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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
Iβll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
Iβll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Ξ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-β¦
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Ξ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-β¦
FINAL UNH poll of NEW HAMPSHIRE
#NHSEN
Hassan (D-Inc): 50%
Bolduc (R): 48%
#NH01
Pappas (D-Inc): 50%
Leavitt (R): 49%
#NH02
Kuster (D-Inc): 53%
Burns (R): 45%
#NHGov
Sununu (R-Inc): 55%
Sherman (D): 43%
State Sen/House/EC
GOP +1/TIED/GOP +1
We are in for a hell of a night.
#NHSEN
Hassan (D-Inc): 50%
Bolduc (R): 48%
#NH01
Pappas (D-Inc): 50%
Leavitt (R): 49%
#NH02
Kuster (D-Inc): 53%
Burns (R): 45%
#NHGov
Sununu (R-Inc): 55%
Sherman (D): 43%
State Sen/House/EC
GOP +1/TIED/GOP +1
We are in for a hell of a night.
UNH nailed the presidential/senate & NH-01 margins in 2020 in their final poll. Pretty solid.
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
The @NRCC is out with what's likely it's final major buy ahead of the election, dropping $19.5 million in 29 House races and finally pulling ahead of their 2020 pace, logging $84.4 million in general election IEs.
The DCCC is out with what is likely its final major buy before the election, dropping $8 million in 23 House races and adding the Biden +15% #NY04 to the board as targeted seat number 67.
(This is also the first direct independent expenditure spending by the DCCC to defend DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in #NY17).
Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.
*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65.
There's the spending boom I was waiting for...the NRCC drops $19.27 million on 31 House races, pulling ahead of its 2020 pace and adding the Biden +20% #PA12 to the board as targeted seat #64, backing Mike Doyle for retiring 14-term Dem Mike Doyle's seat.
The Democratic House Majority PAC goes up with $17.47 million in ads across 40 districts, including the first spending by any of the big four committees in Josh Harder's #CA09, bringing the number of targeted House seats to an even 60.
The @NRCC finally starts to unload its war chest in earnest, dropping $14 million in 23 races.
It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
The Democratic House Majority PAC's weekly independent expenditure dump adds another $9.08 million in 34 House races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
As Russia continues its aggression in Ukraine, they seem to be finding support among the GOP. Here are some examples of House Republicans siding with Putin. π§΅
Less than a month ago, nearly every House Republican opposed $12.3 billion in funding to help Ukraine fight back against Russian aggression. nytimes.com/2022/09/30/us/β¦
In May, 57 House Republicans sided with Russia and voted against Ukraine aid. congress.gov/bill/117th-conβ¦
The House GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC wraps up its Friday spending dump, finishing up at $22 million deployed across 42 House races.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/β¦
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/β¦
32 days out, @CLFSuperPAC's general election spending is running ~$60 million ahead of their breakneck 2020 pace.
A pair of major filings from the @dccc and @NRCC within seconds of one another...the DCCC dropping $16.8 million in 33 races and the NRCC still holding back and deploying $5.59M in 9 races.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
New @SaintAnselmPoll shows @ChrisPappasNH leading @kleavittnh 49% to 41% (7% unsure, 3% someone else) #NHPolitics #NH01 #WMUR
The @SaintAnselmPoll shows @ChrisPappasNH at 47% favorable / 48% unfavorable (5% no opinion) #NHPolitics #NH01 #WMUR
The @SaintAnselmPoll shows @kleavittnh at 39% favorable / 45% unfavorable (16% no opinion) #NHPolitics #NH01 #WMUR
#NHSen
Hassan (D): 51%
Bolduc (R): 40%
#NHGov
Sununu (R): 52%
Sherman (D): 38%
#NH01
Pappas: 47%
Leavitt: 42%
#NH02
Kuster (D): 54%
Burns (R): 36%
"Well if it isn't the consequences of my own actions" #NHPolitics
Hassan (D): 51%
Bolduc (R): 40%
#NHGov
Sununu (R): 52%
Sherman (D): 38%
#NH01
Pappas: 47%
Leavitt: 42%
#NH02
Kuster (D): 54%
Burns (R): 36%
"Well if it isn't the consequences of my own actions" #NHPolitics
It's by far the least discussed race but Sununu winning by 15% sounds about right.
Less than half of his margin in 2020, but still a big win.
Less than half of his margin in 2020, but still a big win.
Independents are backing Hassan 48/36, Pappas 48/41, Kuster 49/37 & Sununu 53/35.
Look at the results from last night's Republican primaries in NH:
#NHSEN- MAGA Republican won
#NH02- MAGA Republican won
#NH01- MAGA Republican won
All 3 of them are far-right election deniers.
For the sake of our democracy, this anti-democracy cult must be defeated in Nov.
#NHSEN- MAGA Republican won
#NH02- MAGA Republican won
#NH01- MAGA Republican won
All 3 of them are far-right election deniers.
For the sake of our democracy, this anti-democracy cult must be defeated in Nov.
Don't forget, the Republican establishment invested heavily against this candidate, but they won anyway. In fact, Trump didn't even endorse anyone in the senate race, but the MAGA candidate won anyway. This isn't just a fringe. This is what the Republican base has become.
Liz Cheney said: "The reality that we face today as Republicans...we have to choose, because Republicans cannot both be loyal to Trump and loyal to the Constitution."
At the end of the primaries season, what Republicans have chosen is clear. They must lose the election in Nov.
At the end of the primaries season, what Republicans have chosen is clear. They must lose the election in Nov.
After 5,608 votes in, 108 votes separate Don Bolduc and Chuck Morse in the #NHSen GOP primary
10,733 votes in now, Bolduc clinging to a 465-vote lead over Morse in the #NHSen GOP primary.
results.decisiondeskhq.com/sep13-2022-eleβ¦
results.decisiondeskhq.com/sep13-2022-eleβ¦
15,313 votes in, Bolduc up 398 votes over Chuck Morse in the #NHSen GOP primary.
Congressional Leadership Fund's $2.3 million intervention for Matt Mowers in the #NH01 primary may not have worked...
results.decisiondeskhq.com/sep13-2022-eleβ¦
Congressional Leadership Fund's $2.3 million intervention for Matt Mowers in the #NH01 primary may not have worked...
results.decisiondeskhq.com/sep13-2022-eleβ¦
π§΅π»π―πΉπ¬π¨π«: The Supreme Court lit 49 years of precedent on fire, creating the nightmare reality the Republican Party has worked so damn hard for.
Let's take a look at where we are and where the GOP will drag our country, kicking & screaming, if given more of an opportunity.
Let's take a look at where we are and where the GOP will drag our country, kicking & screaming, if given more of an opportunity.
At least three vulnerable House Republicans & three @NRCC-endorsed challengers support πππππππ ππππ‘πππ π€βπ πππππππ πππππ‘ππππ (including @BlackmanForAZ in #AZ02 who also π π’πππππ‘π πππππππ π€ππππ π€βπ πππ‘ πππππ‘ππππ ).
Democratsβ Infrastructure Deal will provide a massive fix for our nationβs roads, bridges, ports, and so much more.
These are real, substantial wins for our communities β so hereβs a snapshot on how a few will benefit: π§΅
These are real, substantial wins for our communities β so hereβs a snapshot on how a few will benefit: π§΅
ππ’π‘π‘πππ§πππ¨π§: Did you know 1 in 10 Connecticut households currently do not have internet?
Rep. @JahanaHayesCT helped deliver Demsβ Infrastructure deal to fix this. #CT05
courant.com/politics/hc-poβ¦
Rep. @JahanaHayesCT helped deliver Demsβ Infrastructure deal to fix this. #CT05
courant.com/politics/hc-poβ¦
π‘ππͺ πππ π£π¦πππ₯π: Rep. @ChrisPappasNH helped secure $2,000,000,000 for NH to fix the 250 bridges and nearly 700 miles of highway in poor condition, providing safer commutes for NH communities. #NH01
thecentersquare.com/new_hampshire/β¦
thecentersquare.com/new_hampshire/β¦
Of the nation's current 435 House districts, 226 voted for Trump in '16 and 209 voted for Clinton.
Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.
Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.
1st term #NH01 Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas will face Republican primary winner Matt Mowers, who was endorsed by President Trump, in the fall election per AP. Pappas first won election to House in 2018 with 53.6% of the vote.
NRCC Chair Emmer on #NH01: "Congratulations to Matt Mowers on his primary win. As a fmr State Dept official, Matt has seen firsthand the type of destruction Democratsβ socialist policies can have on hardworking families,which is why he is the best choice to defeat Chris Pappas."
NRCC Chair Emmer: "Pappas has spent his time in office voting for the socialist agenda of Washington Democrats that is out of touch with the Granite State and it is why he will be rejected by voters in November.β
New Hampshire and Rhode Island are holding House and Senate primaries today.
2nd term New Hampshire Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen faces primary challengers today. And in #NHSen Republican primary, several candidates are running to advance to November election including Bryant βCorkyβ Messner who was endorsed by President Trump.
1st term #NH01 Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas will face the winner of today's 5-candidate Republican primary which includes Matt Mayberry and Matt Mowers who was endorsed by President Trump. Pappas first won election to House in 2018 with 53.6% of the vote.
Time for super pacs to start running ads in these districts letting voters know if these people vote for impeachment, they get voted out. Period.
We're gonna make these people famous today
From now until Wednesday, it's time to put pressure on these Dems:
You vote with AOC and impeachment, and you're toast. She's in New York City and doesn't give a shit you're in a red district.
Voting for censure is your only way out
From now until Wednesday, it's time to put pressure on these Dems:
You vote with AOC and impeachment, and you're toast. She's in New York City and doesn't give a shit you're in a red district.
Voting for censure is your only way out
HERE THEY ARE
PRESSURE THEM TO VOTE AGAINST IMPEACHMENT. ONLY CENSURE CAN SAVE THEM.
Tom OβHalleran #AZ01
@RepOHalleran
@TomOHalleran
(202) 225-3361
Lucy McBath #GA06
@RepLucyMcBath
@LucyMcBath
(202) 225-4501
PRESSURE THEM TO VOTE AGAINST IMPEACHMENT. ONLY CENSURE CAN SAVE THEM.
Tom OβHalleran #AZ01
@RepOHalleran
@TomOHalleran
(202) 225-3361
Lucy McBath #GA06
@RepLucyMcBath
@LucyMcBath
(202) 225-4501
#MarchforTrump π’ππΊπΈπ―
Men & Women! ππΊ
October 17th @ 10 AM
US Capitol AND Locations across the country!
TrumpMarch.com
#KAG #MAGA #WomenForTrump #stopimpeachmentnow #StandWithTrump #standwithPOTUS
Men & Women! ππΊ
October 17th @ 10 AM
US Capitol AND Locations across the country!
TrumpMarch.com
#KAG #MAGA #WomenForTrump #stopimpeachmentnow #StandWithTrump #standwithPOTUS
π¨π¨π¨
π’We will be having protests outside of congressional district offices in the following districts.π’
π’We will be having protests outside of congressional district offices in the following districts.π’
