Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #b16172
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Comparative study United States of America - Federal Republic of Germany.
#Epidemiology #Influenza #Covid19 #Mortality
🧵Validated data sources 2015 - 2021:
➡️app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjo…
➡️mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/
#Epidemiology #Influenza #Covid19 #Mortality
🧵Validated data sources 2015 - 2021:
➡️app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjo…
➡️mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/
The Influenza Epidemic was truly severe in 2018.
USA: >42.000 †
FRG: >25.000 †
Ref:
-cdc.gov/flu/about/burd…
-de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grippesai….
Comparative mortality rates:
➡️mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/
USA: >42.000 †
FRG: >25.000 †
Ref:
-cdc.gov/flu/about/burd…
-de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grippesai….
Comparative mortality rates:
➡️mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/
The prevalence of Influenza B in 2018 was high,
but Influenza B (Yamagata) was recently eradicated:
but Influenza B (Yamagata) was recently eradicated:
⚠️Record pediatric hospitalization trajectory—surpassing winter pandemic peak. And this is August, historically the lowest season for pediatric hospitalizations. #DeltaVariant surge will worsen for kids.🧵
HT @jeremyfaust @bhrenton @kmpanthagani #COVID19
HT @jeremyfaust @bhrenton @kmpanthagani #COVID19
2) “Perhaps more alarming than the daily hospitalizations is the magnitude of the rise in recent weeks. Obviously we cannot predict whether this worrisome trend in pediatric hospitalizations will continue... But we must not ignore it.” says @jeremyfaust insidemedicine.bulletin.com/23706803963971…
3) This is also why teachers around the country and the world are worried about return to school when kids under 12 aren’t vaccinated and many places don’t have mask mandates.
Will the newly identified sub-lineages of #Delta may initiate a new wave of #Covid19 in India? What impact the increasing prevalence of the Delta-D clade would have on global #COVID burden?
My write-up deliberating on these issues in @TheWireScience 👇 science.thewire.in/the-sciences/a…
My write-up deliberating on these issues in @TheWireScience 👇 science.thewire.in/the-sciences/a…
The @CDCgov needs to recognize risks much earlier and faster. The CDC was 6 weeks behind the @WHO in declaring #DeltaVariant a “VARIANT OF CONCERN”. That was an atrociously late declaration. I love the CDC but they need to communicate faster and clearer. straitstimes.com/world/united-s…
2) As for the masking needed for vaccinated, it was clear we needed to mask because of breakthroughs in Singapore contact tracing data. Yet CDC memo had to be leaked to become public.
3) still annoyed a bit.
⚠️TRIPLING—US cases soared ⬆️198% (~3x) in the past 2 weeks—even despite few tests performed. Hospitalizations up ⬆️43%, & deaths up ⬆️75%. #DeltaVariant is now 83% of all #COVID19–data says it’s 2x more contagious & 4x severe—akin to “COVID on steroids”🧵
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
2) 83% dominant is quite fast considering we were at just 50% 2 weeks ago. The “COVID on steroids” quote is from @ASlavitt. It’s fair.
3) I hate this timeline the world is now in…
📍MILESTONE—The #DeltaVariant has just become the new reigning variant—now 51.7% dominant in US, up from 30% just 2 weeks ago. #DeltaVariant is the world’s fastest #COVID19 variant to date, >4x higher hospitalization risk, & more partial vaccine evasive.🧵
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
2) the #DeltaVariant (dark orange) is particularly surging in the Midwest, parts of the South, and in southwest.
3) The #DeltaVariant is particularly 1 dose vaccine evasive. Only 18-30% with one dose, much lower than before. Two doses better much much weaker. Scotland found 79% two dose Pfizer efficacy for #DeltaVariant infection, while Israel found 64-70%.
[Thread in 25: Was wir über #Delta aus #Singapur lernen können]
Vorab: Jede Menge!
Singapur hat gerade einen moderaten Ausbruch mit Delta - und ein gutes Kontakttracing, aus dem sich viele Erkenntnisse gewinnen lassen.
Zudem hat man dort eine ähnliche #Impfquote wie wir.
1/25
Vorab: Jede Menge!
Singapur hat gerade einen moderaten Ausbruch mit Delta - und ein gutes Kontakttracing, aus dem sich viele Erkenntnisse gewinnen lassen.
Zudem hat man dort eine ähnliche #Impfquote wie wir.
1/25
Singapur ist mit Stand 28.06.21 praktisch der Impfdoppelgänger von Deutschland:
* 44,53% ungeimpft
* 35,51% doppelt geimpft
* dazu 19,96% einfach geimpft
* vorwiegend Impfungen mit mRNA-Impfstoffen (Moderna und BioNTech)
Das macht den Vergleich mit uns umso interessanter!
2/25
* 44,53% ungeimpft
* 35,51% doppelt geimpft
* dazu 19,96% einfach geimpft
* vorwiegend Impfungen mit mRNA-Impfstoffen (Moderna und BioNTech)
Das macht den Vergleich mit uns umso interessanter!
2/25
Was bedeutet #B16172 #delta für uns? Einige Anmerkungen
1) Bei einem R0 von 7-8 ist die Schwelle der Populationsimmunität bereits bei rund 86-88%
2) Zudem können oder wollen viele gar nicht geimpft werden, und einige sprechen auf die Impfung nicht an
1) Bei einem R0 von 7-8 ist die Schwelle der Populationsimmunität bereits bei rund 86-88%
2) Zudem können oder wollen viele gar nicht geimpft werden, und einige sprechen auf die Impfung nicht an
3) Hinzu kommt, dass delta teilweise den Impfschutz durchbricht, also symptomatische, wenn auch mildere Erkrankung erzeugt. Mehr Geimpfte als bei #alpha #b117 sind Überträger
4) Die Impfung wirkt umso schlechter, je älter man ist (Immunseneszenz).
4) Die Impfung wirkt umso schlechter, je älter man ist (Immunseneszenz).
5) Es steht nicht annähernd genug Impfstoff für die Welt zur Verfügung. Covid-19 wird somit dort noch viele Tote fordern und über Jahre eingeschleppt werden können und mutieren.
Fazit
1) Nur maximale Impfanstrengungen werden den Herbst/Winter erträglich machen
Fazit
1) Nur maximale Impfanstrengungen werden den Herbst/Winter erträglich machen
📍BREAKING—with #DeltaVariant now surging almost 50% of all #COVID19, Los Angeles County now "strongly recommends" everyone, **including folks fully vaccinated**, to wear masks indoors to curb the #Delta variant, especially when “you don’t know everyone’s vaccination status”.
2) This comes on the heels of the WHO recommending the same - that vaccinated people should still mask given then incredibly fast transmission of the #DeltaVariant and its unique severity.
3) In the UK, the #DeltaVariant is now nearly all cases, it is causing a 69% increase in cases in one week (just yesterday it was 58%), along with increasing hospitalizations and deaths.
Nová zpráva o sekvenacích do konce minulého týdne 18.6. z COG CZ je zde:
virus.img.cas.cz/f/report-cogcz… Takže na co jsme tentokrát přišli?
virus.img.cas.cz/f/report-cogcz… Takže na co jsme tentokrát přišli?
takže i nadále převažuje alfa #B117, ale taky tady máme začínající se šířící deltu #B16172 (sekvenace dobíhají postupně cca 14 dní nazad, takže poslední dva sloupečky nejsou úplné a postupně se budou doplňovat data i za dřívější odběry)
bohužel významně pokleslo množství sekvenací - a to ze dvou důvodů - jeden je dobrý - je méně pozitivních vzorků, ale druhý už tak dobrý není - nadále nejsou vysokým školám sekvenace propláceny což se odrazilo na poklesu sekvenací na BIOCEVu (fialová)
⚠️“5-10 seconds” is all one needs to transmit the #DeltaVariant, warns Queensland 🇦🇺 health officer, that it **no longer takes up o 15 minutes** to pass on #COVID19. It can be a "fleeting moment" of seconds. It indeed happened *thrice* at shopping mall.🧵
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-2…
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-2…
2) Experts say the Delta variant appears to be more transmissible across all age groups, including children.
It is spread so easily that a person in Sydney infected stranger simply by walking past them.
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-2…
It is spread so easily that a person in Sydney infected stranger simply by walking past them.
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-2…
3) NSW Chief Health Officer described the Bondi Junction incident as a "scarily fleeting" encounter.
"They are clearly facing each other but it is literally someone moving across from each other for a moment, close, but momentary," Dr Chant said.
"They are clearly facing each other but it is literally someone moving across from each other for a moment, close, but momentary," Dr Chant said.
“NO MORE THAN MERE SECONDS” of exposure in 10-60 centimeters where one man triggers several #DeltaVariant infections with brief “fleeting” contact. Thousands of shoppers at NSW🇦🇺 mass tested. Delta called “near & present danger”.
HT @lizziepearl. #COVID19
HT @lizziepearl. #COVID19
2) he “brushed past a man” in his 50’s… who became case #4. Ummm, wow. 👀
3) Like geez, we know #DeltaVariant is basically the fastest transmitting variant to date. But this kind of “fleeting contact” infection is all the more reason for masks and improved ventilation and air disinfection.
It’s coming—#DeltaVariant is now >96% dominant in 3 major counties (UK, Russia, Portugal). It is surging exponentially in the US at now 31% of all cases, up from ~10% just a week ago. The #COVID19 rise & divergence hidden by fast dropping #AlphaVariant. 🧵
on.ft.com/3xzeFpZ
on.ft.com/3xzeFpZ
2) Notice the strong divergence of #DeltaVariant vs #Alphavariant. This was why the rise of Delta was hidden so long underneath total case counts dropping and plateauing
3) this was hospitalization in the UK one week earlier. Very different than before #DeltaVariant domination. ~30% of deaths even among those fully 2 dose vaccinated, according to PHE (England’s CDC). This is the Delta.
10% of all #COVID19 hospitalizations last week were among fully vaccinated, despite >50% adults fully vaccinated in the UK— ➡️ this is the #DeltaVariant, which is 99% of all 🇬🇧 cases. I’m a big 2-dose vaccine advocate—but we still need strong precaution.🧵news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
2) Please take #DeltaVariant seriously — it’s the fastest transmission variant known to date. Much much faster. And it has somewhat vaccine evasion, especially 1 dose, and it is much more severe (higher risk of hospitalization)
3) Because #DeltaVariant is roughly 2x more contagious — ie 2x the R0 of the original virus, the R0 of Delta is likely 6-7. Let’s assume 6, and someday hit 70% *2-dose* with 90% efficacy (but AZ is ~60%), only then can we stop it… but no country is there yet.
HT @GosiaGasperoPhD
HT @GosiaGasperoPhD
España, segundo país de la UE con más #varianteDelta del coronavirus, el 9,7% de casos
Dado el retraso propio de la secuenciación y notificacion, y que el nº de casos se ha duplicado en 🇬🇧 cada 8-10 dias, el % real hoy de #b16172 será mayor del 20%
lavanguardia.com/ciencia/202106…
Dado el retraso propio de la secuenciación y notificacion, y que el nº de casos se ha duplicado en 🇬🇧 cada 8-10 dias, el % real hoy de #b16172 será mayor del 20%
lavanguardia.com/ciencia/202106…
vía @Co2Covid ☝️
Articulo de @Pablolinde
Imagen 1: @fedemartinon advierte de que hay que acelerar la 2ª dosis 💉en la franja 60-69 años
Imagen2: la experta resalta la importancia del comportamiento de los ciudadadanos pero para F. Simón lo importante es no alertar de mas
elpais.com/sociedad/2021-…
Imagen 1: @fedemartinon advierte de que hay que acelerar la 2ª dosis 💉en la franja 60-69 años
Imagen2: la experta resalta la importancia del comportamiento de los ciudadadanos pero para F. Simón lo importante es no alertar de mas
elpais.com/sociedad/2021-…
Over 350 medical workers have caught #COVID19 in Java, Indonesia 🇮🇩despite being vaccinated with Sinovac’s CoronaVac—dozens of HCW even hospitalized, officials say, as concerns grow on vaccine efficacy versus #DeltaVariant, believed to be driving cases.🧵
reuters.com/world/asia-pac…
reuters.com/world/asia-pac…
2) Most of the workers were asymptomatic and self-isolating at home, said Badai Ismoyo, head of the health office in the district of Kudus in central Java, but dozens were in hospital with high fevers and falling oxygen-saturation levels.
3) Kudus, which has about 5,000 healthcare workers, is battling an outbreak believed to be driven by the more transmissible Delta variant, which has raised its bed occupancy rates above 90%.
📍SLOW ACTION ENDANGERS HEALTH & ECONOMY—Why does an epidemic take hold? #DeltaVariant surging—but what if the CDC had warned or acted earlier? Epidemiologists say we can likely prevent a big outbreak if just a cases, but harder if hundreds or 1000’s of cases… thread 🧵 #COVID19
2) And early fast action buys us precious time for vaccinations if we acted fast. Even if spread was inevitable, we could prevent the worst of it if we bought ourselves more time to fully vaccinate and prepare for the #delt
3) In terms of travel restrictions, we all acted much too late— epidemiologists and experts were warning about India in early April already. Yet govts didn’t act until mostly late April. One major country’s CDC didn’t act until May. 👀
⚠️Confirmed—#DeltaVariant is by far the *most contagious** variant found to date, with a transmissibility that is ~2x faster than older strain. #P1 is 2nd fastest, says @WHO study.🧵
📍#B117 #Alpha—29% faster
📍#B1351 #Beta—25%
📍#P1 #Gamma—38%
📍#B16172 #Delta—97% #COVID19
📍#B117 #Alpha—29% faster
📍#B1351 #Beta—25%
📍#P1 #Gamma—38%
📍#B16172 #Delta—97% #COVID19
2) “Effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern/interest compared against each other, 64 countries, data until 3 June 2021”
eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280…
eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280…
⚠️Annoyed—the US CDC still does **not seem to classify the #DeltaVariant as a “Variant of Concern”**!! #B16172 is still merely “variant of interest” on @CDCgov website, updated just this weekend. Both @WHO & 🇬🇧 upgraded Delta to VOC weeks ago. CDC act now! cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
2) Because this is what new cases of #DeltaVariant #COVID19 is doing in the UK 🇬🇧… US 🇺🇸 is a trouble if don’t act now
3) Is #DeltaVariant growing quickly in the Us? Yes. Hell yes. Yet CDC doesn’t rate it a VOC.
⚠️90-96% of all #COVID19 in 🇬🇧 caused by #DeltaVariant.🧵
📍32% of all Delta cases visiting the hospital emergency room are at least 1 dose vaccinated
📍33% who are then hospitalized vaccinated
📍45% of all deaths got at least 1 shot—➡️ 29% got 2 shots.
theguardian.com/world/2021/jun…
📍32% of all Delta cases visiting the hospital emergency room are at least 1 dose vaccinated
📍33% who are then hospitalized vaccinated
📍45% of all deaths got at least 1 shot—➡️ 29% got 2 shots.
theguardian.com/world/2021/jun…
2) Similar #DeltaVariant worries from a Canadian hospital— ➡️Outbreak even w/ 2 dose of mRNA vaccines—16 patients & 6 healthcare staff #DeltaVariant positive. 6/16 patients & 5/6 HCWs had received 2 doses of #COVID19 vaccine; 7 patients & 1 HCW had 1 dose cbc.ca/amp/1.6063802
Delta variant fears coming true—@WHO_Europe director says #DeltaVariant of #COVID19 is "poised to take hold"—#B16172 evades 1-dose vaccine & “shows increased transmissibility & some immune escape” & more severe. It is exponentially ⬆️ in 🇬🇧 & 🇺🇸 too.🧵
thehill.com/policy/healthc…
thehill.com/policy/healthc…
2) Hans Henri Kluge expressed concern about the Delta variant, known by the scientific name B.1.617.2, pointing to recent research appearing to show it can spread quickly and infect those who have received one of two vaccine doses at higher rates than the fully vaccinated.
3) "We have been here before."
"Over the course of last summer, cases gradually rose in younger age groups and then moved into older age groups, contributing to a devastating resurgence, lockdowns and loss of life in autumn and winter of 2020. Let's not make that mistake again."
"Over the course of last summer, cases gradually rose in younger age groups and then moved into older age groups, contributing to a devastating resurgence, lockdowns and loss of life in autumn and winter of 2020. Let's not make that mistake again."
「2020東京五輪について世界規模の議論が必要」とする2021/6/12付け英医学誌『ランセット』の論説全文PDFをJPEG化しました。下記でHTML版全文の閲覧とPDFのダウンロードが可能です。AcrobatのDocument Cloudにアップロード済みなので後で読みます。
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
ランセットは、実は現首相の就任時にこんな公開書簡を掲載して警告していました。この忠告に従わなかった末路が現在の日本の姿。
【英日対訳】DeepL翻訳：ランセット論文「日本の新首相への公開書簡」(An open letter to Japan's new Prime Minister」｜Lancet (2020.9.28)
note.com/tkatsumi06j/n/…
【英日対訳】DeepL翻訳：ランセット論文「日本の新首相への公開書簡」(An open letter to Japan's new Prime Minister」｜Lancet (2020.9.28)
note.com/tkatsumi06j/n/…
コロナ禍の日本の対応は初っ端から専門家に指摘しまくられていました。
#CoronavirusUpdate 【英日対訳】論文紹介記事「クルーズ船での検疫の結果コロナ感染者が増加」＋論文本文の摘要全文と結論全文の抄訳｜スウェーデン・ウメオ大学(2020.2.28)
note.com/tkatsumi06j/n/…
#CoronavirusUpdate 【英日対訳】論文紹介記事「クルーズ船での検疫の結果コロナ感染者が増加」＋論文本文の摘要全文と結論全文の抄訳｜スウェーデン・ウメオ大学(2020.2.28)
note.com/tkatsumi06j/n/…
(1/n)
#STIKO hat ihre (nicht) Empfehlung von gestern ausführlich begründet (danke @HInerle für den Hinweis) - ein paar Gedanken dazu (wird ein langer Thread, werde nach & nach ergänzen).
Disclaimer: persönliche Einschätzung, KEINE Handlungsempfehlung!!
#STIKO hat ihre (nicht) Empfehlung von gestern ausführlich begründet (danke @HInerle für den Hinweis) - ein paar Gedanken dazu (wird ein langer Thread, werde nach & nach ergänzen).
Disclaimer: persönliche Einschätzung, KEINE Handlungsempfehlung!!
(2/n)
Vorab und sehr allgemein: #STIKO stuft die Impfung von 12-17 Jährigen grundsätzlich als sowohl sicher und wirksam ein, empfiehlt aber ZUM JETZIGEN Zeitpunkt noch nicht für alle.
Vorab und sehr allgemein: #STIKO stuft die Impfung von 12-17 Jährigen grundsätzlich als sowohl sicher und wirksam ein, empfiehlt aber ZUM JETZIGEN Zeitpunkt noch nicht für alle.
(3/n)
Beim "jetzigen Zeitpunkt" wird abgewogen, dass es vorrangig zu Impfende gibt - denke das streitet kaum jemand ab & es gibt Hoffnung, dass die Empfehlung bald anders aussehen wird.
Warum #STIKO für eine neue Einordnung nur Daten aus D verwenden will, ist mir schleierhaft.
Beim "jetzigen Zeitpunkt" wird abgewogen, dass es vorrangig zu Impfende gibt - denke das streitet kaum jemand ab & es gibt Hoffnung, dass die Empfehlung bald anders aussehen wird.
Warum #STIKO für eine neue Einordnung nur Daten aus D verwenden will, ist mir schleierhaft.
【注目】— #デルタ株 は世界中で最大の懸念事項となっており、かつ、優勢となってきている。なぜか❓
📍より感染力が高いから
📍より重症化率が高いから(入院リスク⬆️)
📍よりワクチンの効果が薄く中和率が低いから—1回接種では不十分
動画 📺 1/2 #新型コロナ
HT @VickiGSP @IndependentSage
📍より感染力が高いから
📍より重症化率が高いから(入院リスク⬆️)
📍よりワクチンの効果が薄く中和率が低いから—1回接種では不十分
動画 📺 1/2 #新型コロナ
HT @VickiGSP @IndependentSage
2) 重要なのは、 #デルタ株 #B16172 が、 #アルファ株 #B117 が減退するなかで増加していること。多くの者がこのことを見過ごしていたが、🇬🇧英国では #デルタ株 は毎週倍化しているのだ！
3) 🇮🇳インドの医師たちは、 #デルタ株 は子どもに対してより重症化率が高く、またより多くの子どもが感染していると懸念の声を挙げていた。🇸🇬シンガポールの保健相も[今年5月の段階で] 多くの子どもが影響を受けていると警鐘を鳴らしていた。[参考]
