Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #probabilities
Most recents (5)
An argument for why the Gambler's Fallacy, the Recency Bias, and Conditional Heteroskedasticity could set up an attractive asymmetric return profile ahead of Wednesday's US inflation (#CPI) data ...
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Headline CPI is forecasted to come in at 6.5% YoY, compared to 7.1% the month before. CPI has clearly been trending downward since June 2022, which is positive for the #economy and risky assets as it puts a ceiling on how high the #FederalReserve has to raise rates.
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The Gambler's Fallacy & Recency Bias:
CPI swaps indicate that CPI should be approx. 2.5% (!) this June. This seems to be an example of the "Gambler's Fallacy"; a misunderstanding of #probabilities in which people wrongly project reversal towards a long-term mean.
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CPI swaps indicate that CPI should be approx. 2.5% (!) this June. This seems to be an example of the "Gambler's Fallacy"; a misunderstanding of #probabilities in which people wrongly project reversal towards a long-term mean.
3/n
Galveston: In 1900, Galveston, population 36,000, was obliterated, making it the site of the worst natural disaster in US history, a sad record it retains to this day. 6,000 to 12,000 were killed, thousands of buildings wiped out, etc. 1/
2/ Galveston was rebuilt with a massive seawall and the land was raised as much as 17 feet. 15 years later, another similar hurricane and storm surge hit. The wall worked. Only 53 were killed. #Galveston #Texas #hurricane #UShistory
3/ 1900 #Galveston hurricane: Galveston was one of Texas' largest cities and was very, very wealthy. Disregarding #statistics #probabilities #science #data, plans for a seawall to protect the sandbar city were dismissed as ridiculous. #nature
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 04/17/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/04/17/dai…
“A New Technological Order” by Bruno Maçães
policyexchange.org.uk/a-new-technolo…
#competition #EconomicBlocs #ClimatePolicies #SpheresOfInfluence
policyexchange.org.uk/a-new-technolo…
#competition #EconomicBlocs #ClimatePolicies #SpheresOfInfluence
Adam Kucharski on Twitter and ThreadReader
threadreaderapp.com/convos/1382242…
#vaccinations #infections #probabilities
threadreaderapp.com/convos/1382242…
#vaccinations #infections #probabilities
Analysing #Saturn #Rahu #Jupiter all in the 9th #Bhaav of a #kundali where #Saturn is also #Laganesh. So the options are 1) #Capricorn and 2) #Aquarius as #Lagan #Raashi.
It's friday. No #Banknifty trades. Let's revise some of the best takeaways form "Trading in the zone" (1/n)
There is a big difference between predicting & executing trades. Predicting what market could do is easy - executing trades is more complex. It takes confidence, humility and #discipline to properly execute a #trade. (2/n)
Trading is all about thinking like a chess player - anticipating all #possibilities and #probabilities. (3/n)
