Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Soybeans
Most recents (24)
Harvested area for U.S. #soybeans fell toward the low end of the trade range. The overall 580k drop was driven by mid-south & eastern states, along with a 900k acre combined reduction across IL-IA-SD. Planted acres = 87.5M (was 88 in Aug). 
Trade's been wanting higher soy acres since the low side shocker in June. IMO, we might be placing too much emphasis on FSA data or are drawing incorrect conclusions from it. The way the data is collected has changed in recent years, so "completeness" analyses prob aren't useful.
In analysts' defense, here's their planting guesses for #soybeans vs USDA actual this year:
March poll: 88.7M
March 31 actual: 91M
June poll: 90.4M
June 30 actual: 88.3M
Sept actual: 87.5M
That March survey REALLY threw the ideas off for much of this year...
March poll: 88.7M
March 31 actual: 91M
June poll: 90.4M
June 30 actual: 88.3M
Sept actual: 87.5M
That March survey REALLY threw the ideas off for much of this year...
1/ "The Export Sales Data Snafu," by @JosephJanzen bit.ly/3QzFP9p
The absence of regular export sales reports raises at least two questions.
First, what is the state of export sales for the old-crop 2021-22 and new-crop 2022-23 marketing years for #corn and #soybeans?
The absence of regular export sales reports raises at least two questions.
First, what is the state of export sales for the old-crop 2021-22 and new-crop 2022-23 marketing years for #corn and #soybeans?
2/ Based on the information we do have, prospects for old-crop US #corn and #soybean exports are mixed bit.ly/3QzFP9p
3/ A second, broader question pertains to the value of having publicly available USDA export sales data for agricultural commodity markets.
Past instances where USDA reports were not released due to federal government shutdowns shed some light on this question.
Past instances where USDA reports were not released due to federal government shutdowns shed some light on this question.
North Dakota is planting #corn & #soybeans at a record slow pace, corn by a comfortable margin. Only 56% of ND's corn was planted by May 29, and May 25 was the last day for most ND farmers to plant 🌽 and be fully eligible for elected crop insurance. ND grows 3% of U.S. corn.
North Dakota grows 5% of U.S. #soybeans, a large portion of which get exported to China. Only 23% of ND's beans were planted by May 29 vs 86% last year. Final crop insurance planting date is June 10, but to complete planting, ND cannot have any more rainy episodes from here.
North Dakota's spring #wheat planting is no longer slowest ever (but it's close) at 59% complete by May 29. Final planting date is either May 31 or June 5, but 91% of ND's wheat should be planted by now. ND grows half of the country's protein-rich spring wheat.
May 24: Most-active CBOT #corn futures settled below the 50-day moving average for the first time since Oct. 21, 2021. The settle of $7.71-3/4 per bushel is 6.4% off the April 29 high of $8.24-1/2. 100-day avg as of Tuesday is about $7.14.
A longer term picture. Closing below the 50-day avg is generally a negative technical sign, but it isn't guaranteed. Corn settled below the 50-day on March 30, 2021 for the 1st time since Aug. 12, 2020, then didn't do it again til June. Though now, corn is near historic highs.
U.S. planting progress and China/Brazil trade prospects weighed down the corn market Tuesday. U.S. corn planting is still historically slow, but not 2019, no-end-in-sight slow. China cleared Brazilian corn for import, causing concerns for US competitiveness into China.
The Indiana #CropWatch22 #corn was planted May 19, the 9th of 11 total. North Dakota & Ohio plan on this week, but highly weather dependent. Drought this year in Kansas allowed it to be the only Crop Watch corn field planted earlier than in 2021.
#CropWatch22 added #soybeans in South Dakota, W Iowa and Ohio last week. Just North Dakota remains, and the potential timing is totally unknown yet. Things are day by day in ND right now, and the focus is on corn. W Illinois is the only bean field planted earlier than in 2021.
#CropWatch22 planting comparison w/ 2019. Only 3 of 8 #corn fields were planted earlier in 22 than 19. 6 of 8 #soybeans earlier in 22 than 19 (unsure if ND will make it 7 of 8). CW had 8 corn/8 soy fields in 2019; SD, W IA & W IL were added in 2021.
It's finally a beautiful evening to plant #corn in western Illinois. This is the last of four Illinois #CropWatch22 fields to be planted, and the 8th of 22 total.
It was a decent night to plant #corn in Minnesota Saturday night, though rain was forecast Sunday, so the #CropWatch22 corn was finished 4:30 am Sunday morning. The South Dakota corn also went late into the night Sat-Sun, finishing at 2 am. Needing to beat some weather.
Not the common early sight for #CropWatch22 this year, but the SE Illinois fields, both planted April 23, have emerged. This was the earlier stuff the producer planted this season - his planting is still in progress.
#China's COVID lockdowns have worsened global supply chain woes. One-fifth of the world's container ship fleet is estimated to be stuck in port congestion (not just in China), and the number of ships awaiting berth at Shanghai are up 34% from last month.
Here's a look at Shanghai. Zooming in on that one clump of vessels shows they are mostly stationary (at anchor) waiting for their turn. Shipping something from a warehouse in #China to one in the USA now takes 74 days longer than usual.
In March, the average global delay of a ship's arrival was 7.26 days. Anything over 4.5 days is very rare. These stats and more are from this Reuters article from this week:
reuters.com/business/snarl…
reuters.com/business/snarl…
Dollar Wrecking Ball - Brazil exports 55% of global #soybeans (mainly to China). Issue: US export 35% which seems to set international prices. That turns soybeans farming in Brazil into poor business at current potash prices ($1250/Mt) b/c of BRL-FX rate.
@WillisThomas
@WillisThomas
Same for corn. BRL exports 21% of total, ARG 20%, US 32% while setting prices. LatAm farmers need fertiliser subsidies or use less which would reduce yields & worsen ongoing food crisis. What do I miss? Stocks? Labour cannot move dial. Below BRL, worse for ARS.
@Fernand89000071
@Fernand89000071
U.S. quarterly stocks won't be the main event Thursday, but supplies are tighter than usual so they can't be forgotten. Trade estimates would be:
#Corn: +2.4% YOY, -5.7% on 5yr avg
#Soybeans: +22% YOY, -8.5% on 5yr avg
#Wheat: -20% YOY, -30% on 5yr avg, 13yr low for date
#Corn: +2.4% YOY, -5.7% on 5yr avg
#Soybeans: +22% YOY, -8.5% on 5yr avg
#Wheat: -20% YOY, -30% on 5yr avg, 13yr low for date
Don't be fooled by +22% YOY for #soybeans when it comes to Sept. 1 possibilities. 2nd half use in 20/21 was a 6yr low and 18% below the 5yr avg. Exports were extremely light for the period after the big effort in H1, and the remaining 21/22 book is much bigger than usual.
When I say quarterly stocks aren't the main event, what I mean is that U.S. corn and soy acreage in particular will be the two numbers the market wants to see first on Thursday. But never dismiss stocks.... they can stir up chaos anytime, anywhere.
🚨 #Wheat #Corn #Soybeans US Plantings Summary 👇
$WEAT $SOYB $CORN #Commodities #trendwhizo #EconTwitter #inflation #agriculture #Ags #grains #trading #Ukraine #Tuesday #Russia $ADM
$WEAT $SOYB $CORN #Commodities #trendwhizo #EconTwitter #inflation #agriculture #Ags #grains #trading #Ukraine #Tuesday #Russia $ADM
🚨 US Corn Supply & Demand Estimates (Dec21) 👇
$CORN #Commodities #trendwhizo #EconTwitter #inflation #agriculture #Ags #grains #trading #Ukraine #Tuesday #Russia $ADM
$CORN #Commodities #trendwhizo #EconTwitter #inflation #agriculture #Ags #grains #trading #Ukraine #Tuesday #Russia $ADM
🚨 US Soybean Supply & Demand Estimates (Dec21) 👇
$SOYB #Commodities #trendwhizo #EconTwitter #inflation #agriculture #Ags #grains #trading #Ukraine #Tuesday #Russia $ADM
$SOYB #Commodities #trendwhizo #EconTwitter #inflation #agriculture #Ags #grains #trading #Ukraine #Tuesday #Russia $ADM
🇨🇳Key takeaways of 2022 #China Government Work Report:
🔸2022 GDP growth target at about 5.5%
🔸2022 CPI growth target at about 3%
🔸Budget deficit at 2.8% of GDP vs 3.2% 2021
🔸Add 11 million urban jobs in 2022 vs 11 mln 2021.
🔸Plans 3.65 tln yuan special gov bond sales
1/n
🔸2022 GDP growth target at about 5.5%
🔸2022 CPI growth target at about 3%
🔸Budget deficit at 2.8% of GDP vs 3.2% 2021
🔸Add 11 million urban jobs in 2022 vs 11 mln 2021.
🔸Plans 3.65 tln yuan special gov bond sales
1/n
🔸2022 surveyed jobless rate at within 5.5%
🔸Ensure grain and energy securities
🔸Strengthen prudent monetary policy #PBOC
🔸Tax cut and rebate at 2.5 tln yuan
🔸To use reserves policy tools in time
🔸To stabilize land and home price
🔸Yuan to be kept basically stable $CNY
2/n
🔸Ensure grain and energy securities
🔸Strengthen prudent monetary policy #PBOC
🔸Tax cut and rebate at 2.5 tln yuan
🔸To use reserves policy tools in time
🔸To stabilize land and home price
🔸Yuan to be kept basically stable $CNY
2/n
🔸Maintains current wording on monetary and fiscal policies
🔸To set up a financial stability guarantee fund
🔸More than 2 trillion yuan of fiscal spending in 2022 vs 2021
🔸To ensure supply chain safe and stable
🔸Risks and challenges for development rise significantly
3/n 🇨🇳
🔸To set up a financial stability guarantee fund
🔸More than 2 trillion yuan of fiscal spending in 2022 vs 2021
🔸To ensure supply chain safe and stable
🔸Risks and challenges for development rise significantly
3/n 🇨🇳
At the top of the hour--
farmdoc webinar:
* "#Illinois #Farm Economic Summit 2021- - - 2021/22 Market Outlook for #Corn and #Soybeans."
* Presenters: @ScottIrwinUI and @JosephJanzen.
* Register here: bit.ly/3lkVCMt
farmdoc webinar:
* "#Illinois #Farm Economic Summit 2021- - - 2021/22 Market Outlook for #Corn and #Soybeans."
* Presenters: @ScottIrwinUI and @JosephJanzen.
* Register here: bit.ly/3lkVCMt
Daily March 2022 #Corn Futures Prices, June 1, 2020 - November 19, 2021
Daily March 2022 #Soybean Futures Prices, June 1, 2020 - November 19, 2021
1/ "#Brazil Starts Planting Grain Crop with Forecast of a New Record," by Joana Colussi bit.ly/3kE0H2N
#Farmers in Brazil began planting in September for what is expected to be a recording-breaking 2021-2022 harvest.
#Farmers in Brazil began planting in September for what is expected to be a recording-breaking 2021-2022 harvest.
2/ The first projection from CONAB (National Supply Company in Brazil) projects farmers will produce 289.6 million tons of soybeans, corn, cotton, rice, and beans – accounting for nearly 95% of the total grain produced in #Brazil. bit.ly/3kE0H2N
3/ About 99 million acres are expected to be devoted to #soybeans, and about 51 million acres to #corn, both records. bit.ly/3kE0H2N
#XRPHolders 🆚 @SEC_News Thread:
@HesterPeirce was interviewed by @ThinkingCrypto1 and said that she was trying to get people at the @SEC_News to stop thinking about the token as a security but instead on how the token was being packaged and sold.
@HesterPeirce was interviewed by @ThinkingCrypto1 and said that she was trying to get people at the @SEC_News to stop thinking about the token as a security but instead on how the token was being packaged and sold.
I tweeted out, in disbelief, saying “that’s only been the law for 75 years.”
The Supreme Court in #Howey didn’t conclude that the oranges 🍊 were Securities, but it was the “scheme” and the totality of circumstances surrounding the transactions between the parties that was held
The Supreme Court in #Howey didn’t conclude that the oranges 🍊 were Securities, but it was the “scheme” and the totality of circumstances surrounding the transactions between the parties that was held
March 1 #corn stocks come in slightly below expectations while those for #soybeans just a bit above. #Wheat stocks came in higher than the trade guess.
Versus what was reported in January, December 1 stocks came in:
#Corn 28 million bushels lighter
#Soybeans 13 mln bu heavier
#Wheat 29 mln bu heavier
No change to Sept. 1 stocks! 🥳
#Corn 28 million bushels lighter
#Soybeans 13 mln bu heavier
#Wheat 29 mln bu heavier
No change to Sept. 1 stocks! 🥳
Just a quick table to show how these Dec. 1 revisions compare with prior years. Lighter on corn than last year but heavier than usual on both soy and wheat.
Spot on!
All the fundamentals used to be bearish up to early September,with an august weather being a lottery ticket as usual, due to its critical stage for crop development. However, even knowing that drought is not enough to fail USA crop beans,I kept my bullish sentiment +
All the fundamentals used to be bearish up to early September,with an august weather being a lottery ticket as usual, due to its critical stage for crop development. However, even knowing that drought is not enough to fail USA crop beans,I kept my bullish sentiment +
1. As we are amidst a new trend for mkt due to Covid-19 impact, the huge monetary infusion as a response for its Outspread, sooner or later would turn on reflationary expectations all over the world. As commodities traditionally tends to reflect a value reserve protection +
Managed money’s would take its aim to agricultural ones, due to metallic ones being heavily overbought. The ongoing asset allocation rebalance, proves to be the major driver for this upward trend for ag futures,ignoring all the bearishness mood in the fundamentals
As #tech sold off in the last 2 weeks, there were still places that were resilient during this time period. Whether tech gets through the consolidation phase or breaks lower, time will tell.
Meanwhile few ideas on longs and shorts going forward. 1/
Meanwhile few ideas on longs and shorts going forward. 1/
On the long side, equity exposure in #transports, #materials and int'l mkts like #Germany and #Korea worked well. Exposure in these areas continues to stay bullish.
Vols are showing upticks as well, so should stay careful.
$IYT $XLB $EWG $EWY
2a/
Vols are showing upticks as well, so should stay careful.
$IYT $XLB $EWG $EWY
2a/
At the top of the hour- farmdoc webinar, May 26th.
* Updated Perspectives on the #Pandemic and Policy Responses
* Register Here: bit.ly/2TwO4Z0
* Updated Perspectives on the #Pandemic and Policy Responses
* Register Here: bit.ly/2TwO4Z0
Jonathan Coppess
Policy Responses: Payments & More Payments.
An unprecedented amount of #soybeans are headed from South America to Asia right now. #Brazil shipped an unheard-of 16.3 million tonnes of soybeans in April, including 11.8 million to #China.
Such a big difference in traffic from seven weeks ago.
Such a big difference in traffic from seven weeks ago.
Another cool view, looking at all vessels carrying ag goods, January 30 vs. May 11. Most of the traffic, esp. on May 11, is #soybeans heading from #Brazil to #China.
Not much #corn shipped lately, but Brazil's #pork exports have easily hit records every month so far in 2020.
Not much #corn shipped lately, but Brazil's #pork exports have easily hit records every month so far in 2020.
Another anecdote about these graphics.... there were SO MANY vessels in view that I had a really hard time getting them to all display at once (and not just say, "200 vessels in this area"), especially with #soybeans. Had to expertly maneuver the view. Has never happened before!
Inspections (proxy to exports) of U.S. #soybeans need to avg around 740,000 t/wk to hit USDA's 19/20 exports of 1.775 bbu. Shipments haven't been that strong since Feb.
That's = to 2018's pace and < 2019's pace, but the problem is low sales. And prob only #China can fix that.
That's = to 2018's pace and < 2019's pace, but the problem is low sales. And prob only #China can fix that.
At the top of the hour- farmdoc webinar, April 28.
* @farmdocDaily Live | #COVID19 and Ag.
* @nickdpaulson and @JoeGlauber1 on #Agricultural #Trade.
* @farmdocDaily Live | #COVID19 and Ag.
* @nickdpaulson and @JoeGlauber1 on #Agricultural #Trade.
Nick Paulson
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Phase One #Trade Deal: Chinese Commitments
1/ To purchase at least an additional $200 billion in U.S. exports over the next 2 years (base: 2017).
2/ To do more to crack down on the theft of American technology and corporate secrets by its companies and state entities.
1/ To purchase at least an additional $200 billion in U.S. exports over the next 2 years (base: 2017).
2/ To do more to crack down on the theft of American technology and corporate secrets by its companies and state entities.
3/ To avoid currency manipulation.
4/ To bring forward the planned opening of its capital market.
5/ To set up a system to resolve conflicts over drug patents.
6/ To endorse an enforcement system.
4/ To bring forward the planned opening of its capital market.
5/ To set up a system to resolve conflicts over drug patents.
6/ To endorse an enforcement system.
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Phase One #Trade Deal: Full Texts En/Cn
➡ #China’s Ministry of Finance published both English and Chinese versions of the text - Statement
*Link (Chinese): bit.ly/3aivKcX
➡ #China’s Ministry of Finance published both English and Chinese versions of the text - Statement
*Link (Chinese): bit.ly/3aivKcX
This again.
#China agreeing to make $50 billion in U.S. agricultural purchases in 2020.
The RECORD value for annual U.S. ag product exports to China was in 2012 at just under $26 billion. Compare commodity prices then and now. For reference, 2017 was $19.5 billion.
#China agreeing to make $50 billion in U.S. agricultural purchases in 2020.
The RECORD value for annual U.S. ag product exports to China was in 2012 at just under $26 billion. Compare commodity prices then and now. For reference, 2017 was $19.5 billion.
And if you consider Ag & Related Products (includes fish & forestry products) - max was $29 billion in 2013. So this is the absolute max previous ceiling considering all exports that could be considered ag.
I'm not seeing how $50B is possible in 2020.
I'm not seeing how $50B is possible in 2020.
@niubi 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 #China Hints U.S. Blacklist Imminent in Threat to #Trade Talks - Bloomberg
*Link: bloom.bg/2LhrCPP
*Link: bloom.bg/2LhrCPP
@niubi 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Here’s What Happens to Markets If U.S. Tariffs on #China Kick in Dec. 15 - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@niubi 🇨🇳 🇨🇦 🇺🇸 #Huawei plans to shift research center to #Canada from U.S.: Globe and Mail - Reuters
uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa…
uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa…
