Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ny19
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There are 18 Republican House Members representing Districts which Biden won in 2020:
#AZ01 - Schweikert
#AZ06 - Ciscomani*
#CA13 - Duarte*
#CA22 - Valadao
#CA27 - Garcia
#CA40 - Kim
#CA45 - Steele
#NE02 - Bacon
#NJ07 - Kean
#NY01 - LaLota*
#NY03 - Santos*
#NY04 - D’Esposito*
#AZ01 - Schweikert
#AZ06 - Ciscomani*
#CA13 - Duarte*
#CA22 - Valadao
#CA27 - Garcia
#CA40 - Kim
#CA45 - Steele
#NE02 - Bacon
#NJ07 - Kean
#NY01 - LaLota*
#NY03 - Santos*
#NY04 - D’Esposito*
The #TopMinion phone bank is the unsung hero of 2022
We made over 1,OOO,OOO calls for Republicans around the country, helping our friends win primaries and general elections
While some of them came up short, I'm confident we'll see them soon
Here's who we called for...
(1/xx)
We made over 1,OOO,OOO calls for Republicans around the country, helping our friends win primaries and general elections
While some of them came up short, I'm confident we'll see them soon
Here's who we called for...
(1/xx)
The #TopMinion Phone Bank called all over New York, starting with @claudiatenney in her primary in the new #NY24 district, which she resoundingly won en route to a landslide victory in November
(2/x)
(2/x)
If at first you don't succeed...
@EliseStefanik is a huge supporter of @marcmolinaro, and when her team asked if the #TopMinion Phone Bank could call for him, we did over 5O,OOO calls for him in the #NY19 special
While he came up just short then, he won in November!
(3/xx)
@EliseStefanik is a huge supporter of @marcmolinaro, and when her team asked if the #TopMinion Phone Bank could call for him, we did over 5O,OOO calls for him in the #NY19 special
While he came up just short then, he won in November!
(3/xx)
So, here's how redistricting and, in some cases, gerrymandering, helped the Republicans take the House:
Again, Republicans had full control over redistricting in 17 states (AL, AR, FL, GA, IN, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NH, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX and WV).
Again, Republicans had full control over redistricting in 17 states (AL, AR, FL, GA, IN, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NH, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX and WV).
Democrats had full control over redistricting in 7 states (IL, MD, MA, NV, NM, OR and RI).
There were 3 states in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Republicans could override them (IA, OH and UT).
There were 3 states in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Republicans could override them (IA, OH and UT).
And there was 1 state in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Democrats could override them (NY).
Because of the 2020 Census, CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA and WV all lost House seats.
Because of the 2020 Census, CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA and WV all lost House seats.
2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
#NY17 was a GOP flip; #NY18 a Dem hold both due to voters who Orthodox Jewish. #NY19 was a GOP flip due in part to Orthodox Jews.
Trump won 90% of this vote in 2020
Anyone who thinks running from Trump helps @HouseGOP's is clueless. It's passive at best; a negative at worst.
Trump won 90% of this vote in 2020
Anyone who thinks running from Trump helps @HouseGOP's is clueless. It's passive at best; a negative at worst.
IN FACT: Trump's work on prison reform and his overall friendly approach to Orthodox Jews were used in favor of Republicans; certainly in #NY17. A leading Grand Rabbi in one of these districts criticized his flock post election as to how Trumpism overtook the Orthodox community!
In fact, Thursday AM, @lawler4ny (who won by a few thousand votes due to HUGE support among Orthodox Jews) said on CNN that the GOP should move on from Trump in '24.
At night he was at a Kosher Deli. He took incoming for saying it.
I was there. I heard it. From many people.
At night he was at a Kosher Deli. He took incoming for saying it.
I was there. I heard it. From many people.
Polls close in 5 minutes in NY. Some races I'm watching:
-#NYGov (obviously)
-Congress: #NY01, #NY02, #NY03, #NY04, #NY17, #NY18, #NY19, #NY22
-Senate Districts: 1, 7, 9, 23, 37-44, 48, & 50
-Statewide Ballot Prop 1
-3 NYC Ballot Props
-#NYGov (obviously)
-Congress: #NY01, #NY02, #NY03, #NY04, #NY17, #NY18, #NY19, #NY22
-Senate Districts: 1, 7, 9, 23, 37-44, 48, & 50
-Statewide Ballot Prop 1
-3 NYC Ballot Props
Reminder: in New York, absentee ballots received prior to election day are pre-processed and included in unofficial election night tallies!
Those absentees and early voting are likely the first results we're seeing.
Those absentees and early voting are likely the first results we're seeing.
BTW I will not be live-tweeting results as they come in. If you want to follow along with results statewide, go to nyenr.elections.ny.gov.
You can also get results quicker and often more reliably from individual county Boards of Elections' websites (depending on the county)
You can also get results quicker and often more reliably from individual county Boards of Elections' websites (depending on the county)
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
The @NRCC is out with what's likely it's final major buy ahead of the election, dropping $19.5 million in 29 House races and finally pulling ahead of their 2020 pace, logging $84.4 million in general election IEs.
No update to our nonpartisan generic ballot poll tracker this morning for @SplitTicket_, mainly because we have seen no new generic ballot polls (!). But I thought I'd take this thread to go through where our aggregator was at specific days, compared to 538 and RCP.
For the sake of transparency, I'll put up that we have data for our aggregate from June 1 onwards. The data is in the table, on our site. However, we only display the GCB from September 1 onwards in our graphic, which is around when the LV screens begin to hit polls. OK, now...
So, something interesting here. I collected data going back to August 1. The #NY19 special, which Pat Ryan won by 2.4% in a Biden +2 seat, was on August 22. Here are the generic ballot aggregates for that day.
@FiveThirtyEight: D+0.4
@RealClearNews: R+0.2
@SplitTicket_: D+3.1
@FiveThirtyEight: D+0.4
@RealClearNews: R+0.2
@SplitTicket_: D+3.1
@FiveThirtyEight @RealClearNews @SplitTicket_ Part of this is because 538's model is "stickier" than ours and takes partisan polls as well, which isn't inherently bad -- it's just not what we do. The delta in our averages now is only 1 point, FWIW, so they have converged.
@FiveThirtyEight @RealClearNews @SplitTicket_ But, it's worth considering that perhaps there *was* genuinely a lag that private pollsters didn't pick up on. Impact/Trafalgar/OnMessage/Rasmussen all had leads of ~R+4 around then, which kind of drowned this out.
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes tonight's filing dump, dropping $24.9 million in 39 races, bringing its general election IE spending to $175,411,754, more than the $173,430,579 spent by the Democratic House Majority PAC and the DCCC combined.
Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.
*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65.
There's the spending boom I was waiting for...the NRCC drops $19.27 million on 31 House races, pulling ahead of its 2020 pace and adding the Biden +20% #PA12 to the board as targeted seat #64, backing Mike Doyle for retiring 14-term Dem Mike Doyle's seat.
The Democratic House Majority PAC goes up with $17.47 million in ads across 40 districts, including the first spending by any of the big four committees in Josh Harder's #CA09, bringing the number of targeted House seats to an even 60.
The @NRCC finally starts to unload its war chest in earnest, dropping $14 million in 23 races.
It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
Friday night's filing dump from the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes after a $23.15 million torrent of spending spread across 43 targeted House races.
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
Congressional Leadership Fund continues to run well ahead of their pace from past cycles and is running laps around the Democratic House Majority PAC, outspending their counterpart $120.9M to $40.7M.
The Democratic House Majority PAC's weekly independent expenditure dump adds another $9.08 million in 34 House races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
The House GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC wraps up its Friday spending dump, finishing up at $22 million deployed across 42 House races.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
32 days out, @CLFSuperPAC's general election spending is running ~$60 million ahead of their breakneck 2020 pace.
A pair of major filings from the @dccc and @NRCC within seconds of one another...the DCCC dropping $16.8 million in 33 races and the NRCC still holding back and deploying $5.59M in 9 races.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
Very disturbing to see that Gov. Kelly and many political strategists have somehow taken the opposite lessons from the #KansasReferendum on #abortionrights. Voters showed up just weeks ago, in record numbers, to SUPPORT abortion rights. This issue CANNOT be sidestepped! 1/4
Since the #DobbsVJackson decision, Democrats have been punishing the GOP for their anti-choice extremism, regularly outperforming Biden’s 2020 margins in elections across the country, from #NE01 to #MN01 to #NY19. 2/4
Kansas is the ultimate proof-point that when abortion is on the ballot, young people, women, and people of color show up to protect it. 3/4
Following a slew of Democratic overperformances (#NY19, #NY23, #MN01, #NE01) and a polling surge for them post-Dobbs, we have some ratings changes @SplitTicket_ to announce.
#WISen: Lean R -> Tossup
#PASen: Tossup -> Lean D
#AZSen: Tossup -> Lean D
split-ticket.org/2022/08/24/tem…
#WISen: Lean R -> Tossup
#PASen: Tossup -> Lean D
#AZSen: Tossup -> Lean D
split-ticket.org/2022/08/24/tem…
@SplitTicket_ I'm not saying Oz can't win. Nor am I saying Masters cannot. I'm simply saying that you cannot create a credible case at the moment to say either of those two candidates is favored, and that's what you'd need to keep a race at a tossup. Rs have a chance, but Ds have the edge.
@SplitTicket_ I will not be moving NH until the primary. If Bolduc wins, #NHSen is Likely Democratic.
Anyways, I'm sure this will produce well-reasoned, good-faith discourse!
Anyways, I'm sure this will produce well-reasoned, good-faith discourse!
A lot of people asking why @votevets went into #NY19 for @PatRyanUC when almost no one else would. It's not very complex.
Here's a quick thread on why we spent over $500,000 to help Pat win.
Here's a quick thread on why we spent over $500,000 to help Pat win.
First, @PatRyanUC is an incredibly smart and skilled candidate and public servant. We noticed that when @VoteVets backed him in 2018. He lost, but showed us a lot, and we knew his future was bright.
He then continued to serve in Ulster County and built a deeper base.
2/
He then continued to serve in Ulster County and built a deeper base.
2/
Conventional wisdom was that #NY19 would go GOP by 5-8 points, given that it is a midterm and the Democratic president’s ratings are in the red.
We saw it different.Pat could turn out his base, which was growing. We also saw trends changing nationally. This race was ripe!
3/
We saw it different.Pat could turn out his base, which was growing. We also saw trends changing nationally. This race was ripe!
3/
The GOP machine in DC...
- Voted with Biden on multiple key issues which means they can't attack it.
- Shun the guy who was a GOP POTUS 20 months ago.
- Runs away from their 2017 tax policy; Dobbs decision; FBI overreach.
Who in the GOP/independent should vote GOP?
Explain👇🏼
- Voted with Biden on multiple key issues which means they can't attack it.
- Shun the guy who was a GOP POTUS 20 months ago.
- Runs away from their 2017 tax policy; Dobbs decision; FBI overreach.
Who in the GOP/independent should vote GOP?
Explain👇🏼
This is without getting into the fact that the @HouseGOP a few years back with 241 seats delivered less on basic GOP policy than @HouseDemocrats with 220 seats delivered on Radical Lefty policies.
cc @jackpandol @MarkBednar @SamLBullock @M_McAdams @MikeKBerg @tomemmer
cc @jackpandol @MarkBednar @SamLBullock @M_McAdams @MikeKBerg @tomemmer
Senate GOP
- gave Biden more judges than any POTUS since JFK! Schumer with less seats than the GOP now blocked Trump more!
- said "let Mueller finish his job" for 21 months AND had their own 4 year collusion investigation, yet shot down any talk of 2020!
= Trump voters 😴
- gave Biden more judges than any POTUS since JFK! Schumer with less seats than the GOP now blocked Trump more!
- said "let Mueller finish his job" for 21 months AND had their own 4 year collusion investigation, yet shot down any talk of 2020!
= Trump voters 😴
