Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #LaborMarket
Most recents (13)
As was widely expected, the @federalreserve today halted the most aggressive policy rate #HikingCycle since 1980, leaving the Fed Funds range unchanged at 5.0% to 5.25%, a level that appears clear to us to be finally having an impact on the #economy.
We think today’s actions represent a “Hawkish skip,” which implies that #policy makers are seeking more #data before potentially hiking rates again in July, or September.
For our part, we think #ChairPowell’s comments at the press conference made it clear that the #FOMC is seeking to balance increasingly restrictive monetary policy with the high degree of uncertainty around the tightening of #CreditConditions…
1/10 *Thread* 🧵
🚀 US Labor Market: May payrolls rise by 339K, surpassing the 190K Dow Jones estimate, and marking the 29th straight month of positive job growth. Unemployment rate increases slightly to 3.7% - still near the lowest since 1969. #LaborMarket #JobGrowth
🚀 US Labor Market: May payrolls rise by 339K, surpassing the 190K Dow Jones estimate, and marking the 29th straight month of positive job growth. Unemployment rate increases slightly to 3.7% - still near the lowest since 1969. #LaborMarket #JobGrowth
2/10
📈 This surge in job creation reveals a resilient labor market despite various challenges. Average hourly earnings, a key inflation indicator, rose 0.3% for the month, and wages increased 4.3% annually. #EconomicGrowth #Inflation
📈 This surge in job creation reveals a resilient labor market despite various challenges. Average hourly earnings, a key inflation indicator, rose 0.3% for the month, and wages increased 4.3% annually. #EconomicGrowth #Inflation
3/10
💼 Job creation is led by professional and business services (64K new hires), followed by government (56K) and healthcare (52K). Other notable sectors include leisure and hospitality (48K), construction (25K), and transportation and warehousing (24K). #JobCreation
💼 Job creation is led by professional and business services (64K new hires), followed by government (56K) and healthcare (52K). Other notable sectors include leisure and hospitality (48K), construction (25K), and transportation and warehousing (24K). #JobCreation
1/15 *Thread*🧵US Housing Market 2023: An investors outlook🏠
Key trend: Low supply, strong demand. Let's explore why investing in this market cycle could yield strong returns.
#USHousingMarket #RealEstateInvesting #EconomicTrends
Key trend: Low supply, strong demand. Let's explore why investing in this market cycle could yield strong returns.
#USHousingMarket #RealEstateInvesting #EconomicTrends
2/15
US added 339,000 jobs in May '23, surpassing predictions of 190,000. Unemployment rate is at a near 50-year low despite being up to 3.7%, above the 3.5% forecast. A robust labor market is fundamental to a thriving housing market.
#JobsReport #Unemployment
US added 339,000 jobs in May '23, surpassing predictions of 190,000. Unemployment rate is at a near 50-year low despite being up to 3.7%, above the 3.5% forecast. A robust labor market is fundamental to a thriving housing market.
#JobsReport #Unemployment
3/15 Interest rates are rising fast, yet the labor market is holding strong. The strong labor market translates into steady demand for housing, maintaining a positive outlook for property investors.
#InterestRates #LaborMarket
#InterestRates #LaborMarket
We’ve seen the pace of #payroll gains decelerate to roughly the monthly trend pace from the last expansion; consensus has been waiting for this moment and expected a 195,000 job gain in May, but the data printed considerably stronger at 339,000 #jobs gained.
The three-month moving average of #nonfarm payrolls sits at 283,000, down from 334,000 jobs at the start of the year, but what the #LaborMarket imbalance needs is more supply and more slack.
The #unemployment rate ticked up to 3.65%, close to its 12-month average level, and average hourly #earnings (a volatile figure) gained 0.33% month-over-month and 4.3% on a year-over-year basis.
Today’s #JobsReport was very solid, but like is often the case in the movies, it’s very hard for the sequel (today’s report) to match such an unexpected hit (January’s revised 504,000 jobs gained).
Still, a nonfarm #payroll gain of 311,000 jobs is quite good and having 815,000 jobs created so far this year after the #economy has already created 12 million #jobs over the past two years is pretty amazing in its own right.
Further, the 3-month moving average of 351,000 jobs, after a 12-month moving average of 362,000 jobs gained per month is also pretty remarkable, particularly after the market-implied pricing of the terminal #FedFunds rate has move up 500 basis points (bps) in a year.
In testimony before #Congress yesterday, @federalreserve #ChairPowell unsurprisingly displayed resolve that the central bank’s fight to return inflation closer to its 2% target is unfinished and that the historical record suggests that relenting too soon would be a mistake.
Chair #Powell signaled more rate hikes and a higher terminal rate than previous #Fed projections, and an openness to adjust the pace of rate hikes depending on the totality of the data.
With the strength recently witnessed in the #LaborMarket data, in various #inflation measures and in #economic growth readings more generally, this resolve by policymakers would seem to be not only required, but critical to returning inflation to more normal levels.
Today’s #JobsReport was a clear indication that #LaborMarket dynamics are softening. For example, the 3-mo. moving average of nonfarm #payroll growth sits at 247k jobs, after a higher-than-expected print of 223k jobs for Dec, in contrast to 2022’s average mo. #job gain of 375k.
The #JobsReport came in at 372,000 jobs gained, the #unemployment rate at 3.6%, which was coupled with #wage growth of 5.1% year-over-year: all solid numbers in a historic context.
Still, when taken in the context of much of the #economic data coming in, last week’s #employment report reemphasized two key tenets of the economy and consequently of #investment markets: 1) the U.S., and indeed the global economy, is tangibly slowing…
…and 2) we are probably past the #employment peak and will likely witness #LaborMarket slowing in the back half of the year.
"Getting up and doing even ten minutes of light to moderate physical activity a few times [per] day is an effective strategy in reducing the likelihood of having a stroke. For overall heart and brain health, move more ... and sit less." Steven P. Hooker greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2022/06/09/dai…
First microplastics found in Antarctic snow
phys.org/news/2022-06-m…
#MicroplasticsDiscovery, #AntarcticSnow
phys.org/news/2022-06-m…
#MicroplasticsDiscovery, #AntarcticSnow
Oren Cass on Twitter and ThreadReader
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1534522…
#StudentLoans, #StudentDebt, #HigherEducation, #CostBenefit
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1534522…
#StudentLoans, #StudentDebt, #HigherEducation, #CostBenefit
Anyone perusing the top articles of major media outlets last weekend would have read several pieces on the extraordinary #shortages being witnessed in the U.S. #economy today, and particularly those in the #labor market.
The tone of many articles was pessimistic, suggesting that the #supply-side #shortages and dislocations may be systemic, or long-term, but we think there’s evidence that the U.S. #economy will display considerably greater dynamism and resilience than the pessimists believe.
Great conversation with @MerrillLynch CIO Chris Hyzy, as part of their #MerrillPerspectives event. Some of the topics we discuss follow and the full conversation can be accessed here: ml.com/2021-midyear-e…
On the #market lessons stemming from the pandemic, I suggested that- stepping back- while a lot has been thrown at the #economy and markets over the past 30 years, in every case the #policy response has been critical to evaluate in judging the ultimate impact: policy matters!
That said, we think there is an overestimation of the importance of exceedingly low #policy rate levels to the recovery but maintaining the stability and #liquidity of the financing #markets is critical, particularly at the top end of the capital stack.
1/10: Do state actions affect the #psych #wellbeing of govt benefit recipients? In a new #openaccess @JPART1991 paper, @MartinBaekgaard, @SassMikkelsen, @JonasKrogh and I investigate this in the context of Danish #unemployment benefits. Short answer: Yes! academic.oup.com/jpart/advance-…
2/10: To test the question, we rely on survey, quasi, & natural experimental evidence, utilizing the fact that in March last year, as part of the #COVID19dk #lockdown, the usually strict active #labormarket policies of DK were suddenly suspended -> benefits became unconditional.
3/10: In other words, from 1 day to the next, unemployed ppl did no longer have to comply with a lot of demands (job training, work requirements, mandatory control meetings with caseworkers, documentation requirements, etc.) to receive benefits. What happened to their well-being?
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 6/10/2020-2
greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/06/10/dai…
Joe Weisenthal on Twitter: How One Familiar-Looking Chart Explains the Weirdness of the U.S. Labor Market
#LaborMarket
greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/06/10/dai…
Joe Weisenthal on Twitter: How One Familiar-Looking Chart Explains the Weirdness of the U.S. Labor Market
#LaborMarket
Protesters’ Demands in Response to Police Brutality Have Come a Long Way Since the 1992 LA Rebellion
jacobinmag.com/2020/06/police…
#brutality #race #rebellion #police
jacobinmag.com/2020/06/police…
#brutality #race #rebellion #police
The biggest mystery: what it will take to trace the coronavirus source
nature.com/articles/d4158…
#coronavirus
nature.com/articles/d4158…
#coronavirus
