Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #riskoff

@bolsaconcabeza

Hoy es de esos días que los mercados se pueden mover bastante con el dato de inflación. Una reflexión. ABRO HILO.

Como dice Druckenmiller, "Nunca, nunca inviertas en el presente." Mucho menos en el pasado. Y el dato de CPI de hoy es del pasado.

El futuro nos trae una desaceleración que será más fuerte conforme avance 2023.

Hoy el dato de julio puede que siga acelerando (en Europa lo ha hecho en varios países) y provocar una sensación de que la FED ha perdido el control. #RiskOff.

Read 7 tweets

Alan Kooper

@alan_kooper

#RiskOn / #RiskOff Zde mé slíbené vysvětlení. Nevím co znamená RiskOn/Off pro jiné systémy nebo interpretace. Možná jsem mohl použít jiné názvy. Já to mám ale vžité už léta a prostě jsem to použil. Pokud se to používá i někde jinde, půjde na 100% o něco jiného než o co jde mě 1/n

Sledují mě tu stále nové a nové lidi a chápu, že to může působit možná až jako nějaké „čárymáry“. Že si tady tak zvesela měřím geo-politcké dění na SP500 a interpretuji to v grafech. Je to ale prostě úplně obráceně. Mě osobně přijde neuvěřitelné spíše to, že spousta 2/n

lidí/obchodníků něco střílí od boku jen na bázi toho, že si to myslí, že mají pocit. To mě k moodixu vlastně dovedlo. To nekonečné množství názorů, ego her. Vlastně hlavně ego her. Boj o to kdo trefí tohle dno, tuhle otočku, tenhle krach, tuhle rally a bude plácán po zádech. 3/n

Read 25 tweets

trendwhizo

@trendwhizo

🚨FOMC preview ...🧵

Target rate probabilities for July 27 (Wed) between 225 and 275 with 3x as much probability on 225-250 (75 bps).

#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets #CentralBanks

Fed will be data driven.

Currently, the market is factoring in target rate probabilities (Dec 2022 FOMC meeting) at 325-375 bps.

#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #FOMC #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets #CentralBanks

📉Desired demand reduction is visible.

Consumer confidence and subsequently, Retail is taking a massive beating.

JP Morgan global aggregates. 👇

#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #FOMC #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets

Read 4 tweets

Paul Guerra

@PaulGrra

The Power of The Dollar 🧵

[a thread for normies -like me]

Long periods of #dollar-strength often ended with massive financial dislocations like the Latin American #debt crisis of the 80s and the Asian crisis of the 90s.

Oppositely, long periods of a weakening dollar came with strong markets like between 2003-2007.

1/20

Although the #USdollar is not itself an asset, cash is.

The dollar is the most common currency in which assets are quoted and exchanged in #financialmarkets and the economy.

It's the world's reserve currency (for now at least...) 2/ 20

Read 22 tweets

Sanju Verma

@Sanju_Verma_

Congressi trolls who know nothing about Economy,are giving gyaan on #Dollar& #Rupee

Yes Rupee hit 77.40 to a Dollar,but,but..

Every major currency has hit lows against Dollar

China's Yuan hit 2yr low@ 6.7 to $
Euro hit 5yr low@ 1.04 to a $

#DollarIndex hit 20yr high at 104.07

Some Business News anchors are saying Rupee has fallen against Dollar because our monthly #TradeDeficit is hitting $20bn&our Current Account Deficit(CAD),will be 3%

Well,$20bn a month Trade Deficit is no big deal for us,given that our Goods+Services Exports are a massive $670bn

2.5-3% CAD for an economy growing at average of 7.5-9.5% is not a big deal either

In fact,in last 8yrs,average CAD under @narendramodi govt has been sub 2%,so we have enough leeway on that count

Why then are major Currencies falling against Dollar?

Well,reason is,Fed Rate Hike

Read 5 tweets

Ted Darling

@tdarling1

Hello Friday and the week to date!

$USD +0.3%
$CNY -1.27%
$GOLD -1.35%

$BTC +2.0%
$COFFEE +1.95%
$CORN +1.45%
$COPPER -0.4%
$WTIC -2.95%
$NATGAS -4.7%

$DAX +2.4%
$CAC +1.9%
$NIKK +1.7%
$COMPQ -1.3%
$HSI -3.9%
$SSEC -4.1%

$TNX +3.15%

Let's dig into the 🧮!

Asia closed the week on a ↘️🎵

$NIKK 27105 -1.65%
$SSEC 3087 +0.25%
$TWII 17025 -0.6%
$HSI 20614 -0.35%
$KOSPI 2705 -0.85%
$IDX 7226 -0.7%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7473 -1.55%

India ↘️
$BSE 47555 -0.6%

Europe ↘️ in the open hours

$DAX 14320 -1.25%
$FTSE 7599 -0.4%
$CAC 6625 -1.35%
$AEX 721 -1.1%
$IBEX 87535 -0.65%
$MIB 24499 -1.25%
$SMI 12300 unch
$MOEX -0.5% 🪆

$VSTOXX 24.54

Read 11 tweets

Ted Darling

@tdarling1

Hello Monday! 🎢

What a month February has been!
$SSEC +2.7%
$SPX -2.9%
$DAX -5.05%

$GOLD +5.1%
$WTIC +3.9%
$WHEAT +12.9%

$USD +0.08%

$VIX 27.59 +257 BPS

$TNX 1.986% +25.7 BPS

Let's dig into Monday

Asian equities closed ↗️

$NIKK 26527 +0.2%
$SSEC 3462 +0.3%
$TWII 17652 +0.35%
$HSI 22713 -0.25% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2699 +0.85%
$IDX 6888 +1.05%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 12431 +0.1%

India ↗️
$BSE 56131 +0.5%

Europe under 🪆🐻 pressure ↘️

$DAX 15225 -2.35%
$FTSE 7385 -1.4%
$CAC 6564 -2.8%
$AEX 716 -1.6%
$IBEX 8381 -1.25%
$MIB 25125 -1.25%
$SMI 11908 -0.65%

$MOEX closed as Russia CB raises interest rates to 20% 😱

Read 11 tweets

Ted Darling

@tdarling1

Hello February! 🐰🐰

Biggest mistake of January?
Selling most of my $CRB +9.79% exposure

No 👀 back and 😭 over spilled 🥛

Time to grab the 🐯 by the #tail and dig into the 🧮!

Most of Asia celebrating 🐯

Good idea given January returns with $KOSPI -10.56%, $SSEC -7.65, and $NIKK -6.22%

Tuesday trading
$NIKK 27078 +0.3%
$BSE 58871 +0.8%

January returns for Euro area were ↘️ but better than USA and Asia

January: $DAX -2.6% and $CAC -2.15%

Early trade
$DAX 15599 +0.8%
$FTSE 7533 +0.9%
$CAC 7065 +0.95%
$AEX 762 +0.9%
$IBEX 8706 +1.1%
$MIB 27091 +1.05%
$SMI 12327 +0.8%
$MOEX 3561 +0.9% 🪆

Read 10 tweets

Ted Darling

@tdarling1

Welcome to ever grand Monday where the sky is red and so if your long book.

Let's dig into the good, the grand, and the #fugly

Shanghai showing no signs of stress but $HSI ↘️

$NIKK 30500 +0.6%
$SSEC 3614 +0.2%
$TWII 12277 unch
$HSI 24077 -3.4%
$KOSPI 3141 +0.35%
$IDX 6076 -0.9%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7248 -2.1%

India ↘️
$BSE 58891 -0.2%

European bourses ↘️↘️

$DAX 15163 -2.1%
$CAC 6428 -2.2%
$FTSE 6865 -1.4%
$AEX 778 -1.4%
$IBEX 8577 -2.1%
$MIB 25149 -2.2%
$SMI 11781 -1.3%
$MOEX 3985 -1.2%

Read 13 tweets

Sanju Verma

@Sanju_Verma_

So biggest casualty of #Fed warning on #US #economy y'day, was #Gold,which dropped 3% to $1951.90 an ounce,within minutes of #FedMinutes

Silver too fell below $28

Rout was not limited to precious metals--#Nasdaq sold off despite #Apple hitting $2 trillion market cap

#Covid_19

#CrudeOil whipsawed in tight range with #WTI at $42.83

#Fed's take on economic downturn was nothing new&yet markets collapsed

Only asset which saw aggressive buying was US #Tbills,with 10 yr #bond #yield@ 0.665% Vs previous close of 0.685%

#Dollar had its best day in 2 months

So what does y'day's frenzied buying in #bonds indicate?Is the #RiskOn trade over?

Well,not quite--With $9 trillion of excess global #liquidity sloshing around due to coordinated Central Bank rate cuts,since #Covid_19, equities will move up,albeit with severe bouts of volatility

Read 7 tweets

Henrik Zeberg

@HenrikZeberg

As you all know #deflation has been my theme for some time. It is obvious looking at charts like #Copper and #Oil. Here is #Oil. Ending Diagonal which will send Oil <23 USD during 2019/2020. This has been my call since top in 2018. It is >70% drop --> deflationary #HZupdates

#Copper shows same picture. #Deflation is coming. We are in wave 5 of C in expanding diagonal. Current bounce is wave 2 - will rally slightly higher - before major drop. I imagine this is what Powell starts getting indications on #HZupdates

Notice 2008 Q1-Q3 - during last deflationary phase. Fed had been tightening up to Sept. 2007 - and started lowering rates. BUT damage had been done to economy. World rolled over and #deflation /disinflation. It was from Q1-Q3 2008. #Copper plunged. Same situation now! #HZupdates

Read 22 tweets

Henrik Zeberg

@HenrikZeberg

#Equities #SP500 was rallying and the bulls are cheering. The excuse seems to be, that Powell has blinked. Remember 2007-09? Fed started lowering rates by September 07. Yet that did not prevent Financial markets to decline hard until March 2009 #HZupdates

The thing is, that when liquidity #crunch snowball gets rolling, some announcement from #Fed will not do the job. Down the line, Fed will need to scramble (QE or the like) to fight USD shortage. My LT #SP500 model remains like this. Major Bear market ABC-structure. #HZupdates

I will not reveal my EW-count for #SP500 here. That is reserved for subscribers and buyers of Weekly Update. Only say, that we have not seen an impulse wave since Sept high. I expect a MAJOR decline to set in rather soon, taking us to my bottom of wave A from LT-chart. #HZupdates

Read 17 tweets

Henrik Zeberg

@HenrikZeberg

Hi all 😀It has been a good year! 2019 will be difficult for world economy. A lot of fall outs ahead from disinflationary environment. Get ready for last #HZupdates from the old year 👍

As I laid out at the beginning of 2018, we have seen a rally in #DXY. The USD rally is not over yet. I expect the rally to continuing into 2019 - reaching min. 107 before the rally is over, This will have deflationary consequences across various markets #HZupdates

#EURUSD topped early 2018 and has dropped to a low of 1.121 by Nov. But - this is not the end of this major Bear market for Euro. LT-target remains 0.91 likely to be reached by Q2/Q3 2019 #HZupdates

Read 16 tweets

Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #riskoff

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Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #riskoff

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