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#ExtremeWeather #Warning #SouthEastAfrica
With formation of Tropical Storm #Emnati overnight and a high confidence forecast for the next five days. We need to also pay attention to potential impacts in Southern Africa, especially in the East.
Latest GFS 10 day rain sim below.
With formation of Tropical Storm #Emnati overnight and a high confidence forecast for the next five days. We need to also pay attention to potential impacts in Southern Africa, especially in the East.
Latest GFS 10 day rain sim below.
While Tropical Storm #Dumako has lost its JTWC designation the threat it poses to Mozambique is not over - we just won't have the same level of data to watch it as it crosses the Mozambique Channel.
The current spaghetti analysis from ECMWF suggests it won't strengthen.
The current spaghetti analysis from ECMWF suggests it won't strengthen.
However in the rainfall forecast we can see that heavy rain is forecast for Southern Mozambique and across the the continent over the next 10 days. This animation is from earlier today before #Dumako was taken off the monitoring list.
#ExtremeWeather TS #Emnati Update:
After a night of explosive convection and organisation What was #96s #Invest96s or #TD5 is now #TSEmnati - and forecast to become - like #Batsirai an Intense Tropical Cyclone on Sunday packing Cat3 Hurricane intensity winds of 185kmh.
After a night of explosive convection and organisation What was #96s #Invest96s or #TD5 is now #TSEmnati - and forecast to become - like #Batsirai an Intense Tropical Cyclone on Sunday packing Cat3 Hurricane intensity winds of 185kmh.
And the good news is that JTWC - [metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html… website seems to be back online. They were missed. Here is the latest official track forecast issued by JTWC Pearl Harbour this morning at 3:00Z (UTC). This storm can now be considered to be a major threat to Madagascar.
The forecast track is almost identical to that of #Batsirai, which has left over 120 Malagasy dead, destroyed and damaged 10s of thousands of homes and buildings. Flooded areas have not even drained yet.
This #ExtremeWeather thread on #Invest96s in the Indian Ocean is a weird one.
It began with apparent cancellation of the designation of two colliding tropical disturbances by the #JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) last night, followed by its re-designation this afternoon.
It began with apparent cancellation of the designation of two colliding tropical disturbances by the #JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) last night, followed by its re-designation this afternoon.
The re-designation wasn't by JTWC - which is having website outage issues - but rather by the RSMC, the local meteorological authorities in the Reunion & @meteofrance
"***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION"
"***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION"
If #Invest96s becomes a cyclone and intensifies, models indicate it will become the fourth cyclone to strike Madagascar in two months - possibly as the 2nd major cyclone.
It would follow #StormAna #Batsirai & #Dumako which made landfall in the north of Madagascar today.
It would follow #StormAna #Batsirai & #Dumako which made landfall in the north of Madagascar today.
#ExtremeWeather Alert Thread
Cyclone Batsirai is heading towards Madagascar, hot on the heels of Storm Ana which has brought fatal flooding and massive damage to both Madagascar and SE Africa, Mozambique - Malawi & Zimbabwe.
6 hour animation of the storm this morning.
Cyclone Batsirai is heading towards Madagascar, hot on the heels of Storm Ana which has brought fatal flooding and massive damage to both Madagascar and SE Africa, Mozambique - Malawi & Zimbabwe.
6 hour animation of the storm this morning.
Cyclone #Batsirai is a much more intense storm than Storm Ana, and at present nearly all simulation runs from both the European and US models show a landfall on the East Coast of Madagascar in 4-5 days.
The @USNavy's #JTWC website (metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html) is currently inaccessible from what I can see (possibly due to certificate errors) but this graphic from France Meteo appears to be the current official forecast for #Batsirai.
It never rains and then it pours and pours and pours and pours.
#ExtremeWeather event with multiple cyclonic storms hits drought stricken Madagascar.
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#ExtremeWeather event with multiple cyclonic storms hits drought stricken Madagascar.
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This rainfall forecast for Madagascar on Friday (10 days) was/is seriously dire. A waterlogged South Indian Ocean atmosphere has been forecast for some time to develop multiple tropical storms. And on Friday they arrived.
So far floods have produced rains killing at least 10 people in the Capital City, Antananarivo [Location: goo.gl/maps/NipR18bSo…] hahttps://www.africanews.com/2022/01/18/10-killed-by-floods-in-madagascar/
At 587k km2 Madagascar is larger than France with a pop. of 28 million.
At 587k km2 Madagascar is larger than France with a pop. of 28 million.
