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Hello Monday!
Slow start to the week with 🇯🇵 machine tool orders -3.5% as the debt ceiling drama continues in the background
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Slow start to the week with 🇯🇵 machine tool orders -3.5% as the debt ceiling drama continues in the background
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia ↗️ with 🗾 breaking to multi-year highs
$NIKK 31086 +0.9%
$SSEC 3296 +0.4%
$TWII 16181 +0.05%
$HSI 19722 +1.4%
$KOSPI 2557 +0.75%
$IDX 6741 +0.6%
Australia ↘️
$ASX 7263 -0.2%
India ↗️
$BSE 61895 +0.25%
$NIKK 31086 +0.9%
$SSEC 3296 +0.4%
$TWII 16181 +0.05%
$HSI 19722 +1.4%
$KOSPI 2557 +0.75%
$IDX 6741 +0.6%
Australia ↘️
$ASX 7263 -0.2%
India ↗️
$BSE 61895 +0.25%
Europe ↔️ with $DAX failing at 16300
$DAX 16241 -0.2%
$FTSE 7777 +0.25%
$CAC 7484 -0.1%
$AEX 768 +0.1%
$IBEX 9290 +0.4%
$MIB 27369 -0.55%
$SMI 11558 -0.1%
$MOEX 2645 +0.75%
$VSTOXX 16.22 🔺
$DAX range = 15880 - 16324 ♉️🔝
$DAX 16241 -0.2%
$FTSE 7777 +0.25%
$CAC 7484 -0.1%
$AEX 768 +0.1%
$IBEX 9290 +0.4%
$MIB 27369 -0.55%
$SMI 11558 -0.1%
$MOEX 2645 +0.75%
$VSTOXX 16.22 🔺
$DAX range = 15880 - 16324 ♉️🔝
Hello Thursday!
The lure 🎣 of the #opex flows 🌊 are generating a massive #FOMO 🚨
All aboard the equity 🚊!
Meanwhile, the $USD quietly ticks ↗️ into neutral territory…
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
The lure 🎣 of the #opex flows 🌊 are generating a massive #FOMO 🚨
All aboard the equity 🚊!
Meanwhile, the $USD quietly ticks ↗️ into neutral territory…
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
$NIKK ♉️ led Asian equities ↗️
$NIKK 30574 +1.6%
$SSEC 3297 +0.4%
$TWII 16102 +1.1%
$HSI 19705 +0.75%
$KOSPI 2515 +0.85%
$IDX 6663 -0.2%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7237 +0.5%
India ↗️
$BSE 61653 +0.15%
$NIKK 30574 +1.6%
$SSEC 3297 +0.4%
$TWII 16102 +1.1%
$HSI 19705 +0.75%
$KOSPI 2515 +0.85%
$IDX 6663 -0.2%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7237 +0.5%
India ↗️
$BSE 61653 +0.15%
Europe ↗️♉️
$DAX 16182 +1.45%
$FTSE 7772 +0.65%
$CAC 7466 +0.9%
$AEX 763 +0.55%
$IBEX 9262 +0.55%
$MIB 2754 +1.15%
$SMI 11438 -0.7% ⬅️
$MOEX 2654 +0.75%
$VSTOXX 16.18 🔻 ⬅️ no worries!
$DAX range = 15732 - 16103 over the 🔝 ⬅️
$DAX 16182 +1.45%
$FTSE 7772 +0.65%
$CAC 7466 +0.9%
$AEX 763 +0.55%
$IBEX 9262 +0.55%
$MIB 2754 +1.15%
$SMI 11438 -0.7% ⬅️
$MOEX 2654 +0.75%
$VSTOXX 16.18 🔻 ⬅️ no worries!
$DAX range = 15732 - 16103 over the 🔝 ⬅️
Hello Wednesday! 🐫
$NIKK > 30,000 for the 1st time since Nov '21
#Bitcoin back < 27,000
#Copper eviscerated
$WTIC teetering at 70
$USD firm at 102.69
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
$NIKK > 30,000 for the 1st time since Nov '21
#Bitcoin back < 27,000
#Copper eviscerated
$WTIC teetering at 70
$USD firm at 102.69
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asian democracies ↗️
$NIKK 30094 +0.85% ⬅️♉️
$SSEC 3284 -0.2%
$TWII 15925 +1.6%
$HSI 19529 -2.25%
$KOSPI 2495 +0.6%
$IDX 6672 -0.05%
Australia ↘️
$ASX 7199 -0.5%
India ↘️
$BSE 61393 -0.85%
$NIKK 30094 +0.85% ⬅️♉️
$SSEC 3284 -0.2%
$TWII 15925 +1.6%
$HSI 19529 -2.25%
$KOSPI 2495 +0.6%
$IDX 6672 -0.05%
Australia ↘️
$ASX 7199 -0.5%
India ↘️
$BSE 61393 -0.85%
Europe treading water ↔️
$DAX 15953 +0.35%
$FTSE 7749 -0.05%
$CAC 7397 -0.1%
$AEX 756 -0.05%
$IBEX 9183 -0.05%
$MIB 27130 -0.25%
$SMI 11488 -0.3%
$MOEX 2626 -0.3%
$VSTOXX 16.90
$DAX 15953 +0.35%
$FTSE 7749 -0.05%
$CAC 7397 -0.1%
$AEX 756 -0.05%
$IBEX 9183 -0.05%
$MIB 27130 -0.25%
$SMI 11488 -0.3%
$MOEX 2626 -0.3%
$VSTOXX 16.90
US Futures, Asia Stocks Fall as Traders Trim Risk
$ES $NQ $RTY $YM $SPY $QQQ $IWM $SPX $NDX $DIA $META $AAPL $AMZN $AMD $NFLX $NVDA $GOOG $MSFT $TSLA
#Trading #Stocks #Opex #StockMarket #markets
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
$ES $NQ $RTY $YM $SPY $QQQ $IWM $SPX $NDX $DIA $META $AAPL $AMZN $AMD $NFLX $NVDA $GOOG $MSFT $TSLA
#Trading #Stocks #Opex #StockMarket #markets
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
1/ US equity futures declined with most stocks in Asia as traders trimmed risk levels before a slew of economic data this week that may help illuminate the path forward for interest rates.
Contracts for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 extended losses following a muted
Contracts for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 extended losses following a muted
2/ end to trading last week, while Euro Stoxx 50 futures pointed to a slight decline. MSCI Inc.’s Asia Pacific Index was on course for the lowest close since end March, while equity benchmarks in Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia all dropped.
Leveraged investors boosted
Leveraged investors boosted
Hello Monday!
This week is all about flowzzz 🌊 in the US with tax payments due today/Tuesday, Vixperation on Wednesday, and the end of a 5-week #opex cycle on Friday
Be on the lookout for 👱& 🧿
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
This week is all about flowzzz 🌊 in the US with tax payments due today/Tuesday, Vixperation on Wednesday, and the end of a 5-week #opex cycle on Friday
Be on the lookout for 👱& 🧿
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia closed ↔️ with 🇨🇳 & 🇭🇰 ↗️ ahead of 🇨🇳 GDP
$NIKK 28515 +0.05%
$SSEC 3386 +1.4% 🇨🇳
$TWII 15929 +0.8%
$HSI 20786 +1.7% 🇭🇰
$KOSPI 2576 +0.15%
$IDX 6777 -0.06%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7381 +0.25%
India ↘️
$BSE 59843 -0.95%
$NIKK 28515 +0.05%
$SSEC 3386 +1.4% 🇨🇳
$TWII 15929 +0.8%
$HSI 20786 +1.7% 🇭🇰
$KOSPI 2576 +0.15%
$IDX 6777 -0.06%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7381 +0.25%
India ↘️
$BSE 59843 -0.95%
Europe mostly ↗️♉️
$DAX 15828 +0.15%
$FTSE 7904 +0.4%
$CAC 8523 +0.05%
$AEX 760 -0.25%
$IBEX 9373 +0.1%
$MIB 27917 +0.15%
$SMI 11329 -0.1%
$MOEX 2585 +1.2%
$VSTOXX 17.2
$DAX range = 15360 - 15968 ♉️
$DAX 15828 +0.15%
$FTSE 7904 +0.4%
$CAC 8523 +0.05%
$AEX 760 -0.25%
$IBEX 9373 +0.1%
$MIB 27917 +0.15%
$SMI 11329 -0.1%
$MOEX 2585 +1.2%
$VSTOXX 17.2
$DAX range = 15360 - 15968 ♉️
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻💰
Macro Review 03/10/23
🧵 1/8
The #Kraken may have been unleashed on financial markets this week with volatility up across asset classes.
Let’s dig into the critical 🧮 from the week!
© Adobe Stock
Macro Review 03/10/23
🧵 1/8
The #Kraken may have been unleashed on financial markets this week with volatility up across asset classes.
Let’s dig into the critical 🧮 from the week!
© Adobe Stock
2a/8
After a week of reflation and my #CrashRiskRising call from 02/26/23, Jay Powell stepped up to the plate and told us “dot plot going higher.”
The UST2Y ripped, the curve inverted further, and the MOVE ↗️
Chart: MOVE index 140.06
After a week of reflation and my #CrashRiskRising call from 02/26/23, Jay Powell stepped up to the plate and told us “dot plot going higher.”
The UST2Y ripped, the curve inverted further, and the MOVE ↗️
Chart: MOVE index 140.06
2b/8
After two days of Powell chatting with Congress, the UST 2Y accelerated to 5.05%, a multi-year high, before crashing hard on the SVB news.
Chart: $UST2Y with -1.6 STD move in 2 days
After two days of Powell chatting with Congress, the UST 2Y accelerated to 5.05%, a multi-year high, before crashing hard on the SVB news.
Chart: $UST2Y with -1.6 STD move in 2 days
$SPX
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter (It will be out tomorrow)
Subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES $SPX #ES_F $GAMMA #GAMMA #GEX $QQQ #QQQ
$DIA $IWM #trading #options #Futures
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter (It will be out tomorrow)
Subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES $SPX #ES_F $GAMMA #GAMMA #GEX $QQQ #QQQ
$DIA $IWM #trading #options #Futures
The Bear's take:
•Recession is just around the corner
• Rates and valuations are high
• Geopolitical tensions
• Friday, stocks rise on low volume
• Earnings will be low
•China Covid shutdown hurt earnings
• Market is overbougth
• #VVIX is rising
#SPX #ES_F $SPX #options
•Recession is just around the corner
• Rates and valuations are high
• Geopolitical tensions
• Friday, stocks rise on low volume
• Earnings will be low
•China Covid shutdown hurt earnings
• Market is overbougth
• #VVIX is rising
#SPX #ES_F $SPX #options
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's take
• Inflation/Commodities/Oil/$ are ↓
• $DJI chart is very bullish. $DJT and $IWM also look good
•Up week on increasing volume
• $VIX and #DXY in strong donwtrend
•Breadth indicators are strong
•Positive divergence from CCI, RSI, ROC, Stochastics
The Bull's take
• Inflation/Commodities/Oil/$ are ↓
• $DJI chart is very bullish. $DJT and $IWM also look good
•Up week on increasing volume
• $VIX and #DXY in strong donwtrend
•Breadth indicators are strong
•Positive divergence from CCI, RSI, ROC, Stochastics
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
Macro Review 🧵
01/15/2023
1/11
Core #CPI running at +3.1% SAAR confirmed #Goldilocks for Q422 and catalyzed a 🚀 in equities, metals, and hydrocarbons
#Core CPI - 3-month SAAR
Dec - 3.1%
Nov - 4.2%
Oct - 5.7%
Chart: #CoreCPI 5.7% 🔻
Macro Review 🧵
01/15/2023
1/11
Core #CPI running at +3.1% SAAR confirmed #Goldilocks for Q422 and catalyzed a 🚀 in equities, metals, and hydrocarbons
#Core CPI - 3-month SAAR
Dec - 3.1%
Nov - 4.2%
Oct - 5.7%
Chart: #CoreCPI 5.7% 🔻
1a/11
Despite all the recession talk - including my own, the @AtlantaFed #NowCast is projecting Q4 growth of +4.1%, an acceleration.
Growth 🔺 + Inflation 🔻 = #Quad1 #Goldilocks
Chart:
Despite all the recession talk - including my own, the @AtlantaFed #NowCast is projecting Q4 growth of +4.1%, an acceleration.
Growth 🔺 + Inflation 🔻 = #Quad1 #Goldilocks
Chart:
2/11
While #Quad1 #Goldilocks may be good for risk assets, it’s decidedly poor for the $USD, which continued ↘️ and took out the 50% retracement level of 102.12
Chart: $USD -1.64% (w) -9.94% 3M = T = Trend
While #Quad1 #Goldilocks may be good for risk assets, it’s decidedly poor for the $USD, which continued ↘️ and took out the 50% retracement level of 102.12
Chart: $USD -1.64% (w) -9.94% 3M = T = Trend
Hello Friday and the week to date!
$GOLD +1.55%
$GBP +1.08%
$USD -1.59%
$TLT +2.35%
$HYG +1.47%
$TNX -3.36%
$IWM +4.65%
$DAX +4.31%
$SSEC +1.26%
$NIKK +0.56%
#Bitcoin +11.26%
$COPPER +7.42%
$WTIC +6.26%
$NATGAS -0.54%
$SILVER +0.08%
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
$GOLD +1.55%
$GBP +1.08%
$USD -1.59%
$TLT +2.35%
$HYG +1.47%
$TNX -3.36%
$IWM +4.65%
$DAX +4.31%
$SSEC +1.26%
$NIKK +0.56%
#Bitcoin +11.26%
$COPPER +7.42%
$WTIC +6.26%
$NATGAS -0.54%
$SILVER +0.08%
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia closed ↗️ ex-Japan
$NIKK 26119 -1.25%
$SSEC 3195 +1.0%
$TWII 14824 +0.65%
$HSI 21739 +1.05%
$KOSPI 2386 +0.9%
$IDX 6642 +0.2%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7328 +0.65%
India ↗️
$BSE 60276 +0.55%
$NIKK 26119 -1.25%
$SSEC 3195 +1.0%
$TWII 14824 +0.65%
$HSI 21739 +1.05%
$KOSPI 2386 +0.9%
$IDX 6642 +0.2%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7328 +0.65%
India ↗️
$BSE 60276 +0.55%
Europe ↗️♉️
$DAX 15075 +0.1%
$FTSE 7840 +0.6%
$CAC 7009 +0.5%
$AEX 748 +0.8%
$IBEX 8910 +0.95%
$MIB 25831 +0.4%
$SMI 11327 +0.35%
$MOEX 2186 unch
$VSTOXX 17.49 🔻⬅️
$DAX range = 14237 - 15240 ♉️
$DAX 15075 +0.1%
$FTSE 7840 +0.6%
$CAC 7009 +0.5%
$AEX 748 +0.8%
$IBEX 8910 +0.95%
$MIB 25831 +0.4%
$SMI 11327 +0.35%
$MOEX 2186 unch
$VSTOXX 17.49 🔻⬅️
$DAX range = 14237 - 15240 ♉️
Self assessment 🧵
1/15
New Year’s is the perfect time for some self reflection and assessment of my performance relative to my investing goal #5Real
#5Real = earning +5% AFTER inflation
So, how did I do?
1/15
New Year’s is the perfect time for some self reflection and assessment of my performance relative to my investing goal #5Real
#5Real = earning +5% AFTER inflation
So, how did I do?
2/15
I-Bonds +8.2%
Cash Accounts +3.1%
IRA Trend (long only) -2.97%
All Weather -5.76%
Trading account -6.39%
Vol HF allocation -6.54
IRA Mean Reversion -8.91%
401K -12.29%
I-Bonds +8.2%
Cash Accounts +3.1%
IRA Trend (long only) -2.97%
All Weather -5.76%
Trading account -6.39%
Vol HF allocation -6.54
IRA Mean Reversion -8.91%
401K -12.29%
3/15
No matter how you slice it, I came up well short of my goals
I lost money
I take absolutely zero solace in having outperformed the $SPX or $TLT
Yeh, it was a hard year. But I can do better.
Much better.
So, what did I learn this year to make me better at this game?
No matter how you slice it, I came up well short of my goals
I lost money
I take absolutely zero solace in having outperformed the $SPX or $TLT
Yeh, it was a hard year. But I can do better.
Much better.
So, what did I learn this year to make me better at this game?
$SPX
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter
Subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES $SPX #ES_F $GAMMA $GEX #GAMMA #GEX $QQQ #QQQ
$DIA $IWM #trading
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter
Subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES $SPX #ES_F $GAMMA $GEX #GAMMA #GEX $QQQ #QQQ
$DIA $IWM #trading
TODAY IN THE MARKETS
$VIX
Down day for the #SPX, and the #VIX closed down -6.26% and below 20DMA
Yesterday: large bearish engulfing candle
Today: Continuation
Despite the lack of sync this looks like a bullish development for $SPX
#ES_F #trading $SPY $ES #options #VIX $VVIX
$VIX
Down day for the #SPX, and the #VIX closed down -6.26% and below 20DMA
Yesterday: large bearish engulfing candle
Today: Continuation
Despite the lack of sync this looks like a bullish development for $SPX
#ES_F #trading $SPY $ES #options #VIX $VVIX
$XLF
#XLF was rejected at 20DMA
The sector remains above the 200DMA, and near support
For the October #SPX rally to continue it's necessary for #XLF to hold above $34.40
#trading #banks #options #ES_F $SPX $SPY $ES #DayTrading #Futures #inflation #ratehikes #Fed #Financial
#XLF was rejected at 20DMA
The sector remains above the 200DMA, and near support
For the October #SPX rally to continue it's necessary for #XLF to hold above $34.40
#trading #banks #options #ES_F $SPX $SPY $ES #DayTrading #Futures #inflation #ratehikes #Fed #Financial
Hello #OPEX 🌊 and the week to date
$USD +0.41%
$GBP +0.25%
$GOLD -0.34%
$TLT +2.49%
$HYG -0.63%
$TNX -1.0%
$DAX +0.29%
$SSEC -0.32%
$NIKK -1.29%
$SPX -1.4%
$NATGAS +8.33%
$DBA -1.0%
#Bitcoin -1.93%
$SILVER -3.18%
$COPPER -5.63%
$WTIC -9.5%
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
$USD +0.41%
$GBP +0.25%
$GOLD -0.34%
$TLT +2.49%
$HYG -0.63%
$TNX -1.0%
$DAX +0.29%
$SSEC -0.32%
$NIKK -1.29%
$SPX -1.4%
$NATGAS +8.33%
$DBA -1.0%
#Bitcoin -1.93%
$SILVER -3.18%
$COPPER -5.63%
$WTIC -9.5%
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia closed on a ↘️🎵
$NIKK 27900 -0.1%
$SSEC 3097 -0.6%
$TWII 14505 -0.2%
$HSI 17993 -0.3%
$KOSPI 2444 +0.05%
$IDX 7082 +0.5% ⬅️
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7152 +0.25%
India ↘️
$BSE 61504 -0.4%
$NIKK 27900 -0.1%
$SSEC 3097 -0.6%
$TWII 14505 -0.2%
$HSI 17993 -0.3%
$KOSPI 2444 +0.05%
$IDX 7082 +0.5% ⬅️
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7152 +0.25%
India ↘️
$BSE 61504 -0.4%
Europe with a persistent bid ↗️ ♉️
$DAX 14412 +1.0%
$FTSE 7393 +0.65%
$CAC 6641 +1.0%
$AEX 714 +0.75%
$IBEX 8107 +0.8%
$MIB 24634 +1.2%
$SMI 10993 +0.7%
$MOEX 21896 -0.75% ⬅️
$VSTOXX 21.35
$DAX range = 13563 - 14576 ♉️
$DAX 14412 +1.0%
$FTSE 7393 +0.65%
$CAC 6641 +1.0%
$AEX 714 +0.75%
$IBEX 8107 +0.8%
$MIB 24634 +1.2%
$SMI 10993 +0.7%
$MOEX 21896 -0.75% ⬅️
$VSTOXX 21.35
$DAX range = 13563 - 14576 ♉️
"Une défaite russe amoindrirait les efforts nécessaires à la préparation d'un retour à la haute intensité."
Dans le dernier HS @DSI_Magazine, @Leo_PeriaPeigne évoque les conséquences de la guerre en #Ukraine sur la préparation des armées 🇫🇷 à la haute intensité.
THREAD 👇
Dans le dernier HS @DSI_Magazine, @Leo_PeriaPeigne évoque les conséquences de la guerre en #Ukraine sur la préparation des armées 🇫🇷 à la haute intensité.
THREAD 👇
🇺🇦🇷🇺 "Tandis que la lutte entre #Kiev et #Moscou remet au centre de l'attention la réalité d'un tel conflit, un certain nombre de conséquences se dessinent déjà pour les forces occidentales si elles devaient préparer, mener et endurer un affrontement de #hauteintensité."
"Désorganisation des forces 🇷🇺, différences dans la conception et la qualité des véhicules et équipements, manque de coop. interarmes incarnent [les limites établies], tandis que la probabilité pour la France de subir une invasion à grande échelle de son territoire reste mince."
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
Global Macro Review
September 12, 2022
1/10
Comping against the June lows, equities, yields, and #bitcoin ripped ↗️ as the USD and vol 🌊 ↘️ even as a litany of #FedHeads reaffirmed more 👊🥣 removal
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
Global Macro Review
September 12, 2022
1/10
Comping against the June lows, equities, yields, and #bitcoin ripped ↗️ as the USD and vol 🌊 ↘️ even as a litany of #FedHeads reaffirmed more 👊🥣 removal
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/10
The $USD 🎳 paused while ECB, BOC, RBA hiked 75 BPS
$FXY -1.7% (w) -6.0% (T)
$UUP -0.65% (w), +4.9% (T)
$FXA +0.6% (w), -3.0% (T)
$FXE +0.91% (w), -4.75% (T)
$FXC +1.04% (w), -1.9% (T)
$FXF +2.14% (w), +2.6% (T)
Chart: capitulatory selling in $FXY 💴
The $USD 🎳 paused while ECB, BOC, RBA hiked 75 BPS
$FXY -1.7% (w) -6.0% (T)
$UUP -0.65% (w), +4.9% (T)
$FXA +0.6% (w), -3.0% (T)
$FXE +0.91% (w), -4.75% (T)
$FXC +1.04% (w), -1.9% (T)
$FXF +2.14% (w), +2.6% (T)
Chart: capitulatory selling in $FXY 💴
3a/10
Treasury bond ETFs were 🪓 as the $UST10Y +9.8 BPS to 3.3.15%
10/2s to -24.8 BPS
MOVE 121.54 🛗
$TLT -1.75% (w), -4.8% (T)
$TIP -1.05% (w), -5.05% (T)
$IEF -0.85% (w), -1.05% (T)
Chart: $TLT oversold and exploring a double bottom
Treasury bond ETFs were 🪓 as the $UST10Y +9.8 BPS to 3.3.15%
10/2s to -24.8 BPS
MOVE 121.54 🛗
$TLT -1.75% (w), -4.8% (T)
$TIP -1.05% (w), -5.05% (T)
$IEF -0.85% (w), -1.05% (T)
Chart: $TLT oversold and exploring a double bottom
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
1/7 🧵
Global Macro Review 08/28/2022
What a difference a week and an 8-minute JH speech make.
Trend indicators green into #OPEX, only to have JPOW reiterate, "Our responsibility to deliver price stability is unconditional.”
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
1/7 🧵
Global Macro Review 08/28/2022
What a difference a week and an 8-minute JH speech make.
Trend indicators green into #OPEX, only to have JPOW reiterate, "Our responsibility to deliver price stability is unconditional.”
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/7
Having retraced 50-60% off their lows, US equities ↘️ hard on Powell’s speech
$SPX -4.05% (w) -2.4% (T)
$COMP -4.45% (w) +0.1% (T)
$IWM -2.9% (w) 0.7% (T)
Chart: $COMPQ failed to retrace 50% before ↘️
Having retraced 50-60% off their lows, US equities ↘️ hard on Powell’s speech
$SPX -4.05% (w) -2.4% (T)
$COMP -4.45% (w) +0.1% (T)
$IWM -2.9% (w) 0.7% (T)
Chart: $COMPQ failed to retrace 50% before ↘️
2a/7
Equity vol ↗️ and firmly in the 🪓🪣
$VIX 25.56 +4.96 pts
$VXN 31.72 +4.98 pts
$RVX 30.48 +5.14 pts
$VSTOXX +2.08 pts
$VXEEM 21.28 +1.85 pts
Chart: $VIX back > 25
Equity vol ↗️ and firmly in the 🪓🪣
$VIX 25.56 +4.96 pts
$VXN 31.72 +4.98 pts
$RVX 30.48 +5.14 pts
$VSTOXX +2.08 pts
$VXEEM 21.28 +1.85 pts
Chart: $VIX back > 25
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
1/9 🧵
Global Macro Review 08/21/2022
$UUP 🚀
$VIX ↗️
$TLT ↘️
$GLD ↘️
$EFA ↘️
$BNO ↘️
$DBA ↘️
An aberration? or a resumption of primary Trend = (T)
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
1/9 🧵
Global Macro Review 08/21/2022
$UUP 🚀
$VIX ↗️
$TLT ↘️
$GLD ↘️
$EFA ↘️
$BNO ↘️
$DBA ↘️
An aberration? or a resumption of primary Trend = (T)
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/9
🤴🏽 💵 aka the wrecking 🎳
$UUP +2.4% (w) +5.05% (T)
$FXF -1.75% (w) +1.45% (T)
$FXC -1.8% (w) -1.25% (T)
$FXE -2.2% (w) -5.15% (T)
$FXB -2.55% (w) -5.3% (T)
$FXY -2.5% (w) -6.7% (T)
$FXA -3.44% (w) -2.25% (T)
Chart: $USD with room to run
🤴🏽 💵 aka the wrecking 🎳
$UUP +2.4% (w) +5.05% (T)
$FXF -1.75% (w) +1.45% (T)
$FXC -1.8% (w) -1.25% (T)
$FXE -2.2% (w) -5.15% (T)
$FXB -2.55% (w) -5.3% (T)
$FXY -2.5% (w) -6.7% (T)
$FXA -3.44% (w) -2.25% (T)
Chart: $USD with room to run
2a/9
$EURUSD back to parity
$EURUSD back to parity
Hello Friday and the week to date!
$HYG -1.55%
$TLT -0.55%
$SPX +0.1%
$COMPQ -0.65%
$DAX -1.65%
$SSEC -0.6%
$NIKK +1.35%
$USD +1.94% ⬅️
$GBP -2.1%
$GOLD -2.7%
$WTIC -3.0%
$NATGAS +3.55%
$COPPER -1.25%
#Bitcoin -12.4% ⬅️
Let's dig into the pre #opex 🧮!
$HYG -1.55%
$TLT -0.55%
$SPX +0.1%
$COMPQ -0.65%
$DAX -1.65%
$SSEC -0.6%
$NIKK +1.35%
$USD +1.94% ⬅️
$GBP -2.1%
$GOLD -2.7%
$WTIC -3.0%
$NATGAS +3.55%
$COPPER -1.25%
#Bitcoin -12.4% ⬅️
Let's dig into the pre #opex 🧮!
Asia closed ↔️ to ↘️
$NIKK 28930 -0.05%
$SSEC 3258 -0.6%
$TWII 15409 +0.1%
$HSI 19772 +0.05%
$KOSPI 2493 -0.6%
$IDX 7172 -0.2%
Australia ↔️
$ASX 7114 unch
India ↘️
$BSE 59639 -1.1%
$NIKK 28930 -0.05%
$SSEC 3258 -0.6%
$TWII 15409 +0.1%
$HSI 19772 +0.05%
$KOSPI 2493 -0.6%
$IDX 7172 -0.2%
Australia ↔️
$ASX 7114 unch
India ↘️
$BSE 59639 -1.1%
Europe ↘️
$DAX 13558 -1.0%
$FTSE 7514 -0.35%
$CAC 6512 -0.7%
$AEX 772 -0.5%
$IBEX 8343 -1.05%
$MIB 22643 -1.5%
$SMI 11174 +0.05%
$MOEX 2185 -0.45% 🪆
$VSTOXX 23.54 🔺
$DAX range = 13535 - 13895 🐻
$DAX 13558 -1.0%
$FTSE 7514 -0.35%
$CAC 6512 -0.7%
$AEX 772 -0.5%
$IBEX 8343 -1.05%
$MIB 22643 -1.5%
$SMI 11174 +0.05%
$MOEX 2185 -0.45% 🪆
$VSTOXX 23.54 🔺
$DAX range = 13535 - 13895 🐻
Hello Friday!
China reporting -2.6% Q/Q growth on the back of Q2 🦠🔒🔻 and US retail sales 🛍️ on tap.
Let's dig into the 🧮!
China reporting -2.6% Q/Q growth on the back of Q2 🦠🔒🔻 and US retail sales 🛍️ on tap.
Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asian equities closed the week ↔️ with 🇨🇳↘️
$NIKK 26788 +0.55%
$SSEC 3228 -1.65% 🇨🇳
$TWII 14551 +0.8%
$HSI 20304 -2.15%
$KOSPI 2331 +0.35%
$IDX 6652 -0.55%
Australia ↘️
$ASX 6606 -0.7%
India ↗️
$BSE 53517 +0.2%
$NIKK 26788 +0.55%
$SSEC 3228 -1.65% 🇨🇳
$TWII 14551 +0.8%
$HSI 20304 -2.15%
$KOSPI 2331 +0.35%
$IDX 6652 -0.55%
Australia ↘️
$ASX 6606 -0.7%
India ↗️
$BSE 53517 +0.2%
Europe opens ↗️
$DAX 12738 +1.75%
$FTSE 7120 +1.15%
$CAC 5968 +0.9%
$AEX 669 +1.35%
$IBEX 7909 +1.35%
$MIB 20882 +1.6%
$SMI 10860 +0.55%
$MOEX 2057 -0.3% 🪆
$VTSOXX 31.01 🛗
$DAX range 12425 - 12925 🐻
$DAX 12738 +1.75%
$FTSE 7120 +1.15%
$CAC 5968 +0.9%
$AEX 669 +1.35%
$IBEX 7909 +1.35%
$MIB 20882 +1.6%
$SMI 10860 +0.55%
$MOEX 2057 -0.3% 🪆
$VTSOXX 31.01 🛗
$DAX range 12425 - 12925 🐻
#Eurosatory2022 | Interview du général Hervé Gomart par @Defense137 pour @AiretCosmos
"Les drones sont indispensables, ce n'est pas imaginable, en 2022, de mener des opérations sans drones." #Sahel #OPEX @armeedeterre
air-cosmos.com/article/eurosa…
"Les drones sont indispensables, ce n'est pas imaginable, en 2022, de mener des opérations sans drones." #Sahel #OPEX @armeedeterre
air-cosmos.com/article/eurosa…
"L'Armée de Terre va avoir de plus en plus besoin de monter en volume sa capacité de drones, car chaque groupe de combat, chaque peloton doit avoir cette capacité pour s'éclairer de quelques centaines de mètres." #Eurosatory2022
"Orion permettra d'identifier des faiblesses et montrer à des compétiteurs que la France peut engager une division, ce qu'on a pas su faire depuis 30 ans." @armeedeterre #Eurosatory2022
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global Macro Review
5/15/2022
1/10
30 Vol and strong $USD 💣 around the 🌍 with #crypto 💥 and $GOLD breaking Trend (T)
Bond ♉️s finally caught a 🗡️, but equity ♉️s - not so much, though the $DAX, $CAC and $SSEC diverged from $SPX
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
Global Macro Review
5/15/2022
1/10
30 Vol and strong $USD 💣 around the 🌍 with #crypto 💥 and $GOLD breaking Trend (T)
Bond ♉️s finally caught a 🗡️, but equity ♉️s - not so much, though the $DAX, $CAC and $SSEC diverged from $SPX
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/10
Equity vol came in for a second week but remains 🛗
$VIX 28.87 with Trend (T) @ 27.75
$VXN 37.71
$RVX 35.66
$VSOTXX 29.11
$VXEEM 28.52
Chart: $VIX - positive flows from weekly #OPEX pushed $SPX 2.4% on Friday.
Equity vol came in for a second week but remains 🛗
$VIX 28.87 with Trend (T) @ 27.75
$VXN 37.71
$RVX 35.66
$VSOTXX 29.11
$VXEEM 28.52
Chart: $VIX - positive flows from weekly #OPEX pushed $SPX 2.4% on Friday.
3/10
Were it not for positive #OPEX flows, 🇺🇸 equity prices would have been worse by 2-3% on the week
$SPX 2.4% (w) -8.95% (T)
$IWM -2.45% (w) -11.6% (T)
$COMPQ -2.8% (w) -14.4% (T)
Chart: $COMPQ 🔨 is -11.6% over (t) duration = 1-month
Were it not for positive #OPEX flows, 🇺🇸 equity prices would have been worse by 2-3% on the week
$SPX 2.4% (w) -8.95% (T)
$IWM -2.45% (w) -11.6% (T)
$COMPQ -2.8% (w) -14.4% (T)
Chart: $COMPQ 🔨 is -11.6% over (t) duration = 1-month
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global Macro Review - 4/10/2022
1/11
The 💦🍋 has begun as the #FOMC drains the 👊🥣
And they are coming after YOU dear investor
"'The Fed needs to 'inflict more losses' on the stock market in order to rein in soaring inflation.’”
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
Global Macro Review - 4/10/2022
1/11
The 💦🍋 has begun as the #FOMC drains the 👊🥣
And they are coming after YOU dear investor
"'The Fed needs to 'inflict more losses' on the stock market in order to rein in soaring inflation.’”
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/11
Realizing the Fed bid is no more, bonds headed for the ⛰️⛰️
10/2s steepened ↗️ to 18.6 BPS from #inversion the week earlier
MOVE 125.96 🛗🔺
Chart: $TNX with a new cycle high 2.72% - there’s no reason this cannot go to 5-6%
Realizing the Fed bid is no more, bonds headed for the ⛰️⛰️
10/2s steepened ↗️ to 18.6 BPS from #inversion the week earlier
MOVE 125.96 🛗🔺
Chart: $TNX with a new cycle high 2.72% - there’s no reason this cannot go to 5-6%
3/11
Bond ETFs go 'no bid' as the 🐻🐻 continue to roam
$TLT -5.5% (w) -12.05% (T) = 3 mos
$BNDD -5.45% (w) -2.2% (T)
$LQD -3.2% (w) -9.65% (T)
$HYG -2.1% (w) -6.55% (T)
$TIP -1.2% (w) -3.65% (T)
$IVOL +1.6% (w) -3.75% (T) ⬅️
Chart: Despite #inflation, $TIP no place to hide
Bond ETFs go 'no bid' as the 🐻🐻 continue to roam
$TLT -5.5% (w) -12.05% (T) = 3 mos
$BNDD -5.45% (w) -2.2% (T)
$LQD -3.2% (w) -9.65% (T)
$HYG -2.1% (w) -6.55% (T)
$TIP -1.2% (w) -3.65% (T)
$IVOL +1.6% (w) -3.75% (T) ⬅️
Chart: Despite #inflation, $TIP no place to hide
Hello Friday!
Week to date
$BTC -5.45%
$EUR -1.5%
$GOLD +0.75%
$USD +1.15%
$CAC -3.35%
$NIKK -2.8%
$COMPQ -2.55%
$KOPSI -1.6%
$GASO -4.2%
$WTIC -3.35%
$COFFEE -1.05%
$PLAT -3.1%
$COPPER +0.25%
$CORN +2.05%
$WHEAT +4.15%
$NATGAS +11.2%
$TNX +27.5 BPS
Let's dig into the 🧮!
Week to date
$BTC -5.45%
$EUR -1.5%
$GOLD +0.75%
$USD +1.15%
$CAC -3.35%
$NIKK -2.8%
$COMPQ -2.55%
$KOPSI -1.6%
$GASO -4.2%
$WTIC -3.35%
$COFFEE -1.05%
$PLAT -3.1%
$COPPER +0.25%
$CORN +2.05%
$WHEAT +4.15%
$NATGAS +11.2%
$TNX +27.5 BPS
Let's dig into the 🧮!
After a ↘️ week, Asia closed Friday ↗️
$NIKK 26986 +0.35%
$SSEC 3252 +0.45%
$TWII 17285 +0.6%
$HSI 21857 +0.2%
$KOSPI 2700 +0.15%
$IDX 7210 +1.15% ⬅️
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7478 +0.45%
India ↗️
$BSE 59444 +0.7%
$NIKK 26986 +0.35%
$SSEC 3252 +0.45%
$TWII 17285 +0.6%
$HSI 21857 +0.2%
$KOSPI 2700 +0.15%
$IDX 7210 +1.15% ⬅️
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7478 +0.45%
India ↗️
$BSE 59444 +0.7%
Europe catching a bid ↗️ into the weekend
$DAX 14321 +1.7%
$FTSE 7641 +1.2%
$CAC 6578 +1.8%
$AEX 727 +1.45%
$IBEX 8600 +1.55%
$MIB 24843 +2.2% ⬅️
$SMI 12465 +0.75%
$MOEX 2623 -0.5% 🪆
$VSTOXX 32.53
$DAX 14321 +1.7%
$FTSE 7641 +1.2%
$CAC 6578 +1.8%
$AEX 727 +1.45%
$IBEX 8600 +1.55%
$MIB 24843 +2.2% ⬅️
$SMI 12465 +0.75%
$MOEX 2623 -0.5% 🪆
$VSTOXX 32.53
Hello Monday!
Post #opex
Post #NFP
With #PMIs and 3 Fed speakers beginning with Brainard on Tuesday and Bullard 🦅 on Thursday, today may be the quietest day of the week.
Let's dig into the 🧮!
Post #opex
Post #NFP
With #PMIs and 3 Fed speakers beginning with Brainard on Tuesday and Bullard 🦅 on Thursday, today may be the quietest day of the week.
Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asia started the week 💪↗️
$NIKK 27736 +0.25%
$SSEC 3283 +0.95%
$TWII 17626 -0.4% 🔻
$HSI 22509 +2.15% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2758 +0.65%
$IDX 7116 +0.55%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7514 +0.25%
India 💪↗️
$BSE 60408 +1.9%
Good move to cover your 🩳
$NIKK 27736 +0.25%
$SSEC 3283 +0.95%
$TWII 17626 -0.4% 🔻
$HSI 22509 +2.15% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2758 +0.65%
$IDX 7116 +0.55%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7514 +0.25%
India 💪↗️
$BSE 60408 +1.9%
Good move to cover your 🩳
Europe trading ↔️ at the open
$DAX 14397 -0.35%
$FTSE 7554 +0.2%
$CAC 6677 -0.1%
$AEX 732 +0.6%
$IBEX 25127 -0.15%
$MIB 25132 -0.1%
$SMI 12288 +0.9% ⬅️
$MOEX 2773 +0.5% 🪆
$VSTOXX 28.50
$DAX 14397 -0.35%
$FTSE 7554 +0.2%
$CAC 6677 -0.1%
$AEX 732 +0.6%
$IBEX 25127 -0.15%
$MIB 25132 -0.1%
$SMI 12288 +0.9% ⬅️
$MOEX 2773 +0.5% 🪆
$VSTOXX 28.50
