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RRH Elections

@RRHElections

A week late, but let's do a thread on the Alabama VRA case and what it might mean for redistricting in 2024. The Supreme Court is expected to reinterpret the VRA--one way or another--next spring, and the Court's new guidelines will change the way states approach redistricting. 1/

Earlier this year, a lower court ordered Alabama to redraw its map (left), which has had one Black-majority district since 1992. Plaintiffs convinced the court that the VRA required Alabama to draw two Black-majority seats (right, for one example). 2/

SCOTUS has long had a 3-factor test (the "Gingles factors") to determine when a VRA district is required:

1. A compact district can be drawn that is at least 50%+1 of a min. group
2. The minority is politically cohesive
3. Whites bloc vote to defeat minorities' candidates

3/

Read 21 tweets

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

Thread: yes, the new House map is on track to be slightly more *equitable* (less pro-GOP) than the current one. But keep in mind, it's also on track to feature:

- Even fewer competitive seats
- Even wider disparities in maps' treatment of non-white voters from state to state

I think @mcpli's broader point is fair, but the way I'd frame it is that vastly different standards are being applied to non-white communities in TX vs. IL, AL vs. VA, etc. depending on partisan motive, absent a clearer set of VRA rules from SCOTUS/Congress.

If federal courts unpacked #VA03 to create an additional Black opportunity district in 2016, a consistent interpretation of the VRA would also demand that #AL07, #LA02 and likely #SC06 be unpacked to create second Black majority seats too.

We'll see what courts say this time.

Read 7 tweets

Caitlin Byrd

@MaryCaitlinByrd

The SC Senate has unveiled its draft plan for congressional district lines. Note big changes to #SC01, currently represented by @RepNancyMace, and #SC06, currently represented by @WhipClyburn >Old map is on the left and new proposal is on the right, with the pink numbers. #scpol

The big obvious change in the proposal is the way that #SC01 would now hook through more parts of Berkeley County, parts of which were previously drawn into #SC06. >>> #spcol

Let's zoom in even closer: Under SC's current congressional map, places like Jamestown, Shulerville, Huger, Cordesville and Cainhoy (a booming area off Clements Ferry Road in CHS/Mount Pleasant) were #SC06. Under new maps? It would be in #SC01 >>> #scpol #scnews #chsnews

Read 6 tweets

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

THREAD: I spent a lot of the summer interviewing Congressional Black Caucus members from the South. Almost without exception, they now favor legal action to *unpack* their own hyper-safe seats to create more minority opportunities. theatlantic.com/politics/archi…

"We've only got one of six seats in a state that's a third Black," #LA02 Rep. Troy Carter (D) told me. "If Baton Rouge and Opelousas can be tied in for a second majority-minority district, I'm all in." theatlantic.com/politics/archi…

"If we're a quarter of the population, we should be a quarter of the seats," #AL07 Rep. Terri Sewell told me. "I'm for broadening the representation of African-Americans across Alabama, instead of concentrating it in my district." theatlantic.com/politics/archi…

Read 8 tweets

Meg Kinnard

@MegKinnardAP

BREAKING: #APRaceCall - Veteran Rep @WhipClyburn defeats Republican challenger @MccollumFor in #SouthCarolina's 6th District, securing his 15th term in Congress #SC06 #Election2020

BREAKING: #APRaceCall - Republican @RepJeffDuncan defeats Democratic challenger @ClevelandHosea in #SouthCarolina's 3rd District, securing his 6th term in Congress #SC03 #Election2020

BREAKING: #APRaceCall - Republican @RepRalphNorman defeats Democratic challenger @MoeBrownSC in #SouthCarolina's 5th District, securing his 2nd full term in Congress #SC05 #Election2020

Read 4 tweets

Stephen Wolf

@PoliticsWolf

1/33 Sorry for long thread, but I want to post this before E-Day:

I've worked for years on an unfinished project to draw nonpartisan congressional maps for every state to analyze gerrymandering. This map shows the 2016 pres margin by hypothetical district. State maps to follow.

2/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Alabama congressional map with two Voting Rights Act districts (#AL02 & #AL07). Second map shows two Black-majority districts to illustrate a VRA liability.

3/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Arizona congressional map.

Read 33 tweets

Stephen Beban

@StephenBeban

Improved Dave's #Redistricting App brings me joy! (Gratefully anticipating post-2020). @davesredist @mikemathieu #ElectionTwitter 1/27

@PoliticsWolf @ecaliberseven @DKElections @JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @Center4Politics @Redistrict @fairvote @jbview
gardow.com/davebradlee/re…

Tested it out with this new KY map. Based on 2016-2019 results, intrigued how it would do in 2020. The #KY04 (R+7 PVI) seems more competitive than the real #KY06 (R+9), with the movement in the Cincinnati and Lexington suburbs. 2/27 davesredistricting.org/join/d389d8e2-…

However, I also did a bunch of Democratic gerrymanders after 2012 redistricting to compare with the real Republican ones. Thought I’d review how my designs performed in light of 2016. The contrast shows just how much of a difference partisan control makes (spoiler: a lot). 3/27

Read 27 tweets

Puesto Loco™

@PuestoLoco

.#ComplicitCongress THREAD:
ALL Dem House Reps who enable Trump by NOT supporting #ImpeachmentInquiry.
Alphabetical by state. Plz RT & call them.

#ComplicitCongress
A minority of Dem House Reps DON’T support #Impeachment Inquiry:
#AL07 @RepTerriSewell
#AZ01 @TomOhalleran
#CO07 @RepPerlmutter
#CT01 @RepJohnLarson
#CT02 @RepJoeCourtney
#CT03 @RosaDeLauro
#CT05 @RepJahanaHayes
#FL05 @RepAlLawsonJr
#FL07 @RepStephMurphy

#ComplicitCongress
A minority of Dem House Reps DON’T support #Impeachment Inquiry:
#FL13 @RepCharlieCrist
#FL14 @USRepKCastor
#FL20 @RepHastingsFL
#FL21 @RepLoisFrankel
#FL23 @DWSTweets
#FL24 @RepWilson
#FL27 @RepShalala

Read 15 tweets

Puesto Loco™

@PuestoLoco

Call & tell these AL & AZ Reps to STOP enabling Trump & being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry;
#AL07 @RepTerriSewell 202-225-2665
Arizona
#AZ01 @TomOhalleran 202-225-3361

Call & tell these California Reps to STOP enabling Trump by being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry:

#CA05 @RepThompson 202-225-3311
#CA07 @RepBera 202-225-5716
#CA09 @RepMcNerney 202-225-1947
#CA10 @RepJoshHarder 202-225-4540
#CA12 @SpeakerPelosi 202-225-4965

Call & tell these California Reps to STOP enabling Trump & being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry:

#CA16 @RepJimCosta 202-225-3341
#CA18 @RepAnnaEshoo 202-225-8104
#CA20 @RepJimmyPanetta 202-225-2861
#CA21 @RepTJCox 202-225-4695

Read 29 tweets

Puesto Loco™

@PuestoLoco

CALIFORNIA;
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!

#CA05 @RepThompson 202-225-3311
#CA07 @RepBera 202-225-5716
#CA09 @RepMcNerney 202-225-1947
#CA10 @RepJoshHarder 202-225-4540

CALIFORNIA;
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!

#CA12 @SpeakerPelosi 202-225-4965
#CA16 @RepJimCosta 202-225-3341
#CA17 @RepRoKhanna 202-225-2631
#CA18 @RepAnnaEshoo 202-225-8104

CALIFORNIA;
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them:Do your job!

#CA19 @RepZoeLofgren 202-225-3072
#CA20 @RepJimmyPanetta 202-225-2861
#CA21 @RepTJCox 202-225-4695
#CA24 @RepCarbajal 202-225-3601

Read 46 tweets

postcardsforAmerica

@postcards4USA

Hey #SouthCarolina
Onward to #Midterms2018!
Here's a THREAD of All Democratic Candidates for Congress, Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State
& Voting Info with Links
Check (& keep checking) Registration: info.scvotes.sc.gov/eng/voterinqui…
#SC01 #SC02 #SC03 #SC04 #SC05 #SC06 #SC07

VOTER REGISTRATION #SouthCarolina #SC
Register by October 22
Online: info.scvotes.sc.gov/eng/ovr/start.…
Or with this form scvotes.org/files/VR_Blank…
Send to County Offices: scvotes.org/how-register-a…
Check (& keep checking) Registration: info.scvotes.sc.gov/eng/voterinqui…
Or here vote.org/am-i-registere…

Democratic Candidate #SC01
Joe Cunningham, Attorney & Ocean Engineer
joecunninghamforcongress.com
@JoeCunninghamSC

vs Katie Arrington
(GOP Incumbent Mark Sanford lost in the Primary)

VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018
Register by October 7

Read 15 tweets

postcardsforAmerica

@postcards4USA

Well Primaried, #SouthCarolina!
#PrimaryElection winners
Here is a THREAD with All Democratic Candidates
For Congress, Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State
& Voting Info with Links
NOTE: **There are PRIMARY RUNOFFS on JUNE 26 for Districts #SC02 #SC04 #SC07**

Democratic Candidates South Carolina District 2 #SC02
***PRIMARY RUNOFF JUNE 26***
Annabelle Robertson
annabelle2018.com
@Annabelle4SC
vs
Sean Carrigan
carriganforcongress.com

Read 16 tweets

postcardsforAmerica

@postcards4USA

Hey #SouthCarolina your #Primaries are June 12, 2018.
You need to REGISTER by MAY 11 In person
By May 13th Online here info.scvotes.sc.gov/eng/ovr/start.…
(With Drivers License or DMV ID)
Here is a THREAD with Voting Info and Links to All Democratic Candidates for Congress, Gov, AG, SoS.

Voter Registration in South Carolina by May 13
Online here: info.scvotes.sc.gov/eng/ovr/start.…
By Email or Fax by May 13 Or by May 11 In-Person
With this form: scvotes.org/files/VR_Blank…
Sent to County Offices here: scvotes.org/how-register-a…
Check Registration here: info.scvotes.sc.gov/eng/voterinqui…

South Carolina Absentee Voting Info: scvotes.org/absentee-voting
Request Absentee Ballot by Jun 8
Absentee Ballot Return Deadline Jun 12
Request Application here: info.scvotes.sc.gov/eng/voterinqui…
Or County Voter Registration: scvotes.org/how-register-a…
Military Overseas? fvap.gov/south-carolina

Read 14 tweets

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