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Here we go, my monthly #JobsDay thread:
Huge huge jobs report. 600k new jobs w/revisions!
Under Biden now:
- lowest peacetime unemployment rate since WWII
- lowest poverty/uninsured rates ever
- best recovery in G7
- lower trade deficits/deficits 1/
Huge huge jobs report. 600k new jobs w/revisions!
Under Biden now:
- lowest peacetime unemployment rate since WWII
- lowest poverty/uninsured rates ever
- best recovery in G7
- lower trade deficits/deficits 1/
Let's now review a series of stats showing just remarkable the US economy is right now.
US economic recovery from COVID under @POTUS has been the best in the G7. 2/
US economic recovery from COVID under @POTUS has been the best in the G7. 2/
@POTUS 33.8m jobs = 16 yrs Clinton Obama
12.1m jobs = 2 yrs Biden
1.9m jobs = 16 yrs Bush Bush Trump
6 times more jobs created in 2 yrs under Biden then under last 3 GOP Presidents *COMBINED* 3/
12.1m jobs = 2 yrs Biden
1.9m jobs = 16 yrs Bush Bush Trump
6 times more jobs created in 2 yrs under Biden then under last 3 GOP Presidents *COMBINED* 3/
Tomorrow is #JobsDay, my favorite day of the month! Except that tomorrow's report is going to be so, so, SO annoying. Quick, nerdy thread on why:
First, population adjustments! For the January jobs data every year, @BLS_gov incorporates updated population estimates into the Current Population Survey (the source of data on the labor force, unemployment, etc).
Importantly, BLS does *not* revise its previously published data -- it treats each year's adjustment as a one-time change, as if the population suddenly grew or shrank in January, as you can see in this chart.
#jobsday On the whole, this is a very positive report. The job growth is somewhat higher than can be sustained over the long-term, but not hugely so.
Sectors that had trouble hiring, most notably health care, are catching up.
Most importantly from an inflation perspective, wage growth is now very close to being at a non-inflationary pace.
#jobsday share of workers working two full-time jobs, fell sharply. (This is a Washington Post measure of economic distress -- although it actually rises in good times)
I assume that the Washington Post will have a major piece on how workers' plights have improved.
If it's not clear, I am being sarcastic. The WaPo had an absurd piece saying that the record number (not share) of people working two full-time jobs was a sign of people not being able to make ends meet. The actual record was in 2000, at the peak of the Internet boom.
Happy #JobsDay.
At 8:30 am ET @BLS_gov delivers the most-important signals abt how economy is changing.
Forecasts’ center:
+318K jobs
Steady at 3.5% unemployment rate
At 8:30 am ET @BLS_gov delivers the most-important signals abt how economy is changing.
Forecasts’ center:
+318K jobs
Steady at 3.5% unemployment rate
Biggest question in economy:
How quickly can we raise supply? Keep global communities healthy & vibrant. Bring more labor & capital to production & boost productivity. Success means more consumption & lower prices.
Failure means painful demand reductions via Fed.
How quickly can we raise supply? Keep global communities healthy & vibrant. Bring more labor & capital to production & boost productivity. Success means more consumption & lower prices.
Failure means painful demand reductions via Fed.
Increased supply comes if employers improve jobs fast enough to attract people they say they want to hire off sidelines.
Since pre-pandemic, corporate profit margins grew 35%, much faster than prices (+13%) or private-sector hourly labor costs (+10%).
Since pre-pandemic, corporate profit margins grew 35%, much faster than prices (+13%) or private-sector hourly labor costs (+10%).
Okay, here it is - our monthly #jobsday thread:
34m jobs - 16 yrs Clinton Obama
9m jobs - 17 months Biden
1.9m jobs - 16 years 2 Bushes Trump
4.5 times more Biden jobs in 17 months than last 3 GOP Presidents combined over 16 years. 1/
34m jobs - 16 yrs Clinton Obama
9m jobs - 17 months Biden
1.9m jobs - 16 years 2 Bushes Trump
4.5 times more Biden jobs in 17 months than last 3 GOP Presidents combined over 16 years. 1/
Since 1989 45m net new jobs have been created in the United States.
43m - 96% - have been created under Democratic Presidents.
Shout this one from the rooftops people! 2/
43m - 96% - have been created under Democratic Presidents.
Shout this one from the rooftops people! 2/
Wages are continuing to grow at a very rapid rate. 7% for prime age workers. 3/
The monthly @BLS_gov jobs report is out, and it is another good one.
And it's time for our monthly #Jobsday thread!
33.8m jobs - 16 years Clinton Obama
8.7m jobs - 16 months Biden
1.9m jobs - 16 yrs of 2 Bushes Trump
4 times more Biden jobs than last 3 Rs COMBINED. 1/
And it's time for our monthly #Jobsday thread!
33.8m jobs - 16 years Clinton Obama
8.7m jobs - 16 months Biden
1.9m jobs - 16 yrs of 2 Bushes Trump
4 times more Biden jobs than last 3 Rs COMBINED. 1/
Words we should be using
strong recovery continues
remarkable ongoing strength, vitality of US economy
lows/near lows in uninsured, poverty, unemployed
2/
strong recovery continues
remarkable ongoing strength, vitality of US economy
lows/near lows in uninsured, poverty, unemployed
2/
Jobs created per month:
Biden - 543,000
Clinton/Obama - 176,000
2 Bushes/Trump - 9,600
Biden job creation rate 50 times rate of last 3 GOP Presidents. 50 times.
Look at the R number - 9,600 a month for 16 years.
3/
Biden - 543,000
Clinton/Obama - 176,000
2 Bushes/Trump - 9,600
Biden job creation rate 50 times rate of last 3 GOP Presidents. 50 times.
Look at the R number - 9,600 a month for 16 years.
3/
Happy #JobsDay. Hope you’re staying healthy.
At 8:30 am ET @BLS_gov delivers the most-important signals abt how economy is changing.
Forecasts’ center:
+400K jobs
3.5% unemployment rate, would = pre-pandemic low back to 1969.
At 8:30 am ET @BLS_gov delivers the most-important signals abt how economy is changing.
Forecasts’ center:
+400K jobs
3.5% unemployment rate, would = pre-pandemic low back to 1969.
Biggest question in the economy:
How quickly can we raise supply? Bring more labor & capital to production & boost productivity.
Success means more consumption & lower prices.
Failure means more-painful demand reductions.
How quickly can we raise supply? Bring more labor & capital to production & boost productivity.
Success means more consumption & lower prices.
Failure means more-painful demand reductions.
Will we keep/get COVID under control in US/abroad?
Will employers increase supply by improving job offers fast enough to attract the people they say they want to hire, bring people off sidelines & compensate them for risks/hassles?
Will employers increase supply by improving job offers fast enough to attract the people they say they want to hire, bring people off sidelines & compensate them for risks/hassles?
Here it is - our #jobsday thread.....
34m jobs = 16 yrs Clinton Obama
7.4 jobs = Biden
2m jobs = 16 yrs Bush Bush Trump
3 times as many Biden jobs as last 3 GOP Presidents COMBINED. 1/
34m jobs = 16 yrs Clinton Obama
7.4 jobs = Biden
2m jobs = 16 yrs Bush Bush Trump
3 times as many Biden jobs as last 3 GOP Presidents COMBINED. 1/
Of the 43m net new jobs created in America since 1989 41m - 95% - have been created under Democratic Presidents. 2/
Job creation is happening at more than 50x the rate under Biden as under the last 3 GOP Presidents.
Biden = 568,000 jobs a month
3 GOPers = 9,700 jobs a month.
Yes that's only 9,700 jobs a month over 16 years. 3/
Biden = 568,000 jobs a month
3 GOPers = 9,700 jobs a month.
Yes that's only 9,700 jobs a month over 16 years. 3/
NEW #JobsReport ANALYSIS:
Here’s a compilation thread of @DeanBaker13’s quick-take analysis of #BLSdata. #JobsDay
Watch @ceprdc later this morning for detailed report.
Here’s a compilation thread of @DeanBaker13’s quick-take analysis of #BLSdata. #JobsDay
Watch @ceprdc later this morning for detailed report.
As expected, another very strong report 678k jobs, unemployment down to 3.8%.
More upward revisions: added 92k to Dec and Jan numbers.
More upward revisions: added 92k to Dec and Jan numbers.
Number reporting being out of the labor force because of the pandemic fell from 1.8 million to 1.2 million. This is a close to half of the drop in the workforce compared to pre-pandemic.
Tomorrow is #jobsday! So, it feels like a good time to remind everyone that those with less than a high school diploma are being left behind in this recovery.
Since Feb 2020, nearly 1 million people with less than a high school diploma have been forced out of the labor force.
Since Feb 2020, nearly 1 million people with less than a high school diploma have been forced out of the labor force.
These labor force losses are much larger than those experienced by groups with higher levels of educational attainment – in fact, those with at least a bachelor’s degree have actually seen labor force gains over this time 👇
While the unemployment rate amongst those with less than a high school diploma is higher than other groups (& really high for Black workers), the huge labor force declines mask the extent of joblessness. Remember, those not counted in the labor force aren’t counted as unemployed.
Happy #JobsDay. Hope you’re staying healthy. #HappyHanukkah.
At 8:30 am ET @BLS_gov delivers the most-important signals abt how economy is changing.
Forecasts’ center:
+573K jobs
4.5% unemployment rate, down 0.1 percentage point (pp)
At 8:30 am ET @BLS_gov delivers the most-important signals abt how economy is changing.
Forecasts’ center:
+573K jobs
4.5% unemployment rate, down 0.1 percentage point (pp)
Americans have gained more income & enjoy higher levels of wealth than ever before.
We want to buy. Consumer and labor demand is high.
We want to buy. Consumer and labor demand is high.
Biggest question in the economy: how quickly can we raise supply? Bring more labor & capital to production & boost productivity.
Success means more consumption & lower prices. COVID health risks at home & abroad remain the big obstacle, making work riskier.
Success means more consumption & lower prices. COVID health risks at home & abroad remain the big obstacle, making work riskier.
Happy #JobsDay.
Strong job gains in October: +531K.
+235K in upward revisions of the prior 2 months.
Strong job gains in October: +531K.
+235K in upward revisions of the prior 2 months.
This leaves us 4.2 million below Feb 2020.
It leaves us 8.3 million jobs below the pre-pandemic trend.
Time for a #jobsday charts thread! Starting off a bit differently this month: Wages.
Avg. earnings up 10 cents/hour in June, and 43 cents over the past three months.
On one hand: Growth slowing. OTOH: Earnings now well above pre-pandemic trajectory.
Avg. earnings up 10 cents/hour in June, and 43 cents over the past three months.
On one hand: Growth slowing. OTOH: Earnings now well above pre-pandemic trajectory.
We're seeing serious wage pressure in leisure and hospitality, consistent with anecdotal reports. Avg. earnings for nonsupervisors up 37 cents/hour in June, and more than $1.50 over past year.
Despite drop early in pandemic, their wages are now also above pre-crisis trend.
Despite drop early in pandemic, their wages are now also above pre-crisis trend.
Notably, though, average weekly hours fell, both overall and for leisure and hospitality. That's surprising in an environment where employers can't find enough workers.
The labor market added 559,000 jobs in May, very strong growth in line with expectations. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.8%, and most of that drop was for “good” reasons, people getting jobs. 1/
However, we still have 7.6 million fewer jobs than we did before the recession, in February 2020. 2/
Further that 7.6 million is not the total gap in the labor market. Without COVID, we would have *added* jobs over the last 15 months as the working-age population grew. Taking that into account, the total gap in the labor market right now is at least 8.5 million jobs. 3/
Share of adults employed lifting off, up 0.5 pp in last 4 weeks& across #JobsDay ref wks. Most in 3 months.
% of adults reporting being employed
56.9 : Mar3-15
56.5 : Feb17-Mar1
56.4 : Feb3-15
55.4 : Jan20-Feb1
56.3 : Jan6-18
56.8 : Dec9-21
56.3 : Nov25-Dec7
58.1 : Nov11-23
% of adults reporting being employed
56.9 : Mar3-15
56.5 : Feb17-Mar1
56.4 : Feb3-15
55.4 : Jan20-Feb1
56.3 : Jan6-18
56.8 : Dec9-21
56.3 : Nov25-Dec7
58.1 : Nov11-23
Workers' labor market expectations continue very rapid improvement. May foreshadow real gains.
Millions expecting employment income loss in next 4 weeks : period
47.5 : Mar3-15
51.0 : Feb17-Mar1
57.8 : Feb3-15
61.6 : Jan20-Feb1
66.1 : Jan6-18
76.5 : Dec9-21
76.7 : Nov25-Dec7
Millions expecting employment income loss in next 4 weeks : period
47.5 : Mar3-15
51.0 : Feb17-Mar1
57.8 : Feb3-15
61.6 : Jan20-Feb1
66.1 : Jan6-18
76.5 : Dec9-21
76.7 : Nov25-Dec7
These are from the @uscensusbureau #householdpulsesurvey.
Today's jobs report shows that 379,000 jobs were added in February, but the U.S. economy is still down 9.5 million jobs from a year ago. Congress MUST pass the full $1.9 trillion relief package immediately.
Learn more from @eliselgould: epi.org/indicators/une…
Learn more from @eliselgould: epi.org/indicators/une…
While the overall unemployment rate declined slightly to 6.2%, the Black unemployment rate actually increased to 9.9%. Passing large-scale relief measures now is an economic and racial justice imperative. #JobsDay #JobsReport
The official unemployment rate understates the total economic pain. 25.1 million workers—or 14.7% of the workforce—have been directly harmed by the coronavirus downturn.
Today is the last #JobsDay with data from the Trump Administration (today’s data are from mid-January). So what does the economy former President Trump handed off to President Biden look like? It’s bleak. 1/
The labor market added just 49,000 jobs in January. And that's likely too rosy—given low seasonal hiring in the pandemic, seasonal adjustments likely made the December numbers look worse than they really were and are making the January numbers look better than they really are. 2/
The average job change of the last three months provides a better sense of current movements, and it was just 29,000. We have 9.9 million fewer jobs than we did before the recession. At *this* pace it would take 29 years to get back to prerecession jobs levels. 3/
More than 10 months into the #COVID19 induced “she-cession,” women have lost a net of 5.4 million jobs–nearly 1 million more jobs than men.
Policymakers must pass bold, structural policy changes that prioritize women & their families’ economic security.
americanprogress.org/?p=495209
Policymakers must pass bold, structural policy changes that prioritize women & their families’ economic security.
americanprogress.org/?p=495209
We know that women, especially women of color, were already struggling to manage work and care before the pandemic.
Now, women, esp. Black & Hispanic women are working in jobs deemed essential while also bearing the brunt of increased caregiving.
Now, women, esp. Black & Hispanic women are working in jobs deemed essential while also bearing the brunt of increased caregiving.
We're already witnessing the long-term harm to racial, gender, and economic equity as the "she-cession" worsens.
Last December’s #JobsDay data revealed that women lost all the nonfarm payroll jobs while Black, Hispanic, & Asian women accounted for all of the women’s job losses.
Last December’s #JobsDay data revealed that women lost all the nonfarm payroll jobs while Black, Hispanic, & Asian women accounted for all of the women’s job losses.
Here we are, astonishingly, at the last #JobsDay of 2020. It’s a moment to take stock of where things stand after the first 11 months of 2020 (and the first 9 months of COVID). Brace yourselves. 1/
We added 245,000 jobs in November, but the labor market remains in crisis. We lost so many jobs in March and April that even though we’ve now added jobs for 7 months in a row, we are still nearly 10 million jobs below where we were in February. 2/
Further, in the year before the recession, we added 194,000 jobs per month on average, so from February to November, we could have added around 1.7 million jobs. That means the total gap in the labor market right now is on the order of 11.6 million jobs. 3/
Happy #JobsDay. 8:30 ET @BLS_gov delivers the most-important signals abt how economy is changing.
Forecasts' center:
+432,000 jobs
6.8% unemployment, tick down from 6.9%
But lots of reason to expect weaker jobs growth.
Forecasts' center:
+432,000 jobs
6.8% unemployment, tick down from 6.9%
But lots of reason to expect weaker jobs growth.
+245K jobs gained last month (mid-Oct to mid-Nov).
Small +11K revisions of last 2 months.
This continues the deceleration of job growth we seen steadily for months.
Small +11K revisions of last 2 months.
This continues the deceleration of job growth we seen steadily for months.
We are down 9.8 million jobs since Feb and growth is decelerating, likely to turn negative over the current month.
For comparison, during the Great Recession, we lost fewer than 9 million jobs.
For comparison, during the Great Recession, we lost fewer than 9 million jobs.
September was the 7th month of the COVID crisis in the U.S. labor market, and the situation is dire. We added 661,000 jobs in Sept, but the labor market remains in crisis—we lost so many jobs in March and Apr that we are still 10.7 million jobs below where we were in Feb. 1/
And, nearly a quarter of a million jobs right now—247,000—are temporary jobs related to the decennial census that will disappear in the next few months. Not counting temporary census jobs, our jobs deficit is now 11.0 million jobs. 2/ census.gov/content/dam/Ce…
Further, in the year before the recession, we added 194,000 jobs per month on average, so from Feb-Sep, we should have added around 1.4 million jobs. That means the total gap in the labor market right now is on the order of 12.3 million jobs. 3/
Last week, total initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims rose for the fourth week straight, from 1.6 million to 1.7 million. Of last week’s 1.7 million, 884,000 applied for regular state UI and 839,000 applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance. 1/ dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
A reminder: Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) is the federal program for workers who are not eligible for regular unemployment insurance, like gig workers. It provides up to 39 weeks of benefits and expires at the end of this year. 2/
Last week was the 25th straight week total initial claims were far greater than the worst week of the Great Recession (GR). If you restrict to regular state claims (b/c we didn’t have PUA in the GR), initial claims were still greater than the 2nd-worst week of the GR. 3/
Thread: Today’s #JobsReport shows a labor market that, despite improvements since April, remains devastated by the #COVID19 recession. #JobsDay
Here are six signs showing why.
cbpp.org/blog/6-signs-t…
Here are six signs showing why.
cbpp.org/blog/6-signs-t…
1. The jobs “hole” that opened in March & April remains huge.
Private payroll employment remains 10.7 million jobs below its February level & state & local government payrolls remain 1.1 million jobs below.
cbpp.org/blog/6-signs-t…
Private payroll employment remains 10.7 million jobs below its February level & state & local government payrolls remain 1.1 million jobs below.
cbpp.org/blog/6-signs-t…
2. State & local job losses, many in education, remain large due to budget cuts.
In April alone, more state & local workers were furloughed or laid off than in the Great Recession of a decade ago & its aftermath. #JobsDay
In April alone, more state & local workers were furloughed or laid off than in the Great Recession of a decade ago & its aftermath. #JobsDay
