Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #investing101
Most recents (8)
This simple play book is all one has to remember and execute on, get in alignment for each cycle....multiple bottoms incoming. Focus and control ones emotions, understanding reversion to mean whether down 95% (>8x return if < 0.5x 2026 CF) or 97.5% (>16x if <0.25)
#investing101
#investing101
Finding despondent sellers is easy....
#uranium sector as many have taken 60% bath from 2021 highs, 10-30% further downside possible
#crypto bros in Dec 2022
#REIT's where dividends go to zero and are in refinancing stress
#regionalbanks when under intense bank run news flow
#uranium sector as many have taken 60% bath from 2021 highs, 10-30% further downside possible
#crypto bros in Dec 2022
#REIT's where dividends go to zero and are in refinancing stress
#regionalbanks when under intense bank run news flow
#homebuilders when selling prices move to negative gross margins to move stock
#autodealers with negative gross margins
#Pakistan on political and economic uncertainty
#Poland on war uncertainty
#Brazil on economic uncertainty
#autodealers with negative gross margins
#Pakistan on political and economic uncertainty
#Poland on war uncertainty
#Brazil on economic uncertainty
Where is the alignment of interest? Avoid the asset collectors, focus in on the performance collectors.
Watch out for the specialists who want their 5 minutes of fame to extend for 40 minutes.
Follow the multi cycle generalists who have seen it all, they are not anchored in peak cycles whereas specialists are.
#tech
#uranium
#cyclicals
#coal
#lithium
Follow the multi cycle generalists who have seen it all, they are not anchored in peak cycles whereas specialists are.
#tech
#uranium
#cyclicals
#coal
#lithium
What specialists never say?
It's time to sell as valuations are above to collapse by 75%
What seasoned generalists, always do?
Scaled out prior to the peak and have moved on to fresh asymmetric themes.
Who should you be following....who has your back ...
#investing101
It's time to sell as valuations are above to collapse by 75%
What seasoned generalists, always do?
Scaled out prior to the peak and have moved on to fresh asymmetric themes.
Who should you be following....who has your back ...
#investing101
The typical #Commodity or #goldstock graph that tends to interest us if backed up with fundamentals, we would expect 1H 2023 this could bottom at 2c down 50% from current levels (-95%+ from cycle peak), offering 20x returns over the following 48 months. 
For fundamentals we would like to see 4-7c of potential annual cashflow 3 years out to back our 20x return.
This is how to create wealth, deployment of capital near a cycle bottom can grow by 10-20x over the following 48 months.
Get in step and alignment with the upcoming cycle bottom - this is the best guidance we can give any investor
#wealthcreation
#investing101
#cyclebottoms
Get in step and alignment with the upcoming cycle bottom - this is the best guidance we can give any investor
#wealthcreation
#investing101
#cyclebottoms
#commodities #uranium
To get in alignment with the incoming bottom, likely 1H 2023 (the pivot on monetary tightening and peak USD), several spots will decline by 30% & high beta related equities by up to 60%. Be prudent in ones scale in, we are using future return as a guide.
To get in alignment with the incoming bottom, likely 1H 2023 (the pivot on monetary tightening and peak USD), several spots will decline by 30% & high beta related equities by up to 60%. Be prudent in ones scale in, we are using future return as a guide.
History indicates 90-95% stock decliners within #commodity sectors often offer interesting recovery returns of 15-20x (all being even), expect this to play out in many cases through 1H 2023.
Where are our bids?
A) where we can obverse Cap/CF <0.5x 3 yrs out
B) Cap < 5% of NPVs
Where are our bids?
A) where we can obverse Cap/CF <0.5x 3 yrs out
B) Cap < 5% of NPVs
How to use future returns as a scale in guide?
For us we are looking for 8x plus returns over 48 months, so to achieve this an ideal buy in is <5% of NPV and/or <0.5x Cap/CF 3yrs out
These often present themselves near cycle bottoms....
#commodities
#cyclicals
#investing101
For us we are looking for 8x plus returns over 48 months, so to achieve this an ideal buy in is <5% of NPV and/or <0.5x Cap/CF 3yrs out
These often present themselves near cycle bottoms....
#commodities
#cyclicals
#investing101
For our followers, if you haven't yet seen how easy it is to make returns in the market (over the medium term), then it's very simple, at times of "apocalyptically bearish" conditions it's generally an entry point....whereas at times of "excess FOMO" its generally an exit point.
Where are we now? No man's land, which means most entry points are average, not compelling Vs June, with the depths of recession still an unknown, we are leaning on taking capital off the table, hence adding to dry powder.
Controlling your own greed and fear are the tools to make the right decisions.
Underpaying, early cycle leads to high returns
Overpaying, late cycle leads to losses
Awaiting for clarification leads to mediocrity
Early cycle vision leads to superior results
#investing101
Underpaying, early cycle leads to high returns
Overpaying, late cycle leads to losses
Awaiting for clarification leads to mediocrity
Early cycle vision leads to superior results
#investing101
Investing at cycle lows proves it's weight in gold....
Characteristics of cycle lows:
a) 90-95% declines from 2 year peaks
b) very attractive low valuations 2 years out, post moving beyond the eye of the storm
c) extremely negative sentiment with much fear
The easy entry points to secure great forward returns.
#investing101
a) 90-95% declines from 2 year peaks
b) very attractive low valuations 2 years out, post moving beyond the eye of the storm
c) extremely negative sentiment with much fear
The easy entry points to secure great forward returns.
#investing101
Investing Behaviour that will truly generate sub standard returns over the medium :
A) FOMO resulting in 4th quartile cycle purchases
B) No understanding of cycle positioning
C) Entry without Exit pricing
D) Moving with the herd, instead of being infront of the herd
A) FOMO resulting in 4th quartile cycle purchases
B) No understanding of cycle positioning
C) Entry without Exit pricing
D) Moving with the herd, instead of being infront of the herd
Thread on OI analysis: Call = resistance, Put = support 1/n #tradingtips #banknifty #Nifty #nifty50 #StocksToWatch #fintwit #OptionsTrading #StocksToWatch #investing101 #fintwit
Highest call OI and highest put OI are key levels both sides #nifty50 #NIFTYFUTURE #Nifty #daytrading #Sensex #NSE #tradingtips #banknifty #StockMarket #StocksToWatch #investing #NSE #stocks #StocksToBuy #forex
Look at change in OI, including highest change in OI both sides to see where new support/ resistance levels are being formed #nifty50 #NIFTYFUTURE #Nifty #daytrading #Sensex #NSE #tradingtips #banknifty #StockMarket #StocksToWatch #investing #NSE #stocks #StocksToBuy #forex
