Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #rents
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🇺🇸 #Fed #Inflation | An update on CPI prospects ⚠
*Leading indicators suggest CPI YoY will normalize quickly in the coming months and, in absence of external shock, could ⬇ close to 3% in June 2023
*Therefore, Bloomberg consensus for 2023 CPI (+4%) should be revised ⬇ soon.
*Leading indicators suggest CPI YoY will normalize quickly in the coming months and, in absence of external shock, could ⬇ close to 3% in June 2023
*Therefore, Bloomberg consensus for 2023 CPI (+4%) should be revised ⬇ soon.
1- Market #rents will keep retracing in the coming months. Household formation and rental demand are slowing in response to macro conditions while #housing supply will gain traction, with a peak expected around 4Q23. 
*The collision of these factors will probably result in a contraction of market #rents on a YoY basis at some point next year. In the past, the CPI’s measure of rents for homeowners has typically lagged other measures (9 to 12 months looks appropriate for this cycle).
🇺🇸 #Fed | From #Inflation (Now) To #Deflation Fears (In Late 2023)
*A bit provocative I know but leading indicators suggest that CPI YoY will normalize quickly in the coming months and, in absence of external shock, could return to 2% in late 2023.
*A thread ⬇
*A bit provocative I know but leading indicators suggest that CPI YoY will normalize quickly in the coming months and, in absence of external shock, could return to 2% in late 2023.
*A thread ⬇
1- Market #rents will keep retracing in the coming months. Household formation and rental demand are slowing in response to macro conditions while #housing supply will gain traction in the coming months, with a peak expected around 4Q23 (HT @jayparsons).
The collision of these factors will probably result in a contraction of market #rents on a YoY basis at some point next year. In the past, the CPI’s measure of rents for homeowners has typically lagged other measures of market rents by between 6 and 12 months.
Higher #import duties to tackle the #BOP problem is the wrong advice. It won't deliver on the intended objective. Why? 🧵👇 brecorder.com/news/40168085/…
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (1) | Latest reports confirmed that #inflation remains a key issue that has affected consumer confidence and spending.
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (2) | The problem is that #Biden advisors and economists didn’t see it coming, thinking that #inflation was transitory. As a result, Biden approval rating ⬇ sharply and is for the first time below #Trump's at this time in the presidency.
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (3) | Now they woke up (a part of #inflation is of course durable), they think that raising short-term rates as fast as possible before midterms will solve the problem, which confirms that they still don’t understand inflation dynamic and markets’ reaction.
🇺🇸 #FOMC (1) | Statement and other releases were mostly in line with Street expectations, which had been looking for signal to lay groundwork for March liftoff.
🇺🇸 #FOMC (3) | Powell press conference was clearly more aggressive than the statement, suggesting that he could be more on the hawkish side of the committee.
🇪🇺 Christine Lagarde sent a clear warning to the market which suggests that the #ECB is still unlikely to hike rates anytime soon.
🇪🇺 🇺🇸 There are at least four big divergences with the U.S.:
1/ Most of #inflation comes from #energy prices (~50%) as the EU is more dependent. After winter and/or if geopolitical tensions ease, the effect should reverse creating huge negative base effects in 2H22.
1/ Most of #inflation comes from #energy prices (~50%) as the EU is more dependent. After winter and/or if geopolitical tensions ease, the effect should reverse creating huge negative base effects in 2H22.
2/ In Eurozone, market #rents are not rising by 15% or more YoY and it will never happen ⚠ with several cities already implementing caps.
3/ Positive base effect from the spike of German VAT will normalize.
3/ Positive base effect from the spike of German VAT will normalize.
🇺🇸 #FOMC (1) | Latest minutes show that #Fed policymakers look more concerned about #inflation, in line with recent speeches from Powell.
federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre…
federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre…
🇺🇸 #FOMC (2) | In my opinion, the risk of a wage-price spiral is now real with low-income families asking for more wage increases.
*Quits rate in low-wage sectors is well above the average (already at record high in the private sector)
*Quits rate in low-wage sectors is well above the average (already at record high in the private sector)
🇺🇸 #FOMC (3) | For different reasons, right now, the labor is tighter than indicated by the unemployment rate (4.2% in Nov. 2021).
🇺🇸 #Fed Update (1) | PCE #inflation rose 5.0% YoY (highest since Nov. 1990; vs 4.4% prior).
*Core was 4.1% YoY (highest since Jan. 1991; vs an upwardly revised 3.7% prior).
*Core was 4.1% YoY (highest since Jan. 1991; vs an upwardly revised 3.7% prior).
🇺🇸 #Fed Update (2) | FOMC minutes revealed that once again, doves were completely wrong about #inflation noting that “the most sizable price increases may have already occurred.”
*Link (p.8): federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy…
*Link (p.8): federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy…
🇺🇸 #Fed Update (3) | That view was proved wrong by the CPI reading released a week later and the PCE inflation figures released yesterday.
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 10/26/2020 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/10/26/dai…
Emerging Architectures for Modern Data Infrastructure
a16z.com/2020/10/15/the…
#infrastructure #architectures #data
a16z.com/2020/10/15/the…
#infrastructure #architectures #data
Shipwrecked by Rents | naked capitalism
nakedcapitalism.com/2020/10/shipwr…
#rents #capitalism #RentSeeking
nakedcapitalism.com/2020/10/shipwr…
#rents #capitalism #RentSeeking
A few more thoughts on recent #inflation data: the past four #CPI prints have been heavily driven by shelter inflation, and April shelter CPI came in at a hefty 3.4% year-over-year.
Since #shelter holds a 33% weighting in the index that implies that 1.15% of the 2% headline CPI figure in April, or 57% of the #inflation contribution, came from shelter. Looking at the last four CPI prints, the shelter contribution would be even higher, on average, at 65%!
Further, as we’ve argued before, this data displays some meaningful regional variation, with core inflation readings in the West of the country running at greater than 0.8% more than inflation in the U.S. as a whole.
