Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #uncertainty
Most recents (24)
NEW EXCLUSIVE from me:
#Distort, #discredit, #dismiss - 6 additional tactics of media manipulators and why they work to sabotage public discourse
Read:
protagonistfuture.substack.com/p/distort-disc…
Details follow:
1/
#Distort, #discredit, #dismiss - 6 additional tactics of media manipulators and why they work to sabotage public discourse
Read:
protagonistfuture.substack.com/p/distort-disc…
Details follow:
1/
Anti-science activism never went away, it got a new ugly face in the #information age:
Quacks, gurus, contrarian doctors, fake experts, influencers, political commentators and similar media manipulators.
Previously we looked at "merchants of #doubt"
2/
Quacks, gurus, contrarian doctors, fake experts, influencers, political commentators and similar media manipulators.
Previously we looked at "merchants of #doubt"
2/
Today, we take a look at the "merchants of #ambiguity"
Their overarching goal is to create the perception that scientific issues are either eternally #unresolved or that #alternative interpretations are just as plausible or likely.
3/
Their overarching goal is to create the perception that scientific issues are either eternally #unresolved or that #alternative interpretations are just as plausible or likely.
3/
1/ 🌌🧬 Delving deeper into the realms of AI, consciousness, and the cosmos, we'll explore emerging technologies, theories, and insights shaping the future of our understanding. Get ready for the next chapter in this exhilarating adventure! #AI #Consciousness #Cosmology
2/ 🔮📡 As technology advances, we're witnessing the rise of quantum computing, neuroprosthetics, and brain-computer interfaces, expanding the horizons of AI and consciousness research. #QuantumComputing #Neuroprosthetics #BrainComputerInterfaces
3/ 🧠💡 Cognitive science and neuroscience have made strides in understanding the mind's inner workings, contributing to our grasp on consciousness and its connection to AI. #CognitiveScience #Neuroscience #Mind
A week ago, after hearing #ChairPowell’s testimony before Congress, all eyes were set to be on today’s #inflation data, which presumably would help market participants better understand the #FOMC’s policy reaction at its March 22nd meeting.
What a difference a week makes these days! Of course, all eyes are still on today’s data, but now there are many other things we need to consider (such as #FinancialStability concerns), when judging the reaction function of the @federalreserve.
As we have long contended, #markets tend to be fairly myopic and lacking in patience, so having to focus on more than one news item at a time causes tremendous #uncertainty and thus greater market #volatility.
A thread 🧵 on P/E ratio
P/E ratio is a financial metric that compares a company's stock price to its earnings per share. It's used to evaluate the relative value of a stock and assess its potential for growth.
A P/E ratio of 15, for example, means that the stock's price is 15 times its earnings per share. A higher P/E ratio indicates that investors are paying more for each rupee of earnings.
As part of the @ILCOR_org Pediatric life support taskforce we reviewed evidence for accuracy of tests for predicting GOOD neurological outcome following #Cardiacarrest in children
🧵of key DRAFT recommendations.
🔗costr.ilcor.org/document/clini…
#Pedsicu #NeuroPICU
🧵of key DRAFT recommendations.
🔗costr.ilcor.org/document/clini…
#Pedsicu #NeuroPICU
#Prediction of good neurological outcome is a key role for #PedsICU clinicians in #postarrestcare phase of #chainofsurvival.
Improving prognostic #uncertainty may help clinicians choose treatments, counsel families, and answer accurately, "Will my child be OK?“
#NeuroPICU
Improving prognostic #uncertainty may help clinicians choose treatments, counsel families, and answer accurately, "Will my child be OK?“
#NeuroPICU
The #PLS taskforce conducted a #systematicreview of literature reporting prognostic tests used in children after cardiac arrest.
Four types of tests were evaluated:
*Clinical examination
*Blood biomarkers
*Electrophysiology
*Brain Imaging
#PedsICU #NeuroPICU #CPR
Four types of tests were evaluated:
*Clinical examination
*Blood biomarkers
*Electrophysiology
*Brain Imaging
#PedsICU #NeuroPICU #CPR
My textbook with Kosuke Imai (@Harvard) is finally out!
Assuming no prior knowledge of statistics or coding and only minimal knowledge of math, DSS teaches the fundamentals of survey research, predictive models, and causal inference + how to analyze real-world data with R.
🧵..
Assuming no prior knowledge of statistics or coding and only minimal knowledge of math, DSS teaches the fundamentals of survey research, predictive models, and causal inference + how to analyze real-world data with R.
🧵..
1/n: DSS is meant for complete beginners, regardless of whether they are in high school, in graduate school, or out of school altogether. #rstats #surveys #prediction #causality
Want to see for yourself? The first chapter is free here: bit.ly/dss_preview
Book outline:
Want to see for yourself? The first chapter is free here: bit.ly/dss_preview
Book outline:
2/n: We wrote DSS so that anyone could learn the skills we teach by following along with the exercises in the book on their own computer, without the help of an instructor. (Everything needed is either in the book or on the book's website.) #rstats #surveys #prediction #causality
The Prophetic Antidote to Despair
Rasulullah Sallallahu Alayhi Wasallam said, “When one of you calls upon Allah, let him hope for the greatest of things. Verily, nothing has any greatness over Allah.” [Ṣaḥīḥ Ibn Ḥibbān 896].
Rasulullah Sallallahu Alayhi Wasallam said, “When one of you calls upon Allah, let him hope for the greatest of things. Verily, nothing has any greatness over Allah.” [Ṣaḥīḥ Ibn Ḥibbān 896].
Everything in our lives that the Almighty decides for us is perfect and balanced. The wisdom behind why we are tested with hardship is known by Allah alone.
We should never lose hope because of the trials and tribulations we face nor should we ever stop returning to Him asking for ease and mercy even if over and over again.
#THREAD
Want to know a secret that far-right politicians & right-wing newspaper editors have ruthlessly exploited for at least a century? Traditional ideologies, usually embodied by mainstream parties, are anchored in emotionality as much as ideology or what we call 'populism'.
Want to know a secret that far-right politicians & right-wing newspaper editors have ruthlessly exploited for at least a century? Traditional ideologies, usually embodied by mainstream parties, are anchored in emotionality as much as ideology or what we call 'populism'.
Conservative thinking is often a response to a need to reduce #fear & #uncertainty (Jost, Kruglanski, Glaser & Sulloway 2003). Experimental evidence shows that priming 'mortality threats' results in post-manipulation conservative identification (Thorisdottir & Jost 2010). 🇬🇧
Liberals, on the other hand, are less concerned with fear, & rather characterized by a higher propensity for #empathy (Hsu, Anen, & Quartz 2008; Taber & Young 2013). This emotion emerges as a distinctive trait of liberal ideology in a number of studies, highlighting (Smith 2006).
AI effectively automates the mundane and routine but not the exception, especially the exceptional exception. Latter requires the Consciousness of human beings.
today's AI is exactly like Rahul Gandhi. It appears to do a lot of things, makes opaque overseas trips, gets plenty of press, and is always the future choice that is ready to take over.
good AI would practically sell itself sans human hype.
Latest UPDATE on the #TFR (Travel Rule) trilogue:
EU institutions are working to finalise the #TFR text to implement the #travelrule in Europe. Please find below the latest details. The aimed-for deadline for conclusion is still the first week of June.
1/9
EU institutions are working to finalise the #TFR text to implement the #travelrule in Europe. Please find below the latest details. The aimed-for deadline for conclusion is still the first week of June.
1/9
Key issues on table:
The provisions introduced by the @Europarl_EN requiring #verification of information for each transfer of assets, the additional requirements applied to transfers to #unhosted wallets and the #blacklist of non-compliant entities.
2/9
The provisions introduced by the @Europarl_EN requiring #verification of information for each transfer of assets, the additional requirements applied to transfers to #unhosted wallets and the #blacklist of non-compliant entities.
2/9
In the past weeks, the @EUCouncil has taken onboard the concerns from the blockchain & crypto #industry, as well as those of regulators and competent #authorities (!), that flagged the impracticality and unintended consequences these provisions would have.
3/9
3/9
"Like all of us, love is a complex beast: only by embracing it in its entirety do we truly understand it, and ourselves. And this means understanding its evolutionary story, the good and the bad." -- Anna Machin greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2022/05/03/dai…
A viral database is helping desperate Kenyans find fuel - Rest of World
restofworld.org/2022/a-viral-d…
#KenyanStartup, #FuelSupplies, #FuelPrices, #CrowdsourcingData, #OpenSourceDatabase, #IkoWhere
restofworld.org/2022/a-viral-d…
#KenyanStartup, #FuelSupplies, #FuelPrices, #CrowdsourcingData, #OpenSourceDatabase, #IkoWhere
The Great Resignation is becoming a “great midlife crisis” - Vox
vox.com/recode/2304278…
#GreatResignation, #MidlifeCrisis, #EarlyRetirement, #GreatReshuffle, #recession, #inflation
vox.com/recode/2304278…
#GreatResignation, #MidlifeCrisis, #EarlyRetirement, #GreatReshuffle, #recession, #inflation
🌍 Our 2022 #Science Board Symposium on "The #Emergent #PoliticalEconomy or #ClimateChange" kicks off with opening remarks from President David Krakauer.
Follow this 🧵 as we provide live coverage of this event all day...
Follow this 🧵 as we provide live coverage of this event all day...
"For those of you who think behavior change can prevent #ClimateChange...behavior WILL change when climate changes. Shutdowns from the pandemic resulted in a reduction of #C02 emissions of about 7.5%."
- SFI/@Harvard Prof Dan Schrag opens our speaker series today
- SFI/@Harvard Prof Dan Schrag opens our speaker series today
"We *used* to talk about #ClimateChange used to be something that would happen to people in Bangladesh fifty years from now."
Re: #ClimateJustice,
"Children born today are going to deal with climate change they had no role in causing."
- SFI/@Harvard Prof Dan Schrag
Re: #ClimateJustice,
"Children born today are going to deal with climate change they had no role in causing."
- SFI/@Harvard Prof Dan Schrag
@euphoniYum @spriter99880 1/3. There is a #Power called "#Evolution" and the #Survival of the best "#Fit".
To #Unite many #Different views into 1 and giving up one's OWN desires for that of the GROUP, Homo Sapiens Sapiens developed #DNA-caused "#Group #Thinking", to change from #Many views to #ONE.
>>
To #Unite many #Different views into 1 and giving up one's OWN desires for that of the GROUP, Homo Sapiens Sapiens developed #DNA-caused "#Group #Thinking", to change from #Many views to #ONE.
>>
@euphoniYum @spriter99880 2/3. >>But these #Genetics are #Predictable and can be #Manipulated by the #Few.
Mass-Psychologists, in #Think #Tanks of the ruling class in the West, Oligarchs, developed "#NLP" or "#Neuro-#Linguistic #Programming", known as "Marketing", Brain Washing and yes... Propaganda.
>>
Mass-Psychologists, in #Think #Tanks of the ruling class in the West, Oligarchs, developed "#NLP" or "#Neuro-#Linguistic #Programming", known as "Marketing", Brain Washing and yes... Propaganda.
>>
@euphoniYum @spriter99880 3/3. >>Key is the presence of "#Fear", "#Uncertainty" & "#Chaos".
An article about this Geopolitical tool used by the #Empire from #SouthFront, blocked by Twitter.
The URL is in the top of the page. That will work.
scroll👇1st page
SouthFront👉archive.ph/w3sL2👈via Archive
An article about this Geopolitical tool used by the #Empire from #SouthFront, blocked by Twitter.
The URL is in the top of the page. That will work.
scroll👇1st page
SouthFront👉archive.ph/w3sL2👈via Archive
1/n 🧵 ICYMI "Scaling of Hunter-Gatherer Camp Size and Human Sociality"
New paper (@UChicagoPress) led by José Lobo (@ASU) & co-authored by a team incl. SFI's @BettencourtLuis (@miurbanchicago) & Scott Ortman (@CUBoulder), result of an SFI working group:
journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/71…
New paper (@UChicagoPress) led by José Lobo (@ASU) & co-authored by a team incl. SFI's @BettencourtLuis (@miurbanchicago) & Scott Ortman (@CUBoulder), result of an SFI working group:
journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/71…
2/n
This new research deploys #ScalingLaw insights to understand the population-density driven transition from temporary hunter-gatherer settlements to permanent sedentary city life.
This new research deploys #ScalingLaw insights to understand the population-density driven transition from temporary hunter-gatherer settlements to permanent sedentary city life.
3/n
Previous research on the impact of densification on the transition into city life has yielded conflicting results, some suggesting that hunter-gatherer groups actually thin out as they scale. (In what ways might this reflect transitions in the scaling of microbial organisms?)
Previous research on the impact of densification on the transition into city life has yielded conflicting results, some suggesting that hunter-gatherer groups actually thin out as they scale. (In what ways might this reflect transitions in the scaling of microbial organisms?)
Some people believe, #leadership is something that comes later on an #agile #journey. They start with teams first. But this is fundamentally wrong. Leadership should always come first. And, more important, this is not at all limited to you line management!
Because: #leadership is a capability of your organization. Yes, you can measure leadership on and around every single team. You will see or miss it across your teams of line managers.
When your organization is capable of thriving in #uncertainty, there will be leadership at play. And when your organization consciously approaches its culture, it will only work through leadership of the system.
Bitcoin: A Natural Transistor for Computing Universal Value
TE^(X-ME)=-IE
Given #bitcoin's terminal monetary #entropy (ME) is zero and the network rate of adaptation (x) is greater than zero:
TE^(X-ME)=-IE
Given #bitcoin's terminal monetary #entropy (ME) is zero and the network rate of adaptation (x) is greater than zero:
The Bitcoin network is a lossless dynamic #flow algorithm for computing infinitely reduced informational #uncertainty (-IE). Bitcoin is capable of switching and drawing infinite power into cryptographic signs through the power inequality created by its terminal locality of 0,0.
This infinite gain function generates a systemic power inequality, whereby the reduced informational uncertainty demands increased power flow through the network. This is a positive feedback function in action.
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 01/20/2022 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2022/01/20/dai…
The Green Lantern Theory of the Presidency, explained - Vox
vox.com/2014/5/20/5732…
#PresidentialAuthority, #GreenLanternTheory, #LimitsOfPower
vox.com/2014/5/20/5732…
#PresidentialAuthority, #GreenLanternTheory, #LimitsOfPower
Most Reckless Fed Ever: “Real” Federal Funds Rate Now the Most Negative Ever | Wolf Street
wolfstreet.com/2022/01/12/mos…
#FederalFundsRate, #NegativeYield, #CPIInflation
wolfstreet.com/2022/01/12/mos…
#FederalFundsRate, #NegativeYield, #CPIInflation
#Italy can cut its #CO2 emissions by up to 97% and this can lead to *lower* #energy prices.
Hard to believe? Check out our new paper in #RSER: authors.elsevier.com/a/1dyo14s9Hw2F…
⚡️HIGHLIGHTS BELOW👇
#COP26 #ClimateCrisis #energytwitter
@ImperialBiz @EnergyFuturesIC @CogImperial
Hard to believe? Check out our new paper in #RSER: authors.elsevier.com/a/1dyo14s9Hw2F…
⚡️HIGHLIGHTS BELOW👇
#COP26 #ClimateCrisis #energytwitter
@ImperialBiz @EnergyFuturesIC @CogImperial
#EnergyScope is an #optimization model looking at the whole-energy system, including #electricity, #heating and #transport.
We present a new version of the model and propose it to devise deep #decarbonization scenarios for #Italy, like this one!
#ORMS #DataScience
We present a new version of the model and propose it to devise deep #decarbonization scenarios for #Italy, like this one!
#ORMS #DataScience
How does a 97% decarbonized Italy look like?
[left] #renewableenergy share in primary energy supply increases from 16% in 2015 to 83% in 2050.
[right] sector-coupling: increased #electricity penetration in #heating, #transportation and #hydrogen production.
[left] #renewableenergy share in primary energy supply increases from 16% in 2015 to 83% in 2050.
[right] sector-coupling: increased #electricity penetration in #heating, #transportation and #hydrogen production.
What entropy is not: The very definition of entropy is inconsistent with a #deterministic #world view. This entails difficulties in understanding entropy because our education is based on the deterministic paradigm. Read more: mdpi.com/1099-4300/23/1…
What entropy is: According to its standard definition, entropy is precisely the expected value of the minus logarithm of probability #Physics #Math Read more: mdpi.com/1099-4300/23/1…
What entropy is: If this sounds too difficult to interpret, an easy and accurate interpretation is that entropy is a measure of #uncertainty
#Physics #Math Read more: mdpi.com/1099-4300/23/1… #UncertaintyExperts
#Physics #Math Read more: mdpi.com/1099-4300/23/1… #UncertaintyExperts
The #Protocol on IRL/NI was agreed 2 years ago, with a key objective of avoiding a hard @BorderIrish
But what has #Brexit been like for people living along the #border?
We @QUBSSESW @europe_icban @UKandEU investigated…
And our report is out today!
tinyurl.com/AfterBrexit
1/10
But what has #Brexit been like for people living along the #border?
We @QUBSSESW @europe_icban @UKandEU investigated…
And our report is out today!
tinyurl.com/AfterBrexit
1/10
This is our 4th QUB/ICBAN report since the 2016 referendum.
The study involved an online #survey of those living/working in the Central Border Region.
Our survey received c400 responses, equally spread either side of the border. There were also interviews & focus groups.
2/10
The study involved an online #survey of those living/working in the Central Border Region.
Our survey received c400 responses, equally spread either side of the border. There were also interviews & focus groups.
2/10
We are VERY grateful to each of the respondents to this survey.
It took a time to complete because we insisted on getting comments/views/examples…
And hence the report is another fairly hefty one, as the #Contents show.
The focus is on giving space/voice to respondents.
3/10
It took a time to complete because we insisted on getting comments/views/examples…
And hence the report is another fairly hefty one, as the #Contents show.
The focus is on giving space/voice to respondents.
3/10
#CEBHCtwitchat Day 1 - 1/7:
The 26% question: How has social media shaped the uptake of #COVID19 #vaccines in SA?
How to engage.
1.See tweet.
2.Like, RT or reply using #CEBHCtwitchat & #WorldEBHCDay
3.Tag others to join in
4.Sip coffee and lean back proudly.
The 26% question: How has social media shaped the uptake of #COVID19 #vaccines in SA?
How to engage.
1.See tweet.
2.Like, RT or reply using #CEBHCtwitchat & #WorldEBHCDay
3.Tag others to join in
4.Sip coffee and lean back proudly.
Join in the #CEBHCtwitchat starting now
@MikeMcCaul3 @Research_Ambit @NasreenJessani
@ziwelight @Harambee4Work @miamalan @Bhekisisa_MG @hmahomed799 @Faraiann
@YHA_Africa @yaseentheba @MuslimAssocSA
@AmandaAniB @AnelSchoonees @TarynYoung3
@StellenboschUni @AnkeRohwer @markskeptic
@MikeMcCaul3 @Research_Ambit @NasreenJessani
@ziwelight @Harambee4Work @miamalan @Bhekisisa_MG @hmahomed799 @Faraiann
@YHA_Africa @yaseentheba @MuslimAssocSA
@AmandaAniB @AnelSchoonees @TarynYoung3
@StellenboschUni @AnkeRohwer @markskeptic
#CEBHCtwitchat Day 1 - 2/7:
Why are we hovering at only 26% of South Africans being #vaccinated against #COVID19? What is your opinion? #haveyoursay #WorldEBHCDay
#EvidenceFirst
Why are we hovering at only 26% of South Africans being #vaccinated against #COVID19? What is your opinion? #haveyoursay #WorldEBHCDay
#EvidenceFirst
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 10/15/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/10/15/dai…
Survive in Extremistan.
lopezoliverx.medium.com/survive-in-ext…
#LongTail #risk #uncertainty #complexity #ExtremeEnvironments #antifragility #NationalSecurity #PandemicResponse
lopezoliverx.medium.com/survive-in-ext…
#LongTail #risk #uncertainty #complexity #ExtremeEnvironments #antifragility #NationalSecurity #PandemicResponse
Behind SmartNews, the $2 billion unicorn trying to fix the news algorithm
restofworld.org/2021/behind-sm…
#unicorn #AppDevelopment #NewsAggregation #algorithms #balance
restofworld.org/2021/behind-sm…
#unicorn #AppDevelopment #NewsAggregation #algorithms #balance
1/6 Dear Colleagues from Computer Science, HCI & Artificial Intelligence, let me present a preprint with my colleague @shihonghuang . "Emotionally-Informed Decisions: Bringing Gut's Feelings into Self-adaptive and Co-adaptive Software Systems" at arxiv.org/abs/2110.01503 #emotions
2/6 My software engineer colleague @shihonghuang and I reflected on the enormous parallelisms between the cognitive aids that are software systems and human cognition, in particular decision-making and emotion. It led us to conceptualize a software system with gut's feeling.
3/6 In a section aimed at Computer Scientists, we reviewed the neurobiological and behavioral basis of #DecisionMaking. We examined factors that affect it, in particular uncertainty, risk, time and emotion.
Important court ruling with wide-ranging implications for the future #Chineseculture #workersrights @NewsHour @NPR
@WSJ @BBCBreaking @AP
@WSJ @BBCBreaking @AP
Also: @washingtonweek tonight
#WashWeekPBS 8/7c @PBS
@JaneFerguson5 discussing the situation in #afghanistan
#WashWeekPBS 8/7c @PBS
@JaneFerguson5 discussing the situation in #afghanistan
Beyond immediate inflationary pressure and quarterly corporate profits abroad, the counterintuitive shift strengthens producers leverage in the supply-chain as well as creating potential trade/socio-economic instability #uncertainty #Fed #business #dollarindex
