Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #NAFOWeather
Most recents (21)
1/ Its been 2 weeks since the Russians destroyed the #KakhovkaHPP dam. What will the Dnipro River look like when it returns to its pre-reservoir (before 1955) position? Where are the possible crossing locations? How might UAF exploit these crossing opportunities? A #NAFOWeather🧵
3/ The receding Dnipro RIver has revealed once submerged RF defenses including mines placed along the over 200 km of #KakhovkaReservoir left bank coastline. 
4/ During WW2, the German Nazi and Red Army forces built several temporary bridges across the Dnipro River between Kakhovka and Zaporizhzhia to establish and defend bridgeheads.
Battle for the Ore Deposits: The Red Army vs. Nazi Germany
https://t.co/uVR5XRz6qtwarfarehistorynetwork.com/article/battle…
Battle for the Ore Deposits: The Red Army vs. Nazi Germany
https://t.co/uVR5XRz6qtwarfarehistorynetwork.com/article/battle…
1/ Where is the old stream bed of the Konka River at Enerhodar referenced by @energoatom_ua? A #NAFOWeather 🧵
"The Konka River, which now runs along the cooling pond of the ZNPP and was under the Kakhov Reservoir as an underwater current, separated into its historical channel."
"The Konka River, which now runs along the cooling pond of the ZNPP and was under the Kakhov Reservoir as an underwater current, separated into its historical channel."
1/ This thread rebuts claims made by Mikael "Vatnikersson" Valterson against @Ukrhydroenergo, saying Ukraine's state dam operator, "was the original culprit" in destroying the #KakhovkaHPP and exacerbating dam destruction flooding. A #NAFOWeather 🧵
2/ As "Readers" pointed out, the video Vatnikersson used to "prove" Ukraine sent water downstream to #KakhovkaHPP was almost 2 months old. The video proves nothing. Vatnikersson made no attempt to clarify the temporal discrepancy; the tweet is still posted.
3/ Vatnikersson made several allegations in his tweet that accused Ukraine of destroying its own dam as well as causing post-dam failure flooding. I will unpack these allegations.
1/ Soil moisture update: While #MudSeason is "officially over", locally heavy rain can and will degrade trafficability for periods of time. A #NAFOWeather 🧵
2/ BLUF: Updated soil moisture/trafficability matrix similar to 25 April forecast with a 1 month delay in seasonal drying conditions due to above average April rain. Last week of May had several thunderstorm days & locally heavy rain but overall dry conditions since May 1st.
3/ As stated in previous tweet, some locations had heavy rain including eastern Kherson/northwest Zaporizhzhia, northeast Donetsk and southern Luhansk in the last week of May. However, June has been mostly rain free.
#NAFOWeather 🧵
1/ Weather week in review (23-29 May 2023): Widespread thunderstorms provided significant rain near the Line of Conflict (LoC), with a range of 15-90 mm in the south and 30-100 mm in the east and north.
1/ Weather week in review (23-29 May 2023): Widespread thunderstorms provided significant rain near the Line of Conflict (LoC), with a range of 15-90 mm in the south and 30-100 mm in the east and north.
2/ Rainfall from thunderstorms was not uniform with some locations close to the LoC receiving weekly peak total rainfall 80-105 mm including Oleshky, Vuhledar, Bakhmut and Raihorodka.
3/ Daily peak rainfall totals from thunderstorms max'ed out at 30-60 mm per day causing local flooding as reported by social media validating satellite precipitation accumulation analysis.
1. Soil Moisture Update: 15 May 2023, a #NAFOWeather🧵
I'm "officially" declaring #MudSeason over based on limited rainfall since May 1st & marginal rain forecast in the next 2 weeks. Soil is dry enough to support most vehicles across most of the LoC.
I'm "officially" declaring #MudSeason over based on limited rainfall since May 1st & marginal rain forecast in the next 2 weeks. Soil is dry enough to support most vehicles across most of the LoC.
2. Recent Rainfall (past 2 weeks): Donetsk and Luhansk received about 5-15 mm rain of on May 8-9, otherwise, a dry 2 weeks.
3. Soil Moisture Change (past 2 weeks): There has been a general soil drying trend from 30 April to 14 May with least moisture in the south and greatest soil moisture in Donetsk.
1. Soil Moisture #MudSeason Update: 8 May 2023
#NAFOWeather 🧵
The past 7 days have been dry (yay!) along the Line of Conflict (LoC) after April's significant rainfall.
#NAFOWeather 🧵
The past 7 days have been dry (yay!) along the Line of Conflict (LoC) after April's significant rainfall.
2. ECMWF model rainfall forecast for the next week shows 5-20 mm totals with largest rain amounts in southeast Donetsk and Luhansk. While ECMWF has been annoying me with alternating high/low rain predictions, it seems to be consistent the past couple model runs.
3. Impact to Soil Moisture and Trafficability: As you might expect, greatest trafficability degradation is in Donetsk/Luhansk while the impact of rainfall to trafficability is minimal in the south (Kherson/Zaporizhzhia). The longer term drying trend resumes after May 11. /end
1. Ruschist operation of Kakhovka HPP (K-HPP) dam has been reckless. Kakhovka Reservoir (KR) water level has alternated from record low to record high in just 3 months. Loop (6 FEB-6 MAY 2023) shows sand bars receding with rising KR water. #NAFOWeather🧵
2. These images are of the K-HPP from Left: 6 FEB, and Right: 6 MAY 2023 (enhanced from data included in loop).
3. North Crimean Canal intake, Left 20 FEB 2023 Right 6 May 2023: Latest image show water gushing through NCC intake gate at Tavrisk as record KR level is pushing water through gravity fed NCC at high rates.
1. Russians are once again attempting to frighten residents in occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia on the left bank of Kakhovka Reservoir into evacuating. This is part of a larger information operation ahead of the Ukrainian offensive. A #NAFOWeather 🧵
2. TASS reported (some western media repeated) that the Kakhovka HPP dam could burst and this would flood Zaporizhzhia NPP and surrounding communities. This is pure rubbish. If the Kakhovka HPP dam burst, Kakhovka Reservoir would dramatically LOWER as these location are upstream.
3. Russian propaganda uses facts, often reported by the west, with other false statements to create an environment of fear and uncertainty. It is TRUE Kakhovka Reservoir is at record high levels and the K-HPP controls water discharge for K reservoir.
2. Soil moisture is one element of the water balance / hydrologic cycle which includes precipitation, terrain, vegetation state, and atmosphere (temperature, humidity, winds, sunshine/solar radiation).
3. Rate of soil moisture changes over time:
Over Weeks to Months - Controlled by vegetation growth
Cite: Reference evapotranspiration in water requirement: Theory, concepts, and methods of estimation, Handbook of Hydroinformatics, 2023
sciencedirect.com/book/978012821…
Over Weeks to Months - Controlled by vegetation growth
Cite: Reference evapotranspiration in water requirement: Theory, concepts, and methods of estimation, Handbook of Hydroinformatics, 2023
sciencedirect.com/book/978012821…
1/ It has been almost a month since I provided a #MudSeason trafficability forecast. My assumption of a "normal" spring rainfall & improving trafficability were way too optimistic as it has rained Every. Damn. Day. since late March 2023. A #NAFOWeather 🧵
2/ #BLUF The trafficability forecast (below) is based on current and predicted rainfall which are well above normal for near the Line of Conflict (LoC). In general, trafficability is delayed about 1 month versus normal.
3/ Some input on #MudSeason from authoritative sources: @DefenceHQ "severe mud is highly likely slowing operations vor both sides" but "conditions can be expected to improve in the coming weeks".
1/ Heavy Precipitation/Snowfall *ALERT*
Wednesday Evening (MAR 29) to Friday Morning (MAR 31)
* Heavy snow likely in Luhansk and Donetsk
* Drone operations will be severely restricted
* Trafficability will be severely restricted
* Rising water will make creeks dangerous to ford
Wednesday Evening (MAR 29) to Friday Morning (MAR 31)
* Heavy snow likely in Luhansk and Donetsk
* Drone operations will be severely restricted
* Trafficability will be severely restricted
* Rising water will make creeks dangerous to ford
2/ 10 Day Forecast of weather for Bakhmut and Kreminna shows rate of precipitation, snowfall, & snow depth Thursday-Friday. Additional rainfall next WED. Most snow will melt by Saturday. Melting snow will make trafficability extremely difficult & rising creeks impassable.
3/ Comparing major global weather models, but agree on extreme precipitation potential next 72 hours (50-75 mm), but position of maxima varies by about 100 km which is relevant to the line of conflict.
1/ Back on March 2, 2023, @DefenceHQ declared it to be #MudSeason, Ukrainian as ‘bezdorizhzhia’, limiting cross country movement (CCM)/trafficability. This #NAFOWeather🧵 looks at when soil will dry sufficiently to support offensive operations.
2/ Most of the techniques referenced in the analysis originate from the #NATO Reference Mobility Model (NRMM). Documents describing the NRMM are public domain.
Cite: slideshare.net/QuestSystems/a…
Cite: slideshare.net/QuestSystems/a…
3/ Processes which control vehicle trafficability are ground pressure exerted by vehicles and strength of soil. As soil dries, it can support a greater load. In addition to military applications, agriculture and land managers assess soil strength to minimize impact to vegetation.
Teil 2 Wichtig!! Satellitenbilder/Daten von @NPR
zeigen, dass 🇷🇺🗑️ein riesiges Reservoir im Süden der 🇺🇦trockenlegt. Auf dem Spiel steht Trinkwasser für mehr als 100.000 Menschen, die gesamte landwirtschaftliche Produktion, Umweltschäden in Milliardenhöhe + die Sicherheit in… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
zeigen, dass 🇷🇺🗑️ein riesiges Reservoir im Süden der 🇺🇦trockenlegt. Auf dem Spiel steht Trinkwasser für mehr als 100.000 Menschen, die gesamte landwirtschaftliche Produktion, Umweltschäden in Milliardenhöhe + die Sicherheit in… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
@NPR Teil 1 noch einmal zum Nachlesen.
@NPR 1/ Das Wasserkraftwerk Kakhovka ist der sechste (und letzte) Staudamm am Fluss Dnipro. Der Damm dient der Bereitstellung von Wasser für Bewässerung, Trinkwasser, Industrie und Schifffahrt. Das K-HKW unterhält das Kakhovka-Reservoir auf einer Höhe von 16 m über dem Meeresspiegel,… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
FEB 10, 2023: #NAFO #NAFOWeather next 24 hours- Snow (west/north). Partly-Mostly Cloudy (east/south). Low Temp -8C to -6C, Wind from southwest at 3-7 m/s
SUN-MON (FEB 12-14) Occasional Light Snow. Low Temp -6C to -1C
TUE (FEB 14) Mostly Cloudy. Low Temp -7C to -3C
SUN-MON (FEB 12-14) Occasional Light Snow. Low Temp -6C to -1C
TUE (FEB 14) Mostly Cloudy. Low Temp -7C to -3C
FEB 11, 2023: #NAFO #NAFOWeather next 24 hours- Snow (north/east) AM. Mostly Cloudy (west/south). Low Temp -6C to -3C Wind from west at 6-12 m/s
MON (FEB 13) Mostly Cloudy. Low Temp -8C to -5C
TUE (FEB 14) Snow. Low Temp -3C to -1C
WED-FRI (FEB 15-17). Cloudy. Low Temp -9C to -4C
MON (FEB 13) Mostly Cloudy. Low Temp -8C to -5C
TUE (FEB 14) Snow. Low Temp -3C to -1C
WED-FRI (FEB 15-17). Cloudy. Low Temp -9C to -4C
FEB 12, 2023: #NAFO #NAFOWeather next 24 hours- Light Snow (north/east). Low Temp -8C to -5C Wind from west at 5-12 m/s
TUE-WED (FEB 14-15) Snow (east/north/south). Low Temp -6C to -1C
THU (FEB 16) Cloudy. Low Temp -9C to -5C
FRI (FEB 17) Mix (west). Low Temp -9C to -4C
TUE-WED (FEB 14-15) Snow (east/north/south). Low Temp -6C to -1C
THU (FEB 16) Cloudy. Low Temp -9C to -5C
FRI (FEB 17) Mix (west). Low Temp -9C to -4C
1/ Who is operating the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (K-HPP)? What have K-HPP operator done that has caused the Kakhovka Reservoir to drop to 30 year low levels risking drinking water for millions and irrigation for 250 million hectares? A #NAFOWeather 🧵
2/ Kakhovka HPP is the 6th (and final) dam on the Dnipro River. The purpose of the dam is to provide water for irrigation, drinking, industry, shipping. K-HPP maintains Kakhovka Reservoir at 16m above MSL providing water for irrigation canals (e.g. NCC) & the Zaporizhzhia NPP.
3/ Who is operating the Kakhovka HPP?
Russians have occupied & operated the K-HPP since about March 1, 2022. Initially, the Ukrainian dam operator, @Ukrhydroenergo, provided technical assistance to Russian operators, but competent staff technical advise ceased after spring 2022.
Russians have occupied & operated the K-HPP since about March 1, 2022. Initially, the Ukrainian dam operator, @Ukrhydroenergo, provided technical assistance to Russian operators, but competent staff technical advise ceased after spring 2022.
1/ Using dam operations (water realease) data to assess the importance of the Kakhovka HPP (K-HPP) dam and reservoir and North Crimean Canal to Russian political and military priorities, a #NAFOWeather🧵
2/ It has been almost a year since the (most recent) Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russian propaganda tries to obscure true motivations for its invasion. Looking back helps separate Russian stated "initial war aims" mis-information (below) from true objectives.
3/ On the 8th anniversary of Crimea's occupation (18 MAR 2022) Putin said "These were essential things such as gas and power supply, utility infrastructure, restoring the road network, and construction of new roads, motorways and bridges” but also said “There is more to it."
JAN 7, 2023: #NAFO #NAFOWeather next 24 hours-Snow (west) otherwise Dry, Low Temps -15C to -9C, Winds from the east at 2-6 m/s
MON-THU (JAN 9-12) Cold, low temps -5C (south) to -15C (north/east). Dry. Wind Chill: -20C to -15C
FRI (JAN 13) Mostly Cloudy, low temps -8C to -3C
MON-THU (JAN 9-12) Cold, low temps -5C (south) to -15C (north/east). Dry. Wind Chill: -20C to -15C
FRI (JAN 13) Mostly Cloudy, low temps -8C to -3C
JAN 8, 2023: #NAFO #NAFOWeather next 24 hours-Rain (west), Snow (north), Low Temps -14C to -9C, Winds from southeast at 4-10 m/s
TUE-THU (JAN 19-12) Cold, Mostly Cloudy, low temps -5C (south) to -15C (north/east). Dry (east/south)
FRI-SAT (JAN 13-14) Cloudy, low temps -10C to -3C
TUE-THU (JAN 19-12) Cold, Mostly Cloudy, low temps -5C (south) to -15C (north/east). Dry (east/south)
FRI-SAT (JAN 13-14) Cloudy, low temps -10C to -3C
JAN 9, 2023: #NAFO #NAFOWeather next 24 hours-Rain (west), Snow (north), Low Temps -14C to -6C, Winds from east at 7-14 m/s
TUE-FRI (JAN 11-13) Cold, Mostly Cloudy, low temps -4C (south) to -15C (north/east). Dry (east/south)
SAT-SUN (JAN 14-15) Mix/Snow, low temps -7C to 0C
TUE-FRI (JAN 11-13) Cold, Mostly Cloudy, low temps -4C (south) to -15C (north/east). Dry (east/south)
SAT-SUN (JAN 14-15) Mix/Snow, low temps -7C to 0C
December 22, 2022: #NAFO #NAFOWeather next 24 hours-Cloudy, Low Temps -1C to 1C, winds from southeast 3-6 m/s
SAT DEC 24) Slow warming (>0C), Cloudy
SUN-WED (DEC 25-28) Cloudy, periods of rain, relatively warm, temps near or above 0C
SAT DEC 24) Slow warming (>0C), Cloudy
SUN-WED (DEC 25-28) Cloudy, periods of rain, relatively warm, temps near or above 0C
December 23, 2022: #NAFO #NAFOWeather next 24 hours-Cloudy, Low Temps 0C (northeast) to 3C (south), winds from southeast 3-5 m/s
SUN-WED (DEC 25-28) Cloudy, periods of rain, relatively warm, temps near or above 0C
THU (DEC 29) Mostly Cloudy, temps near 0C
SUN-WED (DEC 25-28) Cloudy, periods of rain, relatively warm, temps near or above 0C
THU (DEC 29) Mostly Cloudy, temps near 0C
December 24, 2022: #NAFO #NAFOWeather next 24 hours-Cloudy, Rain (south), Low Temps 1C (northeast) to 4C (south), winds from east 2-5 m/s
SUN-WED (DEC 26-28) Cloudy, periods of rain, relatively warm, temps near or above 0C
THU-FRI (DEC 29-30) Mostly Cloudy, temps near 0C
SUN-WED (DEC 26-28) Cloudy, periods of rain, relatively warm, temps near or above 0C
THU-FRI (DEC 29-30) Mostly Cloudy, temps near 0C
On November 11, 2022, the Russians exploded charges on the 3 dam gates on the north side (right bank) of the Kakhovka HPP Dam along with the road and railroad deck over the dam. #NAFOWeather
What is the Russian intention? Minimally, to stop UAF pursuit of the retreating Russian troops. Russians have also destroyed the Kherson energy infrastructure as part of their retreat. This is part of a systemic plan to cripple the Ukrainian economy.
But clearly, draining the Kakhovka dam may not be a Russian priority as it feeds the Crimean Canal which provides water to Crimea. In fact, restarting the flow of water was one of the first priorities after capturing the canal
nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/c…
nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/c…
#NAFO #NAFOWeather next 24 hours - No rain, partly cloudy, low temperature 2-8C, winds from north-northeast 5-10 mph
#NAFO #NAFOWeather next 24 hours - No rain, mostly cloudy, low temperature 0C to 5C*, winds from northeast at 5-20km/h
* Alert: First freezing temperatures of winter!
* Alert: First freezing temperatures of winter!
