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The #JobsReport came in at 372,000 jobs gained, the #unemployment rate at 3.6%, which was coupled with #wage growth of 5.1% year-over-year: all solid numbers in a historic context.
Still, when taken in the context of much of the #economic data coming in, last week’s #employment report reemphasized two key tenets of the economy and consequently of #investment markets: 1) the U.S., and indeed the global economy, is tangibly slowing…
…and 2) we are probably past the #employment peak and will likely witness #LaborMarket slowing in the back half of the year.
Employment rate 52.4% in new @uscensusbureau #householdpulsesurvey for week ending July 21.
That 52.4% employment rate is down from a month ago but up from the prior week's 51.7%.
Averages 52.1% over the last 2 weeks, corresponding to the July CPS #JobsReport reference week.
Signals substantial employment loss coming in July #JobsReport.
Averages 52.1% over the last 2 weeks, corresponding to the July CPS #JobsReport reference week.
Signals substantial employment loss coming in July #JobsReport.
Even with the expected +1 million seasonal adjustment, the Pulse Survey is signaling the loss of millions (2.5 - 6?) of jobs in July's #JobsReport.
Caveat: the Pulse is new. It did well predicting the last 2 #JobsReports but we're in uncharted waters.
Caveat: the Pulse is new. It did well predicting the last 2 #JobsReports but we're in uncharted waters.
