are only 4 precincts (some of them split) from Portage County in the seat
Side note: I don't know how to split precincts. I included any precinct that there were results from, and the boundaries of the Stark and Portage County parts of the seat are slightly inaccurate
2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Are polls wrong this midterm because of COVID? If a 1000-person telephone poll—the pollster keeps dialing more numbers until they hit target sample size. But what if some demographic is MISSING & died in pandemic? This is NOT captured in current polling methods. #ElectionTwitter
2) We epidemiologists deal with these issues all the time. We are demographic pollsters for public health & study causality risk factors. Hence epidemiologists know a thing or two about polls and the weighting methods pollsters use. ➡️Your “weighting” can be off if people missing
3) Polling surveys can try to “weight” for demographics— but that assumes their presumed demographic % of sub populations is accurate. US census in 2019-2020 was extremely messy amid pandemic—data came mostly before end of 2020. As the top graph shows—R’s died more in 2021-2022.
Alright, #ElectionTwitter, time for a #NELeg fundraising report! The NADC campaign finance reporting deadline was 10/11 for the period 06/15/2022-10/04/2022. This thread will focus on races in Eastern NE (where the most contested races are).
LD2 - Sen Robert Clements (R) raised $23k, spent $19k & has $60k COH. Sarah Slattery (D) raised $28k, spent $28k & has $11k COH. My rating: Safe R
LD4 - Brad Von Gillern (R) raised $52k, spent $51k & has $91k COH. Cindy Maxwell-Ostdiek (I) raised $32.5k, spent $24k & has $13.6k COH. Rating: Likely R
Arkansas's counties are divided into townships. Looking at these can give us a more accurate sense of voting patterns across the state than county maps. Much of Arkansas voted heavily Republican in 2020, while Pulaski County and the Delta largely voted for Biden.
When we look at the change from 2016's Presidential Election, much of Arkansas, especially the northeast, swung heavily Republican. Central and northwest Arkansas swung left, though.
The 2016 Senate race was the closest statewide race in Arkansas in over half a decade. Boozman's opponent, Conner Eldridge, performed very well in southern Arkansas and the Delta. He strongly outperformed Biden's 2020 numbers, but this was especially true in Woodruff County.
This thread will examine education in the U.S. This map shows the most common highest level of education for adults 25+. Most of the country's highest is high school, but Associate's/Bachelor's is common, too. South/West Texas has a lot that don't have a high school education.
Because all of the categories split education levels, it can warp the map's perception. So this map combines all college degrees, as well as <high school and GED. Much of the west and northeast is college educated whilst the south and midwest are not.
This specifically looks at the percentage of residents 25+ with less than a high school education. South Texas and the broader south, as well as Appalachia, have the highest rates.
🚨 BREAKING 🚨
PPUSA has officially partnered with @RRHElections to co-sponsor a poll of the upcoming TX-34 special general election!
Those who donate $10+ to our #ElectionTwitter crowdfunding effort will receive early access to final results.
Donate: gofundme.com/f/donate-to-rr…
PPUSA has officially partnered with @RRHElections to co-sponsor a poll of the upcoming TX-34 special general election!
Those who donate $10+ to our #ElectionTwitter crowdfunding effort will receive early access to final results.
Donate: gofundme.com/f/donate-to-rr…
Race Background
There are 4 candidates running in the June 14th special election to fill Filemon Vela's (D) vacancy:
(D) Rene Coronado - No Known Twitter
(D) Dan Sanchez - No Known Twitter
(R) Juana Cantu-Cabrera - @DoctoraJuanaCC
(R) Mayra Flores - @MayraFlores2022
There are 4 candidates running in the June 14th special election to fill Filemon Vela's (D) vacancy:
(D) Rene Coronado - No Known Twitter
(D) Dan Sanchez - No Known Twitter
(R) Juana Cantu-Cabrera - @DoctoraJuanaCC
(R) Mayra Flores - @MayraFlores2022
If you're willing to donate to this effort (thank you in advance!), you can do so either at the GoFundMe link above, our website:
pollprojectusa.com/poll-crowdfund…
or direct via PayPal to RRH:
paypal.com/paypalme/RedRa…
pollprojectusa.com/poll-crowdfund…
or direct via PayPal to RRH:
paypal.com/paypalme/RedRa…
Kinda late but since Kentaji Brown Jackson is soon to be confirmed to the supreme I decided to make a comprehensive rundown thread of all the votes on supreme court nominees in 21st century! #ElectionTwitter #SCOTUS #SupremeCourt #KetanjiBrownJackson
Under Bush, four different supreme court nominations occurred. Although he withdrew two. The first was John Roberts was originally nominated to replace Sandra Day O’Connor but withdrew him when the chief justice, William Rehnquist died and instead nominated him for chief justice.
Nominated again on Sep. 6, 2005, he was a former member of Reagan’s Attorney General’s office and DC circuit judge, Roberts managed to garner broad, bipartisan support and was the last nominee to receive majority support from the party whose president didn’t nominate them.
Imagine getting killed by your election opponent: that's what happened to former TN state senator Tommy Burks, who was murdered by Byron Looper a month before the election. With support from both Rs & Ds, Burks' widow Charlotte ran as a write-in and got 93% of the vote.
(1/2)
(1/2)
Charlotte Burks would go on to serve in the State Senate for four terms until her retirement in 2014. On the other hand, Looper was given a life sentence in prison with no chance of parole in 2000. He died there in 2013 of a heart condition.
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#ElectionTwitter Here's how Dwight Eisenhower performed w/ various demographics in 1952 (1/2):
Whites - 57%
Blacks - 33%
College educated - 66%
High School educated - 55%
Grade School educated - 48%
Professional & Business - 64%
White Collar - 60%
Manual worker - 45%
Farmer - 66%
Whites - 57%
Blacks - 33%
College educated - 66%
High School educated - 55%
Grade School educated - 48%
Professional & Business - 64%
White Collar - 60%
Manual worker - 45%
Farmer - 66%
1952 GOP vote (2/2):
Protestant - 63%
Catholic - 44%
Republican - 92%
Independent - 65%
Democrat - 33%
East - 55%
Midwest - 58%
West - 58%
South - 49%
Protestant - 63%
Catholic - 44%
Republican - 92%
Independent - 65%
Democrat - 33%
East - 55%
Midwest - 58%
West - 58%
South - 49%
It appears that I made a mistake with one of the figures. Eisenhower only won 23% of Blacks, not 33%
In 2020, despite Ohio's 16th State Senate district going to Biden by almost 15 points on the presidential level, Republican state senator Stephanie Kunze won reelection in the district by a narrow 116 votes. In 2016, Kunze won by a solid margin.
#ElectionTwitter
#ElectionTwitter
Here's a gif showing the shift.
As we enter the last stretch of the #CaliforniaRecall campaign, I ran my model again and Newsom is pulling away. Compared a week ago, my aggregate has moved another 1% towards Newsom. Again, I have a feeling, as this race is getting nationalized, Newsom is gaining ground.
Previous model results:
From 2018 to 2020, Ohio's 56th State House district went from solid Democrat to solid Republican, a swing to the right of over 55 points. The district is solid Republican on the presidential level.
#ElectionTwitter
#ElectionTwitter
Here's a gif showing the shift.
Ok, as requested. I looked at @SKeshel analysis, which I will thread here.
All in all, pretty basic stuff. A lot of "this looks weird therefore it must be fraud."
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All in all, pretty basic stuff. A lot of "this looks weird therefore it must be fraud."
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Report starts with "Number of disputed ballots." Disputed by whom? There has been a ton of unsubstantiated speculation in this area with literally zero empirical evidence brought forth by those claiming disputed ballots.
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Non-Citizen voters:
Keshel claims to have a survey of voters by Trump's legal team for the estimate of 36k to 237k non-citizens (that MoE).
They then go after the "fed-only" which was .4% of cast ballots in Maricopa (8,114). Here's how they broke
3/*
Keshel claims to have a survey of voters by Trump's legal team for the estimate of 36k to 237k non-citizens (that MoE).
They then go after the "fed-only" which was .4% of cast ballots in Maricopa (8,114). Here's how they broke
3/*
From 2012 to 2016, Luzerne County, PA went from lean Democrat on the presidential level to solid Republican, a swing to the right of over 24 points. Prior to 2016, the county last voted for a Republican on the presidential level in 1988.
#ElectionTwitter
#ElectionTwitter
Here's a gif showing the shift.
In 2018, Arkansas voters voted on Issue 5, which would raise the minimum wage to $11 by 2021. Despite being a deeply Republican state, and re-electing their Republican governor by 35%, Issue 5 passed overwhelmingly, with almost 70% voting yes.
This second map shows how Trump in 2020 performed relative to the initiative. The initiative outperformed Trump statewide by 9%, especially in the northwest and delta. It also performed well in southern Arkansas. This goes to show how popular minimum wage increases really are.
If you liked this, please follow, like, and retweet! #ElectionTwitter @yeahitsJ0sh @wolfpacktetra @thepolitiguy @capipolitical @OklahomaPerson @DrewSav @JMilesColeman @PviGuy @maxtmcc @Shane_maps @Thorongil16 @CAFranchise @TadeuszMrozek2
Arkansas was one of a few states to get more Republican in the 2020 Election. However, it’s not all red. This thread will examine the state’s five biggest cities, and how they voted in 2020.
Little Rock is the state capital, and Biden won it by 40%. It’s growth is slow, and it’s a very diverse city, with whites only having a narrow plurality. Unlike other diverse cities, though, Little Rock swung left a decent amount.
Fayetteville is only very narrowly the second largest city in Arkansas. It’s very white, but Biden won it by nearly 30% because it is a booming college town. Biden improved on Hillary’s win by almost 10%.
#ElectionTwitter In this thread, I'll discuss the impact that the World Wars had on German-American voting patterns (fyi, this is an extremely long thread).
German Catholics voted overwhelmingly Democratic at the time, and were concentrated in places like eastern Wisconsin, Stearns county MN, Dubuque IA, Clinton county IL, Dubois county IN, Ellis county KS, and Putnam & Mercer counties in OH.
Protestant Germans tended to be Republican at the time, especially pietistic ones like Mennonites. The GOP did very well with these voters in places like North & South Dakota. Also, Gillespie county in Texas was staunchly Republican as a Unionist stronghold in the Civil War.
#ElectionTwitter Here's a map that I made of Theodore Roosevelt's performance by county as the presidential candidate for the Progressive party in 1912. Roosevelt received 27% of the popular vote, which is the best showing for a third-party candidate in American history.
From comparing the 1912 results to the Free Soil Party's performance in 1848, it becomes apparent that Roosevelt won a lot of Yankee-settled areas in the Midwest that were Republican strongholds
Roosevelt also did very well with Scandinavian voters, enabling him to win over 50% of the vote in counties like Kittson and Marshall in northwest Minnesota that were majority-Scandinavian, while also winning pluralities in the heavily Norwegian Lake Superior lowland in Wisconsin
1/4 I'm deleting this thread & redoing it for clarity since many folks are just ignoring what I wrote & reading something into it that I didn't intend. I'm not subtweeting you in particular or telling you what to do if that's not what you're here for, just friendly suggestions
2/4 #ElectionTwitter folks do a lot of cool stuff that people want to see, & some of y'all have funny/interesting takes on non-election topics too. But if you tweet 100 times a day & 10:1 about the latter, it makes it hard for people with limited time to follow you for the former
3/4 All I'm saying: Be mindful of your audience if you want to build up a following & get your work more broadly seen, but if you don't care, just ignore! I stay more on topic between 7am-7pm eastern than on weekends & evenings. Readers using lists helps
🚨 What are the political consequences of pandemics? 🚨
D. Gingerich & I analyze history’s deadliest #pandemic in a brand new @World_Pol article: “Pandemics & Political Development: The Electoral Legacy of the #BlackDeath in Germany”
doi.org/10.1017/S00438…
#polisciresearch 🧵
D. Gingerich & I analyze history’s deadliest #pandemic in a brand new @World_Pol article: “Pandemics & Political Development: The Electoral Legacy of the #BlackDeath in Germany”
doi.org/10.1017/S00438…
#polisciresearch 🧵
Brief summary (#TLDR): The Black Death (BD) had a significant long-term impact on Germany’s political development. Hard-hit areas introduced proto-democratic institutions; sustained experiences with participative government later helped reject antidemocratic & illiberal parties.
Long overview (starting here): In 1347, Europe was hit by a pandemic that killed 30–60% of its population: the BD. It had a major impact on medieval society which was based on feudalism/serfdom. Yet the BD’s impact varied greatly across space, leading to divergence in its impact.
#ElectionTwitter(International)- Now, continuing the maps of the last two Presidential elections in Brazil: the Southeast, the most populated region in the country.
Versão em português do fio, thread, novelo, como vocês preferirem:
When foreigners think about a specific place in Brazil they are probably going to think about somewhere in the Southeast. Both São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are there. Between one third to half of the population of Brazil lives in the region (80 of 220 million).
The growing Mid-Cities region between Dallas and Fort Worth surged to the left in 2020, helping to flip Tarrant County.
The Northern suburbs are growing quickly with white collar professionals, such as in Southlake (median household income of $240,000).
The Northern suburbs are growing quickly with white collar professionals, such as in Southlake (median household income of $240,000).
#ElectionTwitter
Note:
Median income is in 2019 dollars.
The cities vary greatly in their demographics.
Sources: OpenStreetMap, Tarrant County Election Archive, Census Quick facts
Note:
Median income is in 2019 dollars.
The cities vary greatly in their demographics.
Sources: OpenStreetMap, Tarrant County Election Archive, Census Quick facts
