Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #tightening
Most recents (10)
As was widely expected, the @federalreserve today halted the most aggressive policy rate #HikingCycle since 1980, leaving the Fed Funds range unchanged at 5.0% to 5.25%, a level that appears clear to us to be finally having an impact on the #economy.
We think today’s actions represent a “Hawkish skip,” which implies that #policy makers are seeking more #data before potentially hiking rates again in July, or September.
For our part, we think #ChairPowell’s comments at the press conference made it clear that the #FOMC is seeking to balance increasingly restrictive monetary policy with the high degree of uncertainty around the tightening of #CreditConditions…
The @federalreserve’s #FOMC has now moved in 75 basis point increments four times this year to get to a sought-after #policy destination very quickly.
Yet, the destination seems to have moved further away with each subsequent elevated #inflation print, and with #employment in the country remaining very tight.
Hence, while moving the #FederalFunds rate at a very fast 75 bps increment seemed almost inconceivable several months ago, especially as the #Fed was still undertaking quantitative easing (#QE) in March, we have become used to this extraordinary increment.
In his @federalreserve #JacksonHole speech #ChairPowell stated emphatically that the #FOMC’s “overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy.”
In other words, we take his statement today to mean that the #Fed won’t be easily swayed into reversing rate #hikes next year, and will stay with the elevated Funds rate for a long time.
The #Fed has clearly been (appropriately) rushing to get to a destination of #inflation-denting restrictive rate (and #liquidity) policy in order to break extremely high levels of inflation, while hopefully not thrusting the economy into a deep #recession.
🚨FOMC preview ...🧵
Target rate probabilities for July 27 (Wed) between 225 and 275 with 3x as much probability on 225-250 (75 bps).
#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets #CentralBanks
Target rate probabilities for July 27 (Wed) between 225 and 275 with 3x as much probability on 225-250 (75 bps).
#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets #CentralBanks
Fed will be data driven.
Currently, the market is factoring in target rate probabilities (Dec 2022 FOMC meeting) at 325-375 bps.
#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #FOMC #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets #CentralBanks
Currently, the market is factoring in target rate probabilities (Dec 2022 FOMC meeting) at 325-375 bps.
#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #FOMC #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets #CentralBanks
📉Desired demand reduction is visible.
Consumer confidence and subsequently, Retail is taking a massive beating.
JP Morgan global aggregates. 👇
#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #FOMC #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets
Consumer confidence and subsequently, Retail is taking a massive beating.
JP Morgan global aggregates. 👇
#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #FOMC #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets
The #JobsReport came in at 372,000 jobs gained, the #unemployment rate at 3.6%, which was coupled with #wage growth of 5.1% year-over-year: all solid numbers in a historic context.
Still, when taken in the context of much of the #economic data coming in, last week’s #employment report reemphasized two key tenets of the economy and consequently of #investment markets: 1) the U.S., and indeed the global economy, is tangibly slowing…
…and 2) we are probably past the #employment peak and will likely witness #LaborMarket slowing in the back half of the year.
As was widely expected, the @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for the Federal Funds #policy rate by 50 basis points (bps), to between 0.75% and 1.0%, and announced the start of #runoff of the central bank’s balance sheet.
As previously suggested by the #Fed’s March minutes, the pace of runoff was confirmed today as $95 billion/month ($60 billion in U.S. #Treasuries and $35 billion in Agency #MBS, with a three-month phase-in period.
Also as expected, the statement reiterated that the #FOMC “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” underscoring the seriousness of #Fed policymakers in getting #inflation and inflation expectations under control.
Trump can afford to lose 36 electoral votes from his 2016 total and still hold on to the White House. But Biden currently leads in polls of all 6 of the closest Trump states from 2016:
MI (16 EVs)
PA (20)
WI (10)
FL (29)
AZ (11)
NC (15)
A short thread:
projects.economist.com/us-2020-foreca…
MI (16 EVs)
PA (20)
WI (10)
FL (29)
AZ (11)
NC (15)
A short thread:
projects.economist.com/us-2020-foreca…
On the one hand, Biden is clearly in a good position. If the polls look like they do today on election day, our model will give him close to a 92% chance of winning the election. We're still a long way away, but that's roughly where things are headed.
But on the other hand (and especially because of Trump's relative electoral college advantage), it actually wouldn't take much to nudge the race closer to 60/40 or even 50/50. A streak of good polls in FL or PA would get him much of the way to a tied race.
June 15: Multiple polls showing Biden up 9 nationally and one showing him down 1 in Iowa nudged the forecast a bit his way. But overall, things haven’t changed that much over the last couple of weeks. State polls have been showing Biden up big for months. projects.economist.com/us-2020-foreca…
June 16: Lots of polls with Biden up nearly 10 points in swing states today. Combined with yet another dip in Trump's approval ratings, the forecast moved ever so slightly toward the Democrat today. A new Civiqs poll pushed AZ to the left of NC (where it belongs, IMO).
June 17: A batch of state-level Change Research polls may have thrown the model for a bone today were it not for several national polls that were clearly good for Biden. The fallout from the unrest continues to push down Trump's chances of re-election.
projects.economist.com/us-2020-foreca…
projects.economist.com/us-2020-foreca…
I am going to use Twitter as a diary of sorts to explain what happened with our presidential election forecast (and why) on most days between now and November 3rd.
A thread:
projects.economist.com/us-2020-foreca…
A thread:
projects.economist.com/us-2020-foreca…
June 11: The chance of a Biden victory increased from 83 to 85%. Most of this was caused by a Biden+13 & Biden+8 poll nationally (both weighted by past vote), and a D+3 poll in FL.
Trump’s approval ratings also decreased today, dragging down our prior.
projects.economist.com/us-2020-foreca…
Trump’s approval ratings also decreased today, dragging down our prior.
projects.economist.com/us-2020-foreca…
June 12: Not much movement in the forecast. The topline probability is the same. Biden’s polling margin shifted up 0.1 in FL, AZ, and GA.
The polling average in OH went from blue to red, but the e-day forecast is still red. Worst numbers for Trump yet.
projects.economist.com/us-2020-foreca…
The polling average in OH went from blue to red, but the e-day forecast is still red. Worst numbers for Trump yet.
projects.economist.com/us-2020-foreca…
hearing—"#China's Worldwide #Military Expansion" is a dramatic bellwether of growing concerns in Washington & beyond.
Now online—hard-hitting arguments + many data points, some deeply-analyzed yet hard to find elsewhere in public domain:
bit.ly/HouseIC
Now online—hard-hitting arguments + many data points, some deeply-analyzed yet hard to find elsewhere in public domain:
bit.ly/HouseIC
CAPT Jim Fanell, USN Ret, former @USPacificFleet N2:
"today, the PLA Navy consists of over 330 surface ships & 66 submarines, nearly 400 combatants. As of 4 May 2018, the @USNavy consists of 283 battle force ships: 211 surface ships and 72 submarines."
bit.ly/HouseIC
"today, the PLA Navy consists of over 330 surface ships & 66 submarines, nearly 400 combatants. As of 4 May 2018, the @USNavy consists of 283 battle force ships: 211 surface ships and 72 submarines."
bit.ly/HouseIC
"By 2030, it is estimated [by Fanell & @SCheneyPeters in their chapter in @NavalWarCollege @ChinaMaritime Studies Institute's Chinese Naval Shipbuilding volume amazon.com/Chinese-Naval-… @USNIBooks that] the PLANavy will consist of some 550 ships: 450 surface ships & 99 submarines."
