Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #cyclicals
Most recents (10)
#ES close almost 4,149 resistance, $RSP $IWM improvements are key bullish achievements, but I doubt would be confirmed by rising #bonds.
Bit of a daily rotation into #cyclicals say that would be hard.
Key today - #retailsales
Quote from Sunday:
THREAD 👇
Bit of a daily rotation into #cyclicals say that would be hard.
Key today - #retailsales
Quote from Sunday:
THREAD 👇
2. "I'm ooking for a meaningful undershoot on Tuesday, especially in core #retailsales turning even slightly negative".
Look at China's uneven recovery (18% vs 21% expected retail sales YoY), and compare then to situations when fiscal and monetary policy work in opposite ways.
Look at China's uneven recovery (18% vs 21% expected retail sales YoY), and compare then to situations when fiscal and monetary policy work in opposite ways.
3. Looking at the relative $XLY direction, I'm afraid #discretionaries are starting to lose their leading shine.
It's rather $XLC $XLV $XLU that are either leading or improving while $XLK deteriorates under the surface (also in terms of #NDX market breadth) just like $XLY.
It's rather $XLC $XLV $XLU that are either leading or improving while $XLK deteriorates under the surface (also in terms of #NDX market breadth) just like $XLY.
Where is the alignment of interest? Avoid the asset collectors, focus in on the performance collectors.
Watch out for the specialists who want their 5 minutes of fame to extend for 40 minutes.
Follow the multi cycle generalists who have seen it all, they are not anchored in peak cycles whereas specialists are.
#tech
#uranium
#cyclicals
#coal
#lithium
Follow the multi cycle generalists who have seen it all, they are not anchored in peak cycles whereas specialists are.
#tech
#uranium
#cyclicals
#coal
#lithium
What specialists never say?
It's time to sell as valuations are above to collapse by 75%
What seasoned generalists, always do?
Scaled out prior to the peak and have moved on to fresh asymmetric themes.
Who should you be following....who has your back ...
#investing101
It's time to sell as valuations are above to collapse by 75%
What seasoned generalists, always do?
Scaled out prior to the peak and have moved on to fresh asymmetric themes.
Who should you be following....who has your back ...
#investing101
#cyclicals we have sent 35 years refining our technique, buy when on low price to book ranges, with low spot price near cost curve outcomes.
Spent 35yrs ...
Sell when on high price to book ranges and 60-80% cash margins above cost curves.
Hence #lithium and #coal peaks were easy....
Remember the rule, there is no rarity at 80% margins.
#cyclicalinvesting101
Hence #lithium and #coal peaks were easy....
Remember the rule, there is no rarity at 80% margins.
#cyclicalinvesting101
Thought of the day: Return compounding is all about timeframes in #cyclicals, 10x over 5 years reinvested in 10x over 5 years reinvested in 10x over 5 years with 1-2 year waiting between reinvestment = 1000x over 17-19 years. Are you formulating your compounding plan?
Our working example:
$BTU from $1.21 = 13x < 30 months
deployed into:
$IREN from $1.32 = expect 10x over 48 months
deployed into:
Unknown at this time = 8x
Total return = >1000x
$BTU from $1.21 = 13x < 30 months
deployed into:
$IREN from $1.32 = expect 10x over 48 months
deployed into:
Unknown at this time = 8x
Total return = >1000x
Documented is previous tweets
#commodities #uranium
To get in alignment with the incoming bottom, likely 1H 2023 (the pivot on monetary tightening and peak USD), several spots will decline by 30% & high beta related equities by up to 60%. Be prudent in ones scale in, we are using future return as a guide.
To get in alignment with the incoming bottom, likely 1H 2023 (the pivot on monetary tightening and peak USD), several spots will decline by 30% & high beta related equities by up to 60%. Be prudent in ones scale in, we are using future return as a guide.
History indicates 90-95% stock decliners within #commodity sectors often offer interesting recovery returns of 15-20x (all being even), expect this to play out in many cases through 1H 2023.
Where are our bids?
A) where we can obverse Cap/CF <0.5x 3 yrs out
B) Cap < 5% of NPVs
Where are our bids?
A) where we can obverse Cap/CF <0.5x 3 yrs out
B) Cap < 5% of NPVs
How to use future returns as a scale in guide?
For us we are looking for 8x plus returns over 48 months, so to achieve this an ideal buy in is <5% of NPV and/or <0.5x Cap/CF 3yrs out
These often present themselves near cycle bottoms....
#commodities
#cyclicals
#investing101
For us we are looking for 8x plus returns over 48 months, so to achieve this an ideal buy in is <5% of NPV and/or <0.5x Cap/CF 3yrs out
These often present themselves near cycle bottoms....
#commodities
#cyclicals
#investing101
Medium term investors buying the dip should act with serious caution, bear market dipping becomes a serious capital loss exercise. Understand the wider liquidity flow issues at play, avoid becoming the victim. Most inexperienced investors will struggle with the losses.
#uranium
#uranium
Decoupling from contagion takes time, the period of time will be shorter assuming the #uranium spot moves above $65 while equities price in $45 or longer if the spot contages lower as well.
50-70% down from recent 7 month highs continues to be a compelling accummulation zone
50-70% down from recent 7 month highs continues to be a compelling accummulation zone
Fools buy the 15 dips in a bear market and self destruct 80% of their capital.
Those of us who built up 25-45% dry powder over the last 9 months have the resources to deploy into the next cycle bottoms that will multiply our capital by 10x plus.
#uranium
#commodities
#cyclicals
Those of us who built up 25-45% dry powder over the last 9 months have the resources to deploy into the next cycle bottoms that will multiply our capital by 10x plus.
#uranium
#commodities
#cyclicals
Predictability of #commodity cycles:
Undersupply stimulates rising prices as inventories are depleted
Oversupply stimulates falling prices as inventories build
Demand growth depleted inventories and stimulates rising prices
Demand reduction builds inventories and prices fall
Undersupply stimulates rising prices as inventories are depleted
Oversupply stimulates falling prices as inventories build
Demand growth depleted inventories and stimulates rising prices
Demand reduction builds inventories and prices fall
Great #commodity investors focus on returns, overweight commodities near cycle bottoms (recently that was 2nd and 3rd quarter 2020), now in 1st half 2022 there are may signs (use cycle prices and sector margins as a guide) of a maturing cycle (65%+ cash margins above cost curves)
Just like ole times... sounds smart like Buffett buying Burlington at the bottom... or going back to the beginning of the previous cycle when bot TFM. #Cyclicals #Reflation
They like it... 
Same bet made on NAFTA by buying TFM in 2004.. now getting bought coz it “marks a big bet on US-Mexico trade”...the more things change the more they stay the same.
crushed earnings.. stock now +242% from the lows.
More Housing = More Beds
US Consumer is on Fire. 🔥
More Housing = More Beds
US Consumer is on Fire. 🔥
: “Our biggest problem is not Demand, it’s Capacity.”
“We literally turned down, rejected, tens of millions of dollars of orders in US.”
Interesting point by J LaVorgna on CNBC today.... GDP.. 2Q20 Inventory -398bps of change.... inventory delta -$316B. Gr8 set up.
“We literally turned down, rejected, tens of millions of dollars of orders in US.”
Interesting point by J LaVorgna on CNBC today.... GDP.. 2Q20 Inventory -398bps of change.... inventory delta -$316B. Gr8 set up.
green up 0.6%.. wow.
down 0.8% today but outperforming its beta today.. but what a #Reflation signal.
Hitting high end of RSI.. give it a break... allowed to cool off.
