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The #HouseholdPulseSurvey estimates that of adults living in homes w/ children, 30.3% were in homes where children received #FoodAssistance in past 7 days based on responses collected 7/21-8/2. #Census #https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/household-pulse-survey/data.html
The #HouseholdPulseSurvey estimates that of adults living in homes w/ children under 5, 29.4% were in homes where children were unable to attend daycare/other #childcare arrangement due to safety concerns in past 4 weeks, based on responses collected 7/21-8/2. #Census #COVID #HPS
The #HouseholdPulseSurvey estimates that of 57.2% of American adults lived in homes where someone worked onsite at a workplace in past 7 days, based on responses collected 7/21-8/2. #Census #COVID #HPS
The #HouseholdPulseSurvey estimates that 17.4% of American adults expect someone in their household to experience loss in employment income in next 4 weeks, based on responses collected 3/3-15. census.gov/householdpulse… #Census #COVID19 #Pandemic #Coronavirus #EmploymentDisruption
The #HouseholdPulseSurvey estimates that 39.1% of adults live in households where at least one adult substituted some or all in-person work for #telework because of the coronavirus pandemic, based on responses collected March 3-15. #Census #COVID19 #Pandemic #Coronavirus
The #HouseholdPulseSurvey estimates that 8.8% of American adults lived in households where there was either sometimes or often not enough to eat in the previous 7 days, based on responses collected March 3-15. #Census #COVID19 #Pandemic #Coronavirus #FoodScarcity
898K Americans filed new regular state + PUA claims for unemployment insurance in the week ending 3/20, down 13% from prior week.
Tho this is still a very high level historically, it's the lowest since 51 weeks ago when we experienced a record-smashing claims spike to 3.3m.
Tho this is still a very high level historically, it's the lowest since 51 weeks ago when we experienced a record-smashing claims spike to 3.3m.
The share of adults employed is lifting off & workers' expectations about the labor market continues its rapid improvement, per new evidence @uscensusbureau #householdpulsesurvey.
The rise in employed share over the last month is corroborated in Bick & Blandin's quasi-CPS.
Share of adults employed lifting off, up 0.5 pp in last 4 weeks& across #JobsDay ref wks. Most in 3 months.
% of adults reporting being employed
56.9 : Mar3-15
56.5 : Feb17-Mar1
56.4 : Feb3-15
55.4 : Jan20-Feb1
56.3 : Jan6-18
56.8 : Dec9-21
56.3 : Nov25-Dec7
58.1 : Nov11-23
% of adults reporting being employed
56.9 : Mar3-15
56.5 : Feb17-Mar1
56.4 : Feb3-15
55.4 : Jan20-Feb1
56.3 : Jan6-18
56.8 : Dec9-21
56.3 : Nov25-Dec7
58.1 : Nov11-23
Workers' labor market expectations continue very rapid improvement. May foreshadow real gains.
Millions expecting employment income loss in next 4 weeks : period
47.5 : Mar3-15
51.0 : Feb17-Mar1
57.8 : Feb3-15
61.6 : Jan20-Feb1
66.1 : Jan6-18
76.5 : Dec9-21
76.7 : Nov25-Dec7
Millions expecting employment income loss in next 4 weeks : period
47.5 : Mar3-15
51.0 : Feb17-Mar1
57.8 : Feb3-15
61.6 : Jan20-Feb1
66.1 : Jan6-18
76.5 : Dec9-21
76.7 : Nov25-Dec7
These are from the @uscensusbureau #householdpulsesurvey.
The #HouseholdPulseSurvey estimates that 23.4% of American adults expect someone in their household to experience loss in employment income in next 4 weeks, based on responses collected 2/3-15. census.gov/householdpulse… #Census #COVID19 #Pandemic #Coronavirus #EmploymentDisruption
The #HouseholdPulseSurvey estimates that 38.8% of adults live in households where at least one adult substituted some or all in-person work for #telework because of the coronavirus pandemic, based on responses collected Feb. 3-15. #Census #COVID19 #Pandemic #Coronavirus
The #HouseholdPulseSurvey estimates that 11.4% of American adults lived in households where there was either sometimes or often not enough to eat in the previous 7 days, based on responses collected Feb. 3-15. #Census #COVID19 #Pandemic #Coronavirus #FoodScarcity
17.1 million American households are behind on their housing payment.
5.5 million are very likely or somewhat likely to leave their home due to eviction or foreclosure in the next two months.
This adjusts for item nonresponse @uscensusbureau #HouseholdPulseSurvey for 9/16-9/28.
5.5 million are very likely or somewhat likely to leave their home due to eviction or foreclosure in the next two months.
This adjusts for item nonresponse @uscensusbureau #HouseholdPulseSurvey for 9/16-9/28.
15% of American renters (8.4 million households) are behind on rent.
Among them, 46% (3.9 m) report it very or somewhat likely that they will have to leave their home in the next 2 months due to eviction.
Among them, 46% (3.9 m) report it very or somewhat likely that they will have to leave their home in the next 2 months due to eviction.
10% of American households with a home mortgage (8.7 million) are behind on their mortgage.
Among them, 19% (1.6 m) report it very or somewhat likely that they will leave their home due to foreclosure in the next two months.
Among them, 19% (1.6 m) report it very or somewhat likely that they will leave their home due to foreclosure in the next two months.
1.45 million initial state + PUA unemployment insurance claims filed in week ending 9/19, similar to prior week.
This extends a terrible streak to 27 consecutive weeks each with more UI claims than any of prior 2,776 weeks, back to record's start in 1967.
washingtonpost.com/business/2020/…
This extends a terrible streak to 27 consecutive weeks each with more UI claims than any of prior 2,776 weeks, back to record's start in 1967.
washingtonpost.com/business/2020/…
The number of Americans continuing to use UI payments is reported at 26 million. A reporting issue in CA made this higher in prior weeks.
U.S. has 6.6 million job openings.
If every opening were filled, there would be 19.4 million Americans using UI.
U.S. has 6.6 million job openings.
If every opening were filled, there would be 19.4 million Americans using UI.
To get a sense of weakness in that labor market, the share of Americans in their prime working years (age 25-54) who are now employed remains 5.2 percentage points below its February level.
This level is similar to its lowest level during and after the Great Recession.
This level is similar to its lowest level during and after the Great Recession.
Millions of Americans worried about their ability to pay for housing.
1 in 11 Americans with a mortgage and 1 in 4 renters report no confidence or slight confidence in their own ability to make their October housing payment.
Data @uscensusbureau #HouseholdPulseSurvey
1 in 11 Americans with a mortgage and 1 in 4 renters report no confidence or slight confidence in their own ability to make their October housing payment.
Data @uscensusbureau #HouseholdPulseSurvey
Huge shares of renters lack confidence in ability to pay October rent in Southern states, NV, NJ, RI, TX, and WY.
A large share of American households with a mortgage lack confidence in ability to pay October housing payment in Southern states, Dakotas, IL, WV, SC, and NY.
This is part of why the K-shaped recovery story can be overstated.
Pain is widespread. Employment to population ratio for those with BA+ remains down 3.8 percentage points since Feb.
Maybe k-shaped, but not K-shaped.
Pain is widespread. Employment to population ratio for those with BA+ remains down 3.8 percentage points since Feb.
Maybe k-shaped, but not K-shaped.
Here's reports of employment income loss and expected loss by 2019 family income from #HouseholdPulseSurvey in July.
Definitely the highest-income getting hit the softest. But still, 1/3 experienced employment income loss and 1/5 expected more to come.
Definitely the highest-income getting hit the softest. But still, 1/3 experienced employment income loss and 1/5 expected more to come.
It's #JobsDay.
In Mar+Apr, we lost 22 million jobs in tight lockdown.
In May+June, gained back about 33% of those, putting us at about 10% fewer jobs than Feb.
In Mar+Apr, we lost 22 million jobs in tight lockdown.
In May+June, gained back about 33% of those, putting us at about 10% fewer jobs than Feb.
Will today's report show continued recovery, slowing, stall, or reversal? Signals mixed but job change almost certainly slower than last month.
Pay more attention to employment-to-population ratio than unemployment rate.
Margin between employed & not is more meaningful these days than between (no job & searching for job) vs (no job & not searching).
We are below the record of 72 years prior to April
Margin between employed & not is more meaningful these days than between (no job & searching for job) vs (no job & not searching).
We are below the record of 72 years prior to April
Pres. Hoover's politics & policies of austerity helped create the Great Depression. The GOP seems committed to repeating these mistakes.
It's really 30 million unemployed, including the 12 million on the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and other programs.
It's really 30 million unemployed, including the 12 million on the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and other programs.
Thread
Lots of Americans worried about their ability to pay for housing.
34% of renters report no confidence or slight confidence in their own ability to pay rent next month, in the week ending July 21.
Was 31% a month ago (6/23 week). Data @uscensusbureau #HouseholdPulseSurvey
34% of renters report no confidence or slight confidence in their own ability to pay rent next month, in the week ending July 21.
Was 31% a month ago (6/23 week). Data @uscensusbureau #HouseholdPulseSurvey
Huge shares of renters lack confidence in ability to pay August rent in Southern states, OK, NE, NV, WV, NY, NJ, and CT.
Averaging over the last 2 weeks to reduce noise changes map a bit but still very high levels of concern.
Employment rate 52.4% in new @uscensusbureau #householdpulsesurvey for week ending July 21.
That 52.4% employment rate is down from a month ago but up from the prior week's 51.7%.
Averages 52.1% over the last 2 weeks, corresponding to the July CPS #JobsReport reference week.
Signals substantial employment loss coming in July #JobsReport.
Averages 52.1% over the last 2 weeks, corresponding to the July CPS #JobsReport reference week.
Signals substantial employment loss coming in July #JobsReport.
Even with the expected +1 million seasonal adjustment, the Pulse Survey is signaling the loss of millions (2.5 - 6?) of jobs in July's #JobsReport.
Caveat: the Pulse is new. It did well predicting the last 2 #JobsReports but we're in uncharted waters.
Caveat: the Pulse is new. It did well predicting the last 2 #JobsReports but we're in uncharted waters.
Lots of Americans worried about their ability to pay for housing.
34.7% of renters report no confidence or slight confidence in their own ability to pay rent next month, in the week ending July 14.
Was 30.7% a month ago. Worst in 11 weeks of #HouseholdPulseSurvey, by a smidge
34.7% of renters report no confidence or slight confidence in their own ability to pay rent next month, in the week ending July 14.
Was 30.7% a month ago. Worst in 11 weeks of #HouseholdPulseSurvey, by a smidge
The shares by state a month ago (left) and last week (right).
The share of Americans who owe a mortgage payment but express slight or no confidence was 14.5% in the week ending July 14, up from 12.8% a month prior.
Guess who made it into the #HouseholdPulseSurvey sample!
Done. 10 minutes.
The Household Pulse Survey sample is not for everyone but, if you play your cards right, you have a good shot at making into the 2020 decennial.
David's figure is based on @homebase_data. This is July's CPS reference week. **If** predictive, it's presaging stall of last two months' EPOP improvement.
And that is low. EPOP each of the last 3 months has been below U.S historic low from the prior 72 years on record.
And that is low. EPOP each of the last 3 months has been below U.S historic low from the prior 72 years on record.
Failure to beat virus keeps economy on its knees.
Based on responses collected June 18 through June 23, the #HouseholdPulseSurvey estimates that 32.0% of American adults expect to experience a loss in employment income during the #COVID-19 pandemic #Census
Based on responses collected June 18 through June 23, the #HouseholdPulseSurvey estimates that 9.7% of Americans lived in households where there was either sometimes or often not enough to eat in the previous 7 days. #Census #COVID-19
Based on responses collected June 18 through June 23, the #HouseholdPulseSurvey estimates that 41.5% of adults had delayed getting medical care in the previous 4 weeks because of the #COVID-19 pandemic. #Census
