Most read Bessent’s speech as vague. But it wasn’t what he said—it was how little he needed to say.

A few lines on Europe, debt, and global imbalances quietly confirmed the blueprint behind months of trade pivots, market shocks, and tight-lipped diplomacy.

Let’s trace it. 🧵 I’ve been piecing together a puzzle for months—across Trump’s tariff announcements, gold revaluation murmurs, IMF gripes, and Treasury policy.

It has been vaguely called the Mar-a-Lago Accords.

Not a document. Not yet.

But a framework that is absolutely in motion.

🧵The 195D Chessboard: What the Tariff Move Set in Motion

I’ve waited 10 days—not because the dust has fully settled, but for signals.

What began as a bold tariff play has triggered 1st, 2nd & 3rd-order effects—across the monetary system, trade architecture & global alignment.

https://twitter.com/tanvi_ratna/status/1907880105369845865

Historically, tariff shocks redirected global capital into Treasuries—lowering yields, strengthening the dollar, and easing U.S. refinancing.

That familiar flight-to-safety pattern has long reinforced Washington’s fiscal leverage.

This time, the response diverged.

The global chessboard is finally in motion.

President Trump’s sweeping tariffs have landed, and the world has responded. We can now see who’s ready to play in this grand reset—and who isn’t.

Three clear response strategies seem to be emerging. Let's check the updates so far🧵 First, let's recap the tariffs:

-UK, Israel, UAE, Saudi face a 10% baseline.
-Others were slammed: China, Taiwan, Japan, and EU endure steep duties—up to 50%.
-Semiconductors & energy stayed partly sheltered for a lucky few.
-Russia, Cuba, Belarus, North Korea were excluded.

Trump’s new tariffs aren’t a trade tweak—they’re the first move in a full-spectrum reset.

$9.2T in debt matures in 2025. Inflation lingers. Alliances are shifting.

One announcement just set a dozen wheels in motion.
Here’s what’s really happening—and why it matters 🧵 Start with the debt: $9.2T must be refinanced in 2025.

If rolled into 10-yr bonds, every 1 basis point drop in rates saves approx $1B/year; so a 0.5% drop would save $500B over a decade.

Lower yields free up fiscal room—without them, core spending gets crowded out.

America is redrawing the battlelines for AI policy

Having worked on AI policy worldwide, I've observed firsthand the global push on AI safety.

Now, VP JD Vance says the US is pivoting to acceleration.
How will this influence markets & geopolitics?
Join our XSpace to explore🧵

https://twitter.com/tanvi_ratna/status/1889180588738781674

Here's a thread of how AI policy across jurisdictions was overwhelmingly focused on safety so far

I dug into President Trump’s Executive Orders on Immigration so you don’t have to.

From a national emergency, to military at the border, to cartels labeled as terrorists, many legal plays have been invoked.

Here’s all you need to know (and why it’s a BIG deal) 🧵 1/ The National Emergencies Act (NEA)
The NEA (1976) gives the POTUS sweeping powers to respond to crises. Trump has invoked the NEA to counter criminal gangs & illegal immigration- allowing reallocation of federal funds (bypassing Congress) to expedite border security measures.

Breakdown of all components of #cryptocurrency #tax in #Budget2022 🧵

4 major provisions proposed, effective at different points in time:
1. New Income Tax scheme 115BBH
2. New TDS clause 194S
3. Gifting of #crypto taxed as property
4. Sweeping definitions of crypto assets Income Tax:

New Scheme 115BBH (effective 1 April 2023)

Any income generated from transfer of any virtual asset will be taxed at 30%. There will be no deductions or offsets allowed. There will be no carry forward of losses into subsequent assessment years.

🚨Thread 🚨answering questions on India's #Budget2022 #crypto #CBDC announcements (send me Qs here)

Q1. Does taxation mean a recognition of the legality of crypto?
What is legal & isn't will be decided by the India Crypto Bill, which hasn't been tabled yet. This is a deterrent..

https://twitter.com/rishabhmansur2/status/1488411292113063941

The #India #crypto #bill was expected to be tabled in final form in this budget session. It might be so if the cabinet clears it but the bill is expected to be finalized by May. The motivations behind today's announcement is not clarity per se but signaling:

India's #crypto arc in a global perspective: India lags the world by an average of 2-3 years in terms of #crypto #regulatory framework development. We are now on the 3rd Inter-Ministerial Committee on crypto. Some pts from my session at #HODLConference2021 @IAMAIForum India's adoption of #cryptocurrency is ramping up exponentially, signalling a clear demand for these tokens in the country. India recently ranked a whopping second on Chainalysis's Global #Crypto Adoption Index @chainalysis @SEBI_India @nsitharaman @RBI @NPCI_NPCI

The latest #OCC guidance allowing settlement through #stablecoins is exciting but with many side effects. There are threads that link it to the #Bitcoin price and ATHs, #Tether ,#Libra , #JPMorgan #WallStreet , #DCEP. I'm watching out for 6 aspects 👇1/n 1 - What most have caught on to is that stablecoins getting linked to banks will eventually make them more regulated and justify full AML/KYC disclosures. This will eventually be required everywhere, not just in the US. Another impact would be on reserve management..2/n

#BeyondHeadlines: There are not-so-obvious global reasons why the #OilMarketCrash is NOT good for #India.

Heavy #QE/ currency pressure + Intense #geopolitical tension

= #India, importer & friend to all oil producers, in the crosshairs.

Thread on these impacts of #OilPrice 👇 US #oilprice crashed negative for the 1st time in history. West Texas Intermediate (a US crude) traded as low as -$40.32 a barrel. So far the bulk of the losses are in US crude, -200 to -1000%! Global (Brent) crude has not gone down as much because global storage still exists.

4 lesser known truths about the big #Facebook #RelianceJio deal:

1. Facebook struggled with regulation for 3 years in trying to launch #WhatsApp Pay bcoz of privacy issues+blocking by high access of PayTM etc. So FB made a deal with the big daddy of Indian companies with access.

https://twitter.com/moneycontrolcom/status/1252797693178626060

2. The recently launched NUE framework by the #RBI is possibly a big end game being targeted by the partnership. This framework allows for parallel payment infrastructure to UPI being set up countrywide. $5.7 bn is cheap for this scale of access & profit

m.rbi.org.in/scripts/bs_vie…

🚨#India #Crypto #ban #regulation🚨THREAD:

Imp pts for every observer in India/abroad in short clips:

Part 1 - Analyzing Leaked docs

1. Pg cites fine or 1-10 yrs for SPECIFIC activities
2. No definitions! Draft clearly not ready for legislation (1/n) Part 2 - Understand the policy process

1. Draft doesnt = ban, until it clears Finance Minister & Parliament vote.

2. Public consultation NOT mandatory. Ask for it.

3. WRITE (>tweet) to folks mentioned in the vid

#India #Crypto #ban #regulation (2/n)