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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
hello! While we're waiting for more presidential results, I thought I'd give you an update on the House. @DecisionDeskHQ projects that Republicans have won back 5 seats on net so far. Rs flipped 7 seats and Dems won back 2 thanks to redistricting in NC businessinsider.com/2020-house-ele…
Seats projected to flip D to R, per @DecisionDeskHQ
#IA01 ( Finkenauer)
#FL26 (Mucarsel-Powell)
#FL27 (Shalala)
#MN07 (Peterson)
#NM02 (Torres Small)
#OK05 ( Horn)
#SC01 (Cunningham)
Others to keep an eye on as more votes are counted: #CA21, #CA39, #NY11, #NY22, #UT04
#IA01 ( Finkenauer)
#FL26 (Mucarsel-Powell)
#FL27 (Shalala)
#MN07 (Peterson)
#NM02 (Torres Small)
#OK05 ( Horn)
#SC01 (Cunningham)
Others to keep an eye on as more votes are counted: #CA21, #CA39, #NY11, #NY22, #UT04
Democrats have also fallen short on many of their offensive targets to flip R-held seats: their most promising pickup opportunity is #GA07, where @DecisionDesk HQ has not projected a winner and we should (hopefully!) get more clarity today as more votes are counted/reported
Every state has big stakes on the ballot — it's just some are facing a perfect storm where so much that matters is competitive at once.
So I'm starting this ongoing thread of states, to encapsulate as many stakes as I can within 280 characters. (Let's do roughly one a day!)
So I'm starting this ongoing thread of states, to encapsulate as many stakes as I can within 280 characters. (Let's do roughly one a day!)
1️⃣ North Carolina really is it:
—Could decide WH
—Could decide U.S. Senate majority
—Ds may gain at least 2 House seats. More?
—Can Ds keep governorship (& veto power)?
—Can Ds pick-up a legislative chamber?
—3 Supreme Court seats!👀
—AG, LG (if Gov vacancy...), SoS competitive
—Could decide WH
—Could decide U.S. Senate majority
—Ds may gain at least 2 House seats. More?
—Can Ds keep governorship (& veto power)?
—Can Ds pick-up a legislative chamber?
—3 Supreme Court seats!👀
—AG, LG (if Gov vacancy...), SoS competitive
2️⃣ Montana is up there too:
—Could decide Senate majority!
—Open Gov race. Would be GOP's first win since 2000, likely give them trifecta. And it's Gianforte on the ballot.
—Open SoS & AG races
—An open, tight House race
—An intriguing Supreme Court race
—Gun control referendum
—Could decide Senate majority!
—Open Gov race. Would be GOP's first win since 2000, likely give them trifecta. And it's Gianforte on the ballot.
—Open SoS & AG races
—An open, tight House race
—An intriguing Supreme Court race
—Gun control referendum
Help make it happen! Follow and support:
#AR02 @xjelliott
#AZ06 @hiral4congress
#CA25 @ChristyforCA25
#FL16 @GoodforFlorida
#GA07 @Carolyn4GA7
#IL13 @BetsyforIL
#IN05 @HaleIndy
#KS02 @Michelle4Kansas
#MI03 @HillaryScholten
#MN08 @QuinnNystrom
#AR02 @xjelliott
#AZ06 @hiral4congress
#CA25 @ChristyforCA25
#FL16 @GoodforFlorida
#GA07 @Carolyn4GA7
#IL13 @BetsyforIL
#IN05 @HaleIndy
#KS02 @Michelle4Kansas
#MI03 @HillaryScholten
#MN08 @QuinnNystrom
These women can FLIP seats in November:
#MO02 @JillSchupp
#MTAL @WilliamsForMT
#NE02 @karaforcongress
#NY01 @ngoroff
#NY02 @VoteJackie4NY
#NY21 @TedraCobb
#NY24 @dana_balter
#NC02 @DeborahRossNC
#NC06 @KathyManningNC
#NC08 @TimmonsGoodson
#MO02 @JillSchupp
#MTAL @WilliamsForMT
#NE02 @karaforcongress
#NY01 @ngoroff
#NY02 @VoteJackie4NY
#NY21 @TedraCobb
#NY24 @dana_balter
#NC02 @DeborahRossNC
#NC06 @KathyManningNC
#NC08 @TimmonsGoodson
Make sure you’re supporting all of the incredible women who can help EXPAND the House majority:
#OH01 @KateForCongress
#OH10 @TimsDesiree
#PA01 @FinelloForPA
#TX02 @SimaforTX
#TX21 @wendydavis
#TX23 @GinaOrtizJones
#TX24 @candacefor24
#WA03 @ElectLong
#OH01 @KateForCongress
#OH10 @TimsDesiree
#PA01 @FinelloForPA
#TX02 @SimaforTX
#TX21 @wendydavis
#TX23 @GinaOrtizJones
#TX24 @candacefor24
#WA03 @ElectLong
4th term #MO02 Republican Rep. Ann Wagner will face Democrat Jill Schupp in November general election. Both were unopposed for their party's nomination. Wagner last won reelection to eastern Missouri House seat in a competitive race in 2018 with 51.2% of the vote.
DCCC Chair Bustos on #MO02 House race: "This suburban, highly educated district is primed for Democrats to flip it in November and I look forward to seeing Jill Schupp serve Missourians in Congress come 2021.”
NRCC Chair Emmer: "Jill Schupp’s record of supporting socialist wish list items like banning private and employer-provided health insurance in favor of socialized medicine will be toxic to voters, and I have no doubt Ann will be victorious in November.”
NEW at @CookPolitical: 10 rating changes (7 towards Ds, 3 towards Rs) as Democrats' edge in the battle for the House grows...
Basically, #COVID19 has all but frozen House recruitment & severely curtailed fundraising. That's an advantage for incumbents & bad news for upstates.
At end of 2019, median House D in a Trump district had $1.8 million cash on hand while median leading R challenger had $247,000.
At end of 2019, median House D in a Trump district had $1.8 million cash on hand while median leading R challenger had $247,000.
Hey #MISSOURI!
Here’s a THREAD all your Democratic Candidates for #Midterms2018!
with Photos, Twitter & Websites.
AND Voter Info links to Registration, Absentee, Voter ID, Poll Worker
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018!
#MO01 #MO02 #MO03 #MO04 #MO05 #MO06 #MO07 #MO08
#VoteBlueMO #VoteBlue
Here’s a THREAD all your Democratic Candidates for #Midterms2018!
with Photos, Twitter & Websites.
AND Voter Info links to Registration, Absentee, Voter ID, Poll Worker
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018!
#MO01 #MO02 #MO03 #MO04 #MO05 #MO06 #MO07 #MO08
#VoteBlueMO #VoteBlue
VOTER REGISTRATION in #Missouri
Where to Vote: voteroutreach.sos.mo.gov/PRD/VoterOutre…
Application here: s1.sos.mo.gov/votemissouri/r…
Request an application be mailed to you here: s1.sos.mo.gov/elections/goVo…
Election authority addresses: sos.mo.gov/elections/goVo…
ElectionComplaints: sos.mo.gov/elections/elec…
Where to Vote: voteroutreach.sos.mo.gov/PRD/VoterOutre…
Application here: s1.sos.mo.gov/votemissouri/r…
Request an application be mailed to you here: s1.sos.mo.gov/elections/goVo…
Election authority addresses: sos.mo.gov/elections/goVo…
ElectionComplaints: sos.mo.gov/elections/elec…
Democratic Candidate U.S. SENATOR #Missouri #MO
Dem Incumbent Claire McCaskill
clairemccaskill.com
@McCaskill4MO
vs Josh Hawley
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018!
#MO01 #MO02 #MO03 #MO04 #MO05 #MO06 #MO07 #MO08
#VoteBlueMO #Midterms2018
Dem Incumbent Claire McCaskill
clairemccaskill.com
@McCaskill4MO
vs Josh Hawley
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018!
#MO01 #MO02 #MO03 #MO04 #MO05 #MO06 #MO07 #MO08
#VoteBlueMO #Midterms2018
🚨GOOD NEWS THREAD - HOUSE VERSION🚨
#OH12 left us with a cliffhanger. We all worked so hard to give @dannyoconnor1 an outright win. Yes it's a steep climb, but it could still happen. Either way, we did good!
But let's not overlook the OTHER good House news from last night.
#OH12 left us with a cliffhanger. We all worked so hard to give @dannyoconnor1 an outright win. Yes it's a steep climb, but it could still happen. Either way, we did good!
But let's not overlook the OTHER good House news from last night.
In "Toss-up" #MI08 Democratic primary voters OUT-VOTED Republican primary voters.
Democrat Elissa Slotkin (@ElissaSlotkin) is going to FLIP this seat right out from under incumbent GOP Rep. Mike Bishop.
But only if we help her right now.
Register. Vote. DONATE. Volunteer.
Democrat Elissa Slotkin (@ElissaSlotkin) is going to FLIP this seat right out from under incumbent GOP Rep. Mike Bishop.
But only if we help her right now.
Register. Vote. DONATE. Volunteer.
In "Toss-up" open seat #MI11, Democratic primary voters OUT-VOTED Republican primary voters.
But Democrat Haley Stevens (@HaleyLive) needs to hit the ground running if we want to FLIP this seat.
So let's get started.
Register. Vote. DONATE. Volunteer.
But Democrat Haley Stevens (@HaleyLive) needs to hit the ground running if we want to FLIP this seat.
So let's get started.
Register. Vote. DONATE. Volunteer.
Yesterday, you took @BlueWaveCS🌊 candidate @PaulDavisKS from 7.9k to 8.4k followers! 🤯 Y'all are AMAZING!
#FridayFeeling's #COTD @cortvo running in #MO02.
He's at 8.2k followers.
Think we can get him to 8.5k?❤️
#FridayFeeling's #COTD @cortvo running in #MO02.
He's at 8.2k followers.
Think we can get him to 8.5k?❤️
In April, @BlueWaveCS did an interview with our #FridayFeeling #COTD, @cortvo.
#FlashbackFriday
#FridayMotivation
#FlashbackFriday
#FridayMotivation
"I'm proud to be endorsed by @StopBigMoney, an org that believes voters, not corporate money, should decide elections."
#FridayFeeling #COTD #MO02 #FridayMotivation
RT & FOLLOW: ➡️@cortvo
SUPPORT: ➡️bit.ly/2v7qUyZ
#FridayFeeling #COTD #MO02 #FridayMotivation
RT & FOLLOW: ➡️@cortvo
SUPPORT: ➡️bit.ly/2v7qUyZ
Hey #Missouri!
#PrimaryElection on AUGUST 7th!
Here's a THREAD of all your Democratic Candidates
and Voter Info
With Photos & Links!
#VoteBlueMO
#MO01 #MO02 #MO03 #MO04 #MO05 #MO06 #MO07 #MO08
Missouri Candidates List
s1.sos.mo.gov/candidatesonwe…
Districts Map: sos.mo.gov/CMSImages/Elec…
#PrimaryElection on AUGUST 7th!
Here's a THREAD of all your Democratic Candidates
and Voter Info
With Photos & Links!
#VoteBlueMO
#MO01 #MO02 #MO03 #MO04 #MO05 #MO06 #MO07 #MO08
Missouri Candidates List
s1.sos.mo.gov/candidatesonwe…
Districts Map: sos.mo.gov/CMSImages/Elec…
Dem Candidates SENATOR #Missouri #MO
Incumbent Claire McCaskill
clairemccaskill.com
@McCaskill4MO
Angelica Earl
teammissouri.net
@AngelicaForMO
David Faust
Travis Gonzalez
travisgonzalezmo.com
John Hogan
Leonard Steinman
Carla "Coffee" Wright
coffeewrightussenate.com
Incumbent Claire McCaskill
clairemccaskill.com
@McCaskill4MO
Angelica Earl
teammissouri.net
@AngelicaForMO
David Faust
Travis Gonzalez
travisgonzalezmo.com
John Hogan
Leonard Steinman
Carla "Coffee" Wright
coffeewrightussenate.com
Democratic Candidates #Missouri #MO01
Incumbent Lacy Clay
lacyclay.org
@LacyClayMO1
Cori Bush
votecoribush.com
@CoriBush
Joshua Shipp
gofundme.com/us-congress
VOTE AUGUST 7th!
#VoteBlueMO
Incumbent Lacy Clay
lacyclay.org
@LacyClayMO1
Cori Bush
votecoribush.com
@CoriBush
Joshua Shipp
gofundme.com/us-congress
VOTE AUGUST 7th!
#VoteBlueMO
