Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #deterrence
Most recents (24)
Russia's suspension of #NewSTART, 🇸🇪 & 🇫🇮 role for nuclear disarmament, prospects for US-Russian-Chinese cooperation & Iran’s uranium enrichment: our #STAND team's regular thread on recent news and analyses to #underSTAND #nuclear #deterrence and #threats (no endorsement).(1/9) 
Putin’s announcement to suspend Russia’s🇷🇺 participation in the #NewSTART treaty may signal the end to formal #arms #control (bit.ly/3EpGB5J). @WarOnTheRocks, @HannaNotte argues that the US should use all means to reverse Russia’s decision (bit.ly/3IMc6tm).(2/9)
Also @WarOnTheRocks, @ProfOnderco and Clara Portela discuss the consequences of NATO’s Nordic enlargement on Swedish🇸🇪 and Finnish🇫🇮 bridge-building in the field of #nuclear #disarmament (bit.ly/3xKtg41). Joining NATO could impede their role as mediators.(3/9)
@jaketapper July 42, 2016
“Russians hacked into the DNC, and now are releasing these files through WikiLeaks to help Donald Trump?”
@RobbyMook ”Well, this isn’t my assertion, there are a number of experts that are asserting this.”
“Russians hacked into the DNC, and now are releasing these files through WikiLeaks to help Donald Trump?”
@RobbyMook ”Well, this isn’t my assertion, there are a number of experts that are asserting this.”
@jaketapper @RobbyMook Mook:
“I think we need to get to the bottom of these facts. Experts have that it is the Russians who went in & took these emails. If they are the ones who took them, then we have to infer they are the ones releasing them.”
“I think we need to get to the bottom of these facts. Experts have that it is the Russians who went in & took these emails. If they are the ones who took them, then we have to infer they are the ones releasing them.”
@jaketapper @RobbyMook Tapper wants to focus on WikiLeaks emails that were about @DWStweets @DNC & Bernie Sanders: “You’re not gonna answer the question about specifics”
Were those emails about the DNC & Sanders also RU disinfo/phony?
#DurhamReport
Were those emails about the DNC & Sanders also RU disinfo/phony?
#DurhamReport
A French nuclear umbrella, tensions over New START, proliferation risks in the Middle East, deterrence in Asia, & emotions in nuclear brinkmanship: our #STAND team's regular thread on recent news and analyses to #underSTAND #nuclear #deterrence and #threats (no endorsement).(1/8)
Calls for a 🇫🇷French #nuclear umbrella for Europe have multiplied in recent months. While this is not a feasible idea, Paris could take steps to strengthen Europe’s deterrence, assess #STAND’s @lydiawachs & @liviuhorovitz in a new SWP Comment (GER).(2/8)bit.ly/3HhxQLC
The 🇺🇸Biden admin found 🇷🇺Russia to be in noncompliance with its #NewSTART treaty obligation to facilitate inspections 👉bit.ly/3HPKOl4. See the full US report 👉bit.ly/3HtfQxL & the threads by @james_acton32 for background 👉 bit.ly/3X3t8XS.(3/8)
At peace and war, China’s #cyber activities alter its target’s actions with threats to punish unwanted behaviors and apply pressure to coerce. Insikt Group® analyzes the 2 elements of #weishe theory in its application against Taiwan and more. 1/5 Read: bit.ly/3VjLQd1
In weishe, coercion comprises two distinct theories of action to change the behavior of a target: #Deterrence and #Compellence. Deterrence uses the threat of punishment to prevent undesirable actions, and compellence wields punishment to motivate desirable behavior. 2/5
An instance of cyber coercion might be the #defacement attack on public TV screens in #Taiwan in response to the Taiwan visit of the US Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi in August 2022. 3/5
🪖We have had a great opportunity to speak with @benedettabertiw about #NATO-Ukraine cooperation and climate implications for security.
Photo credit @TEDTalks
More in 🧵 (1/10)
Photo credit @TEDTalks
More in 🧵 (1/10)
About🇷🇺🇺🇦war
We’re living in a world of sovereignty, territorial integrity, the right of each and every country to choose their own alliances, freely conducted foreign policy — these are central rights.The latest one has been violated in Ukraine because of Russia’s actions.(2/10)
We’re living in a world of sovereignty, territorial integrity, the right of each and every country to choose their own alliances, freely conducted foreign policy — these are central rights.The latest one has been violated in Ukraine because of Russia’s actions.(2/10)
🇷🇺🇺🇦 war threatens rules-based🌏order and also brings deep instability in the #EuroAtlantic space.That is a great concern of @NATO.That’s one of the reasons why the allies so strongly support🇺🇦right to self-defense in calling 🇷🇺to stop this horrific war. (3/10)
THINKING CHALLENGE: From your common sense, why do people break the law?
Join me at Tuesday, 9/12, 10:30am cst, today to discuss!
#CRJ105 #MoraineValley
Join me at Tuesday, 9/12, 10:30am cst, today to discuss!
#CRJ105 #MoraineValley
Good morning friends, thank you for joining me to discuss the history of Criminology, covering Chapter 03.
#HistoryOfCriminology #CRJ105 #Criminology
#HistoryOfCriminology #CRJ105 #Criminology
Before we get started with Unit 02, I wanted to check in how the course is progressing for you so far. Now that we've got one unit under our belt, how is online learning treating you?
#CRJ105 #CRJ105CourseSurvey
#CRJ105 #CRJ105CourseSurvey
Chinese military's Eastern Command announces military drills around Taiwan will continue indefinitely (for now).
One possible explanation is "faux Escalate to Deescalate".
i.e. Feign strength, to provide cover for gradual 'redirection' away from the theater, i.e. deescalate. /1
One possible explanation is "faux Escalate to Deescalate".
i.e. Feign strength, to provide cover for gradual 'redirection' away from the theater, i.e. deescalate. /1
China's military drills has potentially generated 2 effects that Beijing dislikes:
1. 'Broken window effect':
Other countries are considering more high level visits to Taiwan -- in a show of solidarity, e.g. Lithuania. See:
1. 'Broken window effect':
Other countries are considering more high level visits to Taiwan -- in a show of solidarity, e.g. Lithuania. See:
2. 'Catfish effect':
Even multilateral vehicles like @ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting - which had largely refrained from critical commentaries on China-Taiwan relations - was spurred into issuing a statement of concern on 8/3, and further 'internationalizes' Taiwan issue. /3
Even multilateral vehicles like @ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting - which had largely refrained from critical commentaries on China-Taiwan relations - was spurred into issuing a statement of concern on 8/3, and further 'internationalizes' Taiwan issue. /3
"The only thing standing between the perpetrators of Butcha, Borodyanka, Mariupol and their potential future victims at this moment are the Armed Forces of Ukraine." A reply to all who confuse peace with subjugation of #Ukraine. Furious #Thread /1
spiegel.de/kultur/welche-…
spiegel.de/kultur/welche-…
28 German academics & artists write an Open Letter to Chancellor Scholz.
In a nutshell: Because we fear nuclear war, Ukraine unfortunately must surrender. Supplying her with weapons is plunging us all into disaster! - An intellectual + political revelation. /2
In a nutshell: Because we fear nuclear war, Ukraine unfortunately must surrender. Supplying her with weapons is plunging us all into disaster! - An intellectual + political revelation. /2
Starting with what? With the cynicism of accusing the Ukrainian government and all who support it in its military resistance against Russia of being responsible for the suffering of Ukrainian civilians? Classic perpetrator-victim reversal. /3
Delighted to publish this paper last week with the @HybridCoE, pretentiously titled: ‘Deterring hybrid threats: Towards a fifth wave of deterrence theory and practice’.
🧵below on the key points (w/pics!). hybridcoe.fi/publications/h…
#deterrence #hybridthreats #grayzone #strategy
🧵below on the key points (w/pics!). hybridcoe.fi/publications/h…
#deterrence #hybridthreats #grayzone #strategy
(1/11) Big picture, the paper does 2 things:
1⃣ Looks again at deterrence theory & practice to restore the foundations eroded by hybrid threats.
2⃣ Looks to the future of hybrid threats & new horizons in deterrence – incl prospect of a post-modern, 'fifth wave' of deterrence.
1⃣ Looks again at deterrence theory & practice to restore the foundations eroded by hybrid threats.
2⃣ Looks to the future of hybrid threats & new horizons in deterrence – incl prospect of a post-modern, 'fifth wave' of deterrence.
(2/11) To details. 1st, obligatory definitional masochism. What are hybrid threats? IMO, combining modern tools of statecraft to seek gains while avoiding reprisal,⬇️threshold of armed attack. (I steer clear of definitional weeds…😬) For more see: ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Doc…
As tonight’s unfolding #Ukraine tragedy underscores only too starkly—
—the @POTUS @JoeBiden Administration MUST PRESERVE (extended)#DETERRENCE 100% in the forthcoming #Nuclear Posture Review/#NPR.
Must avoid not only “#NoFirstUse/#NFU”—BUT ALSO “#SolePurpose”—road to perdition!
—the @POTUS @JoeBiden Administration MUST PRESERVE (extended)#DETERRENCE 100% in the forthcoming #Nuclear Posture Review/#NPR.
Must avoid not only “#NoFirstUse/#NFU”—BUT ALSO “#SolePurpose”—road to perdition!
Virtue signaling is no substitute for #deterrence signaling!
The #NPR must avoid not only widely-dismissed “#NoFirstUse” (#NFU) language, but also the dangerous concept of “#SolePurpose.”
Text/graphics from @DeptofDefense 2021 #China #Military Power Report show key reasons why.
The #NPR must avoid not only widely-dismissed “#NoFirstUse” (#NFU) language, but also the dangerous concept of “#SolePurpose.”
Text/graphics from @DeptofDefense 2021 #China #Military Power Report show key reasons why.
“#SolePurpose” = unacceptably erosive/destabilizing, not a no-or-low-cost #VirtueSignaling sop to #ArmsControl idealism.
Would reduce credibility/#deterrent of @POTUS’s potential counters to massive #conventional offensives by #Russia/#China.
Tragic reminder tonight in #Ukraine
Would reduce credibility/#deterrent of @POTUS’s potential counters to massive #conventional offensives by #Russia/#China.
Tragic reminder tonight in #Ukraine
New US #IndoPacific #Strategy!
Read full text here: whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
"The #PRC..pursues a sphere of influence in the Indo-#Pacific & seeks to become the world’s most influential power. The PRC’s coercion & aggression spans the globe, but..is most acute in..Indo-Pacific."
Read full text here: whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
"The #PRC..pursues a sphere of influence in the Indo-#Pacific & seeks to become the world’s most influential power. The PRC’s coercion & aggression spans the globe, but..is most acute in..Indo-Pacific."
#INDOPACIFIC: The Region by the #s
♦ #POPULATION: Over half the world’s people, including 58% of youth
♦ #ECONOMY: 60% of global GDP
♦ #GROWTH: 2/3 of global economic growth
♦ #GEOGRAPHY: 65% of the world’s oceans &🌊 25% of its land
>#STRATEGY: whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
♦ #POPULATION: Over half the world’s people, including 58% of youth
♦ #ECONOMY: 60% of global GDP
♦ #GROWTH: 2/3 of global economic growth
♦ #GEOGRAPHY: 65% of the world’s oceans &🌊 25% of its land
>#STRATEGY: whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
From the new U.S. #IndoPacific #Strategy:
"The United States is the leading international provider
of education to students from the Indo-#Pacific—nearly 68% of international students studying in the United States hail from the region..."
Read full text: whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
"The United States is the leading international provider
of education to students from the Indo-#Pacific—nearly 68% of international students studying in the United States hail from the region..."
Read full text: whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
THINKING CHALLENGE: From your common sense, why do people break the law?
Join me at 10:30am, cst, today to discuss!
#CRJ105 #MoraineValley
Join me at 10:30am, cst, today to discuss!
#CRJ105 #MoraineValley
Good morning friends, thank you for joining me to discuss the history of Criminology, covering Chapter 03.
#HistoryOfCriminology #CRJ105 #Criminology
#HistoryOfCriminology #CRJ105 #Criminology
Before we get started with Unit 02, I wanted to check in how the course is progressing for you so far. Now that we've got one unit under our belt, how is online learning treating you?
#CRJ105 #CRJ105CourseSurvey
#CRJ105 #CRJ105CourseSurvey
The #EU has been sidelined in this crisis by design. Military security dialogue with #Russia remains outsourced to #NATO/#OSCE or takes place bilaterally. How could the EU contribute to managing military security beyond #deterrence? Some ideas 1/6
feps-europe.eu/component/atta…
feps-europe.eu/component/atta…
2/6 The EU should establish a permanent expert dialogue with 🇷🇺on military security issues. Existing bilateral formats (Germany, France, Netherlands etc.) risk undermining unity. Possible starting point: Mil-to-mil dialogue between @ChairmanEUMC and the Chief of the Russian GS.
3/6 The EU should invest in independent capabilities for monitoring, analysing and reducing military escalation risks. A European Centre for Crisis Prevention and Risk Reduction would recognise the need for more co-ordination and data sharing.
#Read this new #Report while there’s still time to act!
bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…
“US-#China Competition Enters the Decade of Max Danger: #Policy Ideas to Avoid Losing the 2020s”
My latest with Gabe Collins @BakerInstitute!
@RiceUniversity
@RiceUNews
@CES_Baker_Inst
#Xi
#Taiwan
bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…
“US-#China Competition Enters the Decade of Max Danger: #Policy Ideas to Avoid Losing the 2020s”
My latest with Gabe Collins @BakerInstitute!
@RiceUniversity
@RiceUNews
@CES_Baker_Inst
#Xi
#Taiwan
As #PRC/#CCP power peaks over this decade, #Xi may seek #Taiwan as historic prize.
To protect their security & rules-based order, US/Allies must mobilize immediately to deter aggression.
The mission is vital, the stakes are high, & the clock is ticking.
bit.ly/PLA2027
To protect their security & rules-based order, US/Allies must mobilize immediately to deter aggression.
The mission is vital, the stakes are high, & the clock is ticking.
bit.ly/PLA2027
US/Allies/#Taiwan now face “#DecadeOfDanger” w/ peaking #Xi/#CCP/#PRC as #China has extreme version of “S-Curved #slowdown.”
Xi’s risk acceptance will likely be amplified by his track record of largely-uncountered revisionist actions vs. neighbors & RBO.
bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…
Xi’s risk acceptance will likely be amplified by his track record of largely-uncountered revisionist actions vs. neighbors & RBO.
bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…
I hope you'll join me at 2pm to look at Juvenile Corrections
THINKING CHALLENGE: Does the Juvenile Justice System have a responsibility to keep kids out of a punitive system?
#CRJ107 #CommunityBasedCorrections
THINKING CHALLENGE: Does the Juvenile Justice System have a responsibility to keep kids out of a punitive system?
#CRJ107 #CommunityBasedCorrections
Let's start by testing our knowledge of teens today. Do you believe we can better understand age groups by generational differences?
#CRJ107 #CommunityBasedCorrections
#CRJ107 #CommunityBasedCorrections
188/ns The urgent need for an Indian (conventionally armed) #Rocket #Force & associated #ISR to deter a decapitating strike by #PLARF 🧵
189/ns Step by step build up, to #Theaterization 🧵
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 10/01/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/10/01/dai…
Exploring #ExtremeWeather: The Texas Freeze
developer.twitter.com/en/use-cases/b…
#SocialMedia #twitter #information #conversations #experiences #LessonsLearned
developer.twitter.com/en/use-cases/b…
#SocialMedia #twitter #information #conversations #experiences #LessonsLearned
Governments failing to heed ‘paradigm change’ call on ventilation to slow COVID-19 spread, experts say
abc.net.au/news/2021-09-2…
#australia #LegalStandards #IndoorAirQuality #VentilationSystems #AirFilters #schools
abc.net.au/news/2021-09-2…
#australia #LegalStandards #IndoorAirQuality #VentilationSystems #AirFilters #schools
THINKING CHALLENGE: From your common sense, why do people break the law?
Join me at 1pm, cst, today to discuss!
#CRJ105 #MoraineValley
Join me at 1pm, cst, today to discuss!
#CRJ105 #MoraineValley
Good afternoon friends, thank you for joining me to discuss the history of Criminology, covering Chapter 03.
#HistoryOfCriminology #CRJ105 #Criminology
#HistoryOfCriminology #CRJ105 #Criminology
Before we get started with Unit 02, I wanted to check in how the course is progressing for you so far. Now that we've got one unit under our belt, how is online learning treating you?
#CRJ105 #CRJ105CourseSurvey
#CRJ105 #CRJ105CourseSurvey
In my judgement, the political correction started 3-6 months ago, so it's just a matter of spelling it out in diplomatic language, to the US Govt and Congress!
2/indus #PM's message is very clear: We can discuss shared values, including differences & nuances as friends/equals; But just as you resent foreign interference in your democratic processes, we resent foreign interference even more, because of our colonial history.
3/indus Greater effort to understand each other's views on issues on which there is a lot of ideological-political differences within each democracy (rather than to lecture from one perspective in one country to a different perspective in the other country)? 🧐🤔
Former 🇩🇪 Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer has published a highly problematic op-ed in @china_table.
Based on a critique of a supposedly 🇺🇸 initiated Cold War 2.0 - more about this later - he makes the case for unconditional 🇨🇳 engagement.
A short 🧵/1 table.media/china/standpun…
Based on a critique of a supposedly 🇺🇸 initiated Cold War 2.0 - more about this later - he makes the case for unconditional 🇨🇳 engagement.
A short 🧵/1 table.media/china/standpun…
Fischer's analogy to Cold War 1.0 is a red herring. The threat which the Chinese Communist Party poses to peace within and outside 🇨🇳 can not be directly compared to the former USSR. It is a different kettle of fish. What I find worrisome is how Fischer misrepresents the CCP /2
Fischer describes 🇨🇳 as "a market economy under Leninist auspices". This "hybrid character" supposedly explains China's "success story" and its ability to overtake the 🇺🇸 technologically and economically by 2030. The many costs of China's political system do not feature at all /3
Revealing #testimony from @INDOPACOM Commander #Admiral Phil #Davidson @SASCDems/@SASCGOP @HASCDemocrats/@HASCRepublicans!
Ideally, read 41 pp. “US #IndoPacific Command Posture”:
armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…
No time? See my excerpts: bit.ly/AdmiralDavidson
andrewerickson.com/2021/03/testim…
Ideally, read 41 pp. “US #IndoPacific Command Posture”:
armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…
No time? See my excerpts: bit.ly/AdmiralDavidson
andrewerickson.com/2021/03/testim…
"The greatest danger for the United States in this competition is the erosion of conventional deterrence..Absent a convincing deterrent, the [PRC] will be emboldened to take action to undermine the rules-based international order"
armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…
bit.ly/AdmiralDavidson
armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…
bit.ly/AdmiralDavidson
ADM Davidson:
"In September 2020, #Cambodia razed a #US-built facility on #Ream Naval Base that served as the headquarters for the National Committee on Maritime Security, reportedly in order to make way for a #PRC #naval #base."
armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/21-03…
bit.ly/AdmiralDavidson
"In September 2020, #Cambodia razed a #US-built facility on #Ream Naval Base that served as the headquarters for the National Committee on Maritime Security, reportedly in order to make way for a #PRC #naval #base."
armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/21-03…
bit.ly/AdmiralDavidson
#Hypothesis: Agreement to disengage in Pangong lake was reached in Sept-oct, but #CCP11 backtracked in Oct/nov on expectation of Biden win! Blinken's 6th Feb call to Yang Xi confirmed firm US policy towards China. #Xi gave approval for implantation of Pangong agreement thereafter
2/hy #CCPPLA will not abandon its #Creeping #Acquisition policy on India-Tibet border till there is a border settlement, or we establish #Hard #Deterrence viz #PLA, or both! Indian Nat security apparatus is working on this premise; Post-Galwan,political estblishment is on board!
3/hy Dis-engaging tanks & Heavy armor, from battle field positions, is the first step!
Do y’all see why Russia, Steve Bannon and Trump targeted Black people with their disinfo campaigns? Because we can swing elections. #Deterrence
#US #TriService #MARITIME #STRATEGY!
Focus on #China & #Russia = 2 most significant geopol threats to global peace & prosperity—
Clear stakes:
"China has implemented a strategy & revisionist approach that aims at the heart of the US’ #maritime power."
media.defense.gov/2020/Dec/17/20…
Focus on #China & #Russia = 2 most significant geopol threats to global peace & prosperity—
Clear stakes:
"China has implemented a strategy & revisionist approach that aims at the heart of the US’ #maritime power."
media.defense.gov/2020/Dec/17/20…
"... our three #Sea Services have watched with alarm the growing #naval #power of the People’s Republic of #China & the increasingly aggressive behavior of the Russian Federation.
Our globally deployed naval forces interact w/ #Chinese & #Russian #warships & #aircraft daily."
Our globally deployed naval forces interact w/ #Chinese & #Russian #warships & #aircraft daily."
"We witness firsthand their increasing sophistication and growing aggressiveness. ... The People’s Republic of #China represents the most pressing, long-term strategic threat."
media.defense.gov/2020/Dec/17/20…
media.defense.gov/2020/Dec/17/20…
