Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #CrushTheCurve
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A brief update. 46 new #covid19sverige deaths and nearly 6000 new cases reported today, taking the total reported FHM death toll to 13088. All but 2 deaths are from the last 2 weeks. With lag considered, we are likely experiencing around 20-30 deaths/day at present. 
With lag considered, we are likely experiencing between 20-30 deaths/day at present.
Nationally we're averaging approximately 4000 new cases per day.
Quando percebemos que não havia plano para mitigação da #COVID, ganhámos coragem para desenhar um. Não passa de uma adaptação de docs internacionais a PT. Apesar das falhas, talvez possa ser útil como base de trabalho. Feedback muito bem vindo socialcomplexity.eu/uploads/Propos…
c/ @mjamorim1 @CyrilPedia @Dr_Lil @pddalm @pitabarros @leoap @JoanaLoA, propomos Testar, Rastrear, Isolar, Vacinar, Comunicar (I know, right...). A @mjamorim1 coordenou um enorme esforço para usar amostras de saliva e poder abrir escolas poupando crianças à zaragatoa (2/N)
Simulámos riscos de morte e crescem imenso com a idade, por isso propomos que esse deve ser sem dúvida o principal critério para vacinação (3/N)
The definition of ideology is that it is immune to empirical refutation. Facts literally bounce off it.
2/ Scientists who have to pay attention to how reality works & not ideological words are devastatingly clear as to which governments least followed science in dealing with COVID-19.
economist.com/graphic-detail…
economist.com/graphic-detail…
3/ Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, or find prettier ways to talk about it, or ignore it, doesn't go away. The 21stC is the Age of Consequences — of reality biting back, and we must learn to bend to its will. #viraltime #climatechange
Updated model (details below). Still to early to estimate the impact of school opening. Current IFR ~ 0.07%. Estimated 50000 (34000 - 72000) <65j and 360 (240 - 540) >65j currently infected, means we're catching between 5% to 10% of infections. #covid19be cc #natconcovid 1/
This model is now estimated exclusively on information from deaths, except for the last month where cases are used to better model recent trends. Despite low deaths the model estimates a high number of (young) infected people.
2/4
2/4
These are two more model inferences: evolution of test detection rate and total amount having been infected. 3/4
Een bescheiden toelichting waarom ik #CrushTheCurve onderschrijf. 👇
Er zijn vele niveaus om deze pandemie te begrijpen: medisch, psychosociaal, economisch, maar ook zuiver wiskundig. Ik merk in de afgelopen dagen enkele misverstanden in redeneringen over de wiskundige dynamica achter een epidemie. (1/n)
We leven nu nog een tijdje in een maatschappij waar periodes met een hoger reproductiegetal (R-waarde) worden afgewisseld met periodes met een lager reproductiegetal. (2/n)
Like most countries, NZ's plan was to gradually tighten controls as virus gained momentum. Then doctors saw WHO's Feb China report & said “we should do it in the reverse order & throw everything at the pandemic at the start”#CrushTheCurve
ht @yaneerbaryam newscientist.com/article/224685…
ht @yaneerbaryam newscientist.com/article/224685…
NZ #CrushTheCurve
1. Border controls & hotel quarantine of travellers to stop Covid from entering
2. Lockdown & physical distancing to stop community transmission
3. Using time gained by 1&2 to build #TestTraceIsolate state capacity & keep cases down nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/articl…
1. Border controls & hotel quarantine of travellers to stop Covid from entering
2. Lockdown & physical distancing to stop community transmission
3. Using time gained by 1&2 to build #TestTraceIsolate state capacity & keep cases down nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/articl…
New Zealand mitigated the economic ill-effects of elimination lockdown with $13 billion of income support (~$600 per person per week) & helped ppl in distress with social support. nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Er is nood aan een langetermijn plan dat perspectief biedt. Lockdowns zijn daar geen onderdeel van. 1/7
Er wordt vaak verwezen naar landen zoals China, Nieuw-Zeeland, Australië, Oostenrijk, Finland, etc... die erin leken in te slagen om broeihaarden op te sporen en te blussen. Maar die lijst wordt met de dag korter. Ook Australië kampt nu met een grote uitbraak. 2/7
#CrushTheCurve, met daarna een lokale Rt > 1 ("normaal leven"), en doorgedreven track & trace is een onstabiel evenwicht. Bij jongeren is dit virus meestal asymptomatisch, en superspreading kan ineens veel transmissies veroorzaken. 3/7
1/4 #COVID19 key concerns in 🇨🇦: today #GOC updated on the national epidemiology and the modelling work we are using to inform ongoing control of the COVID-19 epidemic in Canada.
canada.ca/content/dam/ph…
canada.ca/content/dam/ph…
2/4 The efforts of Canadians working collectively to #StayHomeIfSick and maintain practices like keeping 2 metres of #PhysicalDistancing from others and #HandWashing often has allowed us to #CrushtheCurve of #COVID19. #TeamCanada
3/4 To keep #COVID19 ↓ as 🇨🇦 reopens and restrictions relax, it is EVEN MORE IMPORTANT that Canadians continue with collective #publichealth practices + AVOID high risk settings to keep our daily number of contacts down.
1/6 #COVID19 key concerns in 🇨🇦: today I’m highlighting #TakeThatStep @CdnTogether mental wellness initiative where people of ALL AGES can find mental wellness resources wherever you are in 🇨🇦, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.
2/6 The ups & downs of living with #COVID19 can put our emotions on their own trajectory, from concern & cautious awareness to frustration & fatigue but also a sense of achievement #CrushtheCurve & hope. #COVIDCoping #WednesdayWellness
3/6 Given the level of uncertainty and changes in our lives over these past months, this range of emotions is to be expected. There have been losses that have caused grief and things we’ve prevailed against that give us hope. #TakeThatStep #MentalHealth
From today's protest in Stockholm against Sweden's corona policy 🌹❤👏👏👏
The difference in deaths of the Nordic countries:
Finland: 314
Danmark: 568
Norway: 236
Iceland: 10
Sweden: 4350
#vässamålet #bytstrateginu #Crushthecurve #saveswedencov19
The difference in deaths of the Nordic countries:
Finland: 314
Danmark: 568
Norway: 236
Iceland: 10
Sweden: 4350
#vässamålet #bytstrateginu #Crushthecurve #saveswedencov19
Deaths this week.
Finland: 7
Denmark: 8
Iceland: 0
Norway: 1
Sweden: 424
Finland: 7
Denmark: 8
Iceland: 0
Norway: 1
Sweden: 424
Photo from the protest a few days ago.
Next protest against Sweden's corona policy tomorrow Saturday at Sergels torg, Stockholm, kl 13 (1pm).
If you cannot be there you can help by Swisha till 0702184480 (for buying flowers). 🌹❤📢
facebook.com/events/s/prote…
#vässamålet #bytstrateginu #Crushthecurve #saveswedencov19
If you cannot be there you can help by Swisha till 0702184480 (for buying flowers). 🌹❤📢
facebook.com/events/s/prote…
#vässamålet #bytstrateginu #Crushthecurve #saveswedencov19
Anyone who wants to attend should wear face masks.
Last time CNN covered the protest.
edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2…
edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2…
1/3 Almost 11,000 #FluWatchers reporting this week. Keeping it steady 4 weeks in a row with only 0.2% reporting symptoms of cough and fever. #PhysicalDistancing #StayHomeSaveLives
2/3 Special shout out to communities with postal codes starting with K1S and K2J with over 100 #FluWatchers reporting this week! Can your community join this elite group? The more participants in your community, the more accurate the data.
3/3 Sign up and help Canada track #COVID19. Together we can #CrushTheCurve of this pandemic! bit.ly/3eeAamf
1/ Dear selfish *******, I see you out jogging, cycling & walking. I am very conscious of the 2 metre rule which is 6 ft for those of you who don’t know. We have been cocooning for weeks on end & I only began to be able to take my extremely vulnerable son out for walks last week.
2/ We haven’t gone out every day because some days are just too busy. I live in the Countryside beside the canal which is lovely. The path at the canal is probably just about 2m wide so even with the best will in the world it is impossible to pass people allowing the 2m distance.
3/ But at least some people try. I don’t even think it’s most people, maybe 50%. Then there’s the others who are too selfish to realise that there are people who are at risk of this virus. Some of those probably think that families like mine should just stay at home. #Covid19
1/4 #COVID19 key concerns in 🇨🇦: Daily case counts have been ↓ over the past couple weeks, with the number of cases reported last week 15% lower than the week prior. However, we still need to be cautious in our optimism!#PhysicalDistancing
2/4 Quebec & Ontario continue to report the bulk of new #COVID19 cases (~90%) and deaths (~95%) in Canada, but their daily case counts have also declined, by 6% and 10% respectively over the last week. #KeepItUp #TeamCanada
3/4 #COVID19 is a stealth virus that can spread before we know we have it – even as we get out more, we need to #StayApartTogether to keep ourselves, our families and all Canadians safe. #DoYourPart #ProtectTheVulnerable
Varhilan esiintymisen jäljiltä hallituksella taitaa olla jälleen selvennettävää. Ymmärtääkö hallitus itsekään valintojensa seurauksia, vai mistä näin räikeä ero viestinnässä johtuu? #koronavirus #koronafi
Enkä voi olla ainoa, jonka mielestä on eettisesti sangen arveluttavaa rakentaa vaarallisen tartuntataudin hillitsemisstrategiansa tietoisesti tartuntojen lisäämisen ympärille, kun vaihtoehtojakin on. #tukahduttaminen #crushthecurve
Ajatellaan hypoteettinen tilanne, missä Suomen tehohoitokapasiteetti olisi 10 00 potilasta. Olisiko silloinkin eettistä sallia teho-osastojen täyttyvän, jos tiedettäisiin, että esim 10% sinne joutuneista menehtyisivät?
1/3 This week, over 10,600 #FluWatchers reported, with only 24 (0.2%)reporting symptoms of cough and fever (similar to last week)#PhysicalDistancing #StayHomeIfSick
2/3 For the 1st time, NS made top 3 in Canada for the number of #FluWatchers participants (per 100,000 population). Help us get to 11,000 participants next week!
3/3 Sign up and help Canada track #COVID19. Together we can #CrushTheCurve of this pandemic! Thank you Canada 🇨🇦canada.ca/en/public-heal…
1/4 #COVID19 key concerns in 🇨🇦: As we move into social & economic recovery, there will be challenges and bumps in the road but let’s not forget we are #ApartNotAlone and there is help. #MentalHealthWeek #COVIDCoping ca.portal.gs
2/4 It’s #MentalHealthWeek and we can all use some good news. Today I’m sharing the good news stat that over 26,000 or 43% of all confirmed #COVID19 cases in Canada are now recovered from their illness! I wish them all good health!
3/4 We must continue to make our way carefully down the curve, remembering that the many of the #PublicHealth measures that helped us #PlanktheCurve will continue to serve us well as we work to #CrushtheCurve.
Kun epidemia voi seurata eksponentiaalista kasvua, voi se myös heiketä eksponentiaalisesti. Oheinen kuva ei ole tieteellisen tarkka, mutta osoittaa eksponenttifunktioiden voiman: R=0.9->0.8:aan lyhentää tartuntojen määrän putoamiseen 2300->100 vaadittua aikaa yli 50%! #koronafi
Kaaviota varten arvioin, että Suomessa on nyt n 2300 aktiivista (mahdollisesti tartuttavaa?) tapausta, ja että tartuttavuusluvulla R, 2 viikon päästä tartuttavia tapauksia olisi N(n-1)*R, missä N(n-1) on edellisen ajanhetken tartuttavien henkilöiden määrä.
Luvuista viis, pointti on siis, että näennäisesti pieni ero tartuttavuusluvussa aiheuttaa valtavan eron epidemian hiipumisen nopeudessa. Painetaan siis R nyt mahdollisimman alas, jotta tukahdutamme epidemian ripeästi! #crushthecurve #koronafi #koronavirus
1/5 #COVID19 key concerns in 🇨🇦: As we #PlankTheCurve, we’re still seeing worrisome transmission events. In addition to vulnerabilities in long-term care homes, we’re tackling spread in certain work settings & congregate housing.
2/5 #Nunavut reported a 1st case of #COVID19 & cases are ↑ in First Nations communities in several provinces. We must #ProtectTheVulnerable & ramp up #TestandTrace to find where chains of transmission are occurring.
3/5 Having learned hard lessons & suffered the heartache of #COVID19 in long-term care homes, we now face introductions/spread in certain work & congregate housing settings. We must act fast to prevent further tragedy. #CrushtheCurve
1/8 #COVID19 key concerns in 🇨🇦: outbreaks in vulnerable settings and underserved populations continue to drive the #epidemiology of COVID-19, reminding us of the critical importance of addressing inequities. #ProtecttheVulnerable
2/8 Warmer weather & longer days can make us feel a bit antsy, as we sympathise with the kids in the back seat who wearily ask – Are we there yet? Though we’re not quite, we are on the right track & getting closer all the time. #COVID19 #KeepItUp
3/8 #COVID19 has exposed the fragility of circumstances for some populations – especially those living in long-term care homes or group housing + those experiencing homelessness or vulnerable indigenous communities. #ProtecttheVulnerable
1/3 #COVID19 key concerns in 🇨🇦: in lieu of a daily in-person update to the media, I have issued a statement today on COVID-19 in Canada. canada.ca/en/public-heal…
2/3 The collective sacrifices of Canadians across 🇨🇦 to #FlattentheCurve are starting to pay off. Results are so far encouraging, but they don’t mean we can ease up yet. To keep on the best case-scenario trajectory, we need to sustain our best effort. #CrushtheCurve
3/3 If you or a loved one are struggling, there is help. A full range of supports and resources are available through the new Wellness Together Canada portal, available through Canada.ca/coronavirus or the Canada #COVID19 app.
#WeWillGetThroughThis #cavabienaller
#WeWillGetThroughThis #cavabienaller
Brexit formally occurred on Jan 31. People had voted for it to have borders with integrity, even if there was an economic cost. The Con Govt immediately had an opportunity to put this into practice: it actually made sense to tightly regulate our borders, with #coronavirusUK. 1/
So what happened after Jan 31? The Cons moved immediately in the OPPOSITE direction. They refused adamantly to impose any border controls, and let flight after flight after flight in, carrying #coronavirus into the UK. Johnson gave this speech on Feb 3: gov.uk/government/spe…
The speech is astounding, the way it’s been ignored by the MSM v. revealing. In it, the PM insists the UK will remain open for business during the coming pandemic, no matter what the cost.
I repeat my key pt: this was the opposite of what one might expect from a Brexit Govt. 3/
I repeat my key pt: this was the opposite of what one might expect from a Brexit Govt. 3/
1/4 #COVID19 key concerns in 🇨🇦: Unfortunately, outbreaks in Long Term Care facilities continue to drive the #epidemiology of #COVID19 in Canada. In addition, vulnerable communities, including First Nations and Inuit communities, continue to be affected. #StayatHome
2/4 We need to do all that we can to stop #COVID19 introductions into long term care and other high-risk settings. Cases can quickly accelerate into large outbreaks with devastating consequences – we must address vulnerabilities! #ProtecttheVulnerable #OlderAdults
3/4 To raise awareness and protect First Nations, Inuit and Métis individuals and communities #COVID19 resources have been created in #Indigenous languages. Find more information and resources here: bit.ly/3aJH5SF
1/3 With all the virtual music concerts out there in cyberspace, there is even more #WeekendMotivation to #StayInsideYourBubble, turn up the #TogetherApart music & start a #VirtualParty! #COVID19 #StayAtHome 🕺💃🎶
2/3 Keep physically fit while #PhysicalDistancing during your weekend; do a little dance while you #StayInsideYourBubble. Go on 🇨🇦, bust a move, just don’t bust your bubble! #COVID19 #StayAtHome & show us YOUR #ToosieSlideChallenge - your #PlanktheCurve – or your #CrushtheCurve
3/3 Think you can do better than the amazing @masakakids from Uganda? #StayInsideYourBubble and dance #TogetherApart with the whole world this #weekend
#PureJoy
#PureJoy
