Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #96s
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#ExtremeWeather TS #Emnati Update:
After a night of explosive convection and organisation What was #96s #Invest96s or #TD5 is now #TSEmnati - and forecast to become - like #Batsirai an Intense Tropical Cyclone on Sunday packing Cat3 Hurricane intensity winds of 185kmh.
After a night of explosive convection and organisation What was #96s #Invest96s or #TD5 is now #TSEmnati - and forecast to become - like #Batsirai an Intense Tropical Cyclone on Sunday packing Cat3 Hurricane intensity winds of 185kmh.
And the good news is that JTWC - [metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html… website seems to be back online. They were missed. Here is the latest official track forecast issued by JTWC Pearl Harbour this morning at 3:00Z (UTC). This storm can now be considered to be a major threat to Madagascar. 
The forecast track is almost identical to that of #Batsirai, which has left over 120 Malagasy dead, destroyed and damaged 10s of thousands of homes and buildings. Flooded areas have not even drained yet.
#ExtremeWeather Update Thread: Madagascar #Invest96S
The JTWC is now saying there is a "High" probability of #Invest96S will become a TC within the next 24 hours.
The JTWC @USNavy @USNRL website [Here: metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html] remains inaccessible.
The JTWC is now saying there is a "High" probability of #Invest96S will become a TC within the next 24 hours.
The JTWC @USNavy @USNRL website [Here: metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html] remains inaccessible.
@USNavy @USNRL While we do not have a JTWC track forecast yet, we do have a new forecast. the relevant part for #96s is in the 2nd image here and contains reasoning as to why:
"THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH."
"THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH."
Here's a current 24h animation of the storm, at the end you see the center of circulation is fully exposed. The storm is moving fairly fast and is being blown westwards by winds which are creating a lot of shear - which prevents development.
