Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #nowcast
Most recents (18)
#SARSCoV2 Weekly #VariantDesignation Breakdown
This past week there have been 20 designations
- 2 new aliases
- Most are within the 5, 9, 16, and 22 branches of XBB.1.*
This past week there have been 20 designations
- 2 new aliases
- Most are within the 5, 9, 16, and 22 branches of XBB.1.*
#SARSCoV2 #VariantProportions - #USA |04/21/23
New @CDCgov #Nowcast estimates:
Top circulating lineages:
XBB.1.5 (73.6%)⬇️
XBB.1.16 (9.6%) ⬆️
XBB.1.9.1 (7.9%)
XBB.1.9.2 (2.9%)
XBB.1.5.1 (2.2%)
FD.2 (1.6%)
XBB (1%)
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
1/n
New @CDCgov #Nowcast estimates:
Top circulating lineages:
XBB.1.5 (73.6%)⬇️
XBB.1.16 (9.6%) ⬆️
XBB.1.9.1 (7.9%)
XBB.1.9.2 (2.9%)
XBB.1.5.1 (2.2%)
FD.2 (1.6%)
XBB (1%)
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
1/n
Over all trends are consistent with #15DayTrends (based on sequences uploaded in the public databases)
XBB.1.5 is still at the top; followed by XBB.1.16 & XBB.1.9.1
Expect XBB.2.3 to feature in the @CDCgov dashboard soon!
2/n
XBB.1.5 is still at the top; followed by XBB.1.16 & XBB.1.9.1
Expect XBB.2.3 to feature in the @CDCgov dashboard soon!
2/n
XBB.1.16* hotspots per CDC #Nowcast
>5% spread in almost all regions
Region 6 estimate reads 14.4% (looks more reasonable than the previous week's estimate of 21.3% spread which looked suspect; )
3/n
>5% spread in almost all regions
Region 6 estimate reads 14.4% (looks more reasonable than the previous week's estimate of 21.3% spread which looked suspect; )
3/n
#SARSCoV2 #VariantProportions - #USA |04/14/23
New @CDCgov #Nowcast estimates:
>> XBB.1.16, XBB.1.9.2 and FD.2 make an entry! <<
Top circulating lineages:
XBB.1.5 (78%)
XBB.1.16 (7.2%)
XBB.1.9.1 (6.5%)
XBB.1.9.2 (2.5%)
--
FD.2 (1.7%)
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
1/n
New @CDCgov #Nowcast estimates:
>> XBB.1.16, XBB.1.9.2 and FD.2 make an entry! <<
Top circulating lineages:
XBB.1.5 (78%)
XBB.1.16 (7.2%)
XBB.1.9.1 (6.5%)
XBB.1.9.2 (2.5%)
--
FD.2 (1.7%)
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
1/n
Over all trends are consistent with #15DayTrends (based on sequences uploaded in the public databases)
XBB.1.5 is still at the top; followed by XBB.1.16 & XBB.1.9.1
As expected XBB.1.16, XBB.1.5.15* (FD.2) featured in the CDC nowcast today!
2/n
XBB.1.5 is still at the top; followed by XBB.1.16 & XBB.1.9.1
As expected XBB.1.16, XBB.1.5.15* (FD.2) featured in the CDC nowcast today!
2/n
XBB.1.16* hotspots per CDC #Nowcast
As expected, hotspots are in regions 2, 3, 4, 9, 10
>> Region 6 estimate looks suspect! <<
3/n
As expected, hotspots are in regions 2, 3, 4, 9, 10
>> Region 6 estimate looks suspect! <<
3/n
#SARSCoV2 #VariantProportions - #USA |03/24/23
New @CDCgov #Nowcast estimates
XBB.1.9.1 (#Hyperion) makes an entry
Top circulating lineages:
XBB.1.5 (90.2%)
XBB.1.9.1 (2.5%)
BQ.1.1 (2.5%)
XBB.1.5.1 (2.4%)
XBB (1.2%)
CH.1.1 (0.4%)
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
1/n
New @CDCgov #Nowcast estimates
XBB.1.9.1 (#Hyperion) makes an entry
Top circulating lineages:
XBB.1.5 (90.2%)
XBB.1.9.1 (2.5%)
BQ.1.1 (2.5%)
XBB.1.5.1 (2.4%)
XBB (1.2%)
CH.1.1 (0.4%)
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
1/n
A closer look at nowcast estimates (modeled projections)
2/n
2/n
Over all trends are consistent with #15DayTrends (based on sequences uploaded in the public databases)
XBB.1.5 is still at the top; XBB.1.9.1 makes an entry
Expected XBB.1.5.13 and XBB.1.16 to feature in the CDC dashboard variant line up today..
3/n
XBB.1.5 is still at the top; XBB.1.9.1 makes an entry
Expected XBB.1.5.13 and XBB.1.16 to feature in the CDC dashboard variant line up today..
3/n
#SARSCoV2 #VariantProportions - #USA |03/17/23
New @CDCgov #Nowcast estimates
Top circulating lineages:
XBB.1.5 (90.2%)
BQ.1.1 (3.5%)⬇️
XBB (2.5%)
XBB.1.5.1 (2.2%)
BQ.1 (0.7%)⬇️
CH.1.1 (0.5%)
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
1/n
New @CDCgov #Nowcast estimates
Top circulating lineages:
XBB.1.5 (90.2%)
BQ.1.1 (3.5%)⬇️
XBB (2.5%)
XBB.1.5.1 (2.2%)
BQ.1 (0.7%)⬇️
CH.1.1 (0.5%)
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
1/n
A closer look at nowcast estimates (modeled projections)
2/n
2/n
Over all trends are consistent with #15DayTrends (based on sequences uploaded in the public databases)
XBB.1.5 is still the dominant lineage
Expected XBB.1.9.1 and XBB.1.5.13 to feature in the CDC dashboard variant line up today..
3/n
XBB.1.5 is still the dominant lineage
Expected XBB.1.9.1 and XBB.1.5.13 to feature in the CDC dashboard variant line up today..
3/n
Glad to see @WHO cares and will continue its #VariantTracking efforts!
These decisions generate a domino-type effect often ending up impacting the funds allocated for robust global surveillance efforts
#VariantTrackers have their task cut out...
These decisions generate a domino-type effect often ending up impacting the funds allocated for robust global surveillance efforts
#VariantTrackers have their task cut out...
Important resources to keep you updated with what's happening in the variant world
1. Cov-Spectrum Collection 24 for effective tracking- cov-spectrum.org/collections/24 (@siamosolocani @Asinickle1 @wolfeagle1989)
1. Cov-Spectrum Collection 24 for effective tracking- cov-spectrum.org/collections/24 (@siamosolocani @Asinickle1 @wolfeagle1989)
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
Macro Review 🧵
01/15/2023
1/11
Core #CPI running at +3.1% SAAR confirmed #Goldilocks for Q422 and catalyzed a 🚀 in equities, metals, and hydrocarbons
#Core CPI - 3-month SAAR
Dec - 3.1%
Nov - 4.2%
Oct - 5.7%
Chart: #CoreCPI 5.7% 🔻
Macro Review 🧵
01/15/2023
1/11
Core #CPI running at +3.1% SAAR confirmed #Goldilocks for Q422 and catalyzed a 🚀 in equities, metals, and hydrocarbons
#Core CPI - 3-month SAAR
Dec - 3.1%
Nov - 4.2%
Oct - 5.7%
Chart: #CoreCPI 5.7% 🔻
1a/11
Despite all the recession talk - including my own, the @AtlantaFed #NowCast is projecting Q4 growth of +4.1%, an acceleration.
Growth 🔺 + Inflation 🔻 = #Quad1 #Goldilocks
Chart:
Despite all the recession talk - including my own, the @AtlantaFed #NowCast is projecting Q4 growth of +4.1%, an acceleration.
Growth 🔺 + Inflation 🔻 = #Quad1 #Goldilocks
Chart:
2/11
While #Quad1 #Goldilocks may be good for risk assets, it’s decidedly poor for the $USD, which continued ↘️ and took out the 50% retracement level of 102.12
Chart: $USD -1.64% (w) -9.94% 3M = T = Trend
While #Quad1 #Goldilocks may be good for risk assets, it’s decidedly poor for the $USD, which continued ↘️ and took out the 50% retracement level of 102.12
Chart: $USD -1.64% (w) -9.94% 3M = T = Trend
#SARSCoV2 #VariantProportions - #USA |01/06/23
Interesting tug of war between BQ.1.1 vs XBB.1.5
As expected new @CDCgov #Nowcast estimates
BQ.1.1 (34.4%) > XBB.1.5* (27.6%)
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
1/n
Interesting tug of war between BQ.1.1 vs XBB.1.5
As expected new @CDCgov #Nowcast estimates
BQ.1.1 (34.4%) > XBB.1.5* (27.6%)
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
1/n
Use the "nowcast off" button in the CDC Variant Proportions dashboard to get a clear picture of the variant spread
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
3/n
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
3/n
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
My Q12023 outlook reflects the massive forces current under way 🧵
My Q12023 outlook reflects the massive forces current under way 🧵
1> Fed, Treasury, and big market players (reverse repo) who are draining liquidity from the markets will make for a messy start for risk assets to start the new year.
This coincides with 🥐🪟 of weakness into Jan 10.
This coincides with 🥐🪟 of weakness into Jan 10.
2> Cheap Russian oil (less than $60/B) is being directed to our most important manufacturing ‘partners' (China and India).
Because they are well supplied, goods inflation is unlikely to rise in the hear term.
wsj.com/articles/russi…
Because they are well supplied, goods inflation is unlikely to rise in the hear term.
wsj.com/articles/russi…
#SARSCoV2 #VariantProportions - #USA |12/30/22
Top lineages (per @CDCgov #Nowcast estimates):
40.5% XBB.1.5🚀🚀🚀👀
26.9% BQ.1.1⬇️
18.3% BQ.1⬇️
3.7% BA.5⬇️
3.6% XBB
2.4% BN.1
2.1% BF.7
0.9% BA.2.75
and others
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
1/n
Top lineages (per @CDCgov #Nowcast estimates):
40.5% XBB.1.5🚀🚀🚀👀
26.9% BQ.1.1⬇️
18.3% BQ.1⬇️
3.7% BA.5⬇️
3.6% XBB
2.4% BN.1
2.1% BF.7
0.9% BA.2.75
and others
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
1/n
BQ.1, BQ.1.1 hotspots per nowcast estimates
3/n
3/n
#SARSCoV2 #VariantProportions - #USA |12/23/22
Top lineages (per @CDCgov #Nowcast estimates):
35.7% BQ.1.1
27.4% BQ.1
18.3% XBB⬆️👀
6.9% BA.5
3.9% BF.7
3.8% BN.1
1.1% BA.5.2.6
1.0% BA.2.75
and others
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
1/n
Top lineages (per @CDCgov #Nowcast estimates):
35.7% BQ.1.1
27.4% BQ.1
18.3% XBB⬆️👀
6.9% BA.5
3.9% BF.7
3.8% BN.1
1.1% BA.5.2.6
1.0% BA.2.75
and others
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
1/n
BQ.1, BQ.1.1 hotspots per nowcast estimates
3/n
3/n
#SARSCoV2 #VariantProportions - #USA |10/21/22
@CDCgov #Nowcast estimates
BA.5*: 62.2%
BA.4.6: 11.3%
BQ.1*: 9.4%
BQ.1.1*: 7.2%
BF.7*: 6.7%
BA.2.75.2*: 1.3%
Does not include recombinant lineage XBB yet
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
@CDCgov #Nowcast estimates
BA.5*: 62.2%
BA.4.6: 11.3%
BQ.1*: 9.4%
BQ.1.1*: 7.2%
BF.7*: 6.7%
BA.2.75.2*: 1.3%
Does not include recombinant lineage XBB yet
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
CDC #NOWCAST #VariantProportions Predictions
- #USA (updated on 10/07/22)
79.2% BA.5*
13.6% BA.4.6* ⬆️
4.6% BF.7*
1.8% BA.2.75* 👀
0.8% BA.4
Get #Boosted and #MaskUp
Source: covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
@CDCgov
- #USA (updated on 10/07/22)
79.2% BA.5*
13.6% BA.4.6* ⬆️
4.6% BF.7*
1.8% BA.2.75* 👀
0.8% BA.4
Get #Boosted and #MaskUp
Source: covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
@CDCgov
Consistent with #COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #15DayTrends
Top circulating lineages (#15DayTrends)
80% BA.5*
12% BA.4.6*
2% BF.7*
1.5% BA.4*
1.3% BA.2.75*
1.1% BQ.1*
0.9% BQ.1.1*
0.3% BA.2.3.30*
0.1% XBB*
Top circulating lineages (#15DayTrends)
80% BA.5*
12% BA.4.6*
2% BF.7*
1.5% BA.4*
1.3% BA.2.75*
1.1% BQ.1*
0.9% BQ.1.1*
0.3% BA.2.3.30*
0.1% XBB*
CDC Nowcast Estimates – Regions 1-4 & 7 are BA.4.6* Hotspots
CDC #NOWCAST Variant Proportions Predictions
- #USA (updated on 09/13/22)
87.5% BA.5* (S:L452R/F486V; M:D3N) ↔️
9.2% BA.4.6 (S:R346T)
2.2% BA.4 (S:L452R/F486V; N:P151S)
1% BA.2*
0.1% BA.2.12.1* (S:L452Q)⬇️
Get #Boosted and #MaskUp
Source: covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
@CDCgov
- #USA (updated on 09/13/22)
87.5% BA.5* (S:L452R/F486V; M:D3N) ↔️
9.2% BA.4.6 (S:R346T)
2.2% BA.4 (S:L452R/F486V; N:P151S)
1% BA.2*
0.1% BA.2.12.1* (S:L452Q)⬇️
Get #Boosted and #MaskUp
Source: covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
@CDCgov
Consistent with #15DayTrends
CDC nowcast predicts HHS Region 7 as a BA.4.6 lineage (dark blue color) hotspot
CDC #NOWCAST Variant Proportions Predictions
- #USA (6/25/22)
42% BA.2.12.1 (S:L452Q)⬇️
36.6% BA.5 (S:L452R/F486V) ⬆️ 👀
15.7% BA.4 (S:L452R/F486V)⬆️
5.7% BA.2⬇️
Get #Boosted and #MaskUp
Source: covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
@CDCgov
- #USA (6/25/22)
42% BA.2.12.1 (S:L452Q)⬇️
36.6% BA.5 (S:L452R/F486V) ⬆️ 👀
15.7% BA.4 (S:L452R/F486V)⬆️
5.7% BA.2⬇️
Get #Boosted and #MaskUp
Source: covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
@CDCgov
No surprises there, “yet”!
Variant Proportions - a closer look at the top circulating lineages in USA and HHS regions 1-10
BA.2.12.1 has peaked in all the HHS regions reporting
BA.2 has been outcompeted
BA.5 is surging in all HHS regions
BA.2.12.1 has peaked in all the HHS regions reporting
BA.2 has been outcompeted
BA.5 is surging in all HHS regions
CDC #NOWCAST Variant Proportions Predictions
- #USA (6/7/22)
62.2% BA.2.12.1 (S:L452Q)
24.8% BA.2
7.6% BA.5 (S:L452R/F486V)<<<
5.4% BA.4 (S:L452R/F486V) <<<
Get Boosted and #MaskUp
Source: covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra… @CDCgov
- #USA (6/7/22)
62.2% BA.2.12.1 (S:L452Q)
24.8% BA.2
7.6% BA.5 (S:L452R/F486V)<<<
5.4% BA.4 (S:L452R/F486V) <<<
Get Boosted and #MaskUp
Source: covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra… @CDCgov
Region 8 is a BA.4 Hotspot
~13.1% BA.4 in circulation in region comprising of #Colorado, #Montana, #Utah, #NorthDakota, #SouthDakota, #Wyoming
~13.1% BA.4 in circulation in region comprising of #Colorado, #Montana, #Utah, #NorthDakota, #SouthDakota, #Wyoming
BA.4 hotspots by HHS Region - USA
El @INEGI_INFORMA presentó su Indicador Oportuno de la Actividad Económica #IOAE con estimaciones "en tiempo real" o #nowcast del Indicador Global de la Actividad Económica #IGAE para los meses de febrero y marzo 2022.
1/4
1/4
Sessão 2 da comparação entre dado disponível, dado consolidado, e #nowcast / #bakcfill do #InfoGripe para os dados de #SRAG no Brasil.
O foco agora é a tendência em si, já que na 1a olhamos impacto na intensidade.
#COVID19 #FIOCRUZ #MAVE
Sessão 1, aqui:
O foco agora é a tendência em si, já que na 1a olhamos impacto na intensidade.
#COVID19 #FIOCRUZ #MAVE
Sessão 1, aqui:
O foco aki é TENDÊNCIA. I.e., como o atraso afeta a capacidade de avaliar se a curva de novos casos está subindo/estabilizando/caindo?
Notem q, além de observarmos sempre um número muito < de casos, o atraso tbm faz c q, em geral, indique queda mesmo qnd ainda está em ascensão.
Notem q, além de observarmos sempre um número muito < de casos, o atraso tbm faz c q, em geral, indique queda mesmo qnd ainda está em ascensão.
Notem tbm q a "estimativa pontual" (mediana da estimativa, linha tracejada) para a própria semana nem sempre acerta "na mosca". Mas o intervalo de confiança (IC), em geral, captura bem e, + importante, a média móvel de 3 semanas da estimativa pontual em geral acerta a tendência.
