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#ExtremeWeather #Emnati #TCEmnati Update:
Recent @NOAA GFS simulation model runs for #Emnati are continuing to show the storm turning towards the south as it is north of Reunion island which would mitigate the worst threats to #Madagscar.
Impact comment from RMSC/@MeteoFrance
Recent @NOAA GFS simulation model runs for #Emnati are continuing to show the storm turning towards the south as it is north of Reunion island which would mitigate the worst threats to #Madagscar.
Impact comment from RMSC/@MeteoFrance
The model guidance though is unclear (image below shows latest @ECMWF model landfall solution). The numerical model guidance is discussed from the same @MeteoFrance advisory issued at midnight.
The official track still shows catastrophic landfall in #Batsirai affected areas.
The official track still shows catastrophic landfall in #Batsirai affected areas.
@ECMWF @meteofrance Spaghetti ensemble runs below for GEFS (L) and EPS (R) (right).] These show the current trajectory disagreement clearly.
[HT to @WXNB_ : ]
As he says an improved impact outcome for Madagascar will likely mean a worse result for La Reunion.
[HT to @WXNB_ : ]
As he says an improved impact outcome for Madagascar will likely mean a worse result for La Reunion.
