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#MiddleEastRainEvent update 15th Jan (2pm AST)
The last 24 hours of #ArabianStorms over the Arabian Peninsula, the storm area has changed trajectory and is moving south east along the Gulf coast.
The last 24 hours of #ArabianStorms over the Arabian Peninsula, the storm area has changed trajectory and is moving south east along the Gulf coast.
Here's closeup of the overnight storm activity over Saudi and the Gulf, again 24 hours.
For a scale comparison here is a measurement of the area of storm activity close to its peak, 115k km2. 
#MiddleEastRainEvent update 14th Jan
The last 24 hours of #ArabianStorms over the Arabian Peninsula, which looks very similar to the event from 1st to 3rd January.
The last 24 hours of #ArabianStorms over the Arabian Peninsula, which looks very similar to the event from 1st to 3rd January.
Corresponding satellite based estimated precipitation data over the same period.
/ENDS
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The leading edge of the next monsoon charged atmospheric river has arrived in the Middle East and the next phase of unusual possibly extreme winter weather in the region is about to commence.
The GFS 16-day rain forecast predicts a very similar amount of rain to the last major phase in this extended period of intense #ArabianStorms which finished 2 days ago.
For a recap of what has happened so far, this thread from this morning looks at the period 17 December to today, and tracks the Atlantic-Amazon sourced atmospheric river involved in all this all the way to China.
Interesting, Hael (sometimes spelled Hail) may well be where the word “hail” comes from. Earlier in the year it had some amazing hail storms. Weather in the Middle East atm really is seriously cray cray.
Also in #SaudiArabia #ArabianStorms
And a thread from #Kuwait #ArabianStorms
#ArabianStorms Update Thread:
A snapshot of the storms over the Middle East at their peak last night. The larger area of storms (as identified by weather radar) near the Gulf is the size of Germany. The smaller one over Mecca is twice the size of Switzerland.
A snapshot of the storms over the Middle East at their peak last night. The larger area of storms (as identified by weather radar) near the Gulf is the size of Germany. The smaller one over Mecca is twice the size of Switzerland.
Here's a video of some of that rain falling last night.
This animation shows the Gulf Coast end of the storm over night. The rain will have been continuous but radar data flow to @Zoom_Earth appears to be patchy.
The weather in the middle east is already pretty weird - but it is about to get a lot weirder.
Simulations show a spectacular monsoon driven burst of water and energy pulsing over the Arabian Peninsula, bringing rain to the entire desert land mass over the next three weeks.
Simulations show a spectacular monsoon driven burst of water and energy pulsing over the Arabian Peninsula, bringing rain to the entire desert land mass over the next three weeks.
This thread's coverage fits into our #ExtremeWeather #ClimateChangeNow #DesertRain #ArabianStorms and #WestAfricanMonsoonBurst baskets.
The animations above and below are both from this afternoon. And they show the developing weather patterns which will bring this event.
The animations above and below are both from this afternoon. And they show the developing weather patterns which will bring this event.
This is part of series of threads looking at a developing Sahara Water Transportation event (atmospheric river) which appears to be central component of this which was first noted here on December 5th (#AwesomeClimate) .
Cyclone Shaheen-Gulab, currently over Oman [trans: Falcon-Rose] appears to be taking a direct path towards the Horn of Africa.
Here's the last 24 hours, during which the cyclone/hurricane has made landfall in Oman and is moving south-west into the great empty desert area of the Arabian Peninsula. #ArabianStorms #DesertRain
Here we see the last 24 hours over Ethiopia, the Horn and the south western Arabian Peninsula. [Addis is just above the "ET" in "Ethiopia" on the map. A small dot of light during the night.
Cyclone Shaheen-Gulab (meaning: Falcon-Rose) is making landfall in Oman right now. In this animation we can see how its outflows are bringing rain to the Horn of Africa.
This week's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica #HoA and #MiddleEast follow:
This week's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica #HoA and #MiddleEast follow:
Two animations follow showing the development of Shaheen-Gulab over the past 48 hours, into what looks like a well organised powerful storm. This animation begins on Friday night and runs for 24 hours.
And this one starts yesterday afternoon and runs till about half an hour ago. #ArabianStorms [@Arab_Storms]
Today's rainfall/weather update for the #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follows.
The short version is that the peak of the rainy season may have passed, but there are signs of another Indian Monsoon surge coming in 10-12 days in long range forecasts.
The short version is that the peak of the rainy season may have passed, but there are signs of another Indian Monsoon surge coming in 10-12 days in long range forecasts.
Here is the long-range GFS model PWAT forecast for the Indian Monsoon. Towards the end it strengthens and we see high levels of moisture heading for the #HornOfAfrica.
Here is a big picture view of the greater region including all the areas that this weekly bulletin will cover.
A review of the past week showed that Sahel-Sahara rainfall has continued, as has rainfall in northern Sudan. The northerly rain is however not particularly heavy.
A review of the past week showed that Sahel-Sahara rainfall has continued, as has rainfall in northern Sudan. The northerly rain is however not particularly heavy.
This week's rainfall forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica, #NorthAfrica and the #Middle East follow.
Image: Typhoon INFA over China showing the lights of Tokyo where the world is gathered to celebrate youth & excellence and the unity of the nations of the world at the Olympics.
Image: Typhoon INFA over China showing the lights of Tokyo where the world is gathered to celebrate youth & excellence and the unity of the nations of the world at the Olympics.
Two typhoons getting closer and closer to each other. #INFA on the right is sucking the much smaller #Cempaka into its orbit. Sucking up all its outflow and chucking it out east.
The pair of typhoons current winds are fixed by JTWC at 70 and 65 knots at 06Z.
The pair of typhoons current winds are fixed by JTWC at 70 and 65 knots at 06Z.
Here are the current warning graphics from the JTWC.
Congratulations to Ethiopia and Ethiopians everywhere on today's completion of the 2nd filling of the #GERD. It has been a great honour to follow along during this moment.
Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow.
Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow.
The presentation of the #ArabianMonsoonBurst has changed dramatically today with the consolidation of activity over the Arabian Peninsula into a single huge storm which is currently moving into the Red Sea over Makkah and Jeddah.
Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
The scale of the storm over Islam's holiest city is huge, larger than France. Two more huge storms loom over the greater region tonight. One on the Iranian Gulf coast and another supercell thunderstorm complex over New Delhi/Rajastan, India, the size of the United Kingdom.
The last six hours in three animations, first India which is experiencing a massive monsoon day today in the north.
[Here the initial frames show a blank SEA as their was a satellite data outage.]
[Here the initial frames show a blank SEA as their was a satellite data outage.]
Today is possibly the apex of this #ArabianMonsoonBurst which began several days ago now. It's hard to imagine it getting bigger than this.
Today's #NorthAfrican #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's #NorthAfrican #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
The animation above is for 12 hours hence the arriving and departing light effect. As always the engine behind this is the Indian Monsoon which you can see here this morning gathering strength.
A close up from the end of today shows how the big storms over #SaudiArabia are generating new atmospheric rivers of moisture, or plumes, over the Sahara, you can see these top right.
[Note: Atmospheric rivers are often invisible, this one becomes visible as night falls.]
[Note: Atmospheric rivers are often invisible, this one becomes visible as night falls.]
The magnitude of #ArabianMonsoonBurst is now apparent. A major storm is about to cross the Red Sea and arrive in the #HornOfAfrica. Behind it are two enormous super-cell thunderstorms.
Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
The rain activity shown in the @zoom_earth animation preceding is only radar based, Saudi radar, and in this case is complementary to the @Meteoblue satellite rainfall estimates you see below. There is likely significantly more rainfall in this than you see here.
Here we see India (the heart of this Monsoon), this morning to 10am East Africa Time. I.E. around seven hours ago.
Today's #ArabianStorms thread took a bit of a detour into looking at today's fatal floods in #Benelux and #Germany, and the causes for the weather pattern that brought them.
Turns out that a #WestAfricaWaterPlume is involved. When it comes to weather we are #AllInThisTogether.
Turns out that a #WestAfricaWaterPlume is involved. When it comes to weather we are #AllInThisTogether.
Here we see satellite images for the three days leading up to this. And a close look at this satellite imagery [@zoom_earth] suggests that the the persistence of the storm, which is far from over, is due to it being mainlined tropical water from the West Africa Monsoon.
On @zoom_earth you can watch animations of the satellite data to check this for yourself at this link >>zoom.earth/#view=40.2,-1,…
It's raining cats and dogs in the highlands northern Ethiopia tonight. Across all of Tigray and south into the #Abbay basin which is busy filling the GERD. The #ArabianMonsoonBlast is getting into gear now but it is far from over.
Today's Rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's Rainfall forecasts follow.
The Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea are ultimately responsible for all of this and so we begin with a couple of satellite images of them today. I will post another picture of the #GERD as soon as it reveals itself from under the clouds.
Here's a rainfall map from @Meteoblue which can be followed live at >> meteoblue.com/fr/meteo/curre….
Mekele isn't right under the rain but Aksum and Shire are. Hopefully this will slow down the warriors.
Mekele isn't right under the rain but Aksum and Shire are. Hopefully this will slow down the warriors.
On day 3 of #ArabianMonsoonBlast here's the view over the region tonight. This is definitely bringing rain, and lots of it to both Tigray and #GERD.
Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's Big Pictures provide a view of the entire planet today in three images.
1. The Atlantic
2. The Pacific
3. Asia
Sometimes its helpful to take a broad view and remember that we are all on this planet together. And that we share the one amazing life giving biosphere.
1. The Atlantic
2. The Pacific
3. Asia
Sometimes its helpful to take a broad view and remember that we are all on this planet together. And that we share the one amazing life giving biosphere.
I found another #MonsoonBurst in the pipeline, this time over the Western Pacific. One which shows very clearly that weird weather is now a universal phenomena in the Northern Hemisphere. And it all started with another Typhoon...
Thread attached...
Thread attached...
The full monsoon has now arrived in the #HornOfAfrica. Very intense rain has begun in the Nile Basin and will continue for a week or more.
What will happen in the #MiddleEast is less clear, but it will involve a lot of rain and #ArabianStorms. Today's forecasts follow.
What will happen in the #MiddleEast is less clear, but it will involve a lot of rain and #ArabianStorms. Today's forecasts follow.
This animation shows the flow of rain bearing clouds heading south west across Pakistan which signals the first phase of an event which will intensify significantly over coming days.
This animation shows under wrapped in pulsating bands of storms headed both East and West. It is this intense period of Monsoon activity which is powering the phenomena that his bringing this rain to Yemen, Oman and Saudi Arabia.
Since the last rainfall forecast bulletin on Saturday, the forecast West Sahara rainfall burst has come and gone, and the forecast #ME/#HoA rainfall burst is now about to commence.
Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow.
Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow.
First an update on Western Sahara. The peak of the storms came overnight on Saturday morning. Here we see a 6 hour rainfall animation from 2.30am to 8.30am.
And here we see a wider view following sunrise on Saturday morning. If you are curious as to what was forecast Saturday's rainfall forecast thread is quoted below >>
The next two weeks promise to bring astonishing weather to both sides of the Red Sea & across the Sahara. In this weather bulletin I will explain what the models are forecasting.
Today's #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
In the image above we see part of Arabia and part of the #NileBasin storms - those which feed the Blue Nile/Abbay and the Tekeze basins the source of most of the Nile's flow.
Below we see:
1. All Nile Basin rainfall as of this evening
2. All of this evenings #ArabianStorms
Below we see:
1. All Nile Basin rainfall as of this evening
2. All of this evenings #ArabianStorms
The rainfall we see on both sides of the Red Sea comes mostly from the same source - the monsoon over the Arabian Sea, India and South East Asia.
A satellite image from this morning shows what we currently think to be the cradle of humanity. Where we all come from.
A satellite image from this morning shows what we currently think to be the cradle of humanity. Where we all come from.
Two Nile dams joined by nile 100kms apart as seen this morning by @NASA's Modis satellite. [Top right Sudan's Roseires and bottom left the #GERD.]
Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow.
Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow.
Today's big picture is a dramatic shot of the Sahara at sunset with a massive storm over Mali and a line of clouds from the heart of Algeria's desert south east to Chad. On the right you can see tonight's storms over the #Ethiopia highlands.
The rainfall in the Western Sahara has just started but it has a few more days to run. In this animation of a simulation you see the precipitable water anomaly, which highlights areas which have much more water than normal for this time of year.
As the UNSC met tonight to discuss the #GERD storms continued to form over Ethiopia's highlands the source of the water which is currently filling the dam.
Today's #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
During the UNSC meeting. Ethiopia's water minister explained how this works. "The filling of the dam is part of the construction process.... When the dam is filled the water either flows over the dam or through the bottom outlets."
The Minister later spoke to media :
Q: (@AJEnglish): Why don't you stop filling the dam?
A: All dams are filling. Why? Because it is the rainy season. In fact it is good to protect from floods. We have bountiful water. It doesn't hurt anyone.
Q: (@AJEnglish): Why don't you stop filling the dam?
A: All dams are filling. Why? Because it is the rainy season. In fact it is good to protect from floods. We have bountiful water. It doesn't hurt anyone.
On day 2 of official #GERD filling we have glimpse through the clouds and what looks like a nearly full GERD lake in a recent photograph taken after the spillways were commissioned this year.
Today's #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
This morning's rainfall update thread is attached here.
The thread also looks at a major #DesertRain event to the west of the Horn, over Sudan, Chad and Niger where August/September like rains appear to have come early.
The thread also looks at a major #DesertRain event to the west of the Horn, over Sudan, Chad and Niger where August/September like rains appear to have come early.
Here's an update from this afternoon with satellite estimated rainfall over the last 24 hours showing 14-35mms of rain over the #Abbay basin.
