Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #US10Y
Most recents (11)
Trust in #Dollar #UST as a reserve currency eroding rapidly, with yields on #US10Y #US2Y et al. exploding before our very eyes.
Every principle of global economic stability & equality and functions underlying the original #BrettonWoods agreement is more or less long gone.
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Every principle of global economic stability & equality and functions underlying the original #BrettonWoods agreement is more or less long gone.
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Due to the #petrodollar underpinning 85%+ of our global financial system, and because its abandonment would cause a hard reset (and the strength of #American industrial #militarycomplex), #DXY still reigns as #reservecurrency.
But the trust component is rapidly diminishing.
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But the trust component is rapidly diminishing.
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Obviously, I'm not predicting that we're going away from it as a reserve currency. Not deliberately, anyway.
But military might, a value derived from underlying commodities (RIP 1971), and trust (RIP 202X?) are historically the 3 musketeers keeping reserve currencies on top.
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But military might, a value derived from underlying commodities (RIP 1971), and trust (RIP 202X?) are historically the 3 musketeers keeping reserve currencies on top.
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Good data, Bad data
global market #analysis 9/18
Reminder #1, we're still in #yield #inversion on the #US10Y and #US02Y bonds, which won't be changing any time soon. tradingview.com/x/UweZFYmE/
global market #analysis 9/18
Reminder #1, we're still in #yield #inversion on the #US10Y and #US02Y bonds, which won't be changing any time soon. tradingview.com/x/UweZFYmE/
I still am guessing a 1% #rate #hike (100bps) but it could be 0.75% again, who knows. Probably that or larger because I bet the fed will want more breathing room. At some point I'll write on inflation and how people get it wrong, but now's not the time.
Don't forget you still have the bad form of influencers out there trying to just get follows all day, tells you we haven't hit bottom or anywhere near - because he's not telling people how to sell.
🚨Worth studying: 👇
"The Anatomy of the Bond Market Turbulence of 1994" - Bank for International Settlements
link in thread below. 🧵
#banks #riskparity #assetallocation #risk #riskmanagement #rates #us10y #bonds
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"The Anatomy of the Bond Market Turbulence of 1994" - Bank for International Settlements
link in thread below. 🧵
#banks #riskparity #assetallocation #risk #riskmanagement #rates #us10y #bonds
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Link to the paper from Bank of International Settlements
#banks #riskparity #assetallocation #risk #riskmanagement #rates #us10y #bonds
bis.org/publ/work32.pdf
Link to the paper from Bank of International Settlements
#banks #riskparity #assetallocation #risk #riskmanagement #rates #us10y #bonds
bis.org/publ/work32.pdf
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📉@FortuneMagazine's coverage in 2013 for the 1994 Great Bond Massacre.
#banks #riskparity #assetallocation #risk #riskmanagement #rates #us10y #bonds
fortune.com/2013/02/03/the…
📉@FortuneMagazine's coverage in 2013 for the 1994 Great Bond Massacre.
#banks #riskparity #assetallocation #risk #riskmanagement #rates #us10y #bonds
fortune.com/2013/02/03/the…
US 10-year treasury yield rises to 2.067%, highest since July 2019. $USD #US10Y
German bonds extend drop; 10y yield rises to highest since 2018. $EUR
Italy’s 10-year government bond yield rises to highest since February 23 at 1.948%, up 8 bps on day. $EUR
US stock indices futures trim some losses after NFP report, S&P 500 futures last down 0.5%, Nasdaq futures down 0.2%.
$USD $SPX $DJI $IXIC #NFP
$USD $SPX $DJI $IXIC #NFP
US Dollar Index pares some losses to trade at 98.54. $USD $DXY
U.S. Dec. Nonfarm Payrolls: 199K, [Est. 400K, Prev. 249K]
U.S. Dec. Unemployment Rate: 3.9%, [Est. 4.1%, Prev. 4.2%]
#US #NFP #Nonfarm #Unemployment
U.S. Dec. Unemployment Rate: 3.9%, [Est. 4.1%, Prev. 4.2%]
#US #NFP #Nonfarm #Unemployment
US Treasury yields fall after NFP; 10-year yield last at 1.7266%.
#US10Y $USD
#US10Y $USD
Does the #US10Y yield puzzle affect India? An earlier tweet covered the various angles to the US10Y yield puzzle. The perceived softness around #USgrowth appears to stand-out as a prominent reason. During the same time last week, we saw a sharp rise in the Indian 10Y...(1/12)
...yield to 6.18%. This appears to have been on the back of the #RBI's surprising (disappointing for traders/underwriters) choice of picking relatively illiquid papers for its new tranche of G-SAP 2.0. The announcement of a new 10Y benchmark paper auctioned on...(2/12)
...Friday, with a higher traded yield was another reason. Are the US and Indian bond markets related in anyway? The answer is an obvious yes. Given that the US is a key global driver, the #Fed's policy rates naturally push monetary policy of emerging markets and...(3/12)
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Thread on Intermarket Relationship 1999-2021
Historical Correlation between #US30 #DowJones, #US100 #Nasdaq, #Gold #XAUUSD, #Brent #Crude, #copper #US10Y
1. US 30 / US 100 vs US 10Y
US30 / US100 was at ~2 multiple in 2000 and it is now at same level in 2021
Thread on Intermarket Relationship 1999-2021
Historical Correlation between #US30 #DowJones, #US100 #Nasdaq, #Gold #XAUUSD, #Brent #Crude, #copper #US10Y
1. US 30 / US 100 vs US 10Y
US30 / US100 was at ~2 multiple in 2000 and it is now at same level in 2021
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Above chart shows that sole factor responsible for this anomaly is US 10Y rates
Rates were kept for real economy to recover, generation of jobs etc. however it has clearly backfired.
US Tech definitely does not deserve this kind of valuation
Above chart shows that sole factor responsible for this anomaly is US 10Y rates
Rates were kept for real economy to recover, generation of jobs etc. however it has clearly backfired.
US Tech definitely does not deserve this kind of valuation
3/n
The multiple of 2 in 2000 went to 9 in 2001 represents the US tech bubble burst.
In todays terms if 2 were to go to 9, Dow would be at 25000 and Nasdaq ~2700 or any such other level. It may not hit 9 since tech has much larger role to play today vs 2000,
The multiple of 2 in 2000 went to 9 in 2001 represents the US tech bubble burst.
In todays terms if 2 were to go to 9, Dow would be at 25000 and Nasdaq ~2700 or any such other level. It may not hit 9 since tech has much larger role to play today vs 2000,
POWELL: FED WON'T RAISE RATES UNTIL CONDITIONS FULFILLED.
POWELL: KEY THING IS T0 KEEP 2% INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ANCHORED.
FED'S POWELL SAYS FED STRONGLY COMMITTED TO ACHIEVING ITS GOALS
$USD
$USD
FED'S POWELL: WE'RE STILL A LONG WAY FROM OUR GOALS.
FED'S POWELL: GOOD REASON TO EXPECT JOB CREATION TO PICK UP.
$USD #US10Y
$USD #US10Y
With US Dollar Index #DXY seems to be bottoming and US 10 Year Yield #US10Y seems to be topping, the Macros appear to be in place to disrupt the Equities.
However, I must make certain things very clear.
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However, I must make certain things very clear.
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One, the Inter Market Movement is not exactly point-to-point. That is, if DXY & US10Y turn on a particular day, it doesn't mean that Equities also turn on the same day itself. The past experience shows that there can be a lag or sometimes a substantial lag of up to 1-2 Months.
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In 2020 only, US10Y topped out on 31st December 2019, where as Equities made the turn only after 20th Feb 2020.
Secondly, there can be a further lag between the US Equities and the Emerging Market or India in particular.
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Secondly, there can be a further lag between the US Equities and the Emerging Market or India in particular.
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