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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
Arkansas senators who oppose a congressional map that would split Pulaski County (Little Rock) into 3 districts include Democrats Clarke Tucker & Joyce Elliott, who ran against #AR02 Rep. French Hill (R) in 2018 & 2020 respectively.
"The 2nd Congressional District is already a majority Republican congressional district. Believe me, I know," Tucker said today. "And you could change it and keep counties whole and make it even more Republican than it is now without splitting Pulaski County."
Arkansas map under consideration splits 2 counties -- Pulaski (Little Rock) and Sebastian (Fort Smith/Greenwood). Current (2011) map splits 5 counties including Sebastian. The 2001 map didn't split any counties.
1/33 Sorry for long thread, but I want to post this before E-Day:
I've worked for years on an unfinished project to draw nonpartisan congressional maps for every state to analyze gerrymandering. This map shows the 2016 pres margin by hypothetical district. State maps to follow.
I've worked for years on an unfinished project to draw nonpartisan congressional maps for every state to analyze gerrymandering. This map shows the 2016 pres margin by hypothetical district. State maps to follow.
2/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Alabama congressional map with two Voting Rights Act districts (#AL02 & #AL07). Second map shows two Black-majority districts to illustrate a VRA liability.
3/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Arizona congressional map.
Watched the #AR02 debate. I suppose a 1-hour debate could have focused on the COVID-19 alone. Covered a lot of ground, some less informative than others. 1/
2/ Re: the TCJA, it's an albatross for Republicans. It did not ignite the economy and was a huge boon to corporations. That was before COVID-19. markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/7-…
3/ Re: ACA repeal: Paul Ryan said it was the biggest promise Republicans ever made in the modern era. Had they succeeded the # of uninsured would have skyrocketed. washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/w…
Help make it happen! Follow and support:
#AR02 @xjelliott
#AZ06 @hiral4congress
#CA25 @ChristyforCA25
#FL16 @GoodforFlorida
#GA07 @Carolyn4GA7
#IL13 @BetsyforIL
#IN05 @HaleIndy
#KS02 @Michelle4Kansas
#MI03 @HillaryScholten
#MN08 @QuinnNystrom
#AR02 @xjelliott
#AZ06 @hiral4congress
#CA25 @ChristyforCA25
#FL16 @GoodforFlorida
#GA07 @Carolyn4GA7
#IL13 @BetsyforIL
#IN05 @HaleIndy
#KS02 @Michelle4Kansas
#MI03 @HillaryScholten
#MN08 @QuinnNystrom
These women can FLIP seats in November:
#MO02 @JillSchupp
#MTAL @WilliamsForMT
#NE02 @karaforcongress
#NY01 @ngoroff
#NY02 @VoteJackie4NY
#NY21 @TedraCobb
#NY24 @dana_balter
#NC02 @DeborahRossNC
#NC06 @KathyManningNC
#NC08 @TimmonsGoodson
#MO02 @JillSchupp
#MTAL @WilliamsForMT
#NE02 @karaforcongress
#NY01 @ngoroff
#NY02 @VoteJackie4NY
#NY21 @TedraCobb
#NY24 @dana_balter
#NC02 @DeborahRossNC
#NC06 @KathyManningNC
#NC08 @TimmonsGoodson
Make sure you’re supporting all of the incredible women who can help EXPAND the House majority:
#OH01 @KateForCongress
#OH10 @TimsDesiree
#PA01 @FinelloForPA
#TX02 @SimaforTX
#TX21 @wendydavis
#TX23 @GinaOrtizJones
#TX24 @candacefor24
#WA03 @ElectLong
#OH01 @KateForCongress
#OH10 @TimsDesiree
#PA01 @FinelloForPA
#TX02 @SimaforTX
#TX21 @wendydavis
#TX23 @GinaOrtizJones
#TX24 @candacefor24
#WA03 @ElectLong
A devoted mother of five and a former public school teacher, @AmyKennedy715 has a deep commitment and passion for education and for mental health advocacy and policy that will greatly benefit her work in the House #ForThePeople of #NJ02.
.@candacefor24 is a mom and educator whose lived experience informs her commitment to finding solutions in education policy that create opportunity for children and families in underserved communities. She will make history as the first Afro-Latina in Congress. #TX24
Margaret @GoodforFlorida is looking forward to making a real difference in the lives of working families in #FL16 by bringing to the House the same dedication and common sense problem-solving that always guided her service as an attorney, non-profit leader, and legislator.
Improved Dave's #Redistricting App brings me joy! (Gratefully anticipating post-2020). @davesredist @mikemathieu #ElectionTwitter 1/27
@PoliticsWolf @ecaliberseven @DKElections @JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @Center4Politics @Redistrict @fairvote @jbview
gardow.com/davebradlee/re…
@PoliticsWolf @ecaliberseven @DKElections @JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @Center4Politics @Redistrict @fairvote @jbview
gardow.com/davebradlee/re…
Tested it out with this new KY map. Based on 2016-2019 results, intrigued how it would do in 2020. The #KY04 (R+7 PVI) seems more competitive than the real #KY06 (R+9), with the movement in the Cincinnati and Lexington suburbs. 2/27 davesredistricting.org/join/d389d8e2-…
However, I also did a bunch of Democratic gerrymanders after 2012 redistricting to compare with the real Republican ones. Thought I’d review how my designs performed in light of 2016. The contrast shows just how much of a difference partisan control makes (spoiler: a lot). 3/27
Holy crap. The new Sabato Crystal Ball House ratings change is...big.
This is the first time the Crystal Ball has given Democrats better than 50/50 odds of taking the House. And there is a LOT to unpack here.
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
This is the first time the Crystal Ball has given Democrats better than 50/50 odds of taking the House. And there is a LOT to unpack here.
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
Here are Sabato's topline changes.
5 races are no longer Safe R: #IA04, #IN02, #IN09, #PA16, #TX31
3 races shift from Likely R to Lean R: #AR02, #FL16, #NM02
9 more R seats are now Tossups: #IA03, #IL06, #KY06, #MI08, #OH01, #OH12, #TX07, #WV03
And #FL13 is now Safe D.
5 races are no longer Safe R: #IA04, #IN02, #IN09, #PA16, #TX31
3 races shift from Likely R to Lean R: #AR02, #FL16, #NM02
9 more R seats are now Tossups: #IA03, #IL06, #KY06, #MI08, #OH01, #OH12, #TX07, #WV03
And #FL13 is now Safe D.
Here are a few takeaways:
-White nationalist Rep. Steve King has a credible challenge
-IN and WV have competitive House races (and the extra attention from Ds could help their senators here)
-#OH12 special is REALLY close
-Dem women vets (McGrath, Hegar) are kicking ass.
-White nationalist Rep. Steve King has a credible challenge
-IN and WV have competitive House races (and the extra attention from Ds could help their senators here)
-#OH12 special is REALLY close
-Dem women vets (McGrath, Hegar) are kicking ass.
THREAD
Q2 Fundraising is over, and Democrats did a great job!
But I was chatting with @ybbkaren and an interesting question came up:
With SO MANY great candidates, how do we decide who needs donations the most? Many are worthy, but our personal funds are not unlimited.
Q2 Fundraising is over, and Democrats did a great job!
But I was chatting with @ybbkaren and an interesting question came up:
With SO MANY great candidates, how do we decide who needs donations the most? Many are worthy, but our personal funds are not unlimited.
So I came up with an idea for my own list of Dems who need $$$ based upon the following criteria:
*They have won their primary
*They are trying to flip “swing” GOP-held seats (per @CookPolitical ratings)
*They are behind their GOP opponents in “Cash on Hand” (per @OpenSecretsDC)
*They have won their primary
*They are trying to flip “swing” GOP-held seats (per @CookPolitical ratings)
*They are behind their GOP opponents in “Cash on Hand” (per @OpenSecretsDC)
That’s not to say that other Democrats in swing districts are not worthy. They are. But the following, from a strategic $$$ perspective, might be the best place to donate *for now*.
This is the list of those House candidates, and their donation links, based on that criteria:
This is the list of those House candidates, and their donation links, based on that criteria:
If you, like me, cannot point to a single thing @RepFrenchHill has done for the benefit of his constituents in #AR2 then you owe it to yourself and everyone else in the seven county area to vote for @clarketucker this November. #arpx #Vote #Midterms2018
.@RepFrenchHill has voted to end coverage for pre-existing conditions. He doesn't care whether or not you can afford to see a doctor, or even if your health insurance will cover a visit. He does not care about #Arkansans #AR2 #ByeFrench #VoteThemOut #arpx
.@RepFrenchHill supports @realDonaldTrump #ConcentrationCamps for migrant children, infants, and toddlers. He refuses to speak up about these egregious #HumanRights violations. #Arkansas deserves a better, more humane representative in #AR2 - @clarketucker is that person! #Vote
Hey ARKANSAS!
Here’s a THREAD of all your Democratic Candidates for Congress, Governor, Lt. Gov, Secretary of State & Attorney General. With photos and website links!
Also lots of Voter Info with Links!
Register by October 9 to vote in #Midterms2018 on NOVEMBER 6, 2018
#VoteBlue
Here’s a THREAD of all your Democratic Candidates for Congress, Governor, Lt. Gov, Secretary of State & Attorney General. With photos and website links!
Also lots of Voter Info with Links!
Register by October 9 to vote in #Midterms2018 on NOVEMBER 6, 2018
#VoteBlue
#ARKANSAS VOTER Registration
You must fill out a paper Voter Registration Application sos.arkansas.gov/uploads/electi…
Mail or deliver to County Clerk. Addresses: sos.arkansas.gov/uploads/County…
Check your Registration status here: voterview.ar-nova.org/VoterView/Home…
Polling Locations voterview.ar-nova.org/VoterView/Poll…
You must fill out a paper Voter Registration Application sos.arkansas.gov/uploads/electi…
Mail or deliver to County Clerk. Addresses: sos.arkansas.gov/uploads/County…
Check your Registration status here: voterview.ar-nova.org/VoterView/Home…
Polling Locations voterview.ar-nova.org/VoterView/Poll…
#ARKANSAS
Absentee Ballot Request to County Clerk for Primaries by mail or email by October 9, 2018
Return by Nov 5
Absentee Voting Application form here: sos.arkansas.gov/uploads/electi…
View Absentee Ballot status here: voterview.ar-nova.org/VoterView/Abse…
Military? fvap.gov/uploads/FVAP/F…
Absentee Ballot Request to County Clerk for Primaries by mail or email by October 9, 2018
Return by Nov 5
Absentee Voting Application form here: sos.arkansas.gov/uploads/electi…
View Absentee Ballot status here: voterview.ar-nova.org/VoterView/Abse…
Military? fvap.gov/uploads/FVAP/F…
Hey #Arkansas!
You get to Vote in Primary Elections MAY 22, 2018
Register by April 23. #AR01 #AR02 #AR03 #AR04
THREAD of all Democratic Candidates for Congress, Governor.
With photos & Website!
(Also check out Dem Candidates for Lt. Gov, Secretary of State & Attorney General.)
You get to Vote in Primary Elections MAY 22, 2018
Register by April 23. #AR01 #AR02 #AR03 #AR04
THREAD of all Democratic Candidates for Congress, Governor.
With photos & Website!
(Also check out Dem Candidates for Lt. Gov, Secretary of State & Attorney General.)
VOTER Registration
You must fill out a paper Voter Registration Application sos.arkansas.gov/uploads/electi…
And mail or deliver it to your County Clerk. Addresses here: sos.arkansas.gov/uploads/County…
Check your Registration status here: voterview.ar-nova.org/VoterView/Home…
You must fill out a paper Voter Registration Application sos.arkansas.gov/uploads/electi…
And mail or deliver it to your County Clerk. Addresses here: sos.arkansas.gov/uploads/County…
Check your Registration status here: voterview.ar-nova.org/VoterView/Home…
VOTER ID Rules in ARKANSAS #AR01 #AR02 #AR03 #AR04
See also this article on pending Lawsuit: arkansasonline.com/news/2018/mar/…
See also this article on pending Lawsuit: arkansasonline.com/news/2018/mar/…
Yesterday, #COTD @BenMcAdams rode your #BlueWave2018🌊 from 7.6k followers to 8430! ❤️ Great job, y'all!
This #SaturdayMorning, we are doing a special #COTD to support #MarchForOurLives
We asked #BWCS endorsed candidates where they stand on #GunReform
(1/THREAD)
#AMJoy
This #SaturdayMorning, we are doing a special #COTD to support #MarchForOurLives
We asked #BWCS endorsed candidates where they stand on #GunReform
(1/THREAD)
#AMJoy
.@PiattPatti's son died of a self-inflicted gunshot wound.
"Watching others lose a child and knowing what they feel brings it all back. I don't have a problem with responsible gun ownership, but there is nothing responsible about owning an AR-15."
#MarchForOurLives
#AMJoy
#KY04
"Watching others lose a child and knowing what they feel brings it all back. I don't have a problem with responsible gun ownership, but there is nothing responsible about owning an AR-15."
#MarchForOurLives
#AMJoy
#KY04
"If we want teachers to have to ability to make offensive measures, why not non-lethal weapons? It's terrible that we would have to, but if we do, that route should not be firearms." -@TomPrigg2018
#MarchForOurLives
#AMJoy
#MarchForOurLives
#AMJoy
