Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #joblessclaims
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Thread🧵 on GMI's key macro charts by Raoul Pal. @RaoulGMI #GlobalMacro
1/7 ISM is falling to 46.9, indicating short-term weakness. New orders point towards a drop closer to 45 in June. #GlobalEconomy 
2/7 The GMI Financial Conditions Index suggests recovery, having already bottomed out and now rising. #FinancialConditions #EconomicTrends
🚨False hope sell off ahead of key data 👀
• Silvergate $SI & SVB Financial $SIVB hurt banks $XLF $FAS $KBE $KRE
• Higher-than-expected initial jobless claims
• S&P 500 $SPY $SPX breaks its 200-day moving average
• Looking ahead to Friday
#marketstoday #marketnews #stocks
• Silvergate $SI & SVB Financial $SIVB hurt banks $XLF $FAS $KBE $KRE
• Higher-than-expected initial jobless claims
• S&P 500 $SPY $SPX breaks its 200-day moving average
• Looking ahead to Friday
#marketstoday #marketnews #stocks
📉 Bank stocks sold off sharply amid concerns of rising rates, higher deposit costs, & weaker loan demand that collided
- Silvergate Capital $SI is voluntarily liquidating Silvergate Bank
- SVB Financial $SIVB seeking to raise capital due to elevated cash burn from its clients
- Silvergate Capital $SI is voluntarily liquidating Silvergate Bank
- SVB Financial $SIVB seeking to raise capital due to elevated cash burn from its clients
📊 Initial jobless claims for the week were the highest claims levels since December
That teased the prospect of some softening in the labor market, as it marked the first initial claims reading above 200,000 in eight weeks 🤔
#jobs #joblessclaims
That teased the prospect of some softening in the labor market, as it marked the first initial claims reading above 200,000 in eight weeks 🤔
#jobs #joblessclaims
1/ Employment is viewed as a lagging economic indicator except for when laid off workers seek financial help; that's when this labor activity becomes a leading indicator.
Enter #joblessclaims.
Our latest primer thread incoming ⤵
Enter #joblessclaims.
Our latest primer thread incoming ⤵
2/ What is "jobless claims?"
Its fancy name is Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims and it's a data series about the need for financial help for laid off workers.
The Department of Labor aggregates state-level input and publishes the data every Thursday for the prior week.
Its fancy name is Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims and it's a data series about the need for financial help for laid off workers.
The Department of Labor aggregates state-level input and publishes the data every Thursday for the prior week.
3/ Why do markets care about jobless claims?
1. It *can* signal demand for labor.
2. It's a higher frequency data set--weekly.
3. Initial claims warn of shocks; continuing claims, drag.
4. It's a leading economic indicator.
1. It *can* signal demand for labor.
2. It's a higher frequency data set--weekly.
3. Initial claims warn of shocks; continuing claims, drag.
4. It's a leading economic indicator.
Initial UI claims SA fell slightly last week to 290K, hitting another new intra-crisis low.
Initial claims are continuing to decline as the Delta wave recedes. Delta is on the downswing but cases are still elevated, suggesting further room for improvement.
#joblessclaims 1/
Initial claims are continuing to decline as the Delta wave recedes. Delta is on the downswing but cases are still elevated, suggesting further room for improvement.
#joblessclaims 1/
Initial PUA claims have dropped to 2K as backdated claims fade post-expiration.
The last day to file a backdated claim was 10/6 in CA, which accounted for >2/3rd of new PUA claims in the U.S. 2 wks ago.
#joblessclaims 2/
The last day to file a backdated claim was 10/6 in CA, which accounted for >2/3rd of new PUA claims in the U.S. 2 wks ago.
#joblessclaims 2/
Continuing UI claims (SA) hit another intra-crisis low too, at 2.48 million. The decline has accelerated since mid-September, perhaps due to increased hiring after the Delta wave peaked in early-to-mid September
#joblessclaims 3/
#joblessclaims 3/
When you read about the #joblessclaims, here's something you should know about. More than 2 million people know their paychecks and healthcare are protected at least through September thanks to the the payroll grants @FlyingWithSara put toward and fought for #coronavirus 1/9
Aviation has seen an 87% drop in revenue. The financial cost to the industry is already greater than the hit from 9/11 and the Great Recession COMBINED. Of those two million aviation workers, at least one million would have been laid off in the next month or so without this 2/9
This wasn't a bailout for the airlines. In total, about $30 billion is going straight to paychecks and benefits for everyone from flight attendants and pilots to the folks who clean planes and push wheelchairs through the airport. It includes catering and other contractors 3/9
