Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #PASen
Most recents (24)
The #TopMinion phone bank is the unsung hero of 2022
We made over 1,OOO,OOO calls for Republicans around the country, helping our friends win primaries and general elections
While some of them came up short, I'm confident we'll see them soon
Here's who we called for...
(1/xx)
We made over 1,OOO,OOO calls for Republicans around the country, helping our friends win primaries and general elections
While some of them came up short, I'm confident we'll see them soon
Here's who we called for...
(1/xx)
The #TopMinion Phone Bank called all over New York, starting with @claudiatenney in her primary in the new #NY24 district, which she resoundingly won en route to a landslide victory in November
(2/x)
(2/x)
If at first you don't succeed...
@EliseStefanik is a huge supporter of @marcmolinaro, and when her team asked if the #TopMinion Phone Bank could call for him, we did over 5O,OOO calls for him in the #NY19 special
While he came up just short then, he won in November!
(3/xx)
@EliseStefanik is a huge supporter of @marcmolinaro, and when her team asked if the #TopMinion Phone Bank could call for him, we did over 5O,OOO calls for him in the #NY19 special
While he came up just short then, he won in November!
(3/xx)
The Republicans lost #PASen by 263,000 votes to Fetterman.
To avoid this, the nominee would need to flip half those votes or inspire 263,001 other voters to show up.
How big is this task? The runner up to Oz in the primary couldn't find 951 votes to win from among 1.3 million!
To avoid this, the nominee would need to flip half those votes or inspire 263,001 other voters to show up.
How big is this task? The runner up to Oz in the primary couldn't find 951 votes to win from among 1.3 million!
Dr. Oz won only 420K votes from among 1.346 million in the GOP Primary.
This left 926K non-Oz voters up for grabs.
McCormick needed just 951 of those to beat Oz yet didn't do it.
But he would make up the 263,000 GOP vote gap in the general?
This left 926K non-Oz voters up for grabs.
McCormick needed just 951 of those to beat Oz yet didn't do it.
But he would make up the 263,000 GOP vote gap in the general?
Primary voters don't always choose the best general election candidate, but a person who can't win a primary can't win a general (where many of the primary voters are needed to win).
68.8% of the GOP didn't vote for Oz.
His margin was only 950 votes.
Yet McCormick choked.
68.8% of the GOP didn't vote for Oz.
His margin was only 950 votes.
Yet McCormick choked.
Some of "Trumps Candidates" won 50-68% of the high turnout vote. Is your stance that a quarter-plus of the voters that you need for the general are idiots?
Others (Oz) won only 32% of the primary so why couldn't you consolidate the rest 68% behind your "quality candidate"?
Others (Oz) won only 32% of the primary so why couldn't you consolidate the rest 68% behind your "quality candidate"?
Remember 68%.
68% is what @HerschelWalker got in the high turnout Primary so when you attack him as a choice, you are attacking those whom you need in November.
68% is what Dr Oz did NOT get in the primary yet the GOP couldn't consolidate the rest of the party behind quality.🤡
68% is what @HerschelWalker got in the high turnout Primary so when you attack him as a choice, you are attacking those whom you need in November.
68% is what Dr Oz did NOT get in the primary yet the GOP couldn't consolidate the rest of the party behind quality.🤡
Fetterman won 57% in the Dem Primary.
Why didn't Republicans find a Fetterman-like candidate and line up 57% of the vote behind him?
68% did not vote for Oz so I am sure if the GOP found a Fetterman Quality (🤡), that guy would win primary AND general.
Why didn't Republicans find a Fetterman-like candidate and line up 57% of the vote behind him?
68% did not vote for Oz so I am sure if the GOP found a Fetterman Quality (🤡), that guy would win primary AND general.
🧵There can be only one Trump: One pitch I regret not writing and trying to get printed over the last five years was that President Donald Trump is a one-time phenomenon. Not his ideas, I want to stress. But his candidacy and methods. Others who try to emulate him will fail. (1)
First, there is his money. He has a lot, and he knows a lot of rich and richer people. He is famously stingy, so he reveled in getting others' money to help him, which he could do. And he was famous, so he got a lot of grassroots money. (2)
Using this formula, @seanhannity and a few others thought Dr. Oz would be a good candidate for #PaSen. They turned their nose up at David McCormick, a solid conservative and former Trump aide, who had solid help from Chris Wilson's @WPAIntel et al. (3)
As I conduct the postmortem on #PASen, my thoughts keep drifting back to the one realistic shot Dems have at a pickup in 2024 - #TXSen. This is because I see one element of Fetterman's playbook that can be used there to devasting effect. I'll elaborate. (1/x)
Now, nobody should try to replicate him and his unique brand. Nobody can. It was a mixture of a lot of things that came together properly. But one thing that stands out and can be carried over to other races is the ability to brand opposition candidates as unserious. (2/x)
We already know Ted Cruz is deeply unpopular in Texas. That helped Beto a lot and made it close in 2018, but he didn't quite push/leverage Cruz's unpopularity in as aggressive or as joke-y of a way that Fetterman did. This is a guy who vacationed in Cancun, ffs. (3/x)
I’ll make a lengthy blog post breakdown of what happened in #PASen once everything’s in, but let me take the time to talk about why this midterm was so morale boosting for Dems. We found out that there are very clear limits to what the electorate is willing to accept (1/x)
from election denialism to abortion restrictions to allowing poor general election candidates through from the primary. Trump made things murky in 2016 and 2020, but we, along with GOP leadership, realize that you can only go so far before enough people decide to bite back. (2/x)
Furthermore, this election proved to Dems that not all is lost. Even in unfavorable midterms, it’s possible to do incredibly well even in R-leaning seats by nominating solid candidates, having a good ground game, etc. We’re not bleeding at all. Just need to focus. (3/x)
1/5 Kemp signed new election laws into place following the 2020 elections (meaning, it was predicated on 2020 having issues) and his opponent was @staceyabrams; hardly a bad candidate.
Yet, Kemp won by a margin of 7.6!
This blows up two major talking points about the midterms:
Yet, Kemp won by a margin of 7.6!
This blows up two major talking points about the midterms:
2/5 One being that talking/acting on claims regarding 2020 is a loser. The other: Candidate quality. (Fetterman won. High quality 🤓).
But hey Narratives live on even if there aren't facts to back it such as Clinton's 1992 win being due to the line "It's the economy, stupid."
But hey Narratives live on even if there aren't facts to back it such as Clinton's 1992 win being due to the line "It's the economy, stupid."
3/5 Clinton won only 43% of the popular vote in 1992; that's less than the 45% Dem Dukakis won in 1988 when the Reagan/Bush economy was booming. Only diff is that 45% in 1988 was not enough to win but it was in 1992 due to the split on the center/center-right among Bush/Perot.
#PASen
Now that my pre-election post is out, I need to lay out a few things about how tomorrow goes. Please retweet or save this just so that everyone is abundantly clear about what happens. I want as little stress on you guys as possible. (1/x)
Now that my pre-election post is out, I need to lay out a few things about how tomorrow goes. Please retweet or save this just so that everyone is abundantly clear about what happens. I want as little stress on you guys as possible. (1/x)
1. I'll start coverage shortly after 6 PM EST and look at what we're getting on the ground before moving to feeding votes into my model once the polls close.
2. I will continuously tweet updates on benchmarks as I get them. IE - Fett needs 30% in Beaver, he's getting 35%.
2. I will continuously tweet updates on benchmarks as I get them. IE - Fett needs 30% in Beaver, he's getting 35%.
3. I'm going to be very clearly honest about how the night is unfolding as it progresses. If it's looking bad for either candidate, I will state as such. I may be a Fett shill, but accuracy matters.
What is the best song about each swing state for tomorrow? Putting together a playlist
For #NCSen: Raise up! Take Your Shirt off, Twist it 'round your head! Spin it like a helicopter by @DaRealPetey
@DaRealPetey For #OHSen, a namesake song for @TimRyan's hometown, Youngstown, which is incidentally becoming redder and the song kind of explains the desolation that motivated the WWC to vote for Trump.
Our final Senate forecast for @SplitTicket_. 49D-50R, with a runoff to decide it all in Georgia. If we had to pick a party to win the majority, though, it's the Republicans.
#PASen: Lean D -> Lean R
#NHSen: Likely D -> Lean D
#NVSen: Tossup -> Lean D
split-ticket.org/2022/11/07/our…
#PASen: Lean D -> Lean R
#NHSen: Likely D -> Lean D
#NVSen: Tossup -> Lean D
split-ticket.org/2022/11/07/our…
@SplitTicket_ Here's a table showing our changes from our last update. We've said everything we wanted to say and everything we think we needed to say in the article itself. We'll have one more piece out tomorrow on the overall environment. Thanks for reading, folks. Always a pleasure.
I actually had PA and NV *both* going R before @RalstonReports' update. But once we saw the data he put up and then saw his prediction for CCM, we pivoted. There's a good data argument for it, and we wouldn't bet against the guy who got Harry Reid and Dean Heller's victories down
#PASen - 11/7 Update
~65,000 ballots were returned over the weekend, bringing us to a little over 1.1 million votes cast.
Dem return rate is 79.5%.
GOP return rate is 78.1%.
Solid green = 80%+ returns, light green = 70-80%.
There are a LOT of breakdowns here. Read on...
~65,000 ballots were returned over the weekend, bringing us to a little over 1.1 million votes cast.
Dem return rate is 79.5%.
GOP return rate is 78.1%.
Solid green = 80%+ returns, light green = 70-80%.
There are a LOT of breakdowns here. Read on...
1. SEPA massively delivered in a last minute clutch and all Philly collars + Philly itself are either above 70% reporting or edging close to 80%. If you were concerned about them, you can breathe far easier now.
2. Montgomery and Chester shot almost 10 pts up in report rate.
2. Montgomery and Chester shot almost 10 pts up in report rate.
3. Dem firewall is now at ~550,000.
4. Allegheny is on utter steroids as usual with almost 82% reporting.
5. Earlier analysis pointed to Oz needing to win ED by at least 20 to have a shot, but this batch pretty much locks that in. He has a long road ahead of him.
4. Allegheny is on utter steroids as usual with almost 82% reporting.
5. Earlier analysis pointed to Oz needing to win ED by at least 20 to have a shot, but this batch pretty much locks that in. He has a long road ahead of him.
We watched 135+ debates so you didn’t have to — and Democrats said some crazy things.
Here are some of the most insane debate moments from Democrats this cycle.
🧵 THREAD.
Here are some of the most insane debate moments from Democrats this cycle.
🧵 THREAD.
Minnesota Democrat Rep. Angie Craig: “I will never stop standing up for Big Pharma and standing against my constituents!” #MN02
Oregon Democrat Tina Kotek called for "meth stabilization center[s]" in Portland — "in addition to making [full drug decriminalization] work." #ORGov
🤨
🤨
Doctors back in the house.
TRUTH BOMB on Mehmet Oz - theme: national security.
This guy is a US SECURITY THREAT. Heck, even GOP Mike Pompeo said it.
Bringing receipts, a thread. 🧵
#Oz #MehmetOz #PASen
TRUTH BOMB on Mehmet Oz - theme: national security.
This guy is a US SECURITY THREAT. Heck, even GOP Mike Pompeo said it.
Bringing receipts, a thread. 🧵
#Oz #MehmetOz #PASen
2/12
The photo here?
Yeah, that is Oz voting in Turkish elections in 2018. He didn't vote in US, nope, but he didn't miss a chance to vote in Turkey.
Don't get it twisted - no problem for someone to have a proud cultural heritage. But this isn't about that.
Let's explore....
The photo here?
Yeah, that is Oz voting in Turkish elections in 2018. He didn't vote in US, nope, but he didn't miss a chance to vote in Turkey.
Don't get it twisted - no problem for someone to have a proud cultural heritage. But this isn't about that.
Let's explore....
3/12
Here is Oz and Recep Tayyip ErdoÄźan, Turkish leader with a seriously checkered record. Semi-dictator, violent crushing of dissent, killing of Kurds, a long rap sheet.
You know who loved Erdogan? Donald Trump. and Michael Flynn.
Here is Oz and Recep Tayyip ErdoÄźan, Turkish leader with a seriously checkered record. Semi-dictator, violent crushing of dissent, killing of Kurds, a long rap sheet.
You know who loved Erdogan? Donald Trump. and Michael Flynn.
#PASen - 11/4 Return Rate Comparisons
I did a few comparisons of some PA collar counties yesterday. Let's take a look at some swingy/tilt ones.
Berks: (D) 70.6% v. (R) 60.9%
Chester: (D) 65.8% v. (R) 57.7%
Erie: (D) 79.5% v. (R) 72.3%
Luzerne (D) 68.7% v. (R) 60.7%
I did a few comparisons of some PA collar counties yesterday. Let's take a look at some swingy/tilt ones.
Berks: (D) 70.6% v. (R) 60.9%
Chester: (D) 65.8% v. (R) 57.7%
Erie: (D) 79.5% v. (R) 72.3%
Luzerne (D) 68.7% v. (R) 60.7%
It should be extremely alarming for R's that they're underrunning Dems by 10 pts in counties like those and up to 15 pts behind the statewide rate. They need to do reasonably well in counties like those and they'll be starting ED even more behind if this continues.
Chester in particular is eyebrow raising. Oz wants/thinks he can win it, but the R return there being stuck in the mid 50s despite their return rate being over 70 statewide is not particularly encouraging.
#PASen - 11/4 Update
~42,000 ballots were returned, bringing us to ~1,060,000 cast.
Dem return rate went up to 75.3%, breaking the threshold of 3/4s of all ballots returned.
GOP return rate is now 73%.
A few interesting observations with this one. Let's dive in.
~42,000 ballots were returned, bringing us to ~1,060,000 cast.
Dem return rate went up to 75.3%, breaking the threshold of 3/4s of all ballots returned.
GOP return rate is now 73%.
A few interesting observations with this one. Let's dive in.
Solid green = 80%+
Light green = 70-80%
Yellow = 60-70%
Light green = 70-80%
Yellow = 60-70%
1. More collar counties have caught up today and crossed the 70% threshold.
2. Dem firewall is now 520,000+ strong.
3. Delaware County will cross 70% in the next batch to drop.
4. We have a handful of counties knocking on the 95%+ return rate door, should hit it in the next drop.
2. Dem firewall is now 520,000+ strong.
3. Delaware County will cross 70% in the next batch to drop.
4. We have a handful of counties knocking on the 95%+ return rate door, should hit it in the next drop.
There's been a lot of conversation on the merits of analyzing the early vote this evening. Since I'm doing a fair bit of it for PA, allow me to offer a few thoughts about it. (1/x)
Disclaimer: I will say this - you do have to be careful about doing stuff like that. It varies wildly from state to state in terms of effectiveness. A big reason why I'm doing this revolves around testing a wider hypothesis I have about a hybrid model of election analysis. (2/x)
Subsequently, many of you quite rightly wonder how and where I came out of nowhere to start doing analysis for #PASen on an in-depth level. It just so happens that this year and an election that I'm heavily invested in finally allowed me the chance to test my thesis. (3/x)
Since tonight is a major TWOFER for PA - Phillies AND Eagles, we're gonna hold off on our next TRUTH BOMB until tomorrow.
But trust us, it's a doozy.... 🔥
below is a thread for newcomers to our work: some prior threads & videos that explain #MehmetOz & what's at stake.
#PASen
But trust us, it's a doozy.... 🔥
below is a thread for newcomers to our work: some prior threads & videos that explain #MehmetOz & what's at stake.
#PASen
first, one of our prior TRUTH BOMBS - chock full of awful documented things about Ozzy pants:
#PASen - 11/3 Update (big one!)
~50,000 ballots were returned, bringing us across the threshold of ONE MILLION votes cast (1,017,019).
Dem return rate crossed another major threshold of 72.6% of all ballots returned.
GOP return rate is 69.7%.
Takeways below.
~50,000 ballots were returned, bringing us across the threshold of ONE MILLION votes cast (1,017,019).
Dem return rate crossed another major threshold of 72.6% of all ballots returned.
GOP return rate is 69.7%.
Takeways below.
Solid green = 80%+
Light green = 70-80%
Yellow = 60-70%
Light green = 70-80%
Yellow = 60-70%
1. All PA counties are now out of the "red" zone.
2. Montgomery County followed Bucks and finally got its act together with the ballots, crossing over 70% returned there today. Good news for Fett.
3. Another batch of counties will cross 80% tomorrow.
2. Montgomery County followed Bucks and finally got its act together with the ballots, crossing over 70% returned there today. Good news for Fett.
3. Another batch of counties will cross 80% tomorrow.
The doctors are back!
Friends, tonight's TRUTH BOMB about Mehmet Oz is here.
Tonight's theme: how incredibly out of touch can one guy actually be?
Danger of a super rich guy who doesn't live in PA pretending otherwise.
A thread.
#Oz #Mehmetoz #PASen
Friends, tonight's TRUTH BOMB about Mehmet Oz is here.
Tonight's theme: how incredibly out of touch can one guy actually be?
Danger of a super rich guy who doesn't live in PA pretending otherwise.
A thread.
#Oz #Mehmetoz #PASen
2/11
Oz is from PA, huh? So he says. Really he lives in a Cliffside, NJ mansion.
His wife's family lives in Huntingdon Valley PA; so he used that for his Senate run paperwork.
Only problem? He spelled it wrong! The name of his "hometown". Which really isn't. Obviously.
Oz is from PA, huh? So he says. Really he lives in a Cliffside, NJ mansion.
His wife's family lives in Huntingdon Valley PA; so he used that for his Senate run paperwork.
Only problem? He spelled it wrong! The name of his "hometown". Which really isn't. Obviously.
3/11
Then, a classic - Oz trying to be a man of Philly. Posing with a cheesesteak.
Philly wasn't buying it, not a bit.
Problem 1: Pat's and Gino's are fine, but mostly for tourists.
Problem 2: Even the Pat's guys (bless them) thought it was ridiculous and shamed Ozzy pants.
Then, a classic - Oz trying to be a man of Philly. Posing with a cheesesteak.
Philly wasn't buying it, not a bit.
Problem 1: Pat's and Gino's are fine, but mostly for tourists.
Problem 2: Even the Pat's guys (bless them) thought it was ridiculous and shamed Ozzy pants.
#PASen - 11/2 Update
A modest ~45,000 ballots were dropped, up to ~965,000 now cast.
Dem return rate is 69.4%, up from 67.2%.
GOP return rate is 65.2%, up from 63.2%.
D return rate advantage slightly increased to 4.2% today. Updated map and analysis is down here as usual.
A modest ~45,000 ballots were dropped, up to ~965,000 now cast.
Dem return rate is 69.4%, up from 67.2%.
GOP return rate is 65.2%, up from 63.2%.
D return rate advantage slightly increased to 4.2% today. Updated map and analysis is down here as usual.
Solid green = 80%+
Light green = 70-80%
Yellow = 60-70%
Red = 50-60%
Light green = 70-80%
Yellow = 60-70%
Red = 50-60%
1. Western PA continues to show its strength.
2. Dems finally crossed 60% in Philly.
3. Fulton, an interesting outlier, is finally starting to catch up quickly.
4. There'll be some major milestones tomorrow that will be worth commenting on, which you can infer from the numbers.
2. Dems finally crossed 60% in Philly.
3. Fulton, an interesting outlier, is finally starting to catch up quickly.
4. There'll be some major milestones tomorrow that will be worth commenting on, which you can infer from the numbers.
Y'all ready for another TRUTH BOMB tweet thread about Mehmet Oz?
Yeah you are.
Tonight, in honor of Bryce Harper's HR (Mehmet, he plays for the Phillies... you're welcome) - we're gonna belt one too.
Theme: #Oz lies.
A thread.
#MehmetOz #PASen #PASenateDebate
Yeah you are.
Tonight, in honor of Bryce Harper's HR (Mehmet, he plays for the Phillies... you're welcome) - we're gonna belt one too.
Theme: #Oz lies.
A thread.
#MehmetOz #PASen #PASenateDebate
2/16
Recently, a Columbia professor dished that #oz tried to get him to lie to the press.
You see, Ozzy-pants was revealed as a doggie killer at Columbia (well documented) - so Oz called his old "pal" and said:
dude, lie & tell them it wasn't me!
tinyurl.com/5dn3su7z
Recently, a Columbia professor dished that #oz tried to get him to lie to the press.
You see, Ozzy-pants was revealed as a doggie killer at Columbia (well documented) - so Oz called his old "pal" and said:
dude, lie & tell them it wasn't me!
tinyurl.com/5dn3su7z
3/16
but it gets worse!
Oz said (same cite) - "tell 'em it was the veterinarians!"
So let's recap: he tells a professor to lie, and then he throws the little guy under the bus. Poor vets, what did they do to deserve that?
Nasty little feller.
Check it:
but it gets worse!
Oz said (same cite) - "tell 'em it was the veterinarians!"
So let's recap: he tells a professor to lie, and then he throws the little guy under the bus. Poor vets, what did they do to deserve that?
Nasty little feller.
Check it:
#PASen - 11/1 Update (Map)
!! This is a very important one with some big takeaways. Read them below. !!
Solid green = 80%+ of ballots returned.
Light green = 70-80% of ballots returned.
Yellow = 60-70% of ballots returned.
Red = 50-60% of ballots returned.
!! This is a very important one with some big takeaways. Read them below. !!
Solid green = 80%+ of ballots returned.
Light green = 70-80% of ballots returned.
Yellow = 60-70% of ballots returned.
Red = 50-60% of ballots returned.
1. Turnout in western PA has ramped up aggressively as you see in this map compared to yesterday. Allegheny and its collars are doing extremely well.
2. Bucks County finally got its act together and has most of their ballots in. One less SEPA collar to worry about.
2. Bucks County finally got its act together and has most of their ballots in. One less SEPA collar to worry about.
3. You should see well over half of all counties cross 80% tomorrow.
4. GOP is starting to reach the end of their rope with their total returns while we still have a fair few more in terms of volume to bring in.
@Shane_maps @PNWPragmatist @battl2heaven @ChiCyph80
4. GOP is starting to reach the end of their rope with their total returns while we still have a fair few more in terms of volume to bring in.
@Shane_maps @PNWPragmatist @battl2heaven @ChiCyph80
The PA doctors are back at it … tonight another #oz truth bomb coming! This one will be about his medical dishonesty - fair game since he makes hay saying “I’m a doctor”
Ready for us, Mehmet?
We got some good stuff …
#pASen #MehmetOz
Preview below….
Ready for us, Mehmet?
We got some good stuff …
#pASen #MehmetOz
Preview below….
2/2
Mehmet’s dishonesty is as old as the hills.
Fresh today in the Washington Post - Mehmet’s research work was retracted and had a TWO YEAR academic ban … that doesn’t happen lightly, folks
We got more
washingtonpost.com/elections/2022…
Mehmet’s dishonesty is as old as the hills.
Fresh today in the Washington Post - Mehmet’s research work was retracted and had a TWO YEAR academic ban … that doesn’t happen lightly, folks
We got more
washingtonpost.com/elections/2022…
#PASen - 10/31 Update
~62,500 ballots were returned over the weekend, bringing us to ~855,000 cast.
Dem return rate is 63.6%
GOP return rate is 59%
Dem advantage in return rate remains stable at ~4.5%.
The map has been upgraded to the next level. Color key and analysis below.
~62,500 ballots were returned over the weekend, bringing us to ~855,000 cast.
Dem return rate is 63.6%
GOP return rate is 59%
Dem advantage in return rate remains stable at ~4.5%.
The map has been upgraded to the next level. Color key and analysis below.
Dark green = 80%+ of ballots returned.
Light green = 70-80% of ballots returned.
Yellow = 60-70% of ballots returned.
Red = 50-60% of ballots returned.
Purple = 40-50% of ballots returned.
Once 95%+ of ballots in a county have been returned, the county color will turn blue.
Light green = 70-80% of ballots returned.
Yellow = 60-70% of ballots returned.
Red = 50-60% of ballots returned.
Purple = 40-50% of ballots returned.
Once 95%+ of ballots in a county have been returned, the county color will turn blue.
Now for the fun stuff.
1. Dem firewall is now almost at 450,000+.
2. Collar counties are still struggling with their returns. They better hope their slower reporting is straightened out on Election Night or else it's going to be a long week for all of us.
1. Dem firewall is now almost at 450,000+.
2. Collar counties are still struggling with their returns. They better hope their slower reporting is straightened out on Election Night or else it's going to be a long week for all of us.
