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DAY AHEAD: EUROPEAN PMIs
Any disappointment from the PMI data could temper the EUR rally. The single currency has been moving sideways during September as investors scale back some of their more optimistic forecasts for the Eurozone economy.
Any disappointment from the PMI data could temper the EUR rally. The single currency has been moving sideways during September as investors scale back some of their more optimistic forecasts for the Eurozone economy.
If the data fail to provide clear signals, the EUR is likely to extend its consolidation. However, strong surprises, whether positive or negative, have the potential to break this trading range as a clearer picture would emerge about where growth is headed in Q4.
1/The death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg less than two months before the presidential election tosses one more lit match into the tinderbox of national politics in 2020:
2/It will surely inflame a deeply polarised country already riven by a deadly pandemic, a steep economic downturn, and civil unrest in its major cities.
In Washington, the vacancy fight could ratchet up tensions to a level unseen even in the tumultuous Trump era.
In Washington, the vacancy fight could ratchet up tensions to a level unseen even in the tumultuous Trump era.
3/He could also become the first president since Richard Nixon to install three justices on the high court in a single four-year term.
A successful GOP effort to replace Ginsburg with a conservative before or immediately after a Democratic victory will almost certainly lead to..
A successful GOP effort to replace Ginsburg with a conservative before or immediately after a Democratic victory will almost certainly lead to..
1/It’s an action-packed week, with three major central bank meetings, the election over who will become Japan’s next leader, and an overload of key economic data. The Fed decision will be crucial (Thu).
2/Will the central bank reinforce its new inflation regime by signalling imminent stimulus, or will it sit back until the US election has passed? Neither the Bank of England (Thu) nor the Bank of Japan (Thu) is likely to act.
3/Instead, those currencies may be driven mostly by how the Brexit saga and global risk sentiment evolve.
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1/#GreenInitiative will be the narrative that underpins the need for unlimited fiscal spending to aid manufacturing and growth. The continent that is leading the charge in this theme is Europe.
2/They have been strongest advocates for carbon emissions, carbon tax, carbon credits (& Greta Thunberg). It’s a narrative that sticks and one that makes unlimited fiscal spending justifiable (for the good of humanity), this will be an emerging and huge theme going forward.
3/Assets that will benefit from this “Green Narrative” are #Uranium, and Uranium rich countries like Australia ($AUD) and Canada ($CAD).
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For now, the sell-off seems pretty much limited to leveraged players from ST speculators & in particular e retail sector. The HNW sector which typically would be killed in such a sell-off has reportedly been running v low leveraged since bloodbath in Mar. medium.com/global-macro-a…
However, increasing vol is nv a good thing especially when it’s accelerating down moves in stock markets. With the Nov election looming, Trump can ill-afford an end to the bullish stock market which he has consistently brandished as the barometer of the success of his policies.
1/The virus rages on and it seems that countries are putting their economies first. A vaccine is paramount to a safe economic recovery.
2/The key to note here is that pharmaceuticals are considering how to price their vaccines and this is a highly positive nuance as a potent vaccine will have far reaching positive effects due to its “affordability”.
3/Any success in Phase III trials will be massively bullish for risk-assets, especially cyclical stocks (airlines, hospitality and construction).
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EVENTS TO WATCH TODAY: 4 Sept 2020
1) U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls:
The consensus is for the US economy to have added another 1.4 million jobs in August, which would push the unemployment rate down to 9.8%, from 10.2% previously.
1) U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls:
The consensus is for the US economy to have added another 1.4 million jobs in August, which would push the unemployment rate down to 9.8%, from 10.2% previously.
That would still leave the unemployment rate just beneath its peak from the 2008 financial crisis, so even though this is a step in the right direction, there are still miles to go before the labour market truly recovers.
More importantly, this report will capture the mid-July to mid-August period, when infections were on the rise and several states rolled back their reopening plans, causing high-frequency indicators to lose steam.
1/This is a key and strategic move by the U.S., using Taiwan to set up a geopolitical and political tripwire to further antagonize and stifle Chinese ambitions In East Asia.
2/The fact that Washington is bound by law to rise to Taiwan’s defence is hugely unsettling for China and this will lead to more widespread repercussions. We are deeply entrenched in the Sino-American Thucydides Trap.
3/Understanding how to live and invest in a multi-polar world is increasingly important as new economic factions will emerge from this.
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1/Abe wasn’t voted out or incapacitated. Though the resignation was abrupt, we believe that the economic and political transition will be smooth.
2/Japan is a society that places emphasis on stability & maintenance of the status quo. Likely trajectory of the JPY is that “Abenomics” or semblance of it will cont. and the “Shock Premium” of the JPY spike will abate in the coming weeks. We continue to like Long on dips
With the dust from Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Thu settling, the fundamentals are re-exerting themselves. As we said, a switch to average inflation targeting will drive the price of hard assets higher and USD will weaken over time.
medium.com/global-macro-a…
medium.com/global-macro-a…
If you are unfamiliar with what I’m going to say next, it means you haven’t been paying attention. Stick to the path. The gift that keeps on giving will keep on giving.
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The immediate reaction of Fed Chair Powell saying, as was widely expected, that the U.S. central bank would roll out an aggressive new strategy to lift U.S. employment and inflation, was a USD sell-off. EUR reached a high of 1.1900 and Gold above 1975.
medium.com/global-macro-a…
medium.com/global-macro-a…
However, everything reversed as USD bond yields started to creep higher on fears of future inflation. Market positioning was short USD and that showed as speculators reduced position in a classic “buy the rumour, sell the fact” situation.
The level of political polarisation in the U.S. is unprecedented in recent decades. This will weigh on the country’s productivity and business sentiment as smaller enterprises are being destroyed by the unrest.
This will put pressure on the USD and long term trajectory of brick and mortar businesses. Inadvertently, it will also be a factor for unemployment, allowing Powell to run it hot as the lack of employment will stem inflation.
Speculation is mounting that Powell will use the annual Jackson Hole conference to announce a revamp of how monetary policy is set. The speech, scheduled for the first day of the economic symposium later today, could outline a shift by the Fed towards average inflation targeting.
If the yields on long-dated Treasury notes shoot higher after the speech, likely lifting the $ up as well, that would imply..
...investors don’t think Fed has gone far enough in reassuring markets that i/r will remain low for a very long period of time if they anticipate that the new policy would push up inflation in the long run.
Turkey used to be a “trusted NATO ally” and a reliable friend for U.S. administrations, however things changed since the rise of Erdogan and his religious radicalization and Trump’s administration only deepened the rift. Energy has always been the driver of geopolitics and..
... the cause of wars over centuries, Turkey’s gas find will not be overlooked by the superpowers and it can be a bargaining chip for Erdogan (which hegemonic faction will he pivot to - China or U.S.?). Be cognizant of how countries will react to this..
... Nonetheless, this is positive for the Turkish economy and Lira (which has been heavily battered) in the long run. Find out more about how we make sense of daily headlines by subscribing to the full report here:
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