Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #b117
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Descriptive analysis #Covid19 dynamics April-August 2021.
Total population analyses might distinguish between indiviual- and group risk of infecion.
Data rivm sourced:
Total population analyses might distinguish between indiviual- and group risk of infecion.
Data rivm sourced:
Summer 2021 allowed for easing #Nonpharmaceuticalinterventions.
Vaccination effort was geared up.
Alpha was mostly the dominant VOC.
outbreak.info/location-repor…
Vaccination effort was geared up.
Alpha was mostly the dominant VOC.
outbreak.info/location-repor…
Given age-stratified #TestTraceIsolate population wide CaseFatalityRates (nCFR), estimates were compared to cbs reported excess mortality, adjusted for absence of Influenza etc, and compared to the rivm estimated prevalence of contagious people:
⚠️The #DeltaVariant causes 2.26x ⬆️ more hospitalization than older #B117 #AlphaVariant in new UK study—(results roughly similar whether unvaxxed or just 1-dose vaccinated). This means Delta is 3.6x more severe than Wuhan 1.0. Mask+booster vax+ventilate. thelancet.com/action/showPdf…
2) Folks, I’ve been warning about #DeltaVariant being ~2.5x more severe than Alpha and ~4x more severe than original strain for many months. The data was already out there in earlier reports!!! Yet countless people tried to deny the data—despite it was from Scotland and UK’s CDC.
3) How do we get Delta is 3.6-4x more severe than Wuhan strain? Because Alpha variant #B117 was already 64% more severe than the original earlier strain. Thus 1.64*2.5= #DeltaVariant is *4.1x* the risk of hospitalization vs original! And 1.64*2.26= 3.6x. ?
⚠️”In last 10 days alone, before school has even opened, 4 school-aged children have been admitted to hospitals.” ~a Florida school superintendent begs @GovRonDeSantis for temporary mask mandate in schools. This FL kid was in pediatric ICU for 3 days⬇️ 🧵
2) Leon County School District Superintendent Rocky Hanna is calling on @GovRonDeSantis to give school districts "flexibility and autonomy" to act to protect students amid a surge in COVID cases that has taxed hospitals locally & statewide. @RonDeSantisFL
google.com/amp/s/amp.tall…
google.com/amp/s/amp.tall…
3) Hanna on Wednesday morning specifically said he wants to temporarily mandate masks in schools for teachers and students pre-K through 8th grade "who are not eligible to receive a vaccine."
💡UPGRADE TO PREMIUM MASKS—"We need to talk about #BetterMasking. We need to talk #N95 Respirators—would do a lot for both people who are not yet vaccinated & protect others who might become infected." ➡️ WE NEED KN95/N95/ELASTOMERIC for #DeltaVariant.🧵
2) 7 months ago, I called on everyone to switch to premium masks when the #B117 #AlphaVariant was surging. Since then FFP2 and KN95 masks have become super cheap and common. Even N95 respirator has now become more common as well. And Elastomeric respirators are more common too.
3) Lots of studies show that the respirator-grade premium masks are what we truly need. The leaky partial protection of cloth and flimsy unfitted surgical alone just not enough.
⚠️Holy Mother—the worst CDC #DeltaVariant report ever:
📌MORE CONTAGIOUS than Smallpox*
📌DOUBLE transmission of Wuhan 1.0*
📌MORE SEVERE than ever*
📌 Vaccinated can transmit* & breakthrough viral loads ~ unvaxxed.
➡️*Ever item I have warned before🧵
context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/def…
📌MORE CONTAGIOUS than Smallpox*
📌DOUBLE transmission of Wuhan 1.0*
📌MORE SEVERE than ever*
📌 Vaccinated can transmit* & breakthrough viral loads ~ unvaxxed.
➡️*Ever item I have warned before🧵
context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/def…
2) “The war has changed” is very similar to the ‘Pandemic 2.0’ language that I have been warning for months and months now with #DeltaVariant. This is not your old slow Wuhan 1.0 strain anymore.
washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07…
washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07…
3) CDC internal report also reveals the results of an “CANARY IN A COAL MINE* unpublished Massachusetts contact tracing study revealing an outbreak of vaccinated to vaccinated transmission that was genomic sequencing confirmed. ➡️ why the hell is this not published yet?!?!?!
📍1 in 5–Breakthrough & “Persistent Symptoms”: in fully vaccinated health care workers, lower neutralizing antibody titers ➡️ breakthrough #SARSCoV2 infections. Most were mild, but persistent symptoms occurred in ~1 in 5 (19%) breakthroughs for >6 weeks.
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
2) And this wasn’t even #DeltaVariant — this was the older winter #B117 #alphaVariant from the UK 🇬🇧— so we expect #DeltaVariant to be maybe worse given the viral load. Also viral load only slightly higher in the breakthroughs.
3) Dr Hyde is right that it could be an overestimate since they probably missed a lot of asymptomatic cases. But still, even among symptomatic breakthroughs- that’s a lot.
Was bedeutet #B16172 #delta für uns? Einige Anmerkungen
1) Bei einem R0 von 7-8 ist die Schwelle der Populationsimmunität bereits bei rund 86-88%
2) Zudem können oder wollen viele gar nicht geimpft werden, und einige sprechen auf die Impfung nicht an
1) Bei einem R0 von 7-8 ist die Schwelle der Populationsimmunität bereits bei rund 86-88%
2) Zudem können oder wollen viele gar nicht geimpft werden, und einige sprechen auf die Impfung nicht an
3) Hinzu kommt, dass delta teilweise den Impfschutz durchbricht, also symptomatische, wenn auch mildere Erkrankung erzeugt. Mehr Geimpfte als bei #alpha #b117 sind Überträger
4) Die Impfung wirkt umso schlechter, je älter man ist (Immunseneszenz).
4) Die Impfung wirkt umso schlechter, je älter man ist (Immunseneszenz).
5) Es steht nicht annähernd genug Impfstoff für die Welt zur Verfügung. Covid-19 wird somit dort noch viele Tote fordern und über Jahre eingeschleppt werden können und mutieren.
Fazit
1) Nur maximale Impfanstrengungen werden den Herbst/Winter erträglich machen
Fazit
1) Nur maximale Impfanstrengungen werden den Herbst/Winter erträglich machen
Studie belegt #Modelle: Schulen treiben die Pandemie
Diese Studie zeigt, dass in der 2. #Welle der #Lockdown wenig brachte. Erst durch das zusätzliche Schliessen der Geschäfte und #Schulen setzte in Deutschland eine positive Wirkung ein #twlz #RKI #KMK
thelancet.com/journals/lanep…
Diese Studie zeigt, dass in der 2. #Welle der #Lockdown wenig brachte. Erst durch das zusätzliche Schliessen der Geschäfte und #Schulen setzte in Deutschland eine positive Wirkung ein #twlz #RKI #KMK
thelancet.com/journals/lanep…
Wissenschaftliche Evidence - #Schulen treiben die #Pandemie: Wie haben #RKI/#KMK nach 18 Monaten #Kitas und #Schulen aufgestellt? Keine #Raumluftkonzepte, nicht einmal #Hepaluftfilter, keine geeigneten Hygienepläne, kaum vorbereitet auf Distanzlernen #twlz
zur Krönung: Die #Maskenpflicht wird in den meisten Bundesländern - für die nicht pandemiegerechten #Kitas /#Schulen - aufgehoben. Anstatt #Raumluftkonzepte und #FFP3 beginnt nach den Sommerferien die nächste Runde Infektions-Roulette - diesmal mit #Delta
Nová zpráva o sekvenacích do konce minulého týdne 18.6. z COG CZ je zde:
virus.img.cas.cz/f/report-cogcz… Takže na co jsme tentokrát přišli?
virus.img.cas.cz/f/report-cogcz… Takže na co jsme tentokrát přišli?
takže i nadále převažuje alfa #B117, ale taky tady máme začínající se šířící deltu #B16172 (sekvenace dobíhají postupně cca 14 dní nazad, takže poslední dva sloupečky nejsou úplné a postupně se budou doplňovat data i za dřívější odběry)
bohužel významně pokleslo množství sekvenací - a to ze dvou důvodů - jeden je dobrý - je méně pozitivních vzorků, ale druhý už tak dobrý není - nadále nejsou vysokým školám sekvenace propláceny což se odrazilo na poklesu sekvenací na BIOCEVu (fialová)
📍Serious—Biden warns #DeltaVariant “will leave unvaccinated people even more vulnerable. It is more easily transmissible, potentially deadlier & particularly dangerous for young people. if you have 1 shot, get 2nd shot as soon as you can” #COVID19
cnbc.com/2021/06/18/bid…
cnbc.com/2021/06/18/bid…
2) #DeltaVariant is the most serious worrisome variant known to date— its leaps and bounds faster transmission than other variants. See new study thread 🧵
3) just this week, CDC (at last) declared and upgraded the warning level of #DeltaVariant a “variant of concern”
‘#Spike protein’ is the major target of #NAbs in infected/vaccinated people. The prefusion conformation of the Spike represents the most relevant target because Abs can successfully interfere w/ infection only if they prevent binding to target cells or prevent fusion itself 1/
Various approaches are adopted to express ‘#Spike’ protein in vivo, such as nucleic acid structures & virus vectors. Alternatively, other vaccine platforms like recombinant protein particles & inactivated vaccines can directly deliver this protein 2/
Most structural studies of the wild-type spike protein exhibited one #RBD in the 'open' conformation. By contrast, 2 or 3 RBDs were observed in the open conformation in the more infective #D614G mutant--the RBD #conformation plays a vital role in the infectivity of SARSCoV2 3/
⚠️Confirmed—#DeltaVariant is by far the *most contagious** variant found to date, with a transmissibility that is ~2x faster than older strain. #P1 is 2nd fastest, says @WHO study.🧵
📍#B117 #Alpha—29% faster
📍#B1351 #Beta—25%
📍#P1 #Gamma—38%
📍#B16172 #Delta—97% #COVID19
📍#B117 #Alpha—29% faster
📍#B1351 #Beta—25%
📍#P1 #Gamma—38%
📍#B16172 #Delta—97% #COVID19
2) “Effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern/interest compared against each other, 64 countries, data until 3 June 2021”
eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280…
eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280…
BREAKING—CDC now officially declares #DeltaVariant a “variant of concern”—because much more transmissible (50% faster than #B117, 2x than original strain), more severe (2.5x hospitalization risk than B117, 4x original) & 1 dose vaccine evasive.🧵 #COVID19
cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
2) This comes on the heels of the urgent advocacy by many to demand CDC upgrade to VOC. Even WHO and UK 🇬🇧 raised #DeltaVariant to VOC weeks ago. CDC is very late on this.
3) We have known #DeltaVariant has been rising fast in the Us for quite a while. Over a week ago, we already knew it was exponentially rising across the US. It’s doubling every 2 weeks overall, but doubling every week in certain states.
Good news—Novavax protein-subunit vaccine phase 3 trial shown to to be 90.4% effective overall, 100% against moderate to severe disease. This is different type from mRNA and from AZ/J&J adenovirus vaccines, and different from inactivated types. #COVID19
nytimes.com/2021/06/14/hea…
nytimes.com/2021/06/14/hea…
3) The protein units of the spike are harvested and then assembled together. There is no virus—just proteins linked together.
⚠️90-96% of all #COVID19 in 🇬🇧 caused by #DeltaVariant.🧵
📍32% of all Delta cases visiting the hospital emergency room are at least 1 dose vaccinated
📍33% who are then hospitalized vaccinated
📍45% of all deaths got at least 1 shot—➡️ 29% got 2 shots.
theguardian.com/world/2021/jun…
📍32% of all Delta cases visiting the hospital emergency room are at least 1 dose vaccinated
📍33% who are then hospitalized vaccinated
📍45% of all deaths got at least 1 shot—➡️ 29% got 2 shots.
theguardian.com/world/2021/jun…
2) Similar #DeltaVariant worries from a Canadian hospital— ➡️Outbreak even w/ 2 dose of mRNA vaccines—16 patients & 6 healthcare staff #DeltaVariant positive. 6/16 patients & 5/6 HCWs had received 2 doses of #COVID19 vaccine; 7 patients & 1 HCW had 1 dose cbc.ca/amp/1.6063802
📍Outbreak even w/ 2 dose of mRNA vaccines—🇨🇦 hospital—16 patients & 6 healthcare staff #DeltaVariant positive. 6/16 patients & 5/6 HCWs had received 2 doses of #COVID19 vaccine; 7 patients & 1 healthcare worker had 1 dose. 1 patient now in ICU. #dontletup
cbc.ca/news/canada/ca…
cbc.ca/news/canada/ca…
2) Outbreaks of the delta variant at the Foothills Medical Centre in Calgary are sparking concern as some with both doses of the vaccine are still getting affected with the variant.
"We're scared, very concerned," said Wayne Stopa, a RN of United Nurses of Alberta Local 115.
"We're scared, very concerned," said Wayne Stopa, a RN of United Nurses of Alberta Local 115.
3) "A lot of us have had the double vaccines already … and to find out people are still getting affected with the delta variants is quite concerning to all the staff."
Got a bit curious about the US v. UK as it relates to the #DeltaVariant. Some good news on that front for the US: at least in the early stages, the US rate of increase is nowhere near the UK.
🧵thread🧵
🧵thread🧵
First: I used covariants.org/per-country, which shows percentage of sequenced variants based on 2-week blocks. One potential point of confusion to note when you use the site: the dates along the x-axis indicate the *start* of the 2-week period.
Here are the percentages of sequences that made up the #DeltaVariant in the UK (by 2-week period):
3/22-4/04: 0.09%
4/05-4/18: 1.45%
4/19-5/02: 8.92%
5/03-5/16: 33.17%
5/17-5/30: 72.58%
3/22-4/04: 0.09%
4/05-4/18: 1.45%
4/19-5/02: 8.92%
5/03-5/16: 33.17%
5/17-5/30: 72.58%
(1/n)
#STIKO hat ihre (nicht) Empfehlung von gestern ausführlich begründet (danke @HInerle für den Hinweis) - ein paar Gedanken dazu (wird ein langer Thread, werde nach & nach ergänzen).
Disclaimer: persönliche Einschätzung, KEINE Handlungsempfehlung!!
#STIKO hat ihre (nicht) Empfehlung von gestern ausführlich begründet (danke @HInerle für den Hinweis) - ein paar Gedanken dazu (wird ein langer Thread, werde nach & nach ergänzen).
Disclaimer: persönliche Einschätzung, KEINE Handlungsempfehlung!!
(2/n)
Vorab und sehr allgemein: #STIKO stuft die Impfung von 12-17 Jährigen grundsätzlich als sowohl sicher und wirksam ein, empfiehlt aber ZUM JETZIGEN Zeitpunkt noch nicht für alle.
Vorab und sehr allgemein: #STIKO stuft die Impfung von 12-17 Jährigen grundsätzlich als sowohl sicher und wirksam ein, empfiehlt aber ZUM JETZIGEN Zeitpunkt noch nicht für alle.
(3/n)
Beim "jetzigen Zeitpunkt" wird abgewogen, dass es vorrangig zu Impfende gibt - denke das streitet kaum jemand ab & es gibt Hoffnung, dass die Empfehlung bald anders aussehen wird.
Warum #STIKO für eine neue Einordnung nur Daten aus D verwenden will, ist mir schleierhaft.
Beim "jetzigen Zeitpunkt" wird abgewogen, dass es vorrangig zu Impfende gibt - denke das streitet kaum jemand ab & es gibt Hoffnung, dass die Empfehlung bald anders aussehen wird.
Warum #STIKO für eine neue Einordnung nur Daten aus D verwenden will, ist mir schleierhaft.
【注目】— #デルタ株 は世界中で最大の懸念事項となっており、かつ、優勢となってきている。なぜか❓
📍より感染力が高いから
📍より重症化率が高いから(入院リスク⬆️)
📍よりワクチンの効果が薄く中和率が低いから—1回接種では不十分
動画 📺 1/2 #新型コロナ
HT @VickiGSP @IndependentSage
📍より感染力が高いから
📍より重症化率が高いから(入院リスク⬆️)
📍よりワクチンの効果が薄く中和率が低いから—1回接種では不十分
動画 📺 1/2 #新型コロナ
HT @VickiGSP @IndependentSage
2) 重要なのは、 #デルタ株 #B16172 が、 #アルファ株 #B117 が減退するなかで増加していること。多くの者がこのことを見過ごしていたが、🇬🇧英国では #デルタ株 は毎週倍化しているのだ！
3) 🇮🇳インドの医師たちは、 #デルタ株 は子どもに対してより重症化率が高く、またより多くの子どもが感染していると懸念の声を挙げていた。🇸🇬シンガポールの保健相も[今年5月の段階で] 多くの子どもが影響を受けていると警鐘を鳴らしていた。[参考]
PAY ATTENTION—the #DeltaVariant is the biggest worry & becoming more dominant worldwide. Why?
📍More contagious
📍More severe (⬆️hospitalization risk)
📍Lower vaccine efficacy/neutralization—1 dose just not enough.
Video 📺 part 1 of 2 #COVID19
HT @VickiGSP @IndependentSage
📍More contagious
📍More severe (⬆️hospitalization risk)
📍Lower vaccine efficacy/neutralization—1 dose just not enough.
Video 📺 part 1 of 2 #COVID19
HT @VickiGSP @IndependentSage
2) It’s critical to recognize that the #DeltaVariant is rising underneath the decrease of the #AlphaVariant #B117. Many have been complacent about this. But Delta is doubling every week now in 🇬🇧!
3) India 🇮🇳 doctors have been sharing concerns that #DeltaVariant is more severe / affecting more kids. Singapore 🇸🇬 MOH is also warning it is affecting children a lot.
#CoronavirusUpdate 2021/6/8🇬🇧「英国でいま最も急成長している懸念すべき変異株は所謂“インド株”と呼ばれる #デルタ株 」🇺🇸米臨床疫学者のディン医師。この #B16172 変異株は、ワクチン接種率の高い英国を「破壊し尽くそうとしている」と警鐘。その理由は『免疫回避力』にある。以下紐解く🧵。
2) #デルタ株 は🇺🇸米国でも増加が見込まれており、🇮🇳インドや🇬🇧英国と同じように他の変異株を凌駕する可能性がある。予想では遅くとも7月末までには米国でも最も支配的な変異株となる。以下はその拡大予測。
🇩🇪独 @GISAID データに基づく🇧🇪 @Twenseleers 教授の資料より。
🇩🇪独 @GISAID データに基づく🇧🇪 @Twenseleers 教授の資料より。
Zusammenfassung, was man aktuell über die (in Indien als #B1617.2 beschriebene) #Delta-Variante wissen sollte:
Delta ist wohl nochmals deutlich ansteckender als Alpha (#B117) und führt dadurch in manchen Regionen (Indien, UK) zur starken Ausbreitung. Neue Daten…
🧵 1/n
Delta ist wohl nochmals deutlich ansteckender als Alpha (#B117) und führt dadurch in manchen Regionen (Indien, UK) zur starken Ausbreitung. Neue Daten…
🧵 1/n
… aus UK zeigen eine >50% höhere „sek. Angriffsrate“. Das heisst, wenn ein mit dem „ursprünglichen Virus“ Infizierter von 100 Kontaktpersonen 10 ansteckte, steckt ein Alpha Infizierter 15 an und jemand mit Delta bereits 23!
2/n
2/n
Das Virus hat seine Infektiosität und damit seinen R-Wert also mittlerweile um mehr als das 2-fache gesteigert! Siehe auch „Der Kampf um R“ ⬇️. Wenn bestimmte Umstände zusammenkommen (wieder mehr Kontakte, weil niedrige Gesamt-Inzidenz;…
3/
3/
Troubling—the worst variant to date, the #DeltaVariant is now the new fastest growing variant in US. This is the so-called “Indian” variant #B16172 that is ravaging UK 🇬🇧 despite high vaccinations because it has immune evasion properties. Here is why it’s trouble—🧵. #COVID19
2) We are expecting the #DeltaVariant to continue growing in the US, outpacing all other variants just like it has in India 🇮🇳 and UK 🇬🇧, and become dominant in US by end of July, if not earlier.
Here is the prediction track - via @TWenseleers from @GISAID data.
Here is the prediction track - via @TWenseleers from @GISAID data.
3) here was how it overtook everything in the UK 🇬🇧— it will happen soon in the US as well.
Why did we not realize kids transmitted #SARSCoV2 last year?
Because with the original strain, #COVID19 was milder & more asymptomatic—hence we **didn’t test or measure** kids much.
But #B117 (Alpha) and #B16172 (#DeltaVariant) are different—more severe. 🧵
HT @sketchplanator
Because with the original strain, #COVID19 was milder & more asymptomatic—hence we **didn’t test or measure** kids much.
But #B117 (Alpha) and #B16172 (#DeltaVariant) are different—more severe. 🧵
HT @sketchplanator
2) Yes damnit, kids transmit, get #LongCovidKids, and can get hospitalized.
3) How is the #DeltaVariant different? Please read this thread 🧵 below….
