Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #inflation
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🇬🇧 UK May Inflation Soars
Headline (+8.7% YoY) and core (+7.1% YoY) beat consensus expectations by +0.3ppt.
As a result, the May MPR forecasts are looking very stale.
Let's dig in!
One (of a couple) 🧵s I'll be putting on BoE/monetary policy...
#CPI #inflation #BoE
Headline (+8.7% YoY) and core (+7.1% YoY) beat consensus expectations by +0.3ppt.
As a result, the May MPR forecasts are looking very stale.
Let's dig in!
One (of a couple) 🧵s I'll be putting on BoE/monetary policy...
#CPI #inflation #BoE
The +0.7% MoM core reading, while not so extreme as the Apr level, presented a continued strong beat of typical monthly values.
Since Feb, core inflation has shown only very small signs of returning towards the 2% target. The BoE will need to be done to counter it.
Since Feb, core inflation has shown only very small signs of returning towards the 2% target. The BoE will need to be done to counter it.
Inflation remained very broad: 10/12 sectors beat their typical monthly rate.
Big beats came in Clothing, Comms & Rec. The re-acceleration in restaurants is also a concern
If anything, this is more worrying to the BoE than the surprise jumps in Apr.
Big beats came in Clothing, Comms & Rec. The re-acceleration in restaurants is also a concern
If anything, this is more worrying to the BoE than the surprise jumps in Apr.
What’s Propping Up The US Consumer?
Last week, Darius joined @maggielake from @RealVision to discuss Rate Hikes, #Inflation, the Stock Market, and more.
In case you missed it, here are five takeaways from the interview every investor needs to know:
Last week, Darius joined @maggielake from @RealVision to discuss Rate Hikes, #Inflation, the Stock Market, and more.
In case you missed it, here are five takeaways from the interview every investor needs to know:
1) The Market Believes The Fed Is Done Hiking. We Are Fading That View.
Currently, money markets are pricing in the assumption that future inflation data will force the Fed to pause at their July meeting.
Currently, money markets are pricing in the assumption that future inflation data will force the Fed to pause at their July meeting.
Moreover, money markets are pricing in twice as much easing over the next two years by the Fed as they are the ECB (Fed: ~200 basis points; ECB: ~100 basis points).
We believe this is unlikely because 1) the European economy is already in recession, and
We believe this is unlikely because 1) the European economy is already in recession, and
On CPI
1. CPI #Inflation increased by 0.12% in May, surprising consensus expectations of 0.1%. This print contributed to a sequential deceleration in the quarterly trend relative to the yearly trend.
1. CPI #Inflation increased by 0.12% in May, surprising consensus expectations of 0.1%. This print contributed to a sequential deceleration in the quarterly trend relative to the yearly trend.
2. Above we show the monthly evolution of the data relative to its 12-monthly trend and consensus expectations.
3. At the subcomponent level, the primary drivers of this print were #Motor fuel (-0.2%), #Energy Services (-0.05%), Transportation Commodities Less Motor Fuel (0.11%), #Shelter (0.19%), & #Transportation Services (0.05%). Below, we show the top 10 drivers of the monthly change:
Treasury Market Signal 🧵
1. CPI Inflation increased by 0.12% in May, surprising consensus expectations of 0.1%. This print contributed to a sequential deceleration in the quarterly trend relative to the yearly trend.
1. CPI Inflation increased by 0.12% in May, surprising consensus expectations of 0.1%. This print contributed to a sequential deceleration in the quarterly trend relative to the yearly trend.
2. However, we think it is important to note that excluding food and energy, i.e., core CPI, was up 0.40% this month— implying a 4.9% annualized rate for core inflation. This data is far removed from the Fed’s objective.
As was widely expected, the @federalreserve today halted the most aggressive policy rate #HikingCycle since 1980, leaving the Fed Funds range unchanged at 5.0% to 5.25%, a level that appears clear to us to be finally having an impact on the #economy.
We think today’s actions represent a “Hawkish skip,” which implies that #policy makers are seeking more #data before potentially hiking rates again in July, or September.
For our part, we think #ChairPowell’s comments at the press conference made it clear that the #FOMC is seeking to balance increasingly restrictive monetary policy with the high degree of uncertainty around the tightening of #CreditConditions…
"Why do we need #Bitcoin ?"
Here's one reason explained to a 5th grader (#eli5)
It's a decent orange pill 🍊💊 for those who don't really understand #inflation (or feel its effects that much).
1/10
Here's one reason explained to a 5th grader (#eli5)
It's a decent orange pill 🍊💊 for those who don't really understand #inflation (or feel its effects that much).
1/10
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3/10
Today’s #CPI report for May showed another very firm depiction of where #inflation currently resides in the U.S., with #coreCPI (excluding volatile food and energy components) printing at 0.44% month-over-month and 5.33% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, #headlineCPI data printed 0.12% month-over-month and came in just above 4% year-over-year, with declines in #energy components and some food prices being offset by gains in #shelter and used cars and trucks.
Overall, headline #inflation does appear to be moderating at a faster pace and we believe that the trend in inflation (despite the firmness of core measures in today’s report) is broadly heading in the right direction, relative to the @federalreserve’s inflation target.
#Inflation in #India
1. While general level at 4.3% for May is close to the target, it is closer to 5% for all sub-groups other than Food & Beverages (3.2% in May).
2. It implies that core inflation is now within the target range, though > target of 4%.
1. While general level at 4.3% for May is close to the target, it is closer to 5% for all sub-groups other than Food & Beverages (3.2% in May).
2. It implies that core inflation is now within the target range, though > target of 4%.
3. Groups where pricing power is with producer show higher inflation (health, education, clothing & footwear, personal care, etc.)
4. Inflation for transport & communications is low, as the gov. & telecom industry is not exercising their PP in view of elections, as reported.
4. Inflation for transport & communications is low, as the gov. & telecom industry is not exercising their PP in view of elections, as reported.
The Weekly Recap (05.06.23 ~ 10.06.23) 🧵
Missed out anything from a week full of #Macro & #Markets? Don't worry - we got you covered.
Below we share all the updates & opinions threads from last week. Make sure to follow @prometheusmacro for much more.
Missed out anything from a week full of #Macro & #Markets? Don't worry - we got you covered.
Below we share all the updates & opinions threads from last week. Make sure to follow @prometheusmacro for much more.
1. We started the week by sharing updates on the latest #construction data. Overall, we noted that residential construction spending improved recently, that also flowed into our GDP Nowcast and real GDP estimate.
2. Next, we provided an update on the latest readings from our Market Regime Monitor and the latest Prometheus Trend Signals.
Key Takeaways from Month in Macro
1. Nominal #GDP slowed through April, with real GDP contracting by -0.47% and #inflation rising by 0.23%. #Nominal GDP has grown approximately 4.7% from one year prior, continuing the downtrend beginning in February 2022.
1. Nominal #GDP slowed through April, with real GDP contracting by -0.47% and #inflation rising by 0.23%. #Nominal GDP has grown approximately 4.7% from one year prior, continuing the downtrend beginning in February 2022.
2. During this time, #equity markets have posed significant strength (though lopsided), while #treasury markets have weakened in unison.
3. Looking forward, these sequential improvements have adjusted our #real growth outlook, with a #contraction in yearly real GDP growth more likely in H1 2024 than in Q4 2023. Our #inflation outlook remains one of resilient inflation.
He has BLOCKED me but @profholden once asked for a “formal theory” of MMT. Well here it is.
The model examines two claims of Modern Monetary Theory: 1) The government determines the price level through the prices it pays when it spends. 2) Deficient demand results when the government does not supply enough currency to meet private demand. #MMT 🏛️💸
The model builds a "monopoly money" framework where the government sets the "price of money" through its spending. While private actors recirculate government currency, they depend on the government as the monopoly supplier. #MonopolyMoney 💰📈
In webcast “Dust in the Crevices,” Jeffrey Gundlach shares his macro and market views and makes the case for an imminent dust-up, “in the next few years,” in Washington’s decades-long use of debt finance to skirt hard fiscal decisions.
#macro #markets #Fed #inflation #rates
#macro #markets #Fed #inflation #rates
“Here we are in an economy that is supposedly growing, and yet we have 7.3% budget deficit as a % of GDP,” DoubleLine CEO and founder Jeffrey Gundlach says.
That figure is probably headed much higher, especially if the U.S. enters recession.
That figure is probably headed much higher, especially if the U.S. enters recession.
In the wake of hikes of 525 bps in the fed funds rate and 400 bps along many parts of the Treasury curve, DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach notes the burden of federal debt service has surged higher in dollar terms and as a percentage of GDP.
Watch:
Watch:
#RBIPolicy | @RBI’s Monetary policy Committee decides to maintain status quo, policy rate (Repo Rate) is unchanged at 6.50%
@RBI @ShereenBhan @latha_venkatesh @_ritusingh @nimeshscnbc @_prashantnair #RBIPolicy | Policy stance is maintained at Withdrawal of Accommodation with MPC voting in favour of this in the ratio of 5:1
@RBI @ShereenBhan @latha_venkatesh @_ritusingh @nimeshscnbc @_prashantnair #RBIPolicy | MSF & Bank rates unchanged at 6.75%
Today's Twitter threads (a Twitter thread).
Inside: To save the news, repeal the app tax; Hey look at this; and more!
Archived at: pluralistic.net/2023/06/07/cur…
#Pluralistic
1/
Inside: To save the news, repeal the app tax; Hey look at this; and more!
Archived at: pluralistic.net/2023/06/07/cur…
#Pluralistic
1/
Today 7/6, I'm keynoting @republica in #Berlin:
re-publica.com/de/news/rp23-k…
Tomorrow 8/6, I'm at @otherlandberlin Books with my novel *Red Team Blues*:
otherland-berlin.de/de/event-detai…
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re-publica.com/de/news/rp23-k…
Tomorrow 8/6, I'm at @otherlandberlin Books with my novel *Red Team Blues*:
otherland-berlin.de/de/event-detai…
2/
To save the news, repeal the app tax: The latest in "saving the news from Big Tech."
3/
3/
Short summary of the Cake DeFi Twitter Space on 6 June: 1/11 📢 In a recent @cakedefi space, @julianhosp & @andreattafab discussed the current state of the #cryptocurrency industry. Key focus: the SEC's lawsuit against Binance and its impact on the crypto community. #CryptoNews
2/11 Notably, they shed light on the difference in allegations against #Coinbase and #Binance, suggesting the latter's case might be more severe. Discussion ensued about potential regulatory actions of the US government. #CryptoRegulations
3/11 The hosts also dove into the lawsuit implications for coins like ADA, SOL, and BNB. Despite some fear in the community, they reminded listeners that being classified as a security doesn't spell the end for a coin. #CryptoInvesting
Smith, for all his virtues, here begs the question of what determines prices. If it were always simply at the whim of the producer why would such individuals and firms limit themselves to (1.05)^n? Why not 1.1? 1.2? 2? 200? 2000?
If each stage could only reap its 5%, why...
If each stage could only reap its 5%, why...
...would each not strive to acquire all those identifiably up- and downstream of it, collapsing the very division of labour Smith so correctly lauded?
And what of the VALUE of these so easily dictated profits? If the final price rises exponentially, the entrepreneur’s return...
And what of the VALUE of these so easily dictated profits? If the final price rises exponentially, the entrepreneur’s return...
...turns to dust in his hands: his 5% surplus buys only 1/(1.05)^[n-1] finished goods in the worst case, so who benefits? And where does the money come from to pay such a pyramid of rising purchase and sale prices if not from the REAL #inflation determinant - expanding credit!?
1/10 *Thread* 🧵
🚀 US Labor Market: May payrolls rise by 339K, surpassing the 190K Dow Jones estimate, and marking the 29th straight month of positive job growth. Unemployment rate increases slightly to 3.7% - still near the lowest since 1969. #LaborMarket #JobGrowth
🚀 US Labor Market: May payrolls rise by 339K, surpassing the 190K Dow Jones estimate, and marking the 29th straight month of positive job growth. Unemployment rate increases slightly to 3.7% - still near the lowest since 1969. #LaborMarket #JobGrowth
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📈 This surge in job creation reveals a resilient labor market despite various challenges. Average hourly earnings, a key inflation indicator, rose 0.3% for the month, and wages increased 4.3% annually. #EconomicGrowth #Inflation
📈 This surge in job creation reveals a resilient labor market despite various challenges. Average hourly earnings, a key inflation indicator, rose 0.3% for the month, and wages increased 4.3% annually. #EconomicGrowth #Inflation
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💼 Job creation is led by professional and business services (64K new hires), followed by government (56K) and healthcare (52K). Other notable sectors include leisure and hospitality (48K), construction (25K), and transportation and warehousing (24K). #JobCreation
💼 Job creation is led by professional and business services (64K new hires), followed by government (56K) and healthcare (52K). Other notable sectors include leisure and hospitality (48K), construction (25K), and transportation and warehousing (24K). #JobCreation
1/If you are not paying attention, there are three stories that are converging as a tsunami for ocean shipping and you need to be aware of them.
2/First, freight rates are at an all time low. We have come off the Mt Everest of rates &3 now seeing trans-Pacific rates at lower than pre-COVID.
This translates into more opportunity for shippers but the ocean carriers are set to lose their profits.
gcaptain.com/container-ship…
This translates into more opportunity for shippers but the ocean carriers are set to lose their profits.
gcaptain.com/container-ship…
3/Second, Panama Canal is seeing record level lows on Gatun Lake. This is the water source for the canal since it is above sea level. This has not been a major issue but with neo-Panamax ships sailing from Asia to East Coast of US, they need more water.
gcaptain.com/the-feds-infla…
gcaptain.com/the-feds-infla…
1/ Die #Inflation ist zuletzt global gefallen und in der letzten Woche in Europa sogar stärker als erwartet.
Dies wird nun teilweise als das Ende der Inflation gefeiert.
Ist das so?
Ein Thread 🧵der meine Sichtweise beschreiben soll.
Dies wird nun teilweise als das Ende der Inflation gefeiert.
Ist das so?
Ein Thread 🧵der meine Sichtweise beschreiben soll.
2/ Die fallende Geldmenge ist definitiv ein Argument für eine weiter zurück kommende #Inflation in den kommenden Monaten.
@DiegoFassnacht hat das zuletzt mehrmals angesprochen und erklärt. Vielen Dank!
@DiegoFassnacht hat das zuletzt mehrmals angesprochen und erklärt. Vielen Dank!
3/ Ein weiteres Argument sind die kontinuierlich fallenden Produzentenpreise, die gerne als Vorläufer für den #CPI dienen.
Diesen Zusammenhang verdeutlicht die Graphik von @AndreasSteno eindrucksvoll. Mange tak!
Diesen Zusammenhang verdeutlicht die Graphik von @AndreasSteno eindrucksvoll. Mange tak!
Dissecting CPI 🧵👇
1. While over 300 line items drive CPI that we have visibility into, we can condense these measures into four broad categories that account for the bulk of the variations: food, energy, transportation, and shelter. We show this composition below:
1. While over 300 line items drive CPI that we have visibility into, we can condense these measures into four broad categories that account for the bulk of the variations: food, energy, transportation, and shelter. We show this composition below:
2. Both economically and statistically, these categories explain about 85% of the monthly variation in CPI. Therefore, we think it makes sense to approach our dissection of CPI by evaluating these areas.
3. We believe that food & energy prices can continue to contribute to a softening in CPI, but the swing factor will likely be transportation inflation. So far this cycle, transportation has been a net support to the disinflation we expected over the year.
We’ve seen the pace of #payroll gains decelerate to roughly the monthly trend pace from the last expansion; consensus has been waiting for this moment and expected a 195,000 job gain in May, but the data printed considerably stronger at 339,000 #jobs gained.
The three-month moving average of #nonfarm payrolls sits at 283,000, down from 334,000 jobs at the start of the year, but what the #LaborMarket imbalance needs is more supply and more slack.
The #unemployment rate ticked up to 3.65%, close to its 12-month average level, and average hourly #earnings (a volatile figure) gained 0.33% month-over-month and 4.3% on a year-over-year basis.
Today's Twitter threads (a Twitter thread).
Inside: To save the news, ban surveillance ads; and more!
Archived at: pluralistic.net/2023/05/31/con…
#Pluralistic
1/
Inside: To save the news, ban surveillance ads; and more!
Archived at: pluralistic.net/2023/05/31/con…
#Pluralistic
1/
Tonight (31/5, 1830h) I'm at #Manchester @WaterstonesMCR with *Red Team Blues*, hosted by @cubicgarden:
waterstones.com/events/in-conv…
On 1/6, it's #London for @uclcs's #PeterKirstein Lecture:
eventbrite.co.uk/e/peter-kirste…
Next: #Edinburgh, #London & #Berlin!
redteamblues.com
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waterstones.com/events/in-conv…
On 1/6, it's #London for @uclcs's #PeterKirstein Lecture:
eventbrite.co.uk/e/peter-kirste…
Next: #Edinburgh, #London & #Berlin!
redteamblues.com
2/
To save the news, ban surveillance ads: No publisher will ever beat ad-tech at spying, but no tech company will ever understand a publisher's content better than they do.
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🤔Questions d'actualité pour le nouveau mandat d'#Erdogan
L'#inflation est aujourd'hui le principal problème économique de la #Turquie - car les politiques adoptées par Erdogan ces dernières années y ont contribué de manière décisive.
#ErdoganVictory @YvesPDB @BugaultV
L'#inflation est aujourd'hui le principal problème économique de la #Turquie - car les politiques adoptées par Erdogan ces dernières années y ont contribué de manière décisive.
#ErdoganVictory @YvesPDB @BugaultV
L'inflation sape le pouvoir d'achat de la classe moyenne et, selon les chiffres officiels, elle s'élevait à 44 % le mois dernier. Toutefois, des économistes indépendants estiment que l'inflation réelle est d'environ 115 %.
Reconstruction des zones touchées par le tremblement de terre. Quatre mois plus tard, des milliers de personnes vivent encore sous des tentes et ont besoin d'une aide humanitaire. Le coût de la reconstruction est estimé à environ 100 milliards de dollars.
A friend sent me a video that is apparently making the rounds. It's titled "#Modi the Boss," and features various world leaders praising Modi's popularity and greeting him.
Modi's #Bhakts are clearly in orgasmic bliss with this, and opponents say it's pure propaganda.
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Modi's #Bhakts are clearly in orgasmic bliss with this, and opponents say it's pure propaganda.
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But there's more to this than meets the eye.
1. It's a fact that Modi's popularity fills world leaders with awe. They would give an arm and a leg to be as popular in their countries as Modi is in India. He can screw up worse than anyone can imagine and still be popular.
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1. It's a fact that Modi's popularity fills world leaders with awe. They would give an arm and a leg to be as popular in their countries as Modi is in India. He can screw up worse than anyone can imagine and still be popular.
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2. In contrast, leaders of most world democracies have to worry about the #economy, #jobs, #Unemployment, #prices, #inflation, #recession, etc. If anything goes wrong with these, they might lose the next #election.
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