Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #deficits
Most recents (15)
🧵The #fiscalconservativemyths around good government being dependent on #balancedbudgets and ridiculous comparisons of government budgets to household budgets is about to arise yet again. Let's check these myths out.
Do economists believe that the budget should be balanced each fiscal year? No, a budget should be balanced only on average; it can be in a deficit during a recession and offset by surpluses when the economy is doing well.
A balanced budget refers to total budget expenditure being equal to the total budget receipts. Adam Smith and other classical economists advocated the concept of balanced budget. They claimed a balanced budget is the best since it has a neutral effect on the economy.
This is a facile narrative that Poilievre keeps insisting, preferring an austerity budget that will only make the vulnerable even more precarious without government supports ... none of this will affect housing prices, because that is driven by a lack of supply
1/2 Conservatives advocate #taxcuts that fuel #inflation, reduced govt spending, free markets, #deregulation, #privatization, free trade, and minimal government debt. Those #regressiveeconomicpolicies instituted by the Harper govt led to #deficits
2/2 elimination and reduction of #environmentalprotectionregulations and #consumerprotectionregulations.
⭐️#US Budget 2024 FY
Between 2024 and 2033, spending would total $82.2 trillion (24.8 percent of #GDP), revenue would total $65.2 trillion (19.7 percent of GDP), and budget #deficits would total $17.1 trillion (5.1 percent of GDP)
And the #Ukraine, 51st State of US- $ 6 Billion
Between 2024 and 2033, spending would total $82.2 trillion (24.8 percent of #GDP), revenue would total $65.2 trillion (19.7 percent of GDP), and budget #deficits would total $17.1 trillion (5.1 percent of GDP)
And the #Ukraine, 51st State of US- $ 6 Billion
1. The deficit would rise from $1.4 trillion (5.5 percent of GDP) in FY 2022 to $1.6 trillion (6.0 percent of GDP) in 2023 and to $1.8 trillion (6.8 percent of GDP) in 2024.
#USA #budget2024
whitehouse.gov/omb/briefing-r…
#USA #budget2024
whitehouse.gov/omb/briefing-r…
2. The President's budget is built based off OMB's ten-year economic forecast, which is somewhat rosier than other forecasts. Under the budget, OMB projects 4.3 percent Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in calendar year (CY) 2023, /n
🚨NEW🚨 Under alternative, fiscally-irresponsible scenarios based on @USCBO's baseline – including likely policy extensions and more deficit-financed actions – #deficits could surpass $𝟯 𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 and #debt could reach 𝟭𝟮𝟱% of GDP by 2032.
➡️crfb.org/blogs/debt-cou….
➡️crfb.org/blogs/debt-cou….
➡️Last week, @USCBO projected that debt will reach a record 110% of GDP and deficits will reach $2.3 trillion by 2032.⤵️
But the baseline is based on current law, and ignores future legislation, administrative actions and temporary policy extensions.
But the baseline is based on current law, and ignores future legislation, administrative actions and temporary policy extensions.
➡️We've mapped debt, deficits & interest payments based on two alternative, more realistic scenarios:
➤With extensions of temporary policies & with spending growing faster than inflation;
➤With the above extensions, plus other debt-financed legislative & administrative actions.
➤With extensions of temporary policies & with spending growing faster than inflation;
➤With the above extensions, plus other debt-financed legislative & administrative actions.
Super excited to see our paper on #Covid19 #Fiscal Support and its Effectiveness, with Alexander Chudik @DallasFed & @mraissi80 @IMFNews, out in Economics Letters. You can read it (free access) from here: authors.elsevier.com/c/1dDlMbZedt0om #TGVAR 1/n
With new variants/waves & reimposition of restrictions in some regions, governments around the world are calling for a careful assessment of the effectiveness of the adopted #Covid19 #fiscal measures before they embark on further easing or tailoring of measures 2/n
The #Covid19 pandemic led to a sharp tightening of global #financial conditions at the acute phase of the crisis and has inflicted large economic losses across the world (see Figure below) ... 3/n
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 01/29/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/01/29/dai…
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 01/22/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/01/22/dai…
Michael Pettis on Twitter and ThreadReader
Dear Joe Biden, deficits still matter
ft.com/content/d49b53…
#deficits #stimulus #volatility #uncertainty #productivity
Dear Joe Biden, deficits still matter
ft.com/content/d49b53…
#deficits #stimulus #volatility #uncertainty #productivity
The turn of the calendar year invites the temptation to prognosticate regarding the course of the year ahead for the #economy and for #markets, and not being immune to that impulse, here are our views on the “11 themes to consider as we look toward 2021:” bit.ly/386mb0r
In preview, one key theme is that 2021’s nominal #GDP growth is likely to surprise many skeptics with its strength. The sources of upside surprise can be found in: 1) the new #fiscal #stimulus combined with structural budget #deficits…
And in 2) the @federalreserve’s ongoing asset purchases and 3) the impressive #economic momentum that is still broadly underestimated, as a post-election, and #pandemic-recovering world can catalyze 2020/21’s monetized #stimulus (more than 15% of GDP) into impressive NGDP growth.
We all need to debunk the myth that Republicans are better for the economy.
It's utterly false.
They are only better for the "economy of billionaires' wallets".
1/4
It's utterly false.
They are only better for the "economy of billionaires' wallets".
1/4
Democrats are better on #Jobs
Last 5 presidential terms:
Democrats: 37.3 million jobs
Republicans: 25.2 million jobs
[Carter, Clinton, & Obama vs. Reagan, Bush Sr., & Bush Jr.]
(not even counting Trump's -4.7 million jobs that'd make it 20.5)
howmuch.net/articles/jobs-…
2/4
Last 5 presidential terms:
Democrats: 37.3 million jobs
Republicans: 25.2 million jobs
[Carter, Clinton, & Obama vs. Reagan, Bush Sr., & Bush Jr.]
(not even counting Trump's -4.7 million jobs that'd make it 20.5)
howmuch.net/articles/jobs-…
2/4
Many #investors will be focusing on the #PresidentialDebates, which begin tonight, but while there are quite meaningful #policy differences between the parties, ongoing structural #deficits are likely to exist regardless of who wins in November.
Further, to the extent that these #deficits are #monetized by the @federalreserve, then significant increases in #money supply could drive nominal #GDP growth for a time, even in the absence of new fiscal initiatives.
Also, we’re skeptical of the arguments that fret over a #FiscalCliff, since the @USCBO estimates that even with no further #stimulus measures, the U.S. will have a #deficit of 8.5% of #GDP for fiscal 2021.
The CBO has dropped the '2020 long-term budget outlook' - It's not pretty...cbo.gov/system/files/2… #US #USeconomy #Debt #FiscalMonetaryMelt #Macro #Risk Some take aways...(1/5)
The #deficit #myth #deficitmyth by @StephanieKelton #MMT modern monetary theory
Myth N. 1: The #state should budget like a #household
#RealityCheck : unlike a household, a #SovereignNation, which owns its national #centralbank, issues the #currency it spends
Myth N. 1: The #state should budget like a #household
#RealityCheck : unlike a household, a #SovereignNation, which owns its national #centralbank, issues the #currency it spends
Myth N. 2: #deficit is evidence of #overspending
#RealityCheck: look to #inflation for evidence of over spending
#RealityCheck: look to #inflation for evidence of over spending
The purpose of #taxes is not to pay for #government expenditures but to help rebalancing the #wealth distribution #MMT
Three CF40 experts analyze China’s #Q1 economic data from various perspectives and explain the nature of some policy measures that have been taken to deal with the COVID-19 outbreak. mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2z2pvQqtIa4J…
Xu Xianchun: Q1 data show that the economic impact of #COVID-19 far exceeded that of the 1998 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 global financial #crisis.
Liu Yuanchun: five keywords to understand the next stage of Chinese economy are mega pandemic, China’s solution, periodical achievements, super pressure and policy reorientation.
1/6 As Powell puts in his recent speech, we are “in a world of slow global growth, low inflation, and low interest rates…" and "fac[ing] heightened risks of lengthy, difficult-to-escape periods in which our policy interest rate is pinned near zero.”
2/6 CF40 member Miao Yanliang mentioned in his book that, under a #fiscal policy framework, the #demographic change and pessimistic anticipation collectively contribute to the world characterized by LOW #inflation, LOW #growth and LOW interest rate.
mp.weixin.qq.com/s/6q8SJ9RHmrKh…
mp.weixin.qq.com/s/6q8SJ9RHmrKh…
3/6 After the global financial #crisis in 2008, major developed countries faced pressure to reduce #deficits, #debt, and private sector #deleveraging. In this context, the macro-policy has shifted from the former #monetary dominance to #fiscal dominance. #macroeconomics
#LoveLettersToAlberta This is from the heart to #Alberta, not a journalist, so it's kinda sloppy. I'm disabled so I have lots of time to research. I'm white (an accident of birth, so I'm not special) and 6th generation Canadian. 1
Dear Alberta, 350,000 families in #Ontario whose breadwinner lost their well-paying jobs in manufacturing know how you feel with the energy business going through rough times. Hubby was a victim. 2
Some jobs went to the USA to states where they have "Right To Work for Peanuts". Some went to little brown people who aren't immigrants. The jobs went to their country. 3
