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Gestern kam die neue Siebenmonats-Vorhersage des #ECMWF raus, es wird nach deren Berechnung nun mit Ausnahme des Julis und des Nordostens ein eher normal beregneter Sommer erwartet.
Die Vorhersagen für Mai-August. Bitte beachten Sie die Legende um zu verstehen, was Sie sehen.
Die Vorhersagen für Mai-August. Bitte beachten Sie die Legende um zu verstehen, was Sie sehen.
Alle anderen Karten und Vorhersagen zum Thema gibts wie immer in unserem Abobereich. Wenn Sie auch eins wollen, hat viele Vorteile:
kachelmannwetter.com/de/info/werbun…
kachelmannwetter.com/de/info/werbun…
Noch ein wichtiger Hinweis:
Falls es keinen Dürresommer gibt, bedeutet das nichts. Der Klimawandel ist trotzdem unaufhaltsam da. Er bedeutet, dass es immer wärmer wird. Er bedeutet nicht, dass es gesamthaft weniger regnet. Eine wärmere Welt wird eher eine nassere Welt sein.
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Falls es keinen Dürresommer gibt, bedeutet das nichts. Der Klimawandel ist trotzdem unaufhaltsam da. Er bedeutet, dass es immer wärmer wird. Er bedeutet nicht, dass es gesamthaft weniger regnet. Eine wärmere Welt wird eher eine nassere Welt sein.
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Thick smoke from intense active #wildfires in California, Nevada & Colorado in latest @CopernicusECMWF Atmosphere Monitoring Service @ECMWF aerosol optical depth forecast visualized by @windyforecast windy.com/-Aerosol-aod55… #LoyaltonFire #CameronPeakFire #CaliforniaFires #COFire
@CopernicusEU @CopernicusEMS @defis_eu @ESA_EO @eumetsat @Atmospheric_SAF @NASAEarth @NOAASatellites @AerosolWatch @wildfiretoday @IAWF @CalFireNews @NevadaFireInfo @RMACCinfo @NWSBoulder @NWSReno @mikeflannigan @weatherdak @Weather_West @DanLindsey77 @RSFireNerd @jmccarty_geo
#ECMWF extreme forecast index for temperature visualized by @windyforecast windy.com/-Extreme-forec… shows high temperatures continuing over SW USA for the next week #cawx #nvwx #cowx @FPappenberger
Another episode of high surface ozone #airpollution for NW Europe at the end of this week in #CopernicusAtmosphere Monitoring Service regional ensemble forecast, & #ECMWF extreme temperature forecast, visualized by @windyforecast windy.com/-Surface-Ozone… #airquality
#Airpollution EPSgrams from the #CopernicusAtmosphere Monitoring Service regional ensemble forecasts initialized att 00UTC on 5 August show increasing surface ozone for London, Amsterdam, Brussels & Paris macc-raq-op.meteo.fr/index.php
Okay so while all attention is on #Dorian, let's do a quick tour of the rest of the NATL tropics currently, because there are some other systems to talk about.
There is a weak llvl circ. n/ Cuba W of Dorian. It should move into the GoM where it has a chance to organize further.
There is a weak llvl circ. n/ Cuba W of Dorian. It should move into the GoM where it has a chance to organize further.
Next up is an African Easterly Wave that just emerged off the coast. The model guidance has been somewhat optimistic on this wave developing over the next 5-7 days, so worth keeping an eye on it. Aside from the Cape Verde islands, no threat to land.
Let's continue. There is yet another wave out in the middle of the NATL basin. Its battling some fairly strong westerly shear currently, but some models suggest it will get into a more favorable environment as it moves off to the northwest. #Bermuda should keep an eye on it.
1) Let's reason out why the #GFS tracks #Florence NE of the #ECWMF even now 3 days till verification? Look at the upper-level cirrus canopy b/c cloud-radiative feedback is important.
The #GFS has a thicker & more expansive cirrus plume NW of #Florence. What is its significance?
The #GFS has a thicker & more expansive cirrus plume NW of #Florence. What is its significance?
2) The cirrus in a #TCs outer core enables cloud-radiative feedback, w/ lw warming under & lw cooling above clouds.
Warming under clouds enhances convective activity in the outer core, broadening the tangential wind field.
Fig. from Fovell et al. (2016) :journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/AM…
Warming under clouds enhances convective activity in the outer core, broadening the tangential wind field.
Fig. from Fovell et al. (2016) :journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/AM…
3) What happens when you broaden the tangential wind field? You induce stronger "beta drift" which draws the TC further north & west due to advection of planetary vorticity around the TC field.
See Fiorino & Elseberry (1989):journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.117…
See Fiorino & Elseberry (1989):journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.117…
