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Thread🧵 on GMI's key macro charts by Raoul Pal. @RaoulGMI #GlobalMacro
1/7 ISM is falling to 46.9, indicating short-term weakness. New orders point towards a drop closer to 45 in June. #GlobalEconomy 
2/7 The GMI Financial Conditions Index suggests recovery, having already bottomed out and now rising. #FinancialConditions #EconomicTrends
The Swiss National Bank will have its meeting today, and with Switzerland having fallen back into deflation, markets are pricing in a 30% chance for a small rate cut.
That said, the SNB already boasts the lowest rates worldwide, so it is unlikely to cut any deeper as running out of policy ammunition would risk generating a negative expectations loop. Instead, it will probably stick to huge FX interventions.
The CHF may tick higher if the SNB does not indicate any interest in rate cuts or even a thought to it, but any rally might not be sustained for long.
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DAY AHEAD: EUROPEAN PMIs
Any disappointment from the PMI data could temper the EUR rally. The single currency has been moving sideways during September as investors scale back some of their more optimistic forecasts for the Eurozone economy.
Any disappointment from the PMI data could temper the EUR rally. The single currency has been moving sideways during September as investors scale back some of their more optimistic forecasts for the Eurozone economy.
If the data fail to provide clear signals, the EUR is likely to extend its consolidation. However, strong surprises, whether positive or negative, have the potential to break this trading range as a clearer picture would emerge about where growth is headed in Q4.
