Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #SouthChinaSea
Most recents (24)
3 June: 🇨🇳#China has a fleet of at least 15 🐟fishing ships working both sides of 🇧🇳#Brunei’s & 🇲🇾#Malaysia’s exclusive economic zones, while all 3 countries’ defense officials are gathered at the @IISS_org #ShangriLa talks in #Singapore. [🧵1/3]
#OSINT #SouthChinaSea
#OSINT #SouthChinaSea
2/In addition, two probable 🇨🇳#China maritime militia ships—Qiong Lin Yu 11016 & 11587—are at the SE edge of the fishing fleet, providing security on 🇲🇾#Malaysia’s side of the boundary, together with a 75m cargo ship, Qiong Lin 11011 (possible 🐟fish carrier?). [🧵2/3]
3/Per @AsiaMTI & @C4ADS’ 2021 report “Pulling Back the Curtain on 🇨🇳#China’s Maritime Militia”, Qiong Lin Yu 11587 is identified with “high confidence” as militia. QLY 11016’s activity here seems to implicate it as well. [🧵3/3]
@GregPoling @mabishan
csis.org/analysis/pulli…
@GregPoling @mabishan
csis.org/analysis/pulli…
A friend sent me a video that is apparently making the rounds. It's titled "#Modi the Boss," and features various world leaders praising Modi's popularity and greeting him.
Modi's #Bhakts are clearly in orgasmic bliss with this, and opponents say it's pure propaganda.
(1/)
Modi's #Bhakts are clearly in orgasmic bliss with this, and opponents say it's pure propaganda.
(1/)
But there's more to this than meets the eye.
1. It's a fact that Modi's popularity fills world leaders with awe. They would give an arm and a leg to be as popular in their countries as Modi is in India. He can screw up worse than anyone can imagine and still be popular.
(2/)
1. It's a fact that Modi's popularity fills world leaders with awe. They would give an arm and a leg to be as popular in their countries as Modi is in India. He can screw up worse than anyone can imagine and still be popular.
(2/)
2. In contrast, leaders of most world democracies have to worry about the #economy, #jobs, #Unemployment, #prices, #inflation, #recession, etc. If anything goes wrong with these, they might lose the next #election.
(3/)
(3/)
G7 opposes #China's 'militarisation' of #SouthChinaSea.
G7 emphasised the importance of the award made by the Arbitral Tribunal 2016, which issued a unanimous & durable judgement decisively dismissing the PRC’s extensive maritime claims in the SCS as lacking any legal foundation.
G7 emphasised the importance of the award made by the Arbitral Tribunal 2016, which issued a unanimous & durable judgement decisively dismissing the PRC’s extensive maritime claims in the SCS as lacking any legal foundation.
1/ANATOMY OF A SWARM: How #China sent its ships to swarm & intimidate the #Phlippines’ largest outpost in the West Philippine Sea, then scattered after its tactics were made public, 3-11 March 2023.
By 5 March the swarm of Pag-Asa Island was well underway. (1/9)
#SouthChinaSea
By 5 March the swarm of Pag-Asa Island was well underway. (1/9)
#SouthChinaSea
2/However, by 10 March—perhaps due to the #Philippines’ new transparency initiative—#China had apparently recalculated & decided that swarming was no longer in its interest. Only 10 ships remained in the Pag-Asa Cays. Where did the rest go?
(Hint: not very far) (2/9)
(Hint: not very far) (2/9)
3/Maritime open-source intelligence (#OSINT) relies on a suite of tools. The automated information system (AIS) broadcast by most ships is the simplest, but it has limitations. We used AIS to track the arrival of 7 new PRC militia ships to the Pag-Asa Cays on 3 March. (3/9)
🇨🇳🇯🇵🇷🇺⚡️Japan is making a futile attempt to turn the Central Asian states against Russia and China.
1/4
#japan #china #russia #taiwan #ukraine #ukrainewar #usa #nato #aukus #unitedstates #pacific #southchinasea
1/4
#japan #china #russia #taiwan #ukraine #ukrainewar #usa #nato #aukus #unitedstates #pacific #southchinasea
The opinion was shared by Global Times Chinese journalist Fan Anzi, who said that Japan's recent talks with the foreign ministers of five Central Asian countries were an attempt to pit these countries against China and Russia.
2/4
2/4
Japan is trying to expand its influence and military presence in the Indo-Pacific region and Central Asia and hopes to push China and Russia out of it.
3/4
3/4
1. #China has been involved in illegal fishing in #EEZ of over 80 countries with over 10 million hrs of fishing.
This is a mega report and tweet thread on #Chinese illegal fishing in world's oceans and its impacts.
Read/download the complete report:
ij-reportika.com/the-illegal-ch…
This is a mega report and tweet thread on #Chinese illegal fishing in world's oceans and its impacts.
Read/download the complete report:
ij-reportika.com/the-illegal-ch…
2. The #Chinese fleet is often found guilty of #overfishing,
killing protected species,
falsifying licenses and docs,
#espionage,
seizing territories &
producing tons of sea #waste.
Read/download the complete report:
ij-reportika.com/the-illegal-ch…
#ChinaIllegalFishing
killing protected species,
falsifying licenses and docs,
#espionage,
seizing territories &
producing tons of sea #waste.
Read/download the complete report:
ij-reportika.com/the-illegal-ch…
#ChinaIllegalFishing
3. IUU: #China has been consistently ranked num. 1 on various parameters of illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing (IUU) rankings.
According to the IUU rankings report 2021, over 60% of its vessels are involved in IUU fishing worldwide.
#ChinaIllegalFishing
According to the IUU rankings report 2021, over 60% of its vessels are involved in IUU fishing worldwide.
#ChinaIllegalFishing
#China naval threat-"What you've seen is a buildup in every warfare area w/advanced systems, long range weapons, electronic warfare capability, innovative technology, a blue water fleet along w/other vessels" Office of US Naval Intelligence RADM Michael Studeman told @INSAlliance
#China navy "can do a whole bunch of the patrolling &the coersion around #Taiwan to maintain what they are trying to do which is effective control over what they claim in the #SouthChinaSea w/pressure tactics in the Senkakus, more activity in the Philippine Sea" per RADM Studeman
"Please don't underestimate #China" per RADM Studeman
"We don't just look at the maritime navy elements of what China is up. We have to be concerned about other things like the illegal & unreported & unregulated fishing activities"
"We don't just look at the maritime navy elements of what China is up. We have to be concerned about other things like the illegal & unreported & unregulated fishing activities"
SCOOP: Chinese maritime militias have carried out construction activities at four features in the Spratly Islands in the first known instances of a SCS claimant doing so on territory it doesn’t already occupy, say western officials. Latest via @bpolitics
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
New land formations have appeared above water over the past year at Eldad Reef, the sources said. Other images showed physical changes at both Whitsun Reef and Sandy Cay, where previously submerged features now sit permanently above the high-tide line. #SouthChinaSea
Philippines reax: any reclamation activities by China on unoccupied features would contravene agreements between Beijing and SE Asian nations on conduct in disputed waters, as well as a 2016 ruling by an int'l tribunal that said China’s claims had no legal basis.
Honored to be cited by @iandenisjohnson @NewYorker:
newyorker.com/news/persons-o…
"Andrew Erickson, a professor @NavalWarCollege & a visiting professor at @Harvard, said he’s seen no evidence that #China..."
For further background, see: sites.harvard.edu/coexistence/
thewirechina.com/2022/12/04/fix…
newyorker.com/news/persons-o…
"Andrew Erickson, a professor @NavalWarCollege & a visiting professor at @Harvard, said he’s seen no evidence that #China..."
For further background, see: sites.harvard.edu/coexistence/
thewirechina.com/2022/12/04/fix…
...wants to reciprocate, citing #China’s refusal to discuss meaningful arms control. “I don’t see a basis for deep coöperation” with #Xi’s China, Erickson said. “I’m sad to say that.”
newyorker.com/news/persons-o…
KEY: In what areas is the #PRC under Xi willing to accommodate the US?
newyorker.com/news/persons-o…
KEY: In what areas is the #PRC under Xi willing to accommodate the US?
1/ US-China Economic and Security Review Commission @USCC_GOV
🔖2022 Annual Report to Congress
An important reference for all China watchers.
Will some take time to read & digest this.
🔖2022 Annual Report to Congress
An important reference for all China watchers.
Will some take time to read & digest this.
2/ "In foreign policy, 🇨🇳’s leaders chose to preserve close ties with 🇷🇺even after the country’s unprovoked invasion of 🇺🇦, increased the brazenness of 🇨🇳’s confrontations in the #SouthChinaSea and around 🇹🇼, and made more aggressive pushes for overseas basing options"
3/ "China’s aggressive activities in the #SouthChinaSea led to dangerous encounters between Chinese and other countries’ ships and aircraft in the region."
1/ ASEAN-China Summit:
Joint Statement on The 20th Anniversary of The Declaration on The Conduct of Parties in The #SouthChinaSea
@raylockman @CollinSLKoh @GregPoling @graham_euan @Sharon__Seah @AsiaMTI @Scs_Connect @ChongJaIan @alessionaval @becstrating
Joint Statement on The 20th Anniversary of The Declaration on The Conduct of Parties in The #SouthChinaSea
@raylockman @CollinSLKoh @GregPoling @graham_euan @Sharon__Seah @AsiaMTI @Scs_Connect @ChongJaIan @alessionaval @becstrating
@raylockman @CollinSLKoh @GregPoling @graham_euan @Sharon__Seah @AsiaMTI @Scs_Connect @ChongJaIan @alessionaval @becstrating 2/ "Continue to exercise self-restraint in the conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes and affect peace and stability, and avoid actions that may further complicate the situation"
This stmt historically precedes a 🇨🇳 missile test into #SouthChinaSea
This stmt historically precedes a 🇨🇳 missile test into #SouthChinaSea
3/ Spokesperson for the ASEAN Summit, Kung Phoak, stated that unlike in previous years, the #SouthChinaSea dispute is no longer a hot topic for ASEAN leaders to discuss at the Summit.
eacnews.asia/home/details/1…
eacnews.asia/home/details/1…
Congratulations to @threatinsight researcher @aRtAGGI for presenting his research today at @CYBERWARCON, which links #Leviathan #TA423 #RedLadon campaigns against offshore energy companies in the #SouthChinaSea to kinetic maritime operations conducted by the Chinese Coast Guard!
Researchers at @proofpoint identified RTF template injection campaigns from June 2021 - March 2022 targeting hydrocarbon exploration & offshore energy sectors just before Chinese Coast Guard intervention at key sites indicating a tie between cyber espionage & manned maritime ops.
A full technical analysis of this years-long cyber espionage operation was published earlier this year alongside talented guest author @cyberoverdrive! ow.ly/wLSW50LzmpM
2/ My first favorite quote:
"Campaigning requires discipline...In service of strategic prioritization, we will focus day-to-day force employment on a more narrow set of tasks than we do currently."
➡️Look fwd to see how this is implemented, esp by the Navy in the IndoPacific.
"Campaigning requires discipline...In service of strategic prioritization, we will focus day-to-day force employment on a more narrow set of tasks than we do currently."
➡️Look fwd to see how this is implemented, esp by the Navy in the IndoPacific.
3/ "Working with Allies and partners, we will build and exercise force elements needed in crisis or conflict, such as infrastructure, logistics, command and control, dispersal and relocation, and mobilization."
➡️This means #SEALIFT
@mercoglianos @johnkonrad @zach_ota
➡️This means #SEALIFT
@mercoglianos @johnkonrad @zach_ota
#THREAD: 1) It seems to me that #China has chosen a phased approach of limited military measures to squeeze #Taiwan here & there, on & off, pressure & release tactics, coupled with long term economic retaliation.
Southern Okinawa Japanese islands are also in China's crosshairs.
Southern Okinawa Japanese islands are also in China's crosshairs.
2) Here, the Global Times talks about #PLA military drill areas becoming a threat to #Taiwan's ports & shipping lanes, forming a blockade as a step to achieve reunification by force in the future.
Also a good way to test a US response.
Also a good way to test a US response.
3) This would be a calibrated approach, designed to hurt enough, but not too much that can trigger a war or US intervention.
But...... If Taiwan fires on Chinese forces to stop the blockade, then China has the excuse to go with full force, or could take small Taiwanese islands.
But...... If Taiwan fires on Chinese forces to stop the blockade, then China has the excuse to go with full force, or could take small Taiwanese islands.
#China "taking a series of relative aggressive actions" around #SouthChinaSea which are cause for concern, @DepSecDef Kathleen Hicks tells @DefenseOne Tech Summit
Pentagon aid to #Ukraine - "We're listening to the Ukrainians, who are the ones paying the price on the battlefield" per @DepSecDef
Process includes heavy focus on how to both provide & sustain weapon systems sent to Ukrainian military, Hicks says
Process includes heavy focus on how to both provide & sustain weapon systems sent to Ukrainian military, Hicks says
Too soon to know how current conflict w/#Russia plays out BUT "There will be a country called #Ukraine. It will be a sovereign country" @DepSecDef tells @DefenseOne Tech Summit
#China is building #PLA naval facility in northern portiion of #Cambodia’s #Ream #NavalBase on the #Gulf of #Thailand. #PLAN
Back in 2019, #China signed an agreement allowing its armed forces to use a #Cambodian #NavalBase to boost its ability to project military power around the globe.
We are LIVE tweeting the panel discussion with @AHuitfeldt, @AnzeLog, @HonTonyAbbott, @SanjayVermalFS, @GERonAsia, and @MZZRS
Stay tuned for updates!
#Raisina2022
Stay tuned for updates!
#Raisina2022
Peter Grk (@MZZRS): We are embarking on the unknown with the ongoing #foodcrisis, dysfunctional #multilateral organisations & the #pandemic.
Breaking: House Intel Committee posts @ODNIgov's 2022 Annual Threat Assessment, aka the Worldwide Threat Assessment
"#Beijing, #Moscow, #Tehran, & #Pyongyang have demonstrated the capability & intent to advance their interests at the expense of the #UnitedStates & its allies"
"#Beijing, #Moscow, #Tehran, & #Pyongyang have demonstrated the capability & intent to advance their interests at the expense of the #UnitedStates & its allies"
"#China increasingly is a near-peer competitor, challenging the #UnitedStates in multiple arenas—especially economically, militarily & technologically—& is pushing to change global norms & potentially threatening its neighbors" per @ODNIgov report
"#Russia is pushing back against #Washington where it can—locally & globally—employing techniques up to & including the use of force" per @ODNIgov report, compiled w/info available up to January
Now Out in Paperback! “#China Goes to #Sea: #Maritime Transformation in Comparative Historical Perspective”
amazon.com/China-Goes-Sea…
@NavalWarCollege @ChinaMaritime is proud to publish this new version w/ @NavalInstitute @USNIBooks!
Come for the #maps, stay for the #history...
amazon.com/China-Goes-Sea…
@NavalWarCollege @ChinaMaritime is proud to publish this new version w/ @NavalInstitute @USNIBooks!
Come for the #maps, stay for the #history...
Honored to have #JonathanSpence’s endorsement:
“The maritime #history of #China has long been a neglected field..China Goes to Sea bring[s] that knowledge-gap to an end..will be an indispensable companion to those readers seeking to understand where China’s navy may be heading.”
“The maritime #history of #China has long been a neglected field..China Goes to Sea bring[s] that knowledge-gap to an end..will be an indispensable companion to those readers seeking to understand where China’s navy may be heading.”
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 12/29/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/12/29/dai…
Someone in my home has COVID. How do we isolate safely? - Clean Air Crew
cleanaircrew.org/someone-in-my-…
#COVID19, #IsolationAtHome, #TransmissionRisk, #HouseholdMembers
cleanaircrew.org/someone-in-my-…
#COVID19, #IsolationAtHome, #TransmissionRisk, #HouseholdMembers
Differences Between a Secular and a Religious Upbringing
dailysignal.com/2021/12/14/dif…
#SecularUpbringing, #ReligiousUpbringing, #ValueSystems, #differences
dailysignal.com/2021/12/14/dif…
#SecularUpbringing, #ReligiousUpbringing, #ValueSystems, #differences
NEW: @DrLeeJones and my book, Fractured China: How State Transformation is Shaping China's Rise, is now out! Here is a 🧵 to explain what it is about. 1/ cambridge.org/core/books/fra…
Fractured China intervenes in the International Relations (and foreign policy) debate over whether China's rise will be a threat to the international order. China's international behaviour is sometimes revisionist and sometimes preserving the status-quo. 2/
IR and foreign policy analysis approaches struggle to explain this inconsistency because they treat China as a unitary actor in international politics. The debate has stalled and become speculative, turning on to claims about China will do or become in the future. 3/
#FPDA Ex #BersamaGold 2021:
"#XBG21 will see the participation of 2600 personnel, 10 ships, one submarine, six maritime helicopters, three maritime patrol aircraft, 25 fighter aircraft, two support aircraft, and one command and control aircraft."
🇬🇧🇲🇾🇦🇺🇸🇬🇳🇿
"#XBG21 will see the participation of 2600 personnel, 10 ships, one submarine, six maritime helicopters, three maritime patrol aircraft, 25 fighter aircraft, two support aircraft, and one command and control aircraft."
🇬🇧🇲🇾🇦🇺🇸🇬🇳🇿
2/ #FPDA #XBG21:
"Naval assets will be involved in a contactless exercise held in the southern parts of the #SouthChinaSea in international waters, where serials such as anti-air and anti-submarine exercises, gunnery firings and manoeuvring drills will be conducted."
"Naval assets will be involved in a contactless exercise held in the southern parts of the #SouthChinaSea in international waters, where serials such as anti-air and anti-submarine exercises, gunnery firings and manoeuvring drills will be conducted."
🧵1⃣ What is GRAND STRATEGY?
This questions boils down to two other questions:
- What is STRATEGY?
- What is GRAND in "grand strategy"?
This questions boils down to two other questions:
- What is STRATEGY?
- What is GRAND in "grand strategy"?
2⃣ The common definition of strategy in most dictionaries is that it is a PLAN. E.g., strategy is defined as a “carefully developed plan or method for achieving a goal” (Merriam-Webster) or a “plan of action or policy designed to achieve a major or overall aim” (Oxford).
3⃣ Plan is indeed the most popular meaning of the word “strategy.” However, it is utterly useless, even dangerous, for strategists. Why?
Will the Mekong River Region become the newest theater of US-China Rivalry ?
The Mekong River Basin of Southeast Asia could
become the new regional theater of the geopolitical
confrontation between China 🇨🇳 and the US🇺🇸 .
#Thread
#MekongRiver
#China
#SouthChinaSea
#USA
The Mekong River Basin of Southeast Asia could
become the new regional theater of the geopolitical
confrontation between China 🇨🇳 and the US🇺🇸 .
#Thread
#MekongRiver
#China
#SouthChinaSea
#USA
Projecting the riverine states, Myanmar🇲🇲, Thailand🇹🇭,
Laos🇱🇦, Vietnam🇻🇳 and Cambodia🇰🇭 directly in the
middle of the conflict between the two superpowers.
Laos🇱🇦, Vietnam🇻🇳 and Cambodia🇰🇭 directly in the
middle of the conflict between the two superpowers.
The duel bet. Washington and Beijing could take place through their rival institutions: the Western-backed Mekong River Commission(MRC) & the
Chinese-formed Mekong-Lancang Cooperation(LMC) framework which was initiated in 2015 in response to the former which was est. in the 1950
Chinese-formed Mekong-Lancang Cooperation(LMC) framework which was initiated in 2015 in response to the former which was est. in the 1950
