Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #regionalbanks
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Thought of the day: A reminder for our followers, each new asymmetric theme should be restricted to a 5-7% portfolio weighting with around 5 stocks positions to mitigate stock specific risks in each theme. Incoming themes over the next 6 months: #regionalbanks #REITs etc
Rules of engagement for #regionalbanks & #REITs
- we are approaching entry into the eye of the storm, this will likely need to play out 75% prior to serious capital deployment (6 months +).
- shoes to drop include freezing lending markets, deposits moving to higher yields etc
- we are approaching entry into the eye of the storm, this will likely need to play out 75% prior to serious capital deployment (6 months +).
- shoes to drop include freezing lending markets, deposits moving to higher yields etc
Let some bottoming clarity take place...as in the short term, what was strong yesterday, may not be tomorrow, the rate of change can be swift until the environment settles.
Fresh asymmetric theme incoming no rush to deploy, do the work on survivability and low end valuation entry <0.2x book #regionalbanks
2 on this list will do over 10x returns from their incoming cycle bottoms.
When looking for compelling cycle bottom in #regionalbanks 2009 indicates a peak to bottom of -70%, that would imply <$19 $IAT entry. 
This simple play book is all one has to remember and execute on, get in alignment for each cycle....multiple bottoms incoming. Focus and control ones emotions, understanding reversion to mean whether down 95% (>8x return if < 0.5x 2026 CF) or 97.5% (>16x if <0.25)
#investing101
#investing101
Finding despondent sellers is easy....
#uranium sector as many have taken 60% bath from 2021 highs, 10-30% further downside possible
#crypto bros in Dec 2022
#REIT's where dividends go to zero and are in refinancing stress
#regionalbanks when under intense bank run news flow
#uranium sector as many have taken 60% bath from 2021 highs, 10-30% further downside possible
#crypto bros in Dec 2022
#REIT's where dividends go to zero and are in refinancing stress
#regionalbanks when under intense bank run news flow
#homebuilders when selling prices move to negative gross margins to move stock
#autodealers with negative gross margins
#Pakistan on political and economic uncertainty
#Poland on war uncertainty
#Brazil on economic uncertainty
#autodealers with negative gross margins
#Pakistan on political and economic uncertainty
#Poland on war uncertainty
#Brazil on economic uncertainty
Thought of the day: Investor Survivability & Opportunity Kit for 2023:
- ensure you have 30%+ cash weighting for deployment into fresh asymmetric themes
- ensure you have exited ponzi tech and other rubbish which will implode within the next 12 months
- ensure 9 months cost cover
- ensure you have 30%+ cash weighting for deployment into fresh asymmetric themes
- ensure you have exited ponzi tech and other rubbish which will implode within the next 12 months
- ensure 9 months cost cover
Last night at lows at a few #regionalbanks approached 0.2x book coupled with survivability features = new asymmetric theme
We expect the fear environment to worsen as the recession hits over the next 9 months, hence one must have coverage of all possible outcomes.
- personal cashflow coverage (9 months of reserves)
- 30% cash stack for opportunistic fresh asymmetric themes deployment
- personal cashflow coverage (9 months of reserves)
- 30% cash stack for opportunistic fresh asymmetric themes deployment
