Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ep2019

Louis Drounau

@Louis_Drounau

Interesting report by @EPInstitutional & @PDurandOfficiel on #EP2019 elections, in particular on the need for more #genderbalance, reform of @EUCouncil and of the #spitzenkandidat system, and the role of #Europeanparties.
BUT.... a short thread 👇 1/9
europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document…

#Genderbalance is essential and political parties must be required to submit *gender-alternate* lists, where no two consecutive candidates can be of the same gender. This is one more reason to harmonise voting modalities at the EU level and not leave them up to Member States. 2/9

Our voting system must be reformed to ensure not only proportionality, but also a close link between citizens and MEPs. Lists of 30, 40 or 90 candidates are the best way for citizens to have no information about MEPs beyond their party affiliation. 3/9
eudemocracy.eu/adopting-the-i…

Read 10 tweets

Louis Drounau

@Louis_Drounau

Discover the #EuropeanElections as you have never seen them before!
Time to focus on what ought to be the real actors of #EU politics: European political parties! #EP2019
@alemannoEU @ulrikeguerot @AndrewDuffEU
eudemocracy.eu/european-elect…

In other news, European Democracy Consulting just notified the Authority on European Political Parties and Political Foundations that it was in breach of its transparency requirements. Short of a remedy, we will lodge a complaint with the @EUombudsman. eudemocracy.eu

Food for thought! @EPP @PES_PSE @ALDEParty @europeangreens @IDParty_ @ECRparty @VoltEuropa @EuropeanPirates @EFAparty @ECPM_official @PDE_EDP @europeanleft

Read 3 tweets

Alberto Alemanno

@alemannoEU

How the Conference on the future of Europe will look like? And what will it actually do?

After months of speculation, it's the European Parliament – not the Commission that first initiated #CoFoE – to offer 1st blueprint.

Here’s an initial analysis THREAD @threadreaderapp

(Spoiler): The Conference is in essence a Constitutional Convention model PLUS, but whose 'plus' is so tiny that fails to capture the unprecedented vivacity of EU civil society and mismanage expectations after #EP2019 #CoFoE

Despite its constitutional ambitions, #CoFoE won’t be a grandiloquent Convention entrusted to draft Constitution for EU. Yet a closer look suggests it'll play a similar role: to prepare a set of “concrete recommendations” that may be turned into legislative and/or Treaty changes

Read 12 tweets

EPP

@EPP

💬Welcome our leaders, delegates, guests & the press to #Zagreb as we kick off our 2-day #EPPZagreb Congress. It's an important Congress as @EPP delegates will elect a new leadership & vote on the party's stance on important policies.

💬With a new President and a new Presidency, the @EPP enters a new era. EPP was once again victorious in #EP2019 European elections & managed to elect again an EPP Commission President, but we must now change too to improve & adapt to new realities

💬I couldn't be more proud to sit next to PM @AndrejPlenkovic today. I have followed his ascent from the beginning of his career in the @Europarl_EN & I knew he would leave a mark and make history for #Croatia. PM #Plenkovic' leadership & vision is praised at home & in Europe

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David Wood

@dw2

About to speak at #ep2019 for @empoweredpeopl4 on the topic of "Anticipating disruptions: learning from examples of triumph and disaster"

@empoweredpeopl4 And after lunch, my next #ep2019 session for @empoweredpeopl4 is "Transformational change: why it frequently founders - and how to succeed"

@empoweredpeopl4 Mentioned during informal discussion after this #ep2019 session: "The Capture", the BBC's current drama series which features the real-time editing of live video feeds, and in which things generally turn out disturbingly different from first impressions bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episod…

Read 3 tweets

Oliver Schwarz

@OSchwarzUDE

Happy to provide some thoughts on the impact of #Brexit on the @Europarl_EN at today's panel "The future of Europe" of the #epwahlsammelband2019 conference at @unidue.

@Europarl_EN @unidue @MichaelKaeding @JSchmaelter @foederalist The paper's results in a nutshell: Brexit has important implications for the @Europarl_EN over the coming years, both institutionally and politically. First and foremost, the EP will lose its British members and thus reduce its size from 751 to 705 MEPs. (1/8)

However, and even more important, the composition of the EP's political groups and its internal balance of power is set to change noticeably. For example, after #Brexit the ID would become the 4th largest group, putting the Greens/EFA on the 5th position. (2/8)

Read 10 tweets

Keith Mills

@KeithMillsD7

Thread 1/5
On it's own this is a small but embarrassing climbdown and it's not a major story, however it's a good reflection of the momentum that's going against @FineGael right now.

rte.ie/news/politics/…

2/5
@LeoVaradkar's long honeymoon is now over. The party is not delivering on public services, on financial prudence, on housing or on tax cuts. The way the Mercusor deal is being spun is pissing off farmers and this insensitivity to Catholics is just icing on the cake.

3/5
The very poor performance in Dublin in #le19 and #ep2019 and declining poll numbers have now made #ge19 a frightening prospect for @FineGael but losing four bye-elections in November is just as awful, if they delay a general election.

Read 5 tweets

Matthew Goodwin

@GoodwinMJ

Who voted Brexit Party in 2019?

Demographics of the #Brexit Party vote at #ep2019

Source: our forthcoming work w/Clarke, Stewart & Whiteley

Worth thinking about this one alongside the Boris tax cut ...

Support for the Brexit Party by perceptions of being economically left behind

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Jon Worth

@jonworth

I'm wondering about #Brexit and political identity, and how much this can explain the #ep2019 result in the UK, and might inform what Tories and Labour might try to do if there were a UK General Election

What the UK population things about Brexit is well documented in this PDF ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl… by @UKandEU

The hardening of voter sentiment about the EU question is covered by this polling from YouGov yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…

Read 7 tweets

Electoral Psychology Observatory

@EPO_lse

New @OpiniumResearch poll has Brexit party top GE voting intentions after YouGov had LibDems top. Polls inform voters' intentions as much as they measure them. Those two say: "other party than Con/Lab can win next General Election so you can choose them without wasting your vote"

This "informational" effect of the two polls this week is even more worrying for Labour and Tories than the "measurement" element. It will further unleash voters' frustration towards them by harming their claim on useful/strategic voting.

We wrote before #EP2019 polls shouldn't be read as "predictions" of vote.This is even more valid for those polls and the next GE. Yet,they could potentially start a dynamic where BrexitP and LibDem vote might be perceived as the strategic choices of Remainers and Leavers.

Read 4 tweets

Simon Hix

@simonjhix

I've been updating some figures on the composition of the EP over time after the #EP2019 results
(@sarahobolt @bjornhoyland @ggbenedetto @CatherineDVries @GoodwinMJ @tabouchadi @sd270 @markhleonard @kevcunningham @mvanhulten @dorufrantescu). Here's the first one

Here are the peaks in size of the groups:
S&D 38.2% in May94
EPP 37.4% in May04
ALDE 14.8% in Jul19
EAPN 10.5% in Jul19 (but might go higher in next few weeks)
ECR 10.0% in Ma19 (but might go higher in next few weeks)
G/EFA 9.7% in Jul19
GUE 6.9% in Jul14
EFDD 5.5% in May19

And here's a figure showing the fragmentation of the party system in the EP. The numbers above the line are the "Effective Number of Parties" (ENP) at the start of an EP, and the numbers below are the ENP at the end of an EP.

6.5 "effective" parties in the EP is a new high.

Read 4 tweets

Matthew Goodwin

@GoodwinMJ

To mark the release of "Nacionalpopulismo" I am giving away 3 free copies to first people who DM me their contact info. Postage on me #ep2019 Otherwise €20 on Amazon.ES

amazon.es/Nacionalpopuli…

All gone

En route to Cristobal in Chile, David and Daniel in Spain and America in France. Enjoy! Wish I had more to give away but, you know, publishers ... ;-)

Read 3 tweets

Julia Schulte-Cloos

@jschultecloos

Why are the European Parliament elections "winning elections" for the radical right & what are the implications for national success? #EP2019

1) Their programmatic demands are salient

2) EU technocracy fits anti-elitist discourse

3) EP elections are "second-order"

/1 👇

1) EP elections help the radical right to advance their core programmatic demands.

Why?
The issue of European integration is particularly salient in the campaign.
/2

It is debated in close connection to issues pertaining to cultural or identitarian politics, notably immigration, the 'twin issue' of European integration. Conflicts over these issues form an increasingly relevant dimension of party competition across Europe.
/3

Read 13 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

Much of the supposed analysis of the Tory leadership race, and the statements from the candidates, are horribly confused and confusing.

I think this is because we are asking the wrong question.

We are asking:
"Who will be the next Tory leader?"

But the actual question is:
"What will the Tory Party be in future?"

There are three answers to the Q what the Tory Party will be.

1️⃣ It is the Tory Party - a centre-right party with notions of economic prudence, pro-business etc.

2️⃣ It seeks to be the Brexit Party - delivering Brexit, and doing so as soon as possible by whatever means available

Read 11 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

Trying to make sense of what is happening in 🇩🇪 politics just now has been on my mind a lot recently.

Here is a thread about it...

...and it starts with someone pretty much all of my non-German followers will never have heard of:

YouTuber @rezomusik

The Guardian has a summary of the Rezo phenomenon here:
theguardian.com/world/2019/may…

tl;dr - it's a 55 minute rant about the shortcomings of the CDU-SPD grand coalition, and urging people to vote in #EP2019

Here's the full video:

12 million views so far!

And Rezo and 90 others followed up with this:

3.2 million views

Read 19 tweets

Bruno Waterfield

@BrunoBrussels

It was the fourth EU election I covered here in Brussels last night
So (sorry as it’s a crowded market) some reflections/a thread #ep2019
Sorry

The first one I did here was 2004
The EPP/Socialist majority (a combined 485 out of 732 MEPs) and machine was chugging away at the heart of the EU - like a well ordered German diesel

There were cracks - Farage did well
The French Socialists + others were pushing Chirac for a referendum on the newly agreed EU constitution - an upheaval to come
Some writing on the wall, the 2005 French and Dutch referendum earthquake still reverberates - concluded with Brexit

Read 18 tweets

Democracy4.0 ™

@Smart_Democracy

Citizen K on

#EuropeanElectionResults :

- Mainstream politics will continue to lose ground unless they will renew & restructure themselves by organisational architecture, people, messages, technology.

- Leaning toward extremists in messaging will only benefit the extremists.

Citizen K comments on #EuropeanElectionResults :

- 51% turnout may look promising but deserves a deeper analysis.

- Whose votes increased most? Therefore who mobilized her voters more..

Based on these results, it is hard to say the champion of this is the mainstream politics..

Citizen K on #EuropeanElectionResults :

- Countries who joined the EU after 2004 are the countries with least participation Slovakia, Czechia, Croatia, Bulgaria..

- Alarming for the success rate of European integration, power of European dream.

Read 7 tweets

David Gilbert

@daithaigilbert

The winners of #EP2019 are the far-right/populists, the Greens and the liberals. The losers are the mainstream parties who no longer have a grand coalition and will need to cozy up to the Greens/liberals to keep Salvini/Le Pen etc from power news.vice.com/en_us/article/…

“It is going to be a fragmented European parliament and one that will find more difficult to come out with a clear political direction" — @QuentinPeel from @ChathamHouse on the future of the EU news.vice.com/en_us/article/…

"The common thread is that people voted for change, that is why they opted for liberal and green parties, often instead of the mainstream parties,” @PawelZerka from @ecfr on the move away from the centre news.vice.com/en_us/article/…

Read 4 tweets

Alex Andreou

@sturdyAlex

THREAD: 1. Everything needs a bit more analysis and a cooler head. Stop catastrophising. Our despair is the far right’s biggest weapon. In France, for instance, I hear from a couple of friends within En Marche they’re delighted being 0.9% behind LePen after months of turmoil.

2. Remember, in a presidential election, most of the rest of the vote unites against LePen. Macron is in a commanding position for a second term. LePen won in 2014 with 24.4%. She’s now on 23.3. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders - an absolutely key figure in the Euro alt-right -

3. ... was annihilated, losing all 4 of his MEPs. In Greece, Golden Dawn have dropped from 9.4% to 4.9%. In Austria the FPO from 20% to 17%, in turmoil over financial scandal, and out of gov’t. In Germany the AfD barely moved the dial, adding 1 MEP, while the Greens came second.

Read 5 tweets

Adam Sykes

@AdamSykesWirral

Important result that Tories lost twice as many seats to #Remain parties than #BrexitParty. BXP swapped for 23 UKIP and gained extra 5 to get 28. Tories lost 15 seats - 5 to BXP and 10 to Remain.
#EUelections2019 #EP2019

Conservative MPs must be aware that it's too late for new members to join & vote in #ToryLeadershipContest. However, if a general election is coming, there will probably be time to take part in selections/deselections of MP. This may be by #Remain voters.
#EUelections2019

6M plus signed a petition to revoke Article 50. If 2.5% of them joined the Conservatives, then they would be likely bigger than the current membership. Won't be enough time for #ToryLeadership in the #ToryLeadershipContest but possibly enough time before any General Election.

Read 3 tweets

Alberto Nardelli

@AlbertoNardelli

A few thoughts on #EP2019 now that most of the results are in.

The key words are fragmentation and polarisation.

1) if you compare 2019 & 2014 results, the main centre-right and centre-left blocs have lost seats. Liberals, greens, and far-right nationalists have made gains

2) Far-right nationalists as a whole are on similar levels to 2014 & recent elections. Gains are driven by a small number of parties. In several countries support has fallen. Le Pen's first place is mostly symbolic — she did better in 2014.

3) Far-right nationalism isn't going away, it remains a significant force, but it is not a 2019 trend nor is it surging and constantly advancing as much of the narrative and framing of European elections suggests

Read 11 tweets

Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ep2019

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